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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,818 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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38   AD   2024 Sep 30, 2:59pm  

AmericanKulak says

AD, hope all is well and no problems.


I appreciate that

fortunately the track line of category 4 Hurricane Heline was about 120 miles east of here
39   HeadSet   2024 Sep 30, 6:17pm  

socal2 says

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.

No, it will be that the MAGA folks were unable to stop the steal. In an honest election, Trump wins in a landslide.
42   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 10:54am  

Again, NOT a fan of Polymarket. Americans can't legally bet there. Illegal alien voters and dead people certainly can not, either.

But here it is. Notice the huge delta between the two graphs.




44   WookieMan   2024 Oct 7, 5:12pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I'd have to dig the comment up. I beat JD. No one is ready for a female POTUS. A fake black one at that. That cackles at serious things. Didn't receive a single vote in this primary. Only got in because Biden ate shit at a national debate.

The money is going to be sunk into House and Senate seats. They have to cock block Trump. The know Kamala can't win. Women don't like her and men certainly don't. Unless they're gay which is only 2-3% of the population and most aren't actually gay. They just couldn't fuck a chick and gave up.
45   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 6:37pm  

WookieMan says

I'd have to dig the comment up.


What comment? The cat lady one that he got shit for from the Dems and a bunch of memes were posted about on PatNet?
46   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 6:39pm  

WookieMan says


No one is ready for a female POTUS


Not so much that. It's just that the female candidates so far have been awful candidates. Not a Maggie Thatcher amongst them. And yes, both so far have had those awful cackles.
47   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 6:40pm  

WookieMan says

Women don't like her


Karen's do.
48   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 8, 10:45pm  

Over the past two weeks in my travels, it has been increasingly difficult to engage Democrats about the presidential race, much like a fan whose team has dropped a few playoff games and who is avoiding the sports page, they just don’t want to talk about it.

As one lifelong Democrat in Ohio who I did get to talk to put it, "I don’t know, she’s just kind of there."

It was only after that, that I started hearing Democrats uttering words that seemed unthinkable back in August, namely, "Maybe we should have stuck with Biden." Ouch.


https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/kamala-harriss-joy-quietly-turning-panic-democrats
52   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 15, 5:27pm  

Nate Silver is starting his usual turnaround now that he got a bunch of suckers to bet for Kamala on Polymarket.


53   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 15, 5:45pm  

Polymarket is starting to spread wider than Kamala's legs:


54   PeopleUnited   2024 Oct 16, 8:16am  

If less than 100,000 voters in swing states have more power than millions and millions of voters in other places, and if those 100,000 voters are idiots (aside: chances are many of them are) then we have reached the point in time where idiocracy the movie is reality. Idiots literally run our country.

55   HeadSet   2024 Oct 16, 11:15am  

PeopleUnited says

If less than 100,000 voters in swing states have more power than millions and millions of voters in other places

If that were true then the candidates would only campaign in those districts.
56   PeopleUnited   2024 Oct 16, 6:15pm  

They campaign nearly everywhere because if enough people stay home it might impact the winner and certainly will impact down ballot outcomes. But there are just a few swing districts on which the presidential race hinges, and idiot voters in those districts WILL show up and determine the outcome of the election.
57   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 16, 6:46pm  

It is increasingly evident Kamala is meant to marshal only the delusional Democrat fringe, salvaging downticket races while sacrificing the presidency.

Obama gave this away when he "campaigned for Kamala"... but only in states where a downticket DNC incumbent was in danger.
https://x.com/RAZ0RFIST/status/1846725942565085215
58   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 16, 6:46pm  

Kamala tanked today on Fox.
60   Ceffer   2024 Oct 16, 10:05pm  

For the gambling addicts:

61   WookieMan   2024 Oct 17, 4:05am  

AmericanKulak says

Kamala tanked today on Fox.

When hasn't she tanked? Even though she's older the only reason she got into law school was because she checked some boxes, no different than Elizabeth Warren being Native American. They've been doing the race quotas for decades.

The bottom line is that she's not intelligent. Even Democrats know this. It's just they have TDS and simply won't vote for Trump. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Dems sit this one out or at least abstain from the POTUS vote. Kamala would embarrass this country and if you say you voted for her you'll be mocked. This is a proven track record vs nothing vote that no one even voted for in the first place.
63   RC2006   2024 Oct 17, 7:58am  

Doesnt matter how poorly Harris performs. Biden looked feeble and mentally out of it. He stayed hidden the whole time from everyone. We all watched the last election night blocking windows from the public, midnight jumps, counting centers closing for leaking pipe, so many anomalies and nothing was done. We don't even know how many illegals are voting this election and dems are fighting tooth and nail to keep them on and fight having to show any ID.

Trump winning the first time was a fluke, establishment was not prepared. Sorry for being a downer, just don't be surprised if Trump doesn't beat Supreme DEI Hire Harris that has been chosen. I also think a lot of you underestimate just how dumbed down and captured americans have become by media propaganda. Trump probably has to beat the system by at least 5-10% to have a chance this go around.
65   RayAmerica   2024 Oct 17, 8:12am  

I have to believe that after that disaster of an interview on FOX last night, Harris's chances of winning, even with a lot of cheating, have gone down.

Honestly, in my lifetime, I have never seen anyone worse than Harris. She is flat out terrible. But as bad as she is, what does that say about the millions that will be voting for her? The fact that she has that much support is even scarier.
66   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 17, 8:16am  

RayAmerica says


I have to believe that after that disaster of an interview on FOX last night, Harris's chances of winning, even with a lot of cheating, have gone down.

Honestly, in my lifetime, I have never seen anyone worse than Harris. She is flat out terrible. But as bad as she is, what does that say about the millions that will be voting for her? The fact that she has that much support is even scarier.


She did that interview to get soundbites to post showing her going after Fox and Trump!

All for her voters.

She didn't care for the Fox audience itself. Why would she?

Trump.did the same thing when he went to the black journalist shindig to throw memebombs at them.
67   Onvacation   2024 Oct 17, 8:18am  

RayAmerica says

what does that say about the millions that will be voting for her?

Ignorance and apathy are a dangerous combination.
68   PeopleUnited   2024 Oct 17, 9:16am  

RayAmerica says


She is flat out terrible. But as bad as she is, what does that say about the millions that will be voting for her? The fact that she has that much support is even scarier.

They have literally no moral compass or discernment. When the Antichrist arrives on the scene these people will heartily cheer from him to rule over them. The world is ripe for the arrival of the Antichrist and beast/false prophet world religion.
69   WookieMan   2024 Oct 17, 8:21pm  

RC2006 says

Trump winning the first time was a fluke, establishment was not prepared. Sorry for being a downer, just don't be surprised if Trump doesn't beat Supreme DEI Hire Harris that has been chosen. I also think a lot of you underestimate just how dumbed down and captured americans have become by media propaganda. Trump probably has to beat the system by at least 5-10% to have a chance this go around.

He'll win. I'm usually pessimistic. I think it will be a landslide. I honestly think he gets MN, WI, MI and PA. He'll be above 300 electoral votes.

Trump voters are coming out of the closet in a big way in IL. Why? Why do that? We know he's going to lose the state (maybe). Joe Biden is more coherent than Kamala. She technically shouldn't even be the candidate, but that's the Dem party process. No one voted for her and they won't in November.

She looked like a bitch, not a powerful bitch, but a straight up bitch in that Fox interview. She loses women votes every time she opens her mouth. 90% of straight males will vote Trump. Blacks males won't vote for her. They're insulted she calls herself black. I could write a 10 page paper on her flaws off the top of my head.
70   HeadSet   2024 Oct 17, 9:19pm  

WookieMan says

I could write a 10 page paper on her flaws off the top of my head.

I understand that many people have seen the top of her head...
71   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 10:10pm  

Somebody put a Trump sticker on our mailbox in Santa Cruz when we were at the other location. Of course, it sent wife-o into a frenzy because any indicator or signage of Trump is an invitation to property damage at the very least from wrathful, entitled Libby crazies with TDS. Can't speculate who did that passive aggressively, not worth the gray cell energy.

I told her not to worry, that the two Kard Karrying Kommies that we know of on our street probably just put it there as a scarlet letter marker to let the gulag police know who to haul away after KamalaToe wins the election, but that Trump is going to win, so not to worry. He IS going to win, isn't he?
72   Ceffer   2024 Oct 17, 10:13pm  

HeadSet says

I understand that many people have seen the top of her head...

Does she have 'money shot' tattooed there?
73   stereotomy   2024 Oct 18, 5:36am  

HeadSet says

WookieMan says


I could write a 10 page paper on her flaws off the top of my head.

I understand that many people have seen the top of her head...

Yes, and if you look very closely, there's a circular depression in the top of her head to rest one's beer.
74   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 6:09am  

Ceffer says

Somebody put a Trump sticker on our mailbox in Santa Cruz when we were at the other location.

That's a felony.

And yes, he'll win. I think Dem turnout is going to be low. Unless there's a Senate seat or House seat in your area you're passionate about as a Dem. After 2020 I think the lazy R voters are going to make sure they vote. I think a good 2-5% more turnout on Conservative side and 1-2% turnout drop on the D side. Turnout is going to be the key.

She can't lose one of the swing states basically. She'll lose 2 at least and I think maybe all of the upper midwest besides IL. It would take a Texas miracle for her to win. Don't see that happening, though it could be close.
75   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 18, 9:27am  

WookieMan says

I think Dem turnout is going to be low.


Women out vote men a lot because they actually vote. Like old ppl vote.
76   mell   2024 Oct 18, 10:40am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

WookieMan says


I think Dem turnout is going to be low.


Women out vote men a lot because they actually vote. Like old ppl vote.

Because they work far less than men
77   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 18, 10:46am  

mell says


Because they work far less than men


Nope. It's because men in general don't bother with it.

Most femiNazi karens work. Even if they are bullshit jobs.

https://patrick.net/post/1381874/2024-08-14-bots-brides-of-the-state

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