1
0

Why is Everyone Ignoring the Student Loan Bubble?


 invite response                
2011 May 3, 1:19pm   18,203 views  57 comments

by HousingWatcher   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Consdiering this is a forum full of people who claimed to spot the housing bubble before it burst, why is anyone not talking about the student loan bubble? Trust me, when it burst, it is going to be VERY ugly. You have thousands, if not millions, of bororwers out there whoa re going to default. It's just a matter of time.

Peter Thiel's College Bubble Theory Gains Few Believers

NEW YORK -- The average college graduate leaves school with $24,000 in debt and one in 10 are unable to find work of any kind. Recently, student loan debt exceeded credit card debt.

Much like the housing bubble, when home buyers took on outsized mortgages they were either lured into or which they knew they could ill afford, all in the service of realizing the American Dream of homeownership, students today are struggling with piles of educational debt assumed in service of a similar goal -- the American Dream of a college education.

According to the College Board, 70 years ago there were 1.5 million students enrolled at American universities. By 2006, that figure had swelled to more than 20 million. Meanwhile, the cost of tuition has grown steadily higher. Over the past 25 years, college tuition and fees have risen three times as fast as individual family income. And over the past decade, tuition has increased at a rate of 5.6 percent per year beyond the rate of general inflation.

Recently, with tuition costs rising and debt levels increasing, the skepticism has reached a boiling point.

Amid this backdrop, a Silicon Valley-based venture capitalist named Peter Thiel has inserted himself in a debate about whether a college bubble exists.

Namely, Thiel believes that a lack of innovation will result in long-term economic stagnation. He also argues that the housing bubble, which inflated the real estate market and sent prices soaring and finally crashing back to Earth, now threatens to dismantle higher education.

“A true bubble is when something is overvalued and intensely believed,” explained Thiel during a recent interview with TechCrunch. “Education may be the only thing people still believe in in the United States. To question education is really dangerous. It is the absolute taboo. It’s like telling the world there’s no Santa Claus.”

Thiel’s slant has infuriated some, and emboldened others. But is he right?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/03/college-bubble-burst_n_857082.html

#housing

« First        Comments 29 - 57 of 57        Search these comments

29   HousingWatcher   2011 May 5, 4:49am  

Corporations are hiring people... in China and India! I hope all of our software engieneer friends here don't enjoy their jobs too much. Pretty soon you might have to train your H1-B replacement!

30   Ptipking222   2011 May 5, 7:27am  

HousingWatcher says

For profit schools are not the problem. Your falling for a trap set by the higher education lobbyists to distract you from the real problem. Of the 100 most expensive colleges in the U.S., NONE of them are “for profit.”

They're not the root of the problem but they benefit from the high price/federal loan subsidization/guarantees endemic with the mainstream, non-profit schools.

It's like people in the medical device industry making millions due to the health care cost bubble/Medicare payments. They aren't the cause of the problem, but they make money off of the problem.

31   terriDeaner   2011 May 5, 7:33am  

Since the for-profit thing keeps coming up, I thought I'd point out an earlier thread that has relevant info:

For-Profit College infographic
http://patrick.net/?p=657973

What are the stats on relative successfulness for grads of profit vs. non-profit anyhow?

32   terriDeaner   2011 May 5, 7:34am  

shrekgrinch says

Bubbles aren’t about those details (who holds the bag, etc). There definition is much more simple. Here’s wiki’s explanation:
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

Good article.

33   leo707   2011 May 5, 10:11am  

terriDeaner says

Since the for-profit thing keeps coming up, I thought I’d point out an earlier thread that has relevant info:
For-Profit College infographic

http://patrick.net/?p=657973
What are the stats on relative successfulness for grads of profit vs. non-profit anyhow?

Yeah, I think the big problem with for-profits is the predatory recruitment aspect that is comparably non-existent in non-profit schools.

34   Vicente   2012 Apr 19, 5:40am  

I think the answer is simple.

WE DON'T CARE

The effect of student loan debt is less obvious. You default on your house you get booted out on the street. You can't pay back your student loans, they going to repo your education? No.

I think student debt is fine. It's self-balancing. If it's too heavy, well then they won't pay it. They'll NOT PAY in large enough numbers to put an end to the current looseness of student lending, then the tuition bubble will have been pricked.

If it's heavy but bearable, well other aspects of their financial life will suffer and they'll not dig that hole any deeper (go back for MBA) and they'll keep their kids out of it next time around.

The end.

35   Bap33   2012 Apr 20, 12:55am  

Human survival improves alot with safe shelter from climate and predators.
Human survival does not improve at all with a BA in liberal arts from Berzerkely.

It makes sense to go into debt to avoid death from exposure to climate or predators.

It make no sense to go into debt to get a degree in underwater metaphysical bong making.

Higher education is feeling the effects of the "welfare state of mind" in their system now. Enjoy.

36   Rin   2012 Apr 20, 4:20am  

The only true purpose of a college degree is to fulfill the HR (human resources) barrier of entry, into the white collar world.

Only a dozen years ago, a person with an associates degree could work as a paralegal. Today, that person would need to have a bachelors degree, even if it's in modern basket-weaving or ancient Etruscan bong making.

So what's changed, in the world of clerical work, where the undergraduate degree is the key to getting in the door? Pretty much nothing. It just creates an artificial barrier to justify the existence of personnel depts or the notion that white collar work is socioeconomic class-oriented.

37   freak80   2012 Apr 20, 4:59am  

Rin,

I think you've pretty much nailed it. A lot of it is a racket of artificial barriers to entry.

38   Rin   2012 Apr 20, 5:24am  

wthrfrk80 says

I think you've pretty much nailed it. A lot of it is a racket of artificial barriers to entry.

Yep, and thus, Thiel's argument is a bit off the mark.

There are only so many Michael Dells or Steve Jobs in the world. For the most part, anyone who isn't a part of a starting circle of biz executives, needs at least one qualification to be 'seen' in an office. If Mark Zuckerberg were to mysteriously have his FB equity be stolen, he wouldn't even be qualified to apply for a job at his former company.

What Thiel should argue for instead, is the elimination of HR depts, nationwide, and have people submit national exam scores, like a combination of SAT IIs/GRE subject tests, in lieu of a college degree, to prove that they're academically qualified to be shuffling paper in an office. People can study on their own, take exams, and submit exam scores for entry level jobs. After a generation, the college degree will in effect, become obsolete for a majority of office workers.

39   freak80   2012 Apr 20, 6:25am  

Rin says

What Thiel should argue for instead, is the elimination of HR depts, nationwide, and have people submit national exam scores, like a combination of SAT IIs/GRE subject tests, in lieu of a college degree, to prove that they're academically qualified to be shuffling paper in an office. People can study on their own, take exams, and submit exam scores for entry level jobs. After a generation, the college degree will in effect, become obsolete for a majority of office workers.

Agree, except that so many are invested in the current system (racket). It's sort of like how everyone is invested in Brawndo stock in the movie Idiocracy.

40   bmwman91   2012 Apr 20, 7:11am  

Rin says

What Thiel should argue for instead, is the elimination of HR depts, nationwide, and have people submit national exam scores, like a combination of SAT IIs/GRE subject tests, in lieu of a college degree, to prove that they're academically qualified to be shuffling paper in an office.

I think that this will just end up being the same thing as over-paying for college. There will be all sorts of American Standardized Scoring (ASS) prep-courses that only people with money, people that borrow a lot of money, or Asians will ever do well on. Standardized testing is a good idea in principle, but it is so wide open for being gamed that it inevitably becomes sort of worthless. What would be the difference between a hiring manager looking for "BA In Underwater Bong Making" and "ASS Score of 666+"?

41   PockyClipsNow   2012 Apr 20, 7:39am  

You guys need to start a for profit college to give out degrees in bong making or men kissing or afrolesbian studies or whatever. The feds will pay you wateva you want for tuition. Get in on the money makin!

42   Rin   2012 Apr 20, 8:12am  

bmwman91 says

Standardized testing is a good idea in principle, but it is so wide open for being gamed that it inevitably becomes sort of worthless.

But isn't the 'Game' ... the whole point?

At this moment, there are certification tests for Oracle D.B.A., Cisco Network Engineer, etc. All folks, in the aforementioned areas, are gaming for those exams. And then, the same goes for the Patent Agent or the Certified Public Accountant (CPA) exams.

The issue here is that the majority of the information, needed to score decent on exams, like the SAT2s or the GRE subject tests, are either on the Net (http://academicearth.org, http://ocw.mit.edu, etc) or the public library. Thus, the bubble of paying $80K to $200K for a BA is out the door, in place of something else, which can be done on the cheap.

And so while some "ASS scorers" may overachieve with 666+ with a lot of private tutors but in reality, I don't see that as any different than those, who'd spend 2-4 years prepping for the medical college admissions test (MCAT), which clearly comprises at least ~40% of one's admissions chances to a medical school. The end result is that in place of spending a fortune on college, you can submit a high "ASS", gain an internship, and if you do well at the job, you may even get an offer. And plus, at some point, let's say that "ASS" level is 550+, the higher the number has less predictive ability on how well a person may perform at a job. So all and all, it'll be more like this ... what's your internship record (i.e. research analyst for Motorola, 6 mos) and then, what's you "ASS" average? And that'll be enough of an assessment for a new worker bee.

43   Vicente   2012 Apr 20, 8:26am  

Rin says

At this moment, there are certification tests for Oracle D.B.A., Cisco Network Engineer, etc. All folks, in the aforementioned areas, are gaming for those exams.

Those don't mean shit any more.

People want to know you have EXPERIENCE in an area. They have plenty to pick from and don't need your freshly-printed CCNA paper.

44   Rin   2012 Apr 20, 8:36am  

Vicente says

People want to know you have EXPERIENCE in an area. They have plenty to pick from and don't need your freshly-printed CCNA paper.

Actually ... as time goes by, HR depts want to see a Cert exams, unless the college/grad degree is specifically Computer Science or Electrical Engineering, prior to assessing the experience base.

So it's kinda the same thing

Here's a sample resume ...

Experience:

5 years as Oracle DBA at Wyeth Pharmaceutical. Managed large schemas, migrated clinical data, integrated clinical and pre-clinical systems.

Credentials:

Certified Oracle DBA (Larry Ellison approved)
BA in Basket-weaving w/ Math & Economics minor

45   Rin   2012 Apr 20, 8:38am  

Rin says

Here's a sample resume ...

Experience:

5 years as Oracle DBA at Wyeth Pharmaceutical. Managed large schemas, migrated clinical data, integrated clinical and pre-clinical systems.

Credentials:

Certified Oracle DBA (Larry Ellison approved)
BA in Basket-weaving w/ Math & Economics minor

Thus, if the degree is Computer Science, the resume can simply be ...

Experience:

5 years as Oracle DBA at Wyeth Pharmaceutical. Managed large schemas, migrated clinical data, integrated clinical and pre-clinical systems.

Credentials:

BS Computer Science

Then, the cert matters less

46   Vicente   2012 Apr 20, 12:49pm  

I can tell you from having worked with people who write job descriptions, that certification as an absolute gate-level requirement is frequent where the job is "open" to a chosen applicant only. It doesn't matter that YOU have a CCNA, it matters that Jimbo's good friend Larry has one. The cert requirement fits Larry's resume to a T, and no matter how hard you try your application will not best it. It just guarantees you a pointless interview where everyone picks their nose and goes through the motions for HR.

47   zzyzzx   2012 Apr 23, 4:02am  

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Although I agree it may not be a bubble per-se

If there are more college graduates than there are jobs for them (that require the use of their degree), then there is most likely a bubble.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

a time will come when its cost far outweighs what it "should" when you look at the benefits of having said degree.

That time already came years ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-2-graduates-jobless-underemployed-140300522.html

1 in 2 new graduates are jobless or underemployed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The college class of 2012 is in for a rude welcome to the world of work.

A weak labor market already has left half of young college graduates either jobless or underemployed in positions that don't fully use their skills and knowledge.

Young adults with bachelor's degrees are increasingly scraping by in lower-wage jobs — waiter or waitress, bartender, retail clerk or receptionist, for example — and that's confounding their hopes a degree would pay off despite higher tuition and mounting student loans.

An analysis of government data conducted for The Associated Press lays bare the highly uneven prospects for holders of bachelor's degrees.

Opportunities for college graduates vary widely.

While there's strong demand in science, education and health fields, arts and humanities flounder. Median wages for those with bachelor's degrees are down from 2000, hit by technological changes that are eliminating midlevel jobs such as bank tellers. Most future job openings are projected to be in lower-skilled positions such as home health aides, who can provide personalized attention as the U.S. population ages.

Taking underemployment into consideration, the job prospects for bachelor's degree holders fell last year to the lowest level in more than a decade.

bout 1.5 million, or 53.6 percent, of bachelor's degree-holders under the age of 25 last year were jobless or underemployed, the highest share in at least 11 years. In 2000, the share was at a low of 41 percent, before the dot-com bust erased job gains for college graduates in the telecommunications and IT fields.

Out of the 1.5 million who languished in the job market, about half were underemployed, an increase from the previous year.

Broken down by occupation, young college graduates were heavily represented in jobs that require a high school diploma or less.

In the last year, they were more likely to be employed as waiters, waitresses, bartenders and food-service helpers than as engineers, physicists, chemists and mathematicians combined (100,000 versus 90,000). There were more working in office-related jobs such as receptionist or payroll clerk than in all computer professional jobs (163,000 versus 100,000). More also were employed as cashiers, retail clerks and customer representatives than engineers (125,000 versus 80,000).

According to government projections released last month, only three of the 30 occupations with the largest projected number of job openings by 2020 will require a bachelor's degree or higher to fill the position — teachers, college professors and accountants. Most job openings are in professions such as retail sales, fast food and truck driving, jobs which aren't easily replaced by computers.

48   bob2356   2012 Apr 23, 5:51am  

Vicente says

I can tell you from having worked with people who write job descriptions, that certification as an absolute gate-level requirement is frequent where the job is "open" to a chosen applicant only. It doesn't matter that YOU have a CCNA, it matters that Jimbo's good friend Larry has one. The cert requirement fits Larry's resume to a T, and no matter how hard you try your application will not best it. It just guarantees you a pointless interview where everyone picks their nose and goes through the motions for HR.

“Eagles are dandified vultures” - Teddy Roosevelt

That's also a perfect description of how H1B's work. I like seeing ads for people with a CE masters degree, 3 years experience, fluent in manderin, willing to work for 30k. I can see why there were no "qualified" US applicants.

49   Rin   2012 Apr 23, 7:12am  

Yes, in summing up the various posts above ... the college degree, BA in { X, Y, Z }, is really for the human resources dept.

In reality, many high schoolers, with a modicum of intelligence, can do at least half the white collar jobs out there. This is possibly one of the greatest *open secrets* out there, which no one wants to acknowledge formerly.

Thus, it's not so much a college bubble but it's more that the majority can't accept that college is worthless, for a vast pool of the educated population. If a person simply wants to attend college, to be 'seen' as being smart, well, that's one thing but to have a college degree, simply because it satisfies an artificial checklist of sorts, is another.

50   zzyzzx   2012 Apr 24, 1:05am  

Rin says

Thus, it's not so much a college bubble but it's more that the majority can't accept that college is worthless, for a vast pool of the educated population. If a person simply wants to attend college, to be 'seen' as being smart, well, that's one thing but to have a college degree, simply because it satisfies an artificial checklist of sorts, is another.

I think we have a winner here!!!!

51   AD   2023 Nov 15, 10:04pm  

.

looks like student loans balance is reversing course and dropping since first quarter of this year



.
52   Patrick   2023 Nov 16, 8:47pm  

Could just be a reporting artifact, a delay in the numbers arriving.
53   AD   2023 Nov 16, 8:53pm  

Patrick says

Could just be a reporting artifact, a delay in the numbers arriving.


good point, but they could use a projection and then adjust it later when the actual numbers are available

.
54   WookieMan   2023 Nov 17, 2:51am  

Patrick says

Could just be a reporting artifact, a delay in the numbers arriving.

I think fewer people are choosing to go to college. And boomers are also dying now with a decent chunk having assets the kids will inherit. The boomers with assets likely were smart to save and pushed college on the kids. Same with grandparents dying. This always happened of course, but the numbers are just greater than in the past which is why I think people are dumping the debt sooner

I've noticed colleges seem desperate for students. I have about 5-6 friends with college aged kids that applied everywhere and got accepted everywhere no problem. Nice kids but not the sharpest knives in the drawer. Put this way, I wouldn't have been accepted to half the colleges they got into. I think it's literally a 4 year party bill at this point and it's been dumbed down outside of STEM fields.

My 2¢. Could be wrong but that's what I've observed since covid and seeing friends kids go off to school.
55   AD   2023 Nov 17, 9:20am  

WookieMan says


I think fewer people are choosing to go to college.


Need to track enrollment numbers or college students population such as through the Census Bureau.

Also, find out about colleges and universities merging, downsizing or shutting down due to diminishing enrollment like St Paul's College in Virginia.

There may be more students going to community colleges for the first 2 years in order to save money (and they do not have to take borrow as much student loan money).

.
56   Misc   2023 Nov 18, 5:59pm  

The loan amount outstanding is dropping not because people are paying them off, but because Biden has been forgiving billions upon billions of dollars of loans.
57   AD   2023 Nov 18, 10:43pm  

Misc says

The loan amount outstanding is dropping not because people are paying them off, but because Biden has been forgiving billions upon billions of dollars of loans.


good point ..there is now $1.737 trillion in student debt ... Biden admin wrote off about 7% of student debt (or $127 billion) ... I wonder how much more is Biden going to forgive in student debt and what happens if a Democrat wins the White House in 2024 ....

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

" Biden has managed to erase $127 billion in student debt so far for more than 3.5 million borrowers — more than any other president in history. His administration has used existing programs that were previously hard to access for many borrowers to deliver that relief."

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/29/biden-administration-has-forgiven-127-billion-in-student-debt.html#:~:text=Still%2C%20Biden%20has%20managed%20to,borrowers%20to%20deliver%20that%20relief.

« First        Comments 29 - 57 of 57        Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste