patrick.net

AD says

I'm not sure if international trade will completely shut down.

I am not saying trade will shut down. It will not happen in dollars anymore. Trade will mostly happen within the sphere of influence.

China will work with East-Asian countries.
India will work with Indian Ocean countries.
African countries will work within the continent.
Same for South America.
Russia will work with Asian countries and maybe with Europe.
America and European countries will work closely which is same as now.

And dollar usage will drastically come down.

indc says

America and European countries will work closely which is same as now.

And dollar usage will drastically come down.

Okay just like what is happening now and I'll give credit to Biden as far as electronic manufacturing investments in the USA.

What does that mean for standard of living or quality of life in the USA ?

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indc says

"Can you guess why US is letting in so many illegals?"

Yes. The Uniparty wants them to vote in November.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Don't do drugs and post on PatNet at the same time.

@UkraineTotallyFucked

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1768579446221496773

TYSON FOODS HIRES ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WHILE LAYING OFF U.S WORKERS

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This will happen more often after the elections.

indc says

UkraineTotallyFucked

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1768579446221496773

TYSON FOODS HIRES ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WHILE LAYING OFF U.S WORKERS

So?

What does this have to do with BRICS and the bullshit thereof?

Nothing.

Same for real estate developers going bankrupt.

AD says

Okay just like what is happening now and I'll give credit to Biden as far as electronic manufacturing investments in the USA

What does that mean for standard of living or quality of life in the USA ?

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1768064540007404016
US re-industrialisation update: Samsung, LG, SK, all in the process of building semiconductors and battery factories in the US, "suspend US construction projects" amid labor and construction costs "rising at alarming pace".
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As you can see just because you bring back manufacturing with subsidies nothing will happen as long as labor costs are not managed.
And that cannot happen unless standard of living and quality of life are compromised.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

So?

What does this have to do with BRICS and the bullshit thereof?

Nothing.

Same for real estate developers going bankrupt.

I agree you cant see how it leads to de-dollarization with this limited information. But if you see the progression of these events it will lead to no more can-kicking and hence de-dollarization.

You agree that interest rates will not go down, in a way that will also lead to de-dollarization.

indc says

But if you see the progression of these events it will lead to no more can-kicking and hence de-dollarization.

No. It does not.indc says

You agree that interest rates will not go down, in a way that will also lead to de-dollarization.

Nope. The opposite. Demand for dollars will rise.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Nope. The opposite. Demand for dollars will rise.

You mean that if the 10 Year Treasury is paying at least 2% greater than the government-reported annual inflation such as PCE, then it will mean there will be more demand for "dollars" as in 10 Year Treasuries ?

.

.

I remember from personal finance classes that you want to earn 4% plus annual inflation. So if annual inflation steadies at 3%, then you need to earn 7%.

This is based on premise you deduct around 3.5% a year as like an annuity and want your savings to appreciate at least at the rate of annual inflation.

Vanguard has a fund like Lifestrategy Conservative Growth Fund (60 bond/40 stocks) for this type of circumstance.

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AD says

.

I remember from personal finance classes that you want to earn 4% plus annual inflation. So if annual inflation steadies at 3%, then you need to earn 7%.

This is based on premise you deduct around 3.5% a year as like an annuity and want your savings to appreciate at least at the rate of annual inflation.

Vanguard has a fund like Lifestrategy Conservative Growth Fund (60 bond/40 stocks) for this type of circumstance.

.

10 year Total rate of return on it is 4.68%. CPI increase has been 2.65% over the last 10 years. Puts the inflation adjusted @ about 2%, and that is with the stock market at an all time high. Better have it in an IRA or it sucks even more after taxes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx#performance-fees

There is no fire and forget strategy. No matter what the investment companies say, you gotta try to time the market.

If you would've dollar cost averaged either into or out of it, the total return figures are also lower.

Misc says

10 year Total rate of return on it is 4.68%. CPI increase has been 2.65% over the last 10 years. Puts the inflation adjusted about 2%, and that is with the stock market at an all time high. Better have it in an IRA or it sucks even more after taxes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx#performance-fees

Yes, because its bonds are essentially indexed to Vanguard's Total Bond Market ETF (ticker: BND), which obviously got its ass kicked when the Fed Funds rate went from 0.25% to 5.5% in about 12 months because inflation spiked to around 9%.

And since it apply a bond ladder strategy, the bond fund should recover after getting over the shock of inflation jumping that fast.

I would go back 25 years with this one. But its meant to be a safe way such as for a senior citizen to invest.

.

IMHO the best investment people could have made was refinancing their 30 year fixed rate mortgage at under a 3% rate.

That simple deal outperformed pretty much every money manager out there, and most people did that with a huge percentage of their net wealth. Timing is everything. That and being given the opportunity.

I can see why Gen Z is clutching at straws like crypto, they have very little to invest in. Lots to speculate on, but nothing to invest in. At least their student loan rates are at about 1.5%. Kids looking at college now...about 5.5% on their student loans with no increase in salary compared to previous generations.

So for those just starting out, I don't know how much of a difference between them and someone starting out in a BRICS country there is.

AD says

You mean that if the 10 Year Treasury is paying at least 2% greater than the government-reported annual inflation such as PCE, then it will mean there will be more demand for "dollars" as in 10 Year Treasuries ?

I mean when interest rates go up period. Not limited to just the interest paid on Ts.

Commercial bonds (not involving RE obviously), CDs, mortgages, car loans, state and local, etc. And interest paid on dollar denominated paper foreigners have amongst each other in the eurodollar arena especially.

The entire kitchen sink.

Why would India buy Venezuelan oil when Saudi oil is literally right next door?

Dollar Milkshake Theory gets a boost:



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/16/yen-drops-to-155-against-usd-currency-collapse-at-work-50-against-usd-since-2012-32-since-2021/

But...but the dollar is going to shit!

India has steadily increased its reliance on Russian oil.

According to Reuters: Through term deals and spot market purchases, the South Asian nation imported about 1.66 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2023 compared to an average 652,000 bpd in 2022.

Then also this: https://asia.nikkei.com/ › Economy › Trade › Indian-im...
Feb 20, 2024 — Russia was India's largest oil supplier in 2023, accounting for around 30% of imports. The monthly tally peaked at 1.99 million barrels in July.
.



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1 USD buys 83 Hindus.
Some year ago you could only buy 40 Hindus for $1.

Hindu has become cheaper and begging worldwide. Dollar is king and Hindu is slave.

Even few shekels can buy lot of Hindus to work in war zone. Hindu is desperate. Hindu money is worthless, no challenge to USD.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/17/1229525320/india-israel-hamas-war-jobs-migrant-workers

@UkraineIsTotallyFucked

Why do you think Trump is talking about De-dollarisation now?

indc says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked

Why do you think Trump is talking about De-dollarisation now?

Who cares?

Hindus live/earn in US but still wants to destroy it.

India supporting treasonous Hindus must be deported.

indc says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked

Why do you think Trump is talking about De-dollarisation now?

Trump is concerned the standard of living will significantly degrade because of a lot weaker dollar. Biden has not even during the 2020 campaign.

That is why Trump realizes we have to be as energy independent as possible, as especially food prices will be hard hit with an increase in the price of diesel.

Perhaps also this means that the price of the cheapest laptop at Walmart goes up 50% because of de-dollarization.

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AD says

That is why Trump realizes we have to be as energy independent as possible, as especially food prices will be hard hit with an increase in the price of diesel.

We are. We are a net oil and gas exporter (on and off). Food? We have been a huge exporter of that for over a century.

AD says

Perhaps also this means that the price of the cheapest laptop at Walmart goes up 50% because of de-dollarization.

And all of that will be sold for dollars. So much for 'de-dollarization'.

They will then be made in North America and a few other places.

Basic take here: UST loses reserve asset status bit US dollar does not lose reserve currency status.



https://youtu.be/DD1CnjI2Z3k?si=IWyzw7QlIYKjIXVO

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

And all of that will be sold for dollars. So much for 'de-dollarization'.

They will then be made in North America and a few other places.

Yes, sold in dollars at Walmart and other retail outlets in the USA, but at a higher price because of de dolarization (and weakened USA dollar).

True, as far as being made other than by the Chicoms such as made in Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Guatemala, Peru, etc.

Cheapest Chrome book at Walmart around $188 now. I think same sold for around $150 a couple of years ago.

.

AD says

but at a higher price because of de dolarization (and weakened USA dollar).

There is no 'de-dollarization'.

The Walmart example you cite is not an example of de-dollarization. Dollars were used to buy the fucking laptop, not gold or bitcoin or magical BRICS bucks.

A lot of references to 'yuan' in this article could apply to 'yen' 27 years ago. Especially about export mercantilism.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-would-it-take-for-a-bric-based-currency-to-succeed/

China is largely dependent on energy and food from the rest of the world. It has dirt and mines, as well as rice paddies, but not enough food to feed its people or energy to fuel its industry (this is why they're gung-ho for nuclear, besides the obvious arms benefit of the PUREX process for refining plutonium).

Europe and the US have to pay farmers to curtail production so as to maintain prices - their farmers are that productive because the climate and resources are at present abundant. Hell, Europe is trying to run its farmers off their lands because the cows fart too much.

stereotomy says

Europe and the US have to pay farmers to curtail production so as to maintain prices - their farmers are that productive because the climate and resources are at present abundant. Hell, Europe is trying to run its farmers off their lands because the cows fart too much.

European farmers are dependent on farm supports and protectionism precisely because they are not productive as they need to be. Same for Japanese farmers.

What? How come no rubles, rupees or rials are involved? Duuhhh..BRICS De-dollarization!

Wow! $400 billion!

But...BRICS! De-dollarization!

Ppl, let me help you to isolate when the possibility or perhaps better stated ... the fear of de-dollarization was apparent in the global markets. It was during the reign of error ... George W Bush, the worst president in modern US history.

That's when Gold broke out of its multi-decade bearish channel and into a bull market. Here's that chart ...



Since GWB, gold bugs have been screaming & shouting but yet, instead of expecting every pullback to $1100/oz or $1500/oz (or even $1800/oz), to melt up to $5000/oz or $10000/oz, they could have just swing traded it and made money.

https://x.com/saifedean/status/1801154864514208008

https://patrick.net/post/1381521/2024-06-22-global-central-banks-plan-to-increase

First the USD was going to hyperinflate and lose the GRC.

Then was going to be replaced by the Euro.

Then SWIFT was going to be usurped by INSTEX.

Then the PetroYuan was going to kill the PetroDollar.

Then Shanghai Gold Exchange was touted as the killer app.

When that didn’t work the e-yuan was sure to do it.

After that came Libra.

During Covid the Fed did everything the dollar fatalists ever predicted and they assured me the DXY would never again go above 100.

Then the DXY went to a 30 year high.
Bitcoin and crypto have created fabulous wealth but have also solidified the USD as GRC via stable coins.

And amongst all of this stuff that has never worked over the years the BRICs continuously hinted “this year” would be their big launch. And yet Lucy pulls the football away every year.

Now that none of this stuff has worked the goalposts have been moved again and two new stories have emerged.

1) The USD wont lose Global Reserve Currency status but USTs will lose Global Reserve Asset status…never mind the fact that USTs losing GRA status would contribute to the USD returning to all time highs.
&
2) The USD is not the most important form of money but energy is. Never mind that money was invented so man could harness energy without having to use it directly.

I continue to love these de-dollarization stories for the same reason I love science fiction.
It’s creative, it’s interesting, it’s forward looking….and in 20 or 30 years some of it will be true..

https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund/status/1761384508077592784