patrick.net

1sfrenter says

We're public school teachers. We are the middle class. Rent is expensive and owning is expensive.

No I am afraid that among those who wanna buy in a place in The Fortress, you are not middle class (I'm not either). Fortress priced seem like dirt cheap to the middle ranks of Fortress buyer folks like your fellow San Franciscan described in his post:

/?p=1210933&c=815880#comment-815880

I am in a similar boat. Renting with pets and kids in school makes ownership very attractive. That's an intangible that can't be measured by rent/buy calculators. However, where I am now, half of my rent covers prop taxes and my LL (who does not have a mortgage) is using the balance for maintenance reserves... It's a big, old house

I do think that rent buy calcs are useful if it's an investment decision (as opposed to a consumption one). I bought my first house in PDX and promptly got a too good to refuse job offer. That house rented for it's PITI for 2 yes then sold for a tiny net profit. Another house bought pre-bubble had a PITI of 75% of rent value. That one I sold at a big profit.

When I succumbed to the temptation to pay more than rental value due to appreciation and aforementioned pets and kids, I got burned.

So buy if the rental calcs make sense, or if you just don't care whether it's a good investment or not. In a perfect world, we would sign a 10 year lease at which point our kids would be thru schoollease on a SFH

Would be interested if anyone has obtained such a lease on a SFH

B.A.C.A.H. says

1sfrenter says

We're public school teachers. We are the middle class. Rent is expensive and owning is expensive.

No I am afraid that among those who wanna buy in a place in The Fortress, you are not middle class (I'm not either). Fortress priced seem like dirt cheap to the middle ranks of Fortress buyer folks like your fellow San Franciscan described in his post:

/?p=1210933&c=815880#comment-815880

What's amusing is you actually believe it.

If all that were true, "Fortress" homes wouldn't have dropped from their peak prices in the 1st place. Nothing about his post is any different than it has been for the past 10 years (just replace Facebook with Google).

Clearly there's not enough money to support the prices.

CrazyMan says

What's amusing is you actually believe it.

It would be amusing if it weren't true. I think SFAce has written about his relatives in some crowded expensive Asian place, about how much real estate costs there versus here. I think to what he wrote, here is a bargain. It certainly seems like a bargain compared to what I observed in areas around Taipei while commuting to there in the previous decade. Here is some of what he wrote in /?p=1210933&c=815880#comment-815880

SFace says

There is no sticker shock for most foreignors

SFace says

It doesn’t take a million dollar home to buy, just 250K and a good job,

SFace says

People Like Edvard see’s very little step-down moving from say BA to North Carolina. For the Asians, Indians, etc. it is a huge step-down

SFace says

Outside money is significant. Most foreign students who attended a university here/Canada are generally wealthy or moderately wealthy and most can place a phone call to mom and dad at home to wire 200K-300K easily

Which is the part that you do not believe?

None of it. You nor him ever have any data, at all. Just anecdotal heresay.

It's all garbage unless you can post data.

Yes my observations are all anecdotal. But SFAce did post data, that's why I referred to it. You just did not like his data so you lumped it in with the anecdotal heresy.

I agree with your attitude about the reasonable prices, etc., and like you I am not drinking the Cool Aid, that is why my partner and I never did buy in The Fortress and have no desire to do so. But for someone to bash my anecdotes and SFAce's data, well a Mandarin PhD engineer colleague who recently bought her Cupertino Schools Fortress Residence explained it to me, the ones who bash them are jealous.

Um there is not one single piece of data in his post, in which even he states are his observations. Please highlight actual verifiable data in his post (hint: you won't find any).

He may or may not be correct, but without any actual facts to backup the claims it's meaningless and disregarded.

And yes it's because I'm jealous (lol) and actually has nothing to do with the fact THAT THERE'S NO ACTUAL DATA TO BACKUP ANY OF THESE CLAIMS.

I'd like to add that the company I contract for is ~80% EE PHDs and quite frankly the majority of them have the common sense of a turnip.

Of course some of them are absolutely brilliant, but it stands for paid high dumbass for a reason.

CrazyMan...it IS true that housing here is a bargain for anyone that lives in HK and has any money. $1M will barely get you a 400SF condo in the desirable parts of that place. You can have all the cash in the universe and still not be able to get a house because there are so few of them in HK and they almost never go up for sale. Now, whether those people actually want to come here in any large number is another story entirely, but it is absolutely true that a Chinese person with money would see Bay Area RE as a deal.

I am not really sure WHY, but buying a house is even more dogmatic in Chinese culture. They are a pretty group-think society (not saying it is good or bad, just that it is what it is). You do well by conforming and not rocking the boat. So, there are a billion people over there convinced that buying a house is the only way that one can ever appear successful and (for males) attract a mate. Buying a house equates to safety & stability, and demonstrates that one is serious about making money & investing. Much of this mindless dogma carries right over here, and I see it a little among some of her family, and among some of her first-gen friends (spread by their zero-gen parents). Once they have been here a couple of generations, it usually subsides slightly to match the still idiotic fervor of white Americans.

My fiancee's father is worried, like REALLY worried, that we still rent. In his mind, not having a house prior to marriage just doesn't compute, and I imagine that he is embarrassed to tell friends/family in China (where he lives & works) that his daughter is marrying some American guy with no house. Over there, marrying a guy with no house is probably a social statement like, "well she's a nasty hag and that's probably the only option she'd ever have anyway, although you'd think she'd at least try find an UGLY guy with money!" Money & appearances are huge...it's an odd bastardization of eastern culture mixed with most of the worst parts of western capitalism. Sad, really.

With that said, not everyone there is like that. Most people are decent, hard working folks. It is the ones that have come upon a lot of money that generally seem to be the piles of crap. That's probably because you get rich by breaking rules and screwing over anyone and everyone, including family, to get the money. I have seen real life examples of this in my fiancee's family, and a number of my Chinese coworkers families. Anyway, most people there are good & hard working just like us. But, with a population of well over 1 billion, even if only 1% are bad apples, that is still over 25% of the US population worth of bad apples!

CrazyMan says

None of it. You nor him ever have any data, at all. Just anecdotal heresay.

It's all garbage unless you can post data.

+1111111111111111

sf ace is so full of shit and the sheeple just eat it up like crack. no data ever.

CrazyMan says

And yes it's because I'm jealous (lol) and actually has nothing to do with the fact THAT THERE'S NO ACTUAL DATA TO BACKUP ANY OF THESE CLAIMS.

I think that BACAH's point is that people of that culture assume that everyone aspires to live in a coveted place like cupertino. They would talk shit on someone that did if they didn't because they are jealous, and assume that anyone else that does has the same myopic view of life. He wasn't necessarily saying that YOU, or any culturally-American person is jealous.

CrazyMan says

I'd like to add that the company I contract for is ~80% EE PHDs and quite frankly the majority of them have the common sense of a turnip.

Of course some of them are absolutely brilliant, but it stands for paid high dumbass for a reason.

This is precisely why the BA is so ridiculously expensive. As I have been saying for a long time, you don't have to have any financial sense to make a lot of money. Start handing 6-figure salaries to people that find a way to live paycheck-to-paycheck, BEFORE buying a house, add 3.5% FHA loans & other creative instruments, and voila, you have stupid high RE prices!

Crazy,
Like bmwman bimmerman says, I am office mates with those folks but i don't drink their Cool Aid. I am more like you than like them but like bimmerman says it is what it is and many of them will diss you off inside of their minds as being jealous.
It's sad really when you think of it. In the extreme, we wind up with things happening like what happened at Siport or on the train tracks near a local high school.

When you guys say buy, you really mean borrow, right? I mean you don't actually have the money for the house... and if you did,.. then you would just borrow for a bigger house , right?

E-man says

You guys like to rent and save money. We like to buy real estate and save it. It's just a different form of saving.

Sure. I have no problem with anyone buying a house to LIVE in it, and to pass it on to children. That's what houses are supposed to be for. My gripe is with all the dummies that saw houses as ATM machines and quick money makers (and many that still do). Doling out loans to people that can barely save 2 months worth of income to buy $700k houses is also a big problem.

I wish to have a house someday for my own reasons (garage for woodworking & car projects, no attached walls so that I can fully enjoy my speaker-building hobbies). I rent apartments (relatively) cheaply to save money faster so that I can eventually buy what I want to live in. I could rent a house now, but that is prohibitively expensive!

bimmerman, your comments about your inlaws' values speak volumes about the outlook for your intended union.

Good luck.

B.A.C.A.H. says

bimmerman, your comments about your inlaws' values speak volumes about the outlook for your intended union.

Good luck.

I didn't mean to imply that my in-laws are the folks that I have a "cultural disagreement" with. Her dad is slowly understanding the whole idea that here, a house is just a house. Her family is mostly all here anyway, and has been since the 1980's, so they are about as American as anyone (except they seem to eat healthier lol). We all get along fine, and I never get hassled about the house thing personally (her dad nags her about it). Perhaps there was a little exaggeration on my part about her dad's outlook. The segment of her family that I have met is a bunch of nice good people. There is another segment that I have never met, and nobody talks to because they sort of put money before family in the past...and they live 6500 miles away so it isn't really an issue anyway. I wouldn't be marrying her if her family wasn't solid since you marry more than just the individual!

bmwman91 says

it IS true that housing here is a bargain for anyone that lives in HK and has any money.

RE prices in major cities of Asia is very expensive. For example, the price/rent ratio in Sentosa of Singapore is 764. S$17.6 mil (US$14.1 mil) for a house on a 8000 sqft lot size.

Source: http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/5447781/for-sale-warm-welcoming-balinese-style-bungalow.

Helloeeze says

... why do white guys marry Asian women so often?

And yet hardly any white gals marry Asian men?

bmwman91 says

Second, it is highly likely that all this FB IPO jazz will be largely done & over with by then. From talking to a friend that works there, they have to have their IPO in the next month or so, since employees can't sell until 6 months later. Well, the top tax bracket's tax cuts expire on 12/31/12, anf FB wants its employees to be able to sell off their vested RSUs before the rate goes up. So, the market will get a few hundred, or thousand perhaps, new-monied folks looking for houses right around election time, and I am willing to bet that they will have spent it on housing by the time the inauguration rolls around.

I don't know...in the IPO-rich 90's, I don't remember housing shooting up that much -- maybe the upper upper end will see a little thrust, but I think this is mostly an overplayed scenario.

For the original poster -- I'm in your boat. I just renewed the lease on my baby-shit green hovel, as I see nothing worth a damn out there, and no good lots to build on. I've been saving for the last four years. I had been saving and looking to buy in 2003-4, but backed away from that plan for obvious reasons. Spent the money on other stuff, and then started saving more seriously in mid-2008. Most of our salaries, plus every bonus, every ebay sale, every freaking onesy-twosy surplus. The biggest expense this year was paying my income taxes and replacing the transmission in my '89 Volvo. My savings habits have gone beyond frugality and well into abstemiousness. If most of Americans enjoy wealth effect, I enjoy something like poverty effect! The crisis I am encountering right now is that longer I defer gratification and live beneath my means in this way, the more my expectations rise in tandem. I find myself thinking, "is this really the dump it's all been for?" about places I would have readily considered even two or three years ago. I know I can't be alone in this.

E-man says

We're more than happy to work two jobs so we can pay-off our mortgage early

Most bay area real estate results in a 625k loan. No amount of multiple jobs will ever pay that off. In fact, the people I see with the most money do nothing, its unearned, massive bonuses or massive capital gains. Working like a dog is not going to pay off a house.

1sfrenter says

how long do you expect to wait?

Patrick designed and operates a website devoted to this question.
Our gubmint decided to manipulate prices to mitigate damage caused from over-lending & over-borrowing. We will never know who would have suffered the most between citizens & financial institutions, if gubmint did NOT intervene.
No one knows the exact year that Real property will once again begin to appreciate. But we ALL agree, values are still being artificially propped up by centralized gubmint. Hopefully, our grandchildren will not be asking why housing keeps falling ?
What OUR gubmint ignores is the fact, that banks lack morality. Does that make you wonder who the gubmint is working for ?
Miss a few payments ? banks demolish your home.
Gubmint gives bank your tax money.

Helloeeze says

Btw, why do white guys marry Asian women so often?

my own experience:
1. from the guy's perspective: asian women usually have less attitude than white women(less hassle)
2. from the asian girl's perspective: asian women want to be white and can move up in class (an economic decision). white guys are more generally masculine than asian guys making them more physically attractive

the guy and girl both see benefits, for the small price of getting used to a different race.

E-man says

We are not into selling to upgrade into a bigger home. We tend to keep the small home in the family or rent it out, but not sell it.

So, who was selling in Hong Kong, when house prices dropped 70% back in 97-03. Where these not Asian people?

Helloeeze says

Btw, why do white guys marry Asian women so often? What attracts men to marry a woman of a different culture?

Hysteresis says

asian women want to be white

from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_fetish

In 2007 economist Ray Fisman, in a two-year study he co-authored on dating preferences among Columbia University students, did not find evidence of a general preference among white men for Asian women. Furthermore, the study found that there is a significantly higher pairing of white men with East Asian women simply because East Asian women discriminate racially against Asian, Black and Hispanic/Latino men. As quoted on Slate.com,[14] and also reported in The Washington Post and the Review of Economic Studies (a publication of the London School of Economics):
“ We found no evidence of the stereotype of a white male preference for East Asian women. However, we also found that East Asian women did not discriminate against white men (only against black and Hispanic men). As a result, the white man-Asian woman pairing was the most common form of interracial dating—but because of the women's neutrality, not the men's pronounced preference. Men don't seem to discriminate based on race when it comes to dating. A woman's race had no effect on the men's choices.

The study was carried out over two years and was conducted by economists Ray Fisman (lead researcher from Columbia University) and Emir Kamenica (University of Chicago), as well as psychologists Sheena Iyengar (Columbia University) and Itamar Simonson (Stanford). They took data from "thousands of decisions made by more than 400 daters from Columbia University's various graduate and professional schools."[14]

It's no wonder why Tiger Moms will run themselves and their spouses ragged to secure their kids a slot in a school district that is free of blacks and hispanics.

bmwman91 says

There is another segment that I have never met, and nobody talks to because they sort of put money before family in the past...and they live 6500 miles away so it isn't really an issue anyway.

I laughed out loud when I read this because I could've written it myself, about some of my partners' remote relatives.

dunnross says

E-man says

We are not into selling to upgrade into a bigger home. We tend to keep the small home in the family or rent it out, but not sell it.

So, who was selling in Hong Kong, when house prices dropped 70% back in 97-03. Where these not Asian people?

The years after 1997 in HK are anomalous -- didn't people leave in droves when HK was given back to China?

B.A.C.A.H. says

They took data from "thousands of decisions made by more than 400 daters from Columbia University's various graduate and professional schools."[14]

i would think taking a sample strictly from Columbia University's graduate programs would bias the results - the sample is extremely educated compared to the general population. while racism exists at all levels, the less informed and less educated often have greater discriminatory biases.

Hysteresis, could be.

On the other hand, Bay Arean patrick.net bloggers are probably more akin to the Columbia cohort than your Bubba Belt cohort.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Hysteresis, could be.

On the other hand, Bay Arean patrick.net bloggers are probably more akin to the Columbia cohort than your Bubba Belt cohort.

columbia is a world renowned ivy league in NYC.

i'm not sure if patnet readers are closer to the bottom of the barrel or the top. maybe you're right and we're slightly closer to the top but then i wonder if we're just flattering ourselves. lol

The discussion has taken an interesting turn. By odd coincidence, my girlfriend was Chinese from Shanghai and she was perhaps the epitome of driven hard working and eventually bossy woman.
She insisted I was "throwing away" money but I resisted to take my *capital* and buy a place in Monterey or environs. I told her to come up here and commute down. Nope. She had other plans, her friends had parents and relatives come on long visits for vacation, etc.
She also had interesting stories from Shanghai. Her aunt asked her for money because her cousin had lost a shitload of money gambling. My gilfriend's Shanghai ex-fiance had blown his money in similar fashion, and with no money she told him to find another girl.
Everyone knows that if they had a huge chunk of change or income, etc. a house with a view would be the second purchase after a Lambo or BMW. The point is how much debt you want to service.
In this country, you can get ahead. The parents who plan on leaving fortunes to their children or houses, etc. to them are missing the point. Let them sink or swim unless of course they have an obvious handicap.
What I saw in her and some other ladies was the odd combination of frugality and savings while wanting to take huge financial risks also.
She told me why not buy a house in Vegas? Her friend had done so.
"Because I don't live in Vegas for one reason." I replied.
The pressure started in Oct. 2009 I think and later I would email her from time to time about the differences in AAPL price and house prices down in Monterey or Marina.
They joke in China about women from Shanghai being bossy, and that the men wash the woman's panties there.

Michinaga says

dunnross says

E-man says

We are not into selling to upgrade into a bigger home. We tend to keep the small home in the family or rent it out, but not sell it.

So, who was selling in Hong Kong, when house prices dropped 70% back in 97-03. Where these not Asian people?

The years after 1997 in HK are anomalous -- didn't people leave in droves when HK was given back to China?

And, I suppose, Japan was also anomalous.

What's also interesting is that in Japan there was so little supply and yet prices still fall.
My ex GF lived in a suburb of Tokyo. Her parents had to win a lottery to be privileged to buy their house. The house was pretty nice and the thing was probably worth a gazillion bucks around 1991.

clambo says

What's also interesting is that in Japan there was so little supply and yet prices still fall.

My ex GF lived in a suburb of Tokyo. Her parents had to win a lottery to be privileged to buy their house. The house was pretty nice and the thing was probably worth a gazillion bucks around 1991.

Exact same thing is gonna happen to USA. 2006 + 20 years. We have screwed ourselves for until 2025,whether we like it or not,that is what it will be.

bubblesitter says

clambo says

What's also interesting is that in Japan there was so little supply and yet prices still fall.

Exact same thing is gonna happen to USA. 2006 + 20 years.

Please refer to this chart: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&idim=country:JPN&dl=en&hl=en&q=population+in+japan#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:JPN:USA&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

Population of Japan hardly changed for the last twenty years. It is likely that the population of USA would continue to grow. Hence it is not likely that RE in USA would behave similarly as Japan.

hanera says

Population of Japan hardly changed for the last twenty years. It is likely that the population of USA would continue to grow. Hence it is not likely that RE in USA would behave similarly as Japan.

Well, let the population increase as much as you want but those newly populated(local or foreign born) will not have enough money to buy the overpriced shacks - hence continued decline in high priced RE.

Population increase does not matter,if most of that increase is in the middle class. Middle class will be toast in America for quite some time.

bubblesitter says

hanera says

Population of Japan hardly changed for the last twenty years. It is likely that the population of USA would continue to grow. Hence it is not likely that RE in USA would behave similarly as Japan.

Well, let the population increase as much as you want but those newly populated(local or foreign born) will not have enough money to buy the overpriced shacks - hence continued decline in high priced RE.

Since you've already decided that would happen, I've nothing to add.

hanera says

Since you've already decided that would happen, I've nothing to add.

Hey, I don't decide, it is solid analysis. Think about it. There is a million $ shack sitting to be occupied and there are 10 middle class buyers thinking to occupy it and you throw in another 10 to make it total 20 buyers. All 20 or original 10 won't afford insanely price RE. I don't see all 20 to get big pay raises to get to that million $ shack any time soon,instead they will be hit by high cost of living,health care etc. - Middle class is really a toast in America.

Bubblesitter,

First thing first, I do agree with you that prices in SV is insanely high. Also agree with you that middle class would find it increasingly difficult to buy (may be even rent) a house in SF Bay Area (I assume we're talking about SFBA, I'm not familiar with other places). That doesn't mean that house prices would be declining. House prices are influenced by availability of jobs, housing loan conditions (DP, interest rate), quality of schools, crime rates and existing established neighborhood conditions.