patrick.net

Given how deliberately opaque the housing market is, I don't think you should rely on anecdotes either.

thats how financial manias are created..it only shows we are still at it in parts of the bay area.

hanera says

I'm asking the same question too. My real estate agent told me that inventory is low because sellers think house prices have bottomed and are holding for better prices. House prices could have bottomed since unemployment rate is declining and stock market is buoyant, S&P is pretty near previous ATH.

Whether prices have bottomed is probably regional to a degree. The decline in the unemployment rate isn't bad news at face value, (even full-time employment is up), but when you get down in the weeds on things like the labor participation rate and look at the type of jobs and salaries that are replacing the jobs that were lost after 2008, the picture looks less rosy. Certainly not a strong argument for sustained elevation in house prices. I really think the action you are seeing now is probably just speculation. People are chasing yields. You actually see this dynamic playing out in many disparate markets, including the collectibles market. People just want return. Same old story.

As for sellers holding back...that's probably a fraction of the overall inventory problem. The real problem is that much of the shadow inventory that remains in limbo, while the banks collect fees.

Your agent is probably not going to square with you on this stuff, if they even have the wherewithal to know how to square with you about it. They're just trying to make a living, and in their mind, anything they suggest that might undermine that is simply counterproductive to that end. I was speaking with an agent the other day and told her that I thought buying an expensive house (in this case, a fixer that I didn't realize was so dilapidated) in a low rate environment with 97% leverage loans available was generally ill-advised. She seemed reticent, but eventually nodded in agreement. I was surprised.

If I didn't despise my landlord so much, I wouldn't be looking at all right now.

myob says

I'm willing to get financially raped to live someplace we like :)

This is another dynamic which should not be discounted. I think more people who can afford to overpay are feeling the urge to do so. After all, this staring contest could go on for another four of five years.

myob says

A decent house for rent in a reasonable area of sunnyvale/mountain view/los altos/cupertino will set you back about $3000+, more if it's on a nice lot, or a good neighborhood,

Same in SF.

We're looking...not because I think RE has bottomed, but because for a 500K house we'd be paying roughly the same as rent. No, we're not buying in Pacific Heights or Now Valley.

And our landlady is crazy.
And we're getting old trying to wait out this bubble. I'd like to stop being a renter before I retire...or before our kids go to college.

We put an offer on a house in January. Asking 499K for 1500 sq. ft, 3 br, large yard, garage, in the neighborhood we want. 10 offers in 1 week, ours at 30K over asking was at the bottom of the pack. Went to an all cash buyer for 588K, so even if we offered 90K over asking, we still wouldn't have gotten it.

Hoping that once the facebook IPO comes and goes and the spring season is over then it wont be so crazy.

But there are a helluva lotta folks out there underwater, and plenty of unlisted REOs.

1sfrenter says

We're looking...not because I think RE has bottomed, but because for a 500K house we'd be paying roughly the same as rent.

It's worth noting that rents are currently enjoying a boost from this unusual housing environment. I think the idea that rent never goes down is as specious as the idea that housing prices never go down. Does nobody consider that the more properties that are converted to rentals, and the more MF homes that are built, the more rents will fall over the long run? And the more homes that are sold out of REO or short sales at lower prices, the more it will make them viable rentals at lower prices. The later investors will undercut the earlier ones with the higher cost base.

says

I'm willing to get financially raped to live someplace we like :)

and then you get foreclosed and evicted, right ?

Austinhousingbubble says

I think the idea that rent never goes down is as specious as the idea that housing prices never go down

I've lived in SF for 23 years, in 4 different neighborhoods and 5 different places. My rent has never gone down.

1sfrenter says

I've lived in SF for 23 years, in 4 different neighborhoods and 5 different places. My rent has never gone down.

The question isn't just necessarily whether your rent has gone down in that time; it's the anomalous rate at which rent has been climbing and what has propelled it. People tend to think about these things in strictly linear terms, rather than cyclical; I suspect we are at the extreme end of a vicious cycle.

As to your personal experience -- to what degree did your rent go up? I lived in an apartment complex for a few years and discovered that while they were raising my rent incrementally each year, new leases were being originated for less than I was paying, and indeed, less than I had signed-on for three years earlier. Also, as you moved over those years, did you upgrade to a better area? bigger unit? better view? more amenities?

....derp derp derp...all-cash buyers...derp derp derp...all-in baby...derp derp derp...

thomas.wong1986 says

says

I'm willing to get financially raped to live someplace we like :)

and then you get foreclosed and evicted, right ?

No, I mean that I will lose money. I doubt I'll ever be upside down on the loan, but I could lose my down payment, for sure.

xenogear3 says

Can you afford 10% rent increase every year?

Like a lot of smart people , you leave.

This area stinks. The pays even with the RSUs arent even close to what it takes to live here. Its the worse pay to cost of living ratio I've ever seen. Bay Area, the death of the middle class.

1sfrenter says

I've lived in SF for 23 years, in 4 different neighborhoods and 5 different places. My rent has never gone down.

Normalize for inflation. Because they are destroying the purchasing power of the dollar, no one expects it to go down. Normalize against area pay and or area inflation .

There may have been times where by percent of your income the rent is lower than it is today..

E-man says

Our offer was 6% above asking price. The highest offer was 18% above asking, and this person got the house

Whats funny about this is that companies will interview many nearly equivalent candidates and get the cheapest one.

So how is the guy who is supposed to occupy these homes actually afford them when companies seek to lower pay and reduce headcount at the same time these house prices go up and at the same time the carrying costs are skyrocketing due to things like FOOD and GAS going through the roof?

Its a race to the bottom . Kiss the middle class goodbye.

myob says

I work in a company where quite a few of my co-workers have big money

You realize the average and median incomes in the area dont equate to big money, right?

Just because there are stories of those who are well monied doing irrational or nouveau riche behavior with their money doesnt mean this sets the trend.

It does prove, however, that the movie Idiocracy is a documentary.

Assumption of appreciation was the root cause of the whole bubble.

There seem to be a fresh supply of debt slaves that either did not experience or have forgotten the last bubble just a few years ago.

thomas.wong1986 says

We had dual income families in Silicon Valley since the 70s, yet we didnt see prices skyrocket to the extent of the recent bubble.

Dual Incomes pretty much is one of the biggest lies i have heard during the bubble in the Bay Area...

Dual income as a requirement is a horrible detractor to quality of life, generally creates bad kids due to the latchkey effect and its basically destroying society from within.

Having a dual income situation if there is work from home or a part time jobe thats easy to blow off, but having two high powered engineering jobs, well it sucks,.

agst says

Anecdotally, my circle of acquaintances don't seem to put down 20% even if they have the money. If another crushing recession occurs and they lose the ability to pay, strategic defaults are available.

This is it. Somehow, people are getting in without putting in. Either with unearned equity, or with FHA or some other gimmick. This allows massive leverage. The casino is open, well see how long mister fed can keep the record low interest rates on to fuel this false economy with these gambling activities on as a result. The whole thing at this point is farcical.

I was looking in late 2011, in south Bay Area after being outbid on a few offers I stopped looking B/C I realized it was stupid to pay 600K, for a fixer upper that would cost me almost 2K, a month more than my current rent.

Also, I believe that after the election the the FED's will pull all the support from the housing market.

"they can't keep kicking the can down the road forever"!!!

I'm not sure what's going on in the Peninsula, but we have been looking at houses and our observation is that yes- there seems to be less inventory, but there is also a lot of houses for sale that are priced a LOT lower than they were at the peak. We're looking around the east bay and there are scads of decent houses all in the under 500k range. Some for under 400k.

I talked to one realtor and their opinion from what they were witnessing is that there are a lot of people who bought at the peak who now can't sell because there is no way they would get what they paid... so they are stuck. And so they simply don't put the house on the market.

I think part of this might also be seasonal overlap: The house-selling season has just gotten started.

Along with the owners that are stuck underwater, there are those who are waiting for prices to rebound a bit. In the BA there are a lot of aging baby boomers who counted on the 2005 value of their home for retirement.

The reason for the ridiculous amount of hype by RE agents and brokers over the "multiple offers" and "over asking" sales is not to motivate buyers, but to encourage sellers to list.

They're expensive because they are located within commuting range of well-paying jobs. Foreigners also love the idea of a piece of California real estate.
If you team up with your fiance and buy it together, consider the alternative:
Take 1/2 of your net worth, make a pile in the street, and burn it. At least it keeps out of her hands later.

Austinhousingbubble says

....derp derp derp...all-cash buyers...derp derp derp...all-in baby...derp derp derp...

lol I was thinking the exact same thing.

This is the second time that I've seen that incredibly misleading chart of FHFA data. As I've previously pointed out, that chart is going to tend to simply correlate with what the conforming loan limits are in any given year.

If you're expecting that chart to show a big drop in the future, well, good luck on that! That will happen only happen on the day that they disband Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. While there are certainly proponents of doing so, I doubt that it is politically realistic in the current economic climate.

Someone pointed out here a short time ago (wish I saved the post because it was so simple and true it was brilliant) - the ENTIRE reason the Bay Area is so high is that the price of available houses is going ALWAYS be equal to the amount that a two person software engineer type family would be able to pay for a house (at whatever the going interest rates are).

Figure a decent AVERAGE engineer makes 90k+ x 2 = 180k - obscene taxes at less than 4% interest rate

Lets say for the sake of argument they clear 10 to 12k a month (on the low end) - then a loan payment of 3 to 4k is not unreasonable. This translates into 600 to 700k houses in today's interest rate environment.

That IMO is the ENTIRE basis behind the BA house prices right there. A boatload of engineers, willing to bet they will be able to keep their jobs for the next 30 years and make those payments on time.

As long as Silly Valley has those engineer jobs, the prices there will stay up. And you can make the same argument for Washington DC and use average govt bureaucrat salaries.

The (ir)rationality is the same and it will not change because that is just the human nature of your average non-thinking human.

Those engineer and bureaucrat jobs tho, they exist right now because the govt/Fed is willing to overspend the natl budget by 40% each year.

When that stops, then the jobs go away, and when the jobs go away then BA house prices crater.

So in buying a BA house, your REAL bet is that the govt will be able to single-handedly continue to prop up the economy with borrowed money at a 40+ percent run rate, for the next 30 years.

Good luck with that.

kochevnik says

So in buying a BA house, your REAL bet is that the govt will be able to single-handedly continue to prop up the economy with borrowed money at a 40+ percent run rate, for the next 30 years.

How do government create demand for tech products? For example, most customers of Apple products are consumers of which more than 50% are outside USA.

kochevnik says

the ENTIRE reason the Bay Area is so high is that the price of available houses is going ALWAYS be equal to the amount that a two person software engineer type family would be able to pay for a house (at whatever the going interest rates are).

Figure a decent AVERAGE engineer makes 90k+ x 2 = 180k - obscene taxes at less than 4% interest rate

My wife and I aren't engineers, but we would fit your model income-wise. That said, there is NO WAY we would ever pay 700k for a house. Doing so in my opinion is simply taking a big risk. At that point the payments would place you in a precarious situation where both incomes would be required in order to pay the loan off consistently, and as someone who has lost jobs several times for one reason or another, I would not count on both incomes always being there.

The fact of the matter is that we're looking at the 400k-500k range, and under 500k is definitely preferable. As far as SF and the Peninsula, we're not even giving those areas a look because the prices are way out of line for our incomes.

This is all after living extremely frugally, renting cheap for over 10 years, and saving for a bit longer then that. I just find it difficult to believe that there are that many people- after all that happened during the housing bust-who would eagerly and willingly place themselves in a financially risky situation for a house.

I don't buy that argument. The Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps track of this stuff, and all of California has about 430,000 "information" jobs. The population of the bay area is about 7.5 million, that's still less than 6%. There are of course highly paid engineering jobs, medical research, etc. Triple that number, and you're at 18%.

I backed out on buying the house I was considering, but the process gave me some insight into the market, and it's totally disconnected from any sort of sensibility. It's like there's another bubble forming before the last one finished popping. I'm hearing the same BS as before, "prices have hit a new floor", "interest is all time low", etc. The moment interest rates go up, housing will suffer here since people max out their loans to buy.

"How do government create demand for tech products? "

Seriously ?

The methods govt interference are legion.

One way they do is to foment govt policies that allow giant insolvent banks to allow 4 or 5 million people to stay in their mortgaged houses and not pay anything.

You can buy a lot of useless fanboi crap if you dont have to pay anything for your shelter costs.

And that is a tiny insignificant minnow compared to the 1.5 Trillion of borrowed money the govt pumped into the system in the last 12 months.

That 1.5 trillion ended up in SOMEONE'S pocket.

"My wife and I aren't engineers, but we would fit your model income-wise. That said, there is NO WAY we would ever pay 700k for a house."

Yes, but you prove my point.

A thinking rational human being would NEVER consider this. However, thinking human beings are very much in a small minority.

MOST people think getting a 30 year mortgage is a GREAT idea. That's why there are 44 million of them out there.

You think.

They don't.

You = 1 percent of the population (at best).

They = 99+ percent of the population

Equals - shitty BA houses being bought for 700k.

House prices are set by whatever BUYERS, at the present time, are willing to pay.

Yes, 8 million people, only 55% of which are in the labor force, then you can take out kids, illegals, retired etc. You can also take out anyone who bought a house in the BA before 1995. You can also take out anyone who has a shitty job that gets out bid by the engineers. That leaves us still with a crapload of engineers who can easily pony up 3 to 4k a month.

It is the high percentage of engineers + the limited supply because there is no room to build any more new houses in the BA any more + the current low interest rates that cause this.

There is a REASON a crappy house cost 700k in the BA and it is not Facebook or mystery Chinese or whatever retarded internet scam is the flavor du jour.

The JOBS that are here pay ENOUGH for a lot of people to pay a 3 or 4k a month mortgage. For the most part, the only JOBS in the BA that pay at that rate are engineers or those that supervise them or are dependent on their inventions (lawyers realtors investors etc).

kochevnik says

Those engineer and bureaucrat jobs tho, they exist right now because the govt/Fed is willing to overspend the natl budget by 40% each year.
When that stops, then the jobs go away, and when the jobs go away then BA house prices crater.
So in buying a BA house, your REAL bet is that the govt will be able to single-handedly continue to prop up the economy with borrowed money at a 40+ percent run rate, for the next 30 years.
Good luck with that.

Don't know how much of the engineering jobs depend on gummint money. But for the bureaucrat jobs in DC, you're probably right.

And let's be clear - I am not saying this is a rational market, in fact I am saying it is the OPPOSITE of a rational market.

But there are a lot of people out there who will DO something just because they CAN without ever considering if it is a good idea in the long term.

This is why this entire country is such a mess right now.

But it is, what it is. And it has not changed much in all the time I lived in the BA. I remember in 1999 the cheapest house I could find in Burlingame was some dump literally right next to the freeway that needed a total rebuild and it was 250k.

And then I realized I could never own a house there, so I left.

Maybe someday house prices there will come down, but if that happens, it's because there are no jobs there, and with that change is going to come a lot of social upheaval, so it will be cheap again because no one will want to live there.

So I guess be careful what you wish for LOL
Me, I want my kids to grow up in the country, away from the idiocy of suburbia - where they can get their hands dirty and build cool crazy stuff.

I can do that lots of other places in the US for cheap. What I cant do is do it in the BA - not unless I want to become a slave.

So no thanks.

"Don't know how much the engineering jobs depend on gummint money."

repeat after me

1.5 Trillion
1.5 Trillion
1.5 Trillion
1.5 Trillion
1.5 Trillion
1.5 Trillion
1.5 Trillion

It's not just pocket change and it goes places. Google is a place. Apple is a place. People spend money on useless tech crap. If they didnt, Silly Valley would not exist at all.

I would argue better than 80% of ALL engineer jobs depend on govt money of one sort or another - funnelled one place or another.

I know personally better than 80 percent of all the engineer jobs I have ever had depended on that money, and it is far worse now than it ever was.

Just follow the string.

kochevnik says

That IMO is the ENTIRE basis behind the BA house prices right there. A boatload of engineers, willing to bet they will be able to keep their jobs for the next 30 years and make those payments on time.

As long as Silly Valley has those engineer jobs, the prices there will stay up. And you can make the same argument for Washington DC and use average govt bureaucrat salaries.

There are around 200K people that work in tech in the BA.

The population is 7 million.

edit: myob beat me to it, though his tech #'s are bit different than mine. Either way, it's a drop in the bucket.

p.s. Where did you move to if you don't mind saying?

I have a few hundred K saved for a house, but I'm debating just leaving the rat race. So far, it's Washington or Oregon but I'll probably give it another year here (I like my job as well).

I'll keep my house in Santa Cruz and just visit from time to time.

kochevnik says

However, thinking human beings are very much in a small minority.

Pretty much, yes. And the politicians and businesspeople know this.

Politicians and businesspeople know the game: don't try to fix stupidity...profit from it.

kochevnik says

So I guess be careful what you wish for LOL
Me, I want my kids to grow up in the country, away from the idiocy of suburbia - where they can get their hands dirty and build cool crazy stuff.

I happened to grow up " in the country" in the rural South. Its not all peachy-keen either, if going by my own experiences. Not saying that you fit this description, but I have met my fair share of people from big cities who " want to get away from the rat race" and buy some sort of chunk of land in the sticks with this romantic notion of peaceful, quite country roads, friendly people, and so on and so on. That is pretty much a fantasy. let me just put it this way: My parents have lived on the same piece of land for almost 43 years. Locals still call their land by the last name of the previous owners that sold it to them.

Rent indeed can go down. My rent in South Bay went down by 22% a couple years ago (now going up). I have also reduced rent on my investment houses (other area) due to large supply of investor purchases. Betting that current house price (not over asking) is in line of rent give you very small error margin. Huge activity of investors purring new rental supply plus new rental development can bring rent down again (now it is a problem in Seattle).
The sad part is that proudly high salaries in S. Valley, actually do not buy you a luxury, but a very basic live standard where in over places uneducated people can enjoy. $500K house here is like $120K somewhere else. Living costs cheaper too. Silly Valley…

kochevnik says

The (ir)rationality is the same and it will not change because that is just the human nature of your average non-thinking human.

Yeah we humans just don't tend to think too far into future, too often just focused on immediate.

Those immediate gratification people may have a point, though. The ones that defaulted sometimes get a year or two of free rent while the foreclosure goes through, while the rest of us pay for it via reduced buying power of our savings. The ones who don't plan for the future are more numerous, and so, have more political clout :)

myob says

The ones who don't plan for the future are more numerous, and so, have more political clout :)

Ironic but is true. America is bailing out spendthrift, WS crooks and greedy toxic investors.