patrick.net

Haha, turns out what you think is your "fresh and independend thoughts" wrt "peace now, now, now" are not exactly fresh or independent:

It is clear that some politicians and media outlets have been promoting a "conflict-freezing" narrative, that bears a striking resemblance to the approach outlined in Russian doctrinal thought.

To delve into it, let's look at an actual professional analysis - the report formulated by The Center for Naval Analyses under the US government contract, which outlines Russian military strategy

In 2021, a team of analysts led by
@KofmanMichael
released a document called "Russian Military Strategy: Core Tenets and Operational Concepts". This paper explores the core tenets of Russian military strategy. The paper states that Russian military strategy reflects that Russia expects to be the militarily inferior party in a regional or large-scale war against a technologically superior adversary.

Of particular relevance to our discussion is this excerpt: "The overall task for Russian military strategy is to prevent an opponent from achieving a decisive outcome during the initial period of war, force them into a conflict of attrition, and inflict costs on their military and economic infrastructure such that they will seek war termination on acceptable terms."

While originally designed for scenarios against a larger adversary like NATO, the core tenet of this strategy applies to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The objective is to hinder Ukraine from achieving decisive outcomes, push Ukraine into attrition, and impose costs on their military and economic infrastructure, compelling them to seek war termination on terms favorable to Russia.

Now, let's step back and examine the strategic objectives of both countries:

- Russia aimed to replace the Ukrainian government, install a puppet regime, and gain control over Ukrainian territory. Failing to achieve these goals, Russia has had to adjust its objectives. Currently, the likelihood of achieving initial goals appears unrealistic.

- Ukraine's strategic goals focus on liberating all its territories and reverting to internationally recognized borders. While Russia struggles to achieve its strategic goals, it retains the ability to thwart Ukraine's strategic goals, evident in events during the counter-offensive in the summer and fall of 2023.

This understanding is crucial. Returning to the document, let's reiterate: "The goal is to prevent the adversary from achieving a decisive outcome, force them into a conflict of attrition, and inflict costs on their military and economic infrastructure such that they will seek war termination on acceptable terms."

In March 2019 at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, General Gerasimov acknowledged the "emergence of new spheres of confrontation in modern conflicts and methods of warfare increasingly shift towards the integrated application of political, economic, informational, and other nonmilitary measures, realized with reliance on military force."

Russian theorists perceive information warfare as a potent tool capable of disrupting an opponent's command and control, deceiving adversaries, fostering instability within enemy borders, and demoralizing both civilian populations and military forces to the extent that they lose the will to resist.

Let's shift our focus from this research paper once more

This approach is not novel. The strategy of using "frozen conflicts" as a military and political tool has been employed by Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The invasion of Moldova by Russian forces and the establishment of the so-called "Transnistria," which persists to this day in Moldova, serves as an example. Russia utilizes this entity to exert influence on Moldova and obstruct Eurointegration processes. This same strategy unfolded in Georgia and later in Ukraine.

When Ukraine opted not to engage with Russia in 2014 during the occupation of Crimea, the so-called "de-escalation" only led to a further invasion of Donetsk oblast by a group of russian operatives led by Girkin (Strelkov).
The Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015 did not yield results; instead, they were followed by a russian invasion of Ukraine. Adhering to this pattern, now more explicitly outlined in Russian military doctrine, there are no signs that Russia is inclined to abandon or alter this course.
Therefore, any calls for a "frozen conflict" merely play into the achievement of military and political goals outlined in Russian military thought and assist Russia in preparing for the next phase.

In conclusion, it's apt to quote renowned military theorist Carl von Clausewitz: "The aggressor is always peace-loving, he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1722634361584193643

PS. BTW, the Southern Hamas is kinda using the same strategy as their Northern brother: first attack their neighbor and then cry for "ceasfires" and "humanitarian pauses"
in order to stave off their defeat. Many "independent thinkers" are falling for that one too. So don't be too harsh on Jane Fonda - I bet the bimbo was proud to be an independent thinker too. :D

The only one crying for a cease fire right now are the folks in DC.

PumpingRedheads says

The only one crying for a cease fire right now are the folks in DC.

Hamas started crying for it almost immediately, which fits the pattern to a tee. The fact that some cunts in DC has joined them means that the strategy works. And why wouldn't it - it worked many times before.

WTF is this? A substitute for IAD?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1722660865705423197

RWSGFY says

Hamas started crying for it almost immediately, which fits the pattern to a tee. The

Russia is not asking for a cease fire. DC is now pushing for it because Ukey is fucked.

Hamas has nothing to do with it, too.

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1723257442342150278

When MSM puts Ukraine in the blame barrel, you know it's time for the partition.

Ceffer says

When MSM puts Ukraine in the blame barrel, you know it's time for the partition.

DC can't admit SEAL teams did this or we would be in an open state of war with Russia.

Patrick says

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1723257442342150278

Not sure these images are real. Could be computer generated.

Patrick says

Not sure these images are real. Could be computer generated.

It's real footage. But look at all the green grass and flowers. This is the same recycled Russian footage from this Spring when the Russians first stopped a big Ukrainian counter attack using Bradleys and Leopards.

Ever since and all Summer long, Ukraine has been much more cautious conserving lives by moving slower.

Whereas, Russia has gone bonkers in the last 2 months throwing tens of thousands into the meat grinder trying to take Adiivka.

socal2 says

Whereas, Russia has gone bonkers in the last 2 months throwing tens of thousands into the meat grinder trying to take Adiivka.

They have not thrown tens of thousands trying to take Adviivka.

That's all Ukey propaganda bullshit.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-reckoning

What they have been doing is surrounding it to cut it off from the Ukraine military and supplies. And they have not lost tens of thousands doing so.

Fake News from The Washington Post: "Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack" https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

This is bunk. The United States blew up the Nord Stream pipeline and this according to Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland.

See Who Blew Up Nord Stream Pipelines? https://youtu.be/NSZyKYitC3M?t=84

It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.

^^^ The gaslighting dam has broken at WSJ ^^^

Once again, kiddies....

> Russian victory is impossible (Ukey Nazi Fluffers are still here)
> Russian victory unlikely
> Russia cannot be allowed to win
> Russia is winning but at what cost?
> Russian victory was inevitable (you are here, WSJ is too but trying to spin it)
> Ukraine was a corrupt hellhole anyway (you are actually here....you always were)

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/the-heisenberg-effect-friday-november

... For two years, the Journal has resolutely promised that Russia would crumble under Ukrainians’ fierce courage, dissolve under international sanctions, implode due to a lengthy list of allegedly-fatal Putin health problems (six different types of cancer, and counting), wither under a penetrating and glorious Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive, and be wrestled to the bargaining table, where the former communist empire would be forced to cough up all its annexed territories and the Crimean peninsula to boot.

But um, nope. None of that happened. Not even close. It’s more like the reverse opposite.

Joining Time and NBC, the Wall Street Journal expressed plain pessimism over Ukraine’s plunging prospects:

Putin does not feel any pressure to end the war or worry about his ability to sustain it more or less indefinitely. As winter approaches, the Russian army has mounted a limited ground offensive of its own and surely will expand missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, power plants, industrial sites and other critical infrastructure. ...

Oh. One more question. Since it’s now suddenly “magical thinking” to believe Ukraine can beat Russia, can we get our hundreds of billions of dollars back? Some of us knew it was magical thinking to start with and would like a refund.

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/leaving-blobtopia/

Our special event in Ukraine is going so poorly that the very Director of the CIA, William Burns, paid a not-so-secret call on President Zelensky Wednesday. Usually, this sort of call from one polity to another is performed by diplomats. How many of you noticed that Mr. Burns is not a diplomat? Rather, he is the blob’s consigliere, the very guy you don’t want to show up at your door with a message. You might wake up tomorrow with a horse’s severed head under the sheets. Or maybe his message is, we’ve got a nice cozy villa for you down in sunny Tristan da Cunha….

That war is a lost cause, and the cause was extremely stupid in the first place. Do you even remember what it was? I’ll tell you: to prod Russia into destroying itself. Oh? But why? Because, you know . . . Russia (and Trump!). There is your blob logic. Cost us something like $150 billion, a large part of that distributed among Mr. Zelensky’s circle while he sacrificed a whole generation of his country’s young men to Russian artillery fire and leaves what’s left of his sad-ass land an economic basket-case.

Money and weapons sent to Ukraine in context.

Best ROI we have ever gotten out of our bloated military budget. Russia's military has been ground down significantly with no easy way to build back up.

Russia would get absolutely smoked fighting a conventional battle against the US or NATO that has advanced airpower.

socal2 says

Best ROI we have ever gotten out of our bloated military budget.

How so? We drew down our reserve stocks so that Israel can't be adequately supported. It has caused tensions to rise between North and South Korea. And Russia is stronger than it was two years ago.

And lots and lots and lots of Ukeys died that didn't have to.

But above all, we spent $$$ that should have never been spent. Comparing it to other things that should also have never been spent is saying 'two wrongs makes a right'.

Oh, and Ukraine is fucked. FUCKED. It was already a demographic disaster before the war. Now it is totally FUBAR.

It has no economy anymore. Everything is being propped up on NATO life support. Pensions, health care, etc. All of it.

You call that best ROI?

socal2 says

Russia would get absolutely smoked fighting a conventional battle against the US or NATO that has advanced airpower.

That's why they won't fight a conventional ear.

PumpingRedheads says

And Russia is stronger than it was two years ago.

Just laughable.

Russia has lost its top Generals, best armor, Crimean Navy bases, Helicopter squadrons.......not to mention all of Wagner and hundreds of thousands of human casualties. Even the most conservative Russian military casualty estimate is appallingly high.

Over 300,000 smart Russians fled the country before the war too.

Russia has half the population of the US and is shrinking fast. This is not WWII with an unending supply of peasants for the meat grinder. Russia can't keep up this level of loss for long.

LOL! Propagandist Ukraine hold outs are going to be like that Japanese soldier in WWII on the Pacific atoll island who survived for decades and thought that the war was still going on.

Ukraine is heading for partition, every country is telling Zelensky to cash it in, and it's still "Ukraine is winning bigly! The Russians are defeated and don't know it!" Where is the Kool Aide coming from?

socal2 says

Just laughable.

Russia has lost its top Generals, best armor, Crimean Navy bases, Helicopter squadrons.......not to mention all of Wagner and hundreds of thousands of human casualties. Even the most conservative Russian military casualty estimate is appallingly high.

And yer, they are still winning.

socal2 says

Over 300,000 smart Russians fled the country before the war too.

How many Ukeys fled? Millions.

socal2 says

Russia has half the population of the US and is shrinking fast

So what? Ukey had 40 million people on 1992. Now only 20 million and almost all men of reproductive age killed off.

Russia has hundreds of thousands of men mobilized. US? 200.000 at best?

Russia does not need a Crimean Navy to fight a land war.

socal2 says

Russia can't keep up this level of loss for long.

Yes, they can. Better than we can and way better than Ukey Nazi Land can.

You just post internet BS crap and don't expect to be called out for it.

Ceffer says

Ukraine is heading for partition, every country is telling Zelensky to cash it in, and it's still "Ukraine is winning bigly! The Russians are defeated and don't know it!" Where is the Kool Aide coming from?

Not logic or fact based, that's for sure. It's all about hatred for Russia with these Ukey Nazi Fluffers. That's it.

It's called 'The Ukraine War' but notice how little they talk about Ukraine?

Or absolutely not at all?

Russia is going to collapse? Eventually, just not now and not in this war.

Russia is producing T-90 tanks in measurable numbers now. Are we producing comparatively same numbers? No. Artillery shells? West can't produce shit. And Ukey Nazis don't have anyone to use them anyway.

Ukraine produces nothing. And now they are throwing old men and women at the front lines in desperation w/o any training.

Sanctions haven't done shit but harm us with mineral and energy shortages.

But...

PumpingRedheads says

But above all, we spent $$$ that should have never been spent. Comparing it to other things that should also have never been spent is saying 'two wrongs makes a right'.

Many thousands have died needlessly in the unnecessary, unwinnable, and increasingly unaffordable war in Ukraine. The financial assistance and energy subsidies the war has cost Europe and the United States totals more than the annual GDP of Maryland. This at a time when America's own national debt is already 120 percent of our GDP. These costs might have been worth paying if Ukraine were a democracy, but it is not.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sure-doesnt-look-like-democracy-anymore-opinion-1844799

Ouch! The Ukey Nazi Fluffers don't even have the Media in their side anymore!

Russia surrendering unconditionally to Ukraine! The chicken bones are cast! Shoigu trembling with fear and despair. "We know when we are beat, and we beg Zelensky's mercy. We will grant him 100,000 Slavs to murder at will, and enslave their women and process their children for organs and blood."

https://t.me/WW3INFO/28587

LOL! Well, there's still that warehouse full of primo adrenochrome and cocaine to attract some Hollywood whore celebrities. Maybe that will fix all this fine mess you've gotten into. Haven't reached that quota of dead Slavs for the KMaf Nazis, yet?

https://t.me/gatewaypunditofficial/39007

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/heroic-officer-harper-saturday-november

I’m happy to report that the Biden Sanctions Program is going great. Russia should be surrendering any day n… oh, wait. This week, Bloomberg ran a story headlined, “Russia’s Cash Inflow Gains Momentum as Oil Exports Recover.” Apparently Russia is on track to hit a $75 billion-dollar trade surplus this year, which Bloomberg characterized as a “flood of cash” into the heavily-sanctioned nation.

Patrick says

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/heroic-officer-harper-saturday-november

I’m happy to report that the Biden Sanctions Program is going great. Russia should be surrendering any day n… oh, wait. This week, Bloomberg ran a story headlined, “Russia’s Cash Inflow Gains Momentum as Oil Exports Recover.” Apparently Russia is on track to hit a $75 billion-dollar trade surplus this year, which Bloomberg characterized as a “flood of cash” into the heavily-sanctioned nation.

This right here is proof positive that the rants of the Ukey Nazi Fluffers are 100% bullshit and always were.

Personally, I think it's entertaining to go back and read some of the 'Russia is losing' comments here and from the corporate media from around the world.

Here's one such example from an Australian news source regarding the much vaunted Ukraine 'spring offensive,' which turned out to be a monumental bust.

What is Ukraine waiting for before beginning the much-anticipated 'spring offensive'?

(Posted Fri 12 May 2023 at 3:52pmFriday 12 May 2023 at 3:52pm, updated Sat 13 May 2023 at 12:43am)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-13/when-is-ukraine-spring-counteroffensive-coming/102317228

PS: the video posted in the article entitled "The Russians are in trouble": Mick Ryan predicts outcome of Ukrainian offensive is particularly comical, being that the 'expert' got just about everything wrong.

socal2 says

Russia can't keep up this level of loss for long.

ROFL! But Ukraine can!!

Ceffer says

"Ukraine is winning bigly! The Russians are defeated and don't know it!" Where is the Kool Aide coming from?

It's coming from the same evil people that orchestrated the disastrous war$ in Iraq and Afghanistan.

socal2 says

Russia can't keep up this level of loss for long.

What loss? They are outproducing the West big time. They are killing Ukeys 8:1 from fixed positions.

All your bullshit that makes you think otherwise is from Ukey propaganda 'sources'.

Even the captured propaganda fluffer MSM have been instructed to reverse engines. Guess the subscribers to the propaganda will have to start writing their own fantasies.

RayAmerica says

Personally, I think it's entertaining to go back and read some of the 'Russia is losing' comments here and from the corporate media from around the world.

Not as funny as reading all the pro Russian garbage by you and others making CONFIDENT claims of Ukraine's imminent fall.

Yet here we are nearing 2 years into Russia's total cockup and they will still have less Ukrainian land under control then they had the first week of their invasion.

The_Deplorable says

How can that be? They all die from myocarditis?

Because socal2 is spinning that the Russians can't be responsible!

CIA's Burns & SecDef Austin In Separate 'Urgent' Trips To Ukraine As War Effort Implodes https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cias-burns-secdef-austin-separate-urgent-trips-ukraine-war-effort-implodes

socal2 says

Not as funny as reading all the pro Russian garbage by you and others making CONFIDENT claims of Ukraine's imminent fall.

We said that Ukey Nazi Land would lose this war. All that requires is them not being able to a) re-secure their lost territory and b) not having their manpower capacity attritted to fucking hell.

Whether Moscow invades and conquers the rest of it is ephemeral to the above.

Ukraine is fucked either way simply because of their war accelerated demographic disaster and destroyed production capacity.

socal2 says

Yet here we are nearing 2 years into Russia's total cockup and they will still have less Ukrainian land under control then they had the first week of their invasion.

This isn't about Russia. This is about Ukraine. Ukraine fucked up, wasted THREE armies w/o achieving their war objectives.

Meanwhile Russia's objectives of preventing NATO expansion in Ukraine while protecting ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine has been achieved.

PumpingRedheads says

Meanwhile Russia's objectives of preventing NATO expansion in Ukraine while protecting ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine has been achieved.

How many new NATO members are on Russia's border now?

Ukraine, despite what you think - is now one of the most experienced and most heavily armed militaries in Europe and are going to continue killing tens of thousands of foolish Russians trying to occupy their land.