patrick.net

Actually, you can change the area of the post. Simply choose to edit your comment and choose another forum in which to put it.

lyoungblood says

If Bernanke dropped the rate to 0%, the banks would all of a sudden need to start lending the money to anyone with a pulse again

No, it's not the banks' cash in the excess reserves with the Fed, it's their customers' cash.

thunderlips11 says

Japan kept their interest rates at near zero for more than 15 years, and they are still in a funk.
Another parallel, their sideways slump was also preceded by a huge real estate bubble.

This is NOT an accident. Real Estate is the source and sink of ALL wealth, at least until some genius invents sustainable technologies to mine everything from the sea and sky.

Henry George nailed the root problem 130 years ago:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_and_Poverty

The pols are now getting worried about our debt. No problem. Just print more money. With the depressed economy being what it is, I don't think we need to worry about inflation for a long time.

I want either a thread or a forum dedicated for venting about the RE market. It's kind of mean to vent while people are having an intelligent conversation.

Kevin says

After a year of unemployment, you’re going to have to accept that you will never find a job that pays as well as the one that you lost.

I do believe that it was much more than that. There are so many jobs that have gone away (see dailyjobcuts.com) that many people couldn't get jobs at walmart as greeters. In the place where I work, we get hundreds of applications for laundry jobs. It's gotten better but it's scary out there still.

Unemployment helped people not starve to death but that's about it.

Actually, those people who want to say nasty stuff add themselves to the threads everywhere.

LOL, $900K median areas should be doing well in this rich man's economy with 15 year FHA money at 3.875% today.

But if the current gridlock on HR 4213 continues you're going to see the state economy totally blow up.

Medicaid is going to get slaughtered. We're talking billions lost to the state of California. Plus millions of unemployed being prematurely ejected from the 99-week extended dole.

You have NO IDEA the extent of the fiscal crisis that is barreling down on us, and that's at the Federal level.

I can't even wrap my head around the state's problems. While my location says Bellingham that's just one of my bug out options. Probably not far enough.

Don't know about real estate. I know the internet stock buyers were wiped out in 2002. Most of them lost everything and went back to their normal life (such as pizza delivery). There is a myth that some of them get out the stock market and get into real estate in 2001. They all become rich. I don't believe it. Because when I mention Ariba or ICGE, they have no idea what I am talking about.

My horizon is more on the Mayan calendar, we've had a pretty impressive extend & pretend so far, but we're not out of the woods, quite the opposite. Zillow says Lafayette is up 3% since late 2009, rates fell 6% (30bps) over 2H09.

But if this sample is any guide:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lafayette/3440-Solana-Ct-94549/home/1349926

shows that Lafayette isn't that hot a market.

RayAmerica says

How does being unemployed help “people not starve to death?”

Welcome back, rayray. They let you out on your own recognisance? Good for you. Shall I say that unemployment benefits helped people not starve to death? But you know that - you were just being an asshole like usual.

RayAmerica says

elliemae says
In the place where I work, we get hundreds of applications for laundry jobs.
Do you work in a large laundry or is it a Mom & Pop? LOL

Actually, if I did work in a laundry, I would be proud to do so. Your condescending comment reflects your elitist inability to understand that people take pride in their jobs, whether they're the janitor (or laundry person) or whether they're the executive director. And that many, many people are applying for any job that's offered, because eating and living indoors is more important to them than believing themselves to be "better than" someone else.

But you wouldn't understand that, because you lack the ability for reason and compassion.

I appreciate your input, though.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2010/06/21/daily55.html

Some 200,000 people have lost their safety net.

cooperjames says

This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned are Great and needs to be appreciated by everyone. Real Estate Brokers

We're not gonna read your shit, no matter how much you troll to place it here.

1. Realize your Potential
But remember your potential is extremely low, because if you are inspired by a list of simplistic platitudes, you are extremely stupid.

2. Dont Look Back
After all, your past mistakes make you feel bad and history is for losers.

3. Dare to Dream Big
Greed is good. It is the 'Merican way. And the biggest dream is to make money on other people's foolishness! You want to be a Patriot, don't you? Don't make me call Sarah Palin!

4. A Powerful Business Plan
It all starts and ends with, "I am going to sell lots of real estate!"

5. Dont Give Up
After all, quitters never win and winners never quit! Giving up is statisticially shown to be the main reason people quit something!

6. Have an Unstoppable Attitude
Reality is no object. There is always someone dumb enough to believe your cliche lines, no matter how dumb those lines (or you personally) are! Never stop repeating them!

7. Stop Complaining
As Warren Buffet will tell you, happy talk is the only way to success ...

SF ace says

So yeah, I think Layayette is special. It’s a place I wouldn’t mind living in myself.

Clearly the $900K median is indicative of that. The property I listed above:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lafayette/3440-Solana-Ct-94549/home/1349926

has a tax assessment of $100K (!), less than my mom's place in Fresno. If they didn't do any equity borrowing, this owner has a VERY strong pricing power. This looks rentable for $50K per year, a 5.5% return at the current list price.

Not much downside bargaining left for that property, not until the Soylent Green future comes. But even so, the fortress areas will retain value, since safety of one's person, offspring, and property has an IMMENSE potential price premium. I chose to pay an extra $200/mo to live in a mini-fortress, just to reduce the chance of somebody f----ing with my car at night.

SF ace says

Interest rate movement is a function of the underlying fundamentals of the economy

TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

Just a thought experiment for your consumption. In 3 or 4 years, we’ll know if 2009 was the bottom for California real estate. Assuming the market goes up from here, are you going to hold yourself to the same standard? Are you going to admit you victimized countless people by telling them real estate was going to continue to fall? Studies on investor psychology clearly demonstrate that a dollar lost "hurts" at least twice as much as gaining a dollar feels pleasurable. There was someone with the moniker of "landbarron" on another forum I frequent that was all gung-ho regarding LV RE. He eventually disappeared after his holdings reverted to 20th century values, but I too feel for the rubes who bought into his dopey rambling. Then again, since these folks would've been late to the party, they were perhaps also the first to stop paying on their underwater homes and have instead been adding to the increased consumer spending statistics (eyes roll). BTW, I've been reading this forum for years but have never posted. How do I quote correctly? Thanks in advance.

schmitz_kris says

How do I quote correctly?

Select the text you want to quote and then click the "quote" link.

What we will most likely see is another small price swell for California for the next few months, but the state tax credit is almost tapped out (if not so already), so I predict prices will start to go down later in the year, as they did the last couple of months. On the other hand, it's possible prices won't go up at all, even with the state tax credit. We'll see.

Rigged--

Let me start by saying I have no idea if prices will rise or fall in CA in the near future. But you're wrong about the adjusted vs. unadjusted discussion. Look at Boston in your graph--there is no way you can tell me that there isn't a seasonal effect. Shiller is saying since we can't be sure about the magnitude of the effect, it's best not to try to adjust for it. He's not saying that there isn't a seasonal effect. BUT, I'm sure he'd agree that you can't use a 1Q drop in sales to justify that housing prices are falling. Again--look at Boston 2002 - 2005.

And when someone starts their post with "it's quite possible", I think it's pretty well understood that whatever follows is not a fact. No need to point that out.

Just thinking as someone who knows a little about markets, and considering the graph above.

On the way up, everyone who felt they didn't want to miss out bought in if they could, while many others borrowed against their new found wealth.

On the way down, buyers came out of the woods to jump on deals (relative deals that is, hey 50% off what somebody paid for it 3 years ago). More buyers jumped in with incentives from the federal and or state government.

Here is my question. With stagnant economic employment numbers and low inflation, who is going to provide the "demand" side, that is the bids for the next leg up in real estate prices ?

The euro is down, so it won't be Europeans.

Perhaps it will come from those of us who are still waiting for lower prices. No, that doesn't make any sense, we are waiting for lower prices.

Hmmmm.....

I'm not saying prices have to go down from here, but it's pretty hard to imagine a scenario where they go up any time soon. Everyone who would be "long" real estate, already is.

That just leaves sellers.

marcus says

Here is my question. With stagnant economic employment numbers and low inflation, who is going to provide the “demand” side, that is the bids for the next leg up in real estate prices ?

Well, I agree that if employment stays stagnant, then it will be difficult for housing to go up, but I think that's far from a given. Also--you kind of answered your own question earlier in the post:

marcus says

On the way down, buyers came out of the woods to jump on deals (relative deals that is, hey 50% off what somebody paid for it 3 years ago).

Unless you think we ran out of those buyers, I guess...

Also look at the national Case/Shiller index. It seems very clear to me that what's going on currently is not just a seasonal variation. Does anyone disagree?

California real estate is back to 2003 levels, nearly double what it was priced a decade earlier.

I think that whether we are at or near a bottom in Real Estate is dependent on where the economy goes from here ( rocket science, right ? ).

If things get progressively better with the economy and there is no depression, then maybe housing kind of bottoms out for a couple years and then goes up.

If on the other hand this turns in to a full blown depression ( or protracted worsening great recession ), then all bets are off.

marcus says

California real estate is back to 2003 levels, nearly double what it was priced a decade earlier.

2003 in the Bay Area is still very much ubber bubble ! We doubled from 1998 to 2000 and then went up much more higher by 2003. So yes we will have what some call DEPRESSION! But actually it will feel more like 1996-1997. Sorry to disappoint you, you wont be in a soup line.

He was always referencing NAR stats and projections instead. Now that Las Vegas is UNDENIABLY in the craphole, I’d like to know whatever happened to this douchebag so I can rub his fraudulent forecasts in his face. It ANGERS me to think of all the people he might have potentially MISLEAD into buying at great financial loss to themselves. Particularly the financially unsavvy elderly people who may have been victimized. I sure didnt see any Bank point a gun to buyers heads forcing them to buy, and certainly Congress is too busy chasing evil bankers to even consider going after the NAR and their Realtor elves who have been pumping misinformation.

schmitz_kris says

Are you going to admit you victimized countless people by telling them real estate was going to continue to fall

There is no reason why today you cannot go out and make an offer, its about knowing what your buying and a realistic price. Seller wants $500K you offer $300K and back up why they are wrong.

Nomograph says

I purchased two properties in coastal San Diego following the crash

please clarify as there is a bit of a difference between IB and Del Mar. Side note, SD will always be skewed due to military housing allowance of around 2k per month - in case anyone was wondering how SD people can foot the 5k mortgage payment plus cars & kids on 140k combined salary...

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

You must mean “UP …in FLAMES”.
Wow, I haven’t seen these levels of denial since approx. January of ‘45 when Adolf Hitler told his people that they were still on the brink of winning the war. I bet you keep a copy of the NAR Bible under your pillow to ward off evil spirits. And REALITY.

Yea - invoking Hitler will win you friends. Why are you here, if all you want to do is be inflammatory while lacking substance?

robertoaribas says

after the crash… a bit presumptuous!!! No wonder nomorethinking… doesn’t like my data! He’s very likely to watch values plummet!!!

good one. When you resort to name calling, that usually means the facts aren't supporting your case...

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

So according to YOUR logic, when Goldman Sachs -for example- put together a portfolio of WORTHLESS mortgage derivatives which was MEANT to fail, yet at the same time RECOMMENDED that same portfolio to unwary investors as being AAA rated, NO FRAUDULENT FORECAST was committed. Funny, the SEC seems to disagree with you on that.

A recommendation isn't a forecast. UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

And when the U.S. government does it “thinking for me” by providing me with DOCTORED OFFICIAL stats for everything from GDP, to CPI and unemployment numberr, it’s actually NOT fraud either, it’s MY fault for not doing my own “due dilligence”.

I'd suggest wearing a tinfoil hat. The practice in your article wouldn't even affect the mainstream unemployment number at all. It would actually make it worse because these people would be filing for unemployment each time they were laid off, so the new filings number that everyone looks at would be worse. As to GDP or CPI, keep reading your shadowstats, if it makes you feel better...

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

tatupu70 says

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

So according to YOUR logic, when Goldman Sachs -for example- put together a portfolio of WORTHLESS mortgage derivatives which was MEANT to fail, yet at the same time RECOMMENDED that same portfolio to unwary investors as being AAA rated, NO FRAUDULENT FORECAST was committed. Funny, the SEC seems to disagree with you on that.

A recommendation isn’t a forecast. UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Noun 1. financial forecast - a forecast of the expected financial position and the results of operations and cash flows based on expected conditions forecast, prognosis - a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop

thank you for illustrating what I was saying.

Woah, people! O.K., his post was over-the-top, I will grant. But spare the histrionics about him mentioning Hitler. He said it's like the time when Hitler said Germany was winning the war when they were not. That was the extent of the analogy. He didn't say anyone WAS Hitler, or that they did any of the other things that Hitler was infamous for.

---------------------------------------------------------------
The fallacy of the Extended Analogy often occurs when some suggested general rule is being argued over. The fallacy is to assume that mentioning two different situations, in an argument about a general rule, constitutes a claim that those situations are analogous to each other.

Every time an analogy is used it is used to state that A is similar to B in a particular way. It does not (necessarily) insinuate that they are alike in any other way. However, often opponents will attempt to attribute your use of the analogy to extend it to something not analogous as proof of your lack of logic.
Examples

Here's real example from an online debate about anti-cryptography legislation:
"I believe it is always wrong to oppose the law by breaking it."
"Such a position is odious: it implies that you would not have supported Martin Luther King."
"Are you saying that cryptography legislation is as important as the struggle for Black liberation? How dare you!"

This is a "real estate bubble" forum. Shouldn't everyone say "yep. It is overvalued" instead "I just bought 2 investment houses"? The internet message board trolls are everywhere. Thus you will be a fool to believe everything you read here.

So I've save $200k for a down payment on a home. That buys a $1 mil house- not much in SF or Marin. While I've been looking (6 months) house prices have fallen. Not sure what the OP is looking at, but I'm looking at homes on my "favorites" list where the prices keep getting reduced. Usually, de-listed and then reduced.

I'm waiting and renting a nice house for 3k/month. Once a house that went for $1.4 goes for 800k, I'll buy. Right now those houses are at about 950.

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Try NOT to use NAR or government numbers, it’ll only make you look MORE stupid.

Bap33 says

We are all on the same page here

No, we're not. OTS is back. Or his brother.

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Try NOT to use NAR or government numbers, it’ll only make you look MORE stupid.

You do realize that all the articles you posted are commenting on government numbers, right? New home sales, existing home sales, etc. are put out by the commerce dept. which last I checked was part of the Federal Government. But it's OK to trust the numbers when they say what you want them to say, huh?

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

What you REALLY meant by your comment is that you want posters like me sidelined into a separate forum so that we don’t disturb your misconceptions of the FACTS.

Once again, I must reiterate that your style is boorish and you're late to the party. Your feined indignance is tedious, in that it appears that all you wish to do is attack anyone who disagrees with you. Just because you believe that repeatedly calling people stupid is a method of conversation, it doesn't make it so. You're hard to take, is all. Tone it down and say something without accusations and attacks, and perhaps you'll be taken seriously and responded to accordingly.

robertoaribas says

USSA: don’t confuse them with facts, they have their minds made up already! Even after prices resume the very likely downward trek, they will post long tortured explanations why:
1. their state is different.
2. Their state is dropping? well, their city is different.
3. Their city is dropping? well, not their part of the city, that part is different.
4. Well, their are some cheaper homes in their part of the city, but only ugly foreclosures, their home is not dropping, its going up!

Really? Wow, we must really be uneducated, unlike you. Thank godess you're here to save us all, 'cause you're so smart.

We must be reading different boards, because many, many people have posted that property values have dropped and the only question is whether they'll continue to do so, or whether the worst is over. Some feel one way, others the opposite.

USSR - why are you yelling at me? I thought you wanted to slip me the tongue.