patrick.net

So we put our first offer in (after having viewed about 70 houses over the past 5 months) on this one last week at $100k below asking. Didn't get it and agent said it's pending for asking price now. Curious what you guys think it's worth. Great neighboorhood with excellent schools and most nearby homes in similar, renovated condition. Current owner has been there since 2002 and according to Redfin, they paid $781,500 -- all major renovations are recent though (less than 5 years). I would estimate they put in the neighborhood of $100-$150k into it over the past 8 years, including the new kitchen, updated bathrms, 3 year old roof and BBQ out back. Clean inspection save for apparently loose chimney. Not sure what it would cost to rent this place.

Virtual Tour:
http://homesite.obeo.com/viewer/unbranded.aspx?tourid=642835&locale=en-US

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/250-Ruby-Ave-94070/home/1775003

That is so not a $1.225 million home....that part of the Bay Area is still in a serious housing bubble...watch and see.

Well I didn't think it was worth that either. It certainly looks like it's back near 2002 levels though... Assuming I'm right that they put $150k into it, that would make it worth $930k in 2002, which with CPI-U over the past 8 years would put it at $1,154,000... So, it's still a bit over-priced relative to 2002 levels.

I guess it just depends on whether you think 2002 levels were anywhere near reasonable to being with...

Assuming they put X into a house will make it automatically worth X more is, I think, not a good assumption. It all depends on what they did and how well they did it. I have seen plenty houses ruined by remodeling.

Yes it was sold 4/23/2002 for $781,500. It also sold in 5/22/1989 for $375,000. It astounds me that anyone would think it was worth $781 in 2002, or now. Over $1 million??? Foolishness, but that's the bay area for you. The County assessor has it at $939,294.

Valid point about the remodeling cost. I think they put most of their money into the kitchen and bathrms, new roof, flooring and some structural stuff. The only piece that's probably a complete waste was the landscaping and the backyard BBQ. Let's be conservative and say the renovations (whatever they paid) added $80k to the value of the house.

Next, let's assume that the 1989 sales price of $375k was reasonable. With inflation only, the house would be worth $659k in 2010 + $80k in recent renovations = $739k. Given that, it would appear overpriced.

But, do we have to assume that the value of real estate only goes up by inflation over the long term and nothing more? Because if I assume a real appreciation over this period of say 1% above inflation, I quickly get to $900k , and with 2%, I get to $1M, not even accounting for differences in interest rates between 1989 and now... Doesn't the fact that you have lower interest rates now than in 1989 mean that the house price would have been somewhat compressed in 1989 compared to our rock bottom ~5% rates now which allow for higher prices for a given monthly payment?

Looks like 850-950k at current market conditions house to me. That's in the flats near a very nice area, but it's still not great. Small lot, but good sized house. Totally not worth over a million, and will probably be 'worth' 700k at the bottom. (Just my wild speculations)

Possibly. But is there a significant difference between paying say $1.1M for it at 5.25% 30-year fixed rate versus like 800k once rates go up to say 8% in 2-3 years if your monthly payments are more or less equivalent? i get that downpayment would be lower and taxes are going to be a bit lower with a lower house price, but aren't we just relying on the notion that interest rates must rise at a lower pace than the price will come down?

Well, put those numbers in a spreadsheet, then start paying an extra 100 bucks a mortgage payment and see what happens.

You're paying an extra 3,750 bucks a year in taxes at year one.

1.1 with 2% increase per year under Prop 13 means in 20 years you're paying taxes on 1.634 million dollars.

.8 million dollars pays taxes on 1.188 million in taxes in 20 years. Now you're paying an extra 5575 a year in taxes.

Now imagine rates drop back down to 6%. Refinance your 800k.

Now imagine rates DON'T drop back down, but you need to sell your house you bought at 1.1, but it's only worth 800k.

I myself bought a house that I believe will be worth less than I paid for it at the bottom. I knew I would probably be taking a hit on it financially, but did it anyway. And sure enough, I lost a good deal of opportunity on my down payment on the latest stock market run. So it's already 'cost' me. But I still like the house.

Buy if you want to, but don't fool yourself into thinking now is the 'best' time to buy. It's not a TERRIBLE time to buy, because you can lowball and find foreclosures at discount, etc. But it's not a 'no brainer' especially in nicer areas where renting is still significantly cheaper than owning.

I don't have the time or expertise to properly play the foreclosure game, and frankly with a kid on the way, I don't want to buy a place that needs $200k worth of renovation to be livable.

I'm also not an idiot "buy while you can get in the game, it's all up from here" kind of guy. I've been sitting out the market since i moved to the bay area in 2005, thinking it was way overpriced then and I'm happy to sit it out for another year or two if it's really going to make a difference, but eventually, I'd like to buy for the stability that it can bring to our lives. I'm not going to wait another decade for that 'best' time to happen.

But given the huge number of people with large cash holdings in the valley, the shortage of acceptable housing and the complete lack of any construction whatsoever in the 6 years I've been here, I guess I just don't have faith that buying will ever match renting again on the peninsula -- and if it does, who's to say it isn't entirely a result of rental prices rising to meet housing costs?

You don't have to buy a foreclosure to get a good deal, but you do have to be willing to lowball and walk away from properties and accept a house that doesn't have fresh lipstick slapped on it. I bought my house for 30% off the original listing price because I watched the heirs chase the market down in 2009. I put down 25% and hope that it's enough to keep me from being underwater at any point. I also pay an extra 700 a month towards principal, max out 401(k)s, save for college for 2 kids, have a year's income for both of us in the bank, and even have a little extra to save up for repairs/etc.

If you're going to buy now, make sure you can EASILY afford it so you're not ever in the "no money, no equity, no income" squeeze. The economy is a bit bumpy, so make sure you can take a few jolts.

gordo says

Didn’t get it and agent said it’s pending for asking price now

listing was removed. another lying realtor?

gordo,

You said, "given the huge number of people with large cash holdings in the valley..."

I beg your pardon - what objective proof do you have that this statement is accurate? I'm not trying to be difficult, I'm being statistically honest.

I know three families in prominent areas of the RBA that have mounds of debt - they are strapped to their mortgages which are entirely too big for their incomes - and they surely don't have "large cash holdings." My observation is anecdotal; yours is very much the same.

Sounds like you are letting emotion play a large part in this decision - that's fine, but just be honest with yourself and call it like it is.

Quant, I don't have objective proof, but I also don't believe I'm being emotional nor am I looking for excuses to get in over my head on a mortgage.

I'm just expressing my sense that after having spent the past 5 months physically driving to 70 or so open houses, and tracking dozens of others, any time we get interested in one of the few borderline livable properties (like 250 Ruby), there has been a ton of foot traffic and multiple offers at or near asking in less than a week.

I am a low level grunt worker at a major tech company in the valley, and I get a salary that would make the highest paid workers elsewhere in the country salivate. Given that there are thousands of people just at my company that make more than I do, I have to believe that there's a larger supply of people renting and waiting on the sidelines with fairly robust cash reserves (at least enough for 20% down on a million dollar home) than there are reasonable-looking homes for sale on the peninsula.

That would certainly seem to explain why when a decent property does come along, it gets snapped up fast.

Syphilis says

listing was removed. another lying realtor?

I doubt it. If our offer at 100k below wasn't enough and there truly wasn't another offer above us, wouldn't they have just countered our offer rather than reject and pull it off the market after a week?

I figure they just removed the listing from MLS when it went pending. If you're right, I imagine we'll see it back on the market in a couple months.

Maybe $100,000, tops. I think literally everything is way overpriced.

rocket.head says

As to value, I guess the price was worth it to the buyers.

It was a very foolish and self-destructive purchase, and more likely than not some "buyer's" agent made money by encouraging such stupidity. But that's what buyer's agents do.

They could have rented a better place long term for less than a third of the cost per month, literally saving a fortune and living in a nicer place.

rocket.head says

What often is forgotten is the emotional component: people (whether they invest wisely or foolishly) want to set roots.

Yes, that emotional component was just used to ruin the lives of those poor buyers, most likely.

They had a small party, but now they're going to have a whopping hangover for 30 years, or until foreclosure.

Unbelievable! How did that old post World War II bungalow go from $4 dollars per square foot (1950) to $ 520 per square ft in 61 years ? Do the termites in that old wood know its value? Will they stop chomping on those old pine boards because "now" it is supposed to be more valuable? how about the possible wood rot...and potentially moldy rotten flooring under the comode? shower pan?

The suckers who want to pay the 6% Real estate agent fee for this old tract house...deserve to be had. Let them pay a Realtard $59,280 for saying such brilliant statements such as .." and here is the kitchen...where you can imagine your chef preparing your haut cuisine meals.." Or how about this one: "...Imagine entertaining the Governor...or Senator or other person...in your exclusive estate..."

My advice to Realtards ...go back and complete high school...and maybe you can learn a REAL skill...? Or---You can always go back to flipping burgers or gathering shopping carts at the local market...If you EVER worked that hard...I would be surprised.

4 days on the market sold for asking price. You guys waiting for the high end to crash may be here a while.

toothfairy says

4 days on the market sold for asking price. You guys waiting for the high end to crash may be here a while.

listing was removed. not necessarily sold

Syphilis says

listing was removed. not necessarily sold

When can we see the change in the San Mateo county records if it really was sold?

Asked a friend of mine who works at Intero (listing office) and he said that it's pending, scheduled to close on 2/25/11. He wouldn't give me the offer price, but said the current owners owe a lot (as in almost the asking price amount), so he figures it will go for close to asking. Even the people inside his office think it's an unbelievable price for 1900 sq ft!!

Unbelievable price as in waaaaay too much, yes. As I said before the previous owner appears to have paid $781,500 on 4/23/2002. I see a long list of deeds of trust from 2002 through 2010. Lots of refinancing going on, or something.

It hasn't shown up in County records yet, so pending makes sense. It varies as to how long after closing the County records are updated, probably just a few days. The most recent date I see for any sale record is 2/17 (today is 2/23).

I think Redfin is one of the best out there in terms of accuracy and for having no BS like "Zestimates" and such.

The specific record for sales (price) data has not shown up for this one at the County yet, but there is a Grant Deed. Sold to an Asian named couple on 2/25/2011. This couple has a deed of trust (loan) for $980,000. So at 20% on $1.225m I'd say it is correct!

Fools.

Yep!!! And my buddy said that the sellers received two months FREE rent back! That's got to worth $5-6K in this rental market.

Unbelievable....I keep reading that things are going to start heading down and then some idiot comes in and does this to the market. Now all the other listings in this area are going to use this for a comparable and won't lower their prices.

This BA market is driving me crazy!

If it means anything to you, a very large proportion of the Deeds of Trust in the past week have names like:

TRAN
PATEL
YIU
TONG
TSAN
CHEUNG
LEE
YEE
WANG
LIANG
FONG

There are a lot of new Deeds. Perhaps Syrib (was that the guy ?) is right, the Chindian crowd will prop up this market for a while.

^ where the white people at

Syphilis says

^ where the white people at

The midwest.

only one Indian name? Where the INDIAN people at?

pkowen says

If it means anything to you, a very large proportion of the Deeds of Trust in the past week have names like:
TRAN

PATEL

YIU

TONG

TSAN

CHEUNG

LEE

YEE

WANG

LIANG

FONG

permanent_marker says

only one Indian name? Where the INDIAN people at?
pkowen says

If it means anything to you, a very large proportion of the Deeds of Trust in the past week have names like:

TRAN
PATEL
YIU
TONG
TSAN
CHEUNG
LEE
YEE
WANG
LIANG
FONG

I left out some Russian names too. What can I tell you there was a lot of names (1688 records, but multiple records per transaction), and I cherry picked. Here ya go! Are these Indian?

PADEN
VENKATESH

And let's not forget the BANKS! Lots of banks are proud owners (grantees) this week!

MORTGAGE ELECTRONIC REGIS SYS
UNION BK
JP MORGAN CHASE BK
WELLS FARGO BK
JMAC LENDING INC
PROVIDENT FUNDING ASSOCIATES LP
CITIMORTGAGE INC

Went to an open house on Sunday in Central Menlo Park. We were the only non-Asian/non-Indian family in the house and it was packed!

The MP elementary school teacher who lives across the street from us says that she and the other teachers joke among themselves that Menlo is now "Cupertino North." Her third grade class demographic has changed drastically in the last 4 years.

The teachers are not referring to Cupertino real estate, they are referring to its demographic.

Santa Clara is like that too mostly Indian

sfbubblebuyer says

Looks like 850-950k at current market conditions house to me.

For comparison, the slightly smaller 244 Ruby sold for $970.5K a few weeks ago:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/244-Ruby-Ave-94070/home/1792801

It's 1700 sqft as a 3/2 vs. 1900 sqft 4/2.5 for 250 Ruby with the same size yard, and it sold for $900K in 2006.

gordo says

Next, let’s assume that the 1989 sales price of $375k was reasonable. With inflation only, the house would be worth $659k in 2010 + $80k in recent renovations = $739k. Given that, it would appear overpriced.

1989 was a peak year in prices and the brutal declines lasted into the following decade. All said many were selling at low 300K or even less. Its better to use mid 90s prices after the correction.

Property History for 145 NEVADA St
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Jun 12, 2011 Listed (Active) $899,000 -- MLSListings #81126130
Mar 22, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $730,500 9.1%/yr Public Records
Oct 09, 1992 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 -- Public Records

We have been looking for a house in San Carlos/Belmont/Emerald Hills for the past 5+ months. I have been reading PatNet since 2007 but looks like the recession/ Housing downturn doesnt apply to certain areas. There are still enough buyers driving housing prices in the "very special" BA to the point of it getting ridiculous.

The first house that we made an offer on 4b/2b asking price 1.058M. House needed 30k worth of repairs to the roof and drainage. We bid above asking. The house had 12 offers and sold for 1.15M.

Second house Emerald Hills 4/2. Asking price 1.049M. The master was small and the master bath was weird. We bid below asking. 3 offers sold for 1.1M

Third house was from a couple of weeks ago 4b/2.5 bath. Asking price $998k. All the bathroom needed updating and some minor work.
We bid over asking. 8 offers and sold for 1.09M.

We have been to over 50 open houses in the past 6 months in the area and all houses that we were moderately interested in sold within a week for a min of 50k over asking. We are frustrated to the point that we are going to stop looking and lay low for a while but at the back of mind is a nagging thought of having missed the window of opportunity as prices dont seem to be coming down at all in these areas.

Cruzcat, will you please provide more information on which houses exactly that these are? I've had people tell me about housing sales that were going "above asking" even though they were going for lower than the prior sale price. That doesn't say that houses are "special," but rather they were priced wrong by the listing agent/owner or priced low to encourage bidding up.

For example, I see this house at $799K, which is $76K below its inflation-adjusted 2001 sale of $685K:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Emerald-Hills/775-Lakeview-Way-94062/home/1710325

I see this listed at $838K, sale pending, when it previous sold in 2008 at $850K:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Emerald-Hills/3719-Hamilton-Way-94062/home/1857033

This house with Woodside elementary instead of RWC has been for sale for more than two and a half years and is in your price range:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Woodside/610-Woodside-Way-94062/home/1678462

Cruzcat says

We have been to over 50 open houses in the past 6 months in the area and all houses that we were moderately interested in sold within a week for a min of 50k over asking.

You are probably looking at the best houses of the bunch and are surprised that a few of them are going above asking. Start looking at the other 47 and tell me if the same thing happens. The best houses always go for the best prices.

You are correct that houses in the $700K-$1.1M or so have been helped by the massive amount of government subsidies going into the mortgage market. Unfortunately, that's the state of things, as long as our government thinks it's worth propping up the market. You'll notice that if you look in Emerald Hills above this price range, you can see dropping prices:

Down almost $750K over almost a year and a half: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Woodside/91-Tum-Suden-Way-94062/home/1887011
Down $84K over the last several months: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Woodside/757-W-California-Way-94062/home/1038247

Cruzcat says

We have been looking for a house in San Carlos/Belmont/Emerald Hills for the past 5+ months. I have been reading PatNet since 2007 but looks like the recession/ Housing downturn doesnt apply to certain areas. There are still enough buyers driving housing prices in the “very special” BA to the point of it getting ridiculous.

We experienced the same thing when we were looking. We were patient and eventually things worked out for us.

corntrollio says

Cruzcat, will you please provide more information on which houses exactly that these are?

Here are some of the houses that we toured which sold over asking

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/3154-La-Mesa-Dr-94070/home/1983782
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/113-Plymouth-Ave-94070/home/1183196
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/17-Del-Rey-Ct-94070/home/788582
834 Shepard Way
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/931-Pleasant-Hill-Rd-94061/home/835184
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/955-Edgecliff-Way-94061/home/2049579
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/1732-Greenwood-Ave-94070/home/2011596 (this sold 3k below asking at 1.095M, 3b/2b,1620 sqft). Crazy IMO

3326 Plateau Dr, Belmont, CA 94002 asking price 1.038M This had a seller contingency that they find a house in woodside.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Carlos/1777-Elizabeth-St-94070/home/1201627.

15 College View Way Belmont, CA 94002

TBH, I have yet to encounter a perfect house in San Carlos or Emerald Hills (within our price range). Most of the houses we toured required decent amount of work or there was some compromise in the layout or sloping lot etc. So its not like I am cherry picking the best houses on offer in these areas.
The foot traffic at the open houses and the number of offers leads me to believe that there are just too many desperate buyers in our range (950k - 1.1M)

Houses in the 1.5M+ range that you listed are in a different category and outside the reach of most 2 income families in the valley.

Anyways, it is a wait and watch game for us at this point.

Glad I'm not looking in the peninsula...at some point the desire to own has to give way to common sense. Do you really want to spend over a million bucks for something that just kinda feels right?