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And I Thought You Were My Friend...


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2007 Oct 11, 5:08pm   23,583 views  227 comments

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I thought you were my friend...

I noticed that every housing-related article in my rss-feeds today has a negative headline. Negative reports on housing sales, housing starts, home-builders, mortgages, and housing prices. If they aren't predicting further drops, then they are blaming slow retail sales on housing and mortgage problems. In more and more articles, the REIC are being fingered as accomplices to fraud.

Boston Globe: "The US housing bust is like a leaking ship."
Bloomberg: "Retail Sales Slowed as Housing Fell"
Valley Tribune: "Realtor faces trial in alleged scam"
NBC: "Officials Say Mortgage Fraud Is Growing Problem"
AP: "Bear Stearns Predicts Ripple Effect of Real Estate Decline"
Bakersfield Californian: "Realtor Offices Raided By FBI"
Los Angeles Times: "Home prices expected to drop"
:
:
and so on.

When they actually quote from a shill - either a realtor, or a NAR-dummy, or a home-builder - it is invariably with a counterpoint from a more credible source.

Has the MSM has finally clambered on to the bandwagon and left the REIC to fend for itself?

Should Patrick start reporting on articles that are still bullish on housing? Those are becoming harder to find!

SP

#housing

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181   OO   2007 Oct 16, 12:16pm  

Does anyone know of investment site(s) that are dedicated to discussing shorting / put targets?

182   SP   2007 Oct 16, 1:28pm  

skibum Says:
Have any of the pundits/experts even mentioned or contemplated the possibility that this whole “credit crunch” might (in the best of worlds) be the precipitating factor that forever dooms the concept of securitizing mortgages? Maybe, just maybe, there will be a realization that taking a bunch of heterogeneous loans and “packaging” them into a “product” that can be “traded” is not such a good thing after all.

I don't think so - securitization of debt instruments (and trading in them) won't go away, since it is not really a new thing. It has been around in various forms for a long time.

What will change is that the recent burns will cause risk to get repriced at a higher level for a while. You will still be able to lend money against a note and then turn around and resell the note, or sell a large tranche of the notes together - but the discounts will be steeper than they used to.

SP

183   svcausguy   2007 Oct 16, 3:38pm  

SP said

Why are falling housing prices a penalty to economic growth? In what kind of kool-aid filled universe does this hemorrhoid live?

Who is Paulson?

Paulson was Staff Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Defense at The Pentagon from 1970 to 1972.[7] He then worked for the administration of U.S. President Richard Nixon, serving as assistant to John Ehrlichman from 1972 to 1973.

He joined Goldman Sachs in 1974, working in the firm's Chicago office. He became a partner in 1982. From 1983 until 1988, Paulson led the Investment Banking group for the Midwest Region, and became Managing partner of the Chicago Office in 1988. From 1990 to November 1994, he was co-head of Investment Banking, then, Chief Operating Officer from December 1994 to June 1998;[8] eventually succeeding Jon Corzine (now Governor of New Jersey) as its chief executive. His compensation package, according to reports, was US$37 million in 2005, and US$16.4 million projected for 2006.[9] His net worth has been estimated at over $700 million

184   svcausguy   2007 Oct 16, 3:40pm  

"Too bad that even dumb Realtors know that the “median up” jig is up."

we still need direct proof that prices are falling....thus you get capitulation.

185   OO   2007 Oct 16, 3:51pm  

The most savvy move of Paulson was to take the current position, according to Economist, because he was able to unload ALL his Goldman stocks at a high price without causing the market to turn its head - it was required legally. That alone netted him $400M+. If he were to unload all the stocks as CEO without a proper reason, that $400M+ would likely to be very much less.

I have always wondered if that was the main motive for him to become the Treasury Secretary. I would be tempted if I could up my networth 3x in one shot, and if he worked in IB all his life, he obviously cared for money.

186   StuckInBA   2007 Oct 16, 3:55pm  

Indian stock index plunged as much as 9% today triggering trading halts.

http://tinyurl.com/yqrbnp

``The government was getting uncomfortable with the sharp run, which was creating a bubble,'' said Jayesh Shroff, who helps manage the equivalent of about $6.4 billion at SBI Funds Management Pvt. in Mumbai.

I have read news about every country trying to prevent asset bubbles, fight inflation. Not just lip service, but stern measures that have drastic consequences. Sometimes these measures work, often times they don't. But you cannot blame them for not trying.

Here in US, we refuse to even acknowledge the existence of bubble, so we don't have to take any measures at all. Given excuse is often the same - not interfering with the free market. But once they pop, oh do we forget about the not interfering part or what. And we are supposed to be the smarter ones when it comes to free markets.

187   StuckInBA   2007 Oct 16, 4:00pm  

This news confuses me even more.

http://tinyurl.com/37pwlp

Japan, China and Taiwan sold U.S. Treasuries at the fastest pace in at least five years in August as losses linked to U.S. subprime mortgages sparked a slump in the dollar.

If Asian countries are dumping treasuries, who the hell is buying them keeping yields below FF rate ?

188   OO   2007 Oct 16, 4:16pm  

StuckinBA,

The answer may be, the Fed itself. I know I know, I start to sound like a lunatic conspiracy theory believer. But lots of the add-ons were coming from British Virgin Islands where buyers' identity could be hidden (2006 data). I highly doubt if there are so many patriotic or dumb super-riches buying these bonds.

Don't worry, I will be proven right or wrong within 2-3 years.

189   OO   2007 Oct 16, 4:26pm  

The 17th Commie Powwow at Bejing just declared: the government will make it easy for Chinese people to benefit from non-salary source income (aka stock and house flipping).

The Chinese government kept giving the same lip service as they vowed in public to mop up the liquidity. In fact, they won't ever want to mop up the liquidity if that is what is keeping the country going, because what the commie has left to justify the regime is economic growth alone, at whatever cost it takes to sustain. As soon as the growth stalls, China will be in big big trouble.

Just for the record, Chinese monetary growth just went up 20.94% and 18.48% for M1 and M2 respectively for July 07 compared to July 06. If anything, the PROC want this party to go on forever. Mop up my ass.

190   SP   2007 Oct 16, 4:39pm  

StuckInBA Says:
Indian stock index plunged as much as 9% today triggering trading halts.

What's happening with real-estate there? I have a neighbor who CANNOT shut the f*ck up about how much his apartment in Bangalore has gone up since he bought. I am wondering if he is going to pipe down anytime soon.

SP

191   OO   2007 Oct 16, 4:41pm  

PROC=PBOC want=wants

192   DinOR   2007 Oct 17, 12:15am  

StuckInBA,

Thanks for the heads-up. That gave me quite a start. I don't understand why global hedge funds necessarily need anonymity when investing in Sensex "participatory notes"?

193   DinOR   2007 Oct 17, 12:18am  

SP,

After years of battling to contain "domestic smugness" this new strain appears to be very stubborn?

194   StuckInBA   2007 Oct 17, 4:38am  

SP :

What’s happening with real-estate there?

The RE in India exploded where software centers were based. Since this was a combination of mania plus actual wage increases, the bubble is not half as bad as ours here.

There are speculators that are under water. People who have booked multiple apartments are going to lose their deposits. Indian Govt officially gives a rats ass about these and have persistently increased interest rates to break the back of RE speculation. They succeeded in doing that. But as a result INR became strong. Some sudden inflows of foreign funds resulted in BSE index gonig from 14K to 19K in a month and half - that is like 30% in 45 days. And this is a slower index like DJIA - some stocks have done double that.

Indian economy is dependent on exports, but internal growth is getting stronger and stronger. Couple that with high inflation, the RE prices are not in danger of free fall as here. So your neighbor is not going to quiet down soon. But you can tell him that he should have bought in Hyderabad instead ! People feel far more strongly about missed even more gains than realized profits ;-)

195   Duke   2007 Oct 17, 4:39am  

New thread time.

Who can start one?

196   DinOR   2007 Oct 17, 4:53am  

"your neighbor is not going to queit down soon"

Oh great! "Drug resistant i-m-p-o-r-t-e-d smugness". Just what we need! Could it be that traditionally, in India there hasn't been (until recently) any way to "make payments" on a house? I thought (and I could be wrong here) that consumer finance is a VERY recent development there?

197   DinOR   2007 Oct 17, 4:54am  

quiet?

198   StuckInBA   2007 Oct 17, 6:17am  

DinOR :

Yes and no. Home Loans were not easily available when my parents purchased theirs. Only loan they could get was from the employer, which didn't cover much of the costs. Because most of the payment was "in cash only". Completely illegal. It was no secret either. The builder would quote you 2 amounts - they used to be called black and white.

This practice has not disappeared by any means. But the larger builders, which are public corporations now - use only "white" payments. That's why they have to charge a lot more. But it helps buyer get loans. And there are many legal avenues for taking a home loan.

So my parents took loan for the "black" portion from friends, relatives etc. The going rate for such loans those days was 25%. Yes, it was that horrible. So they did "make payments" on the house. But they could not take MID on that part ;-)

199   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 7:07am  

Hey Guys,

Boring topics and convs. Anything fun and interesting?

BTW, I looked around for a nice writing desk and couldn't find any! I went to the top producers, the heirloom makers. There are a couple good ones, but they are all big (60+ inches wide). The only one that really struck my heart (and fit my room) is selling for $8000 after heavy discount. My furniture dealer gently told me that the maker furnishes palaces and embassies. The only reason that I don't shell out $8000 for the desk is that I'm going to use the same room as my amateur art studio and chances are I'll scratch and soil the desk within weeks.

It sucks. I can't find a good desk -- not the executive desks, but the 18/19-th century writing table; besides, who wants to be reminded of a boring businessman's (or taking-himself-too-seriously-running-from-here-to-there entrepreneur 's) life at home -- for under $4000. Most furniture pieces are utterly tasteless and grotesque. I can't believe people (mostly housewives) buy them.

I'm thinking of becoming a furniture designer at some point in my life.

200   HelloKitty   2007 Oct 17, 7:39am  

Cheetah your furniture comment is funny. My 'desk' philosophy is opposite.
I buy a cheap $99 laminate tabletop desk w/no drawers. Then when I move or tire of it I toss in garbage.

This type of furniture is cheap and I consider it disposable. Disposable everything is nice since you dont have to worry about keeping it nice, theft,fire, etc.

201   DinOR   2007 Oct 17, 7:53am  

StuckInBA,

Thanks for filling in some of the gaps in our understanding as to the mechanics of financing there. I'd noticed after years of "cash on the barrel head" even the Philippines are offering "financing schemes" that are... pretty reasonable! I guess they are trying to get Manila to move UP (Lord knows they can't go any further OUT!)

202   HiThere   2007 Oct 17, 7:55am  

HelloKitty,

I understand where you are coming from when you mention 99 desk. There was a stage in life I did exactly what you said. Then you come to a point when you think you are more affluent and well settled in life (though it's a state of mind, you may never settle) and start looking at finer things in life like a nice house, expensive car, nice furniture etc. The order in which you procure them might be different. At one stage in life I though twice to buy a 99 dollar desk but recently I bought a desk for $4800 without thinking twice.

203   HiThere   2007 Oct 17, 7:56am  

though = thought

204   DinOR   2007 Oct 17, 7:56am  

Since they should have my "new" (actually refurbished historic bldg.) office finished in January I figured it wasn't too early to shop for furnishings? I was hoping for that "Mike Hammer Investigations look".

The building is actually from the late 1800's and I'm open to suggestions!

205   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 8:10am  

Kitty,

We are not that different. Either the cheapest or the most equisite. Anything in between, what they call the value items, is abominable. I would put together a few cardboxes and use them as my table.

206   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 8:21am  

A beautiful house I can't afford right now. Actually, it really doesn't make any sense for a single man to live in a house, unless he can staff it with servants. If he were to have roommates, he would not be able to frolic around with his mistresses. So a beautiful condo/co-op (such as this one http://www.johnlscott.com/PropertyDetail.aspx?GroupID=53084101&ListingID=29368047) makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, I can't afford it.

Some guys like NY-style lofts. My personal feeling is that a loft doesn't induce a sense of intimacy and hence poor as a seduction location. Any thoughts on that?

What's the ideal size of an apartment/condo for use as a place of debauchery? 700 sqft, 800 sqft, 900 sqft?

207   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 8:26am  

DinOR,

It depends on your budget and personal taste. PM me.

208   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 8:54am  

Quote of the day:

I choose my friends for their good looks, my acquaintances for their good characters, and my enemies for their intellects. A man can’t be too careful in the choice of his enemies.

209   HeadSet   2007 Oct 17, 9:14am  

I choose my friends for their good looks, my acquaintances for their good characters, and my enemies for their intellects. A man can’t be too careful in the choice of his enemies.

I thought enemies were the accumulation of some of the folks you compete with (especially for women), and personality conflicts.

Are you saying: "Gee, you seem like a smart fellow, I'll make you my arch-nemesis." And of course, "We'd be enemies, if you were not such a dimwit."

It also seems you are saying your friends are good looking dumbshits with bad character.

210   skibum   2007 Oct 17, 9:27am  

Boy GC,
Between the furniture preferences and the house/condo choices you describe, you seem to have the sensibilities of an 80 year old woman, or at the very least someone from the 19th century. If that's your style, maybe you should consider moving to Europe, or at least NYC or Boston.

211   HeadSet   2007 Oct 17, 9:39am  

I noticed that the $1.2 million property that GC linked to was conspicuously marked as sold. Is this a realtor's back door method to show on this blog that properties are still selling?

212   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 9:47am  


It also seems you are saying your friends are good looking dumbshits with bad character.

Men like to flip logical switches, spewing out deductions like millions of sperms. I'm afraid that too many people, too often, make the mistake taking human language as something precise.

But in any case, not a bad conclusion. I do often draw good-looking people with a criminal (or rebelious, or devious) bent, especially in my youth.

NYC and Boston are too expensive. I have to slave myself away in order to live comfortably there. I consider work abominal. C'mon, the real reason why I didn't take that Google offer was that it was insufferable for me to work 10+ hours a day in a room with half a dozen smelly computer programmers. My nature is so strong and so untainted/unbroken by this world that I simply cannot work at a regular job, regardless how well it pays. Street begging is better than working at a wall street firm.

213   GallopingCheetah   2007 Oct 17, 10:04am  

After my quoting Lord Henry, some people suddenly decided to become my enemies.

214   HeadSet   2007 Oct 17, 10:08am  

Men like to flip logical switches, spewing out deductions like millions of sperms.

Huh? Where men like to "spew" sperm has nothing to do with logic. Most prefer good looking dumbshit women with bad character.

215   Different Sean   2007 Oct 17, 6:42pm  

OO Says:
The 17th Commie Powwow at Bejing just declared: the government will make it easy for Chinese people to benefit from non-salary source income (aka stock and house flipping).

hmm, are they commie or cappie? they also said nice things about the environment, sustainability, and giving up the habit of doing all the polluting for the world combined. "i love the smell of industrialisation in the morning, it smells like profits..."

no govt has ever really been very commie in this world, they have revolutionary marxist commie rhetoric with totalitarian command economy reality...

216   DinOR   2007 Oct 18, 12:51am  

"Street begging is better than working at a wall street firm"

WTF? What do you think these guys do all day? It's just panhandling (but with a sales script!) Sheesh.

Then again? Maybe I SHOULD have GC decorate my new office!

(Uh... just no "spewing" o.k?)

I.... don't think so.

217   DinOR   2007 Oct 18, 1:41am  

O.K, so what exactly was it that drove a perfectly happy "work from home" guy to go the trouble and expense of signing a commercial lease and getting an "office"? I just get the sense it's killing you, right?

After the Idon'tknowhowmanieth time at the local tavern with a client and the ultra-hip, been workin' there for 3 weeks server gal comes by (after making sure all her ultra-hip friends were well attended to) she gets around to seeing if we didn't wander in there by mistake?

No sister, I assure you it was not a mistake. See... I've coming to this bar (like my father before me since....) Oh Ya' Know, just forget it! I'll get MY OWN fricken "bar". And thus it started. I don't know how many of you folks have been through the same... BS but I happen to think it's a great idea! The monthly expense (including utilities) is around $225. Park on the street.

Just get a "Headset Consulting" or "SP Engineering" decal up on the door and start having fun! Cigars, the game and a wet bar. Oh and no more sugar daddy tips for so-so service. Why!? In three weeks there will be a NEW "been there for three weeks" gal!

Whadda' ya' say?

218   HeadSet   2007 Oct 18, 2:42am  

DinOr,

So your getting an office had nothing to do with the wife? "I married you for better or worse, not lunch. You go find a place to work and get out of my hair!"

"HeadSet Consulting" sounds good ("con" plus "insult" equals "consult"), but I am hoping property values fall enough for me to pick up a few rental houses. That way my shingle can say "HeadSet Properties." After all, renting will be the new "black." Former FBs will espouse how clever renting is over owning, and actually quote Patrick at their trendy parties.

219   Bruce   2007 Oct 18, 2:53am  

DinOr,

Your historic office sounds interesting - I got a quick visual of Jake Giddis's office in Chinatown.

In SF, you'd find craftsman or mission making a certain sense, if a little stiff, but OR has me stumped. Where in conniption is SFWoman? Bet she'd have great ideas.

220   DinOR   2007 Oct 18, 3:00am  

Headset Consulting,

There were a few clients that I ran out of excuses and places to meet. "So gee DinOR, when are you getting a "real" office?" I kind of got tired of the... snide remarks and people saying "I'd refer so and so to you but they're... you know, "old fashioned".

Since I'd been greatly humbled by a bear mkt. that lasted THREE times longer than historic norms I've learned to live with "smug" remarks. (Who here hasn't?) Now we even have "imported smugness".

Alas, it was the Mrs. that insisted I get an office "big enough for the two of us" when she leaves the trad. workforce in the next few years. And... actually you're right (I was thinking "big enough for a pool table) so you got me there. :(

It wasn't my intent however to imply that a) this would be TOTALLY "a guy thing" b) you can't have ANY fun w/ females present and c) that I haven't been snubbed by an equal number of male servers for not expressing interest in the 'wine list' and insisting on... whatever's on draught!

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