patrick.net

Housing shit the bed, and we still working on gettin all the stains out. Bobby Shiller says it's probably better off if you keep renting from Jody for a spell...

"Recent research by Robert Shiller indicates sounding the all-clear for a housing recovery is premature since the home-price rebound, if that's what it is, doesn't yet have momentum - which is the most powerful driver of home prices. As he notes in today's WSJ, momentum is a modestly weak force in the stock market but the most important driver of the 'feedback loop' in home-price increases (followed by unemployment). "It could be a bottom, I just don't know", he adds pointing to the large overhang of homes that are either in foreclosure of near it - which would push prices down further if they were ever released to the market (wanting to see momentum carry into the Spring to be convinced). Critically, he sees bubbles once again forming in some areas, commenting that investors have been "primed to think speculatively" adding that "There was a change in our mindset. Now we start thinking about the housing market as like the stock market." Our question is, if the increasingly speculative housing market is part of the CPI basket, why then is the stock market not also part of what is now an inflationary basket chock full of QE-sensitive assets."

http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2012/08/06/is-this-the-end-of-the-housing-bust-not-so-fast-says-shiller/

IOW the same numbuts what are pouring $$ $ into they 401K are the ones buying primary residences.

duckhead says

WHY DO YOU PEOPLE EVEN GET UP IN THE MORNING???? Seriously, you’ve got accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative don’t mess with mr. in between!!! Buy as many houses as you can and rent them to doomer loser’s like yourselves and you will be RICH IN NO TIME. BAZOOMBA

What he said...

David Losh says

I can rent it out to recoup some of the interest I had to pay, or more likely sell it, so I can trade up.

You're not going to be trading up anytime soon junior.

I can see into the future but I'm not telling anyone about what's about to happen.

There is an obvious floor in prices, and much of the low end inventory that's hitting the market is at that floor. ( So they ain't going lower)

When my net income on renting a property out is 10% (I can recoup the purchase price in 10 years after all expenses), then investors will buy and it will hold the price.

By this measure, mid-range and some higher end properties still have a ways to fall, but low end properties are pretty near bottom.

HEY YOU says

an see into the future but I'm not telling anyone about what's about to happen.

You don't need a crystal ball -- just basic numeracy will do.

HEY YOU says

I can see into the future but I'm not telling anyone about what's about to happen.

Spoiler: We all die.

why do people think that if you buy a house, and hold on to it long enough, it will magically appreciate in value? That's pretty backwards assed, when you stop and think about that over a long enough stretch of time,,,,,,

errc says

Put that house on a postage stamp lot in Atherton or Woodside and it'd STILL get at least a mil

and in ten years, it will certainly be worth ten million!

errc says

why do people think that if you buy a house, and hold on to it long enough, it will magically appreciate in value? That's pretty backwards assed, when you stop and think about that over a long enough stretch of time,,,,,,

Ever since Y2K... that has been the ongoing thinking ! I certainly dont know where they came up with this nonsense.

Call it Crazy says

Don't you know..... everyone buys a house and lives in it for at least 30 years... then they are rich when it's paid off free and clear!!

Bubble prices were about selling their home and early retirement.
Not sure how buyers could fall for paying for both!

Why would anyone want to pay 200-300% vs few years prior.

Call it Crazy says

Isn't that what every realtor tells you to get you to buy??

yes, some crazy thing about "forced savings"... fast forward.. no savings there, but the exact opposite.

hey what happened to 401K,IRA, cash savings accounts, investment , etc...

Big Sur/Carmel Street Report

Lots of inventory, for sale signs growing like weeds, prices are slipping but no bites because prices are still much much too high. Very few sales. It's going to be a long winter.

Massive Housing Inventory says

Big Sur/Carmel Street Report

Lots of inventory, for sale signs growing like weeds, prices are slipping but no bites because prices are still much much too high. Very few sales. It's going to be a long winter.

Yep, the enormous total of 29 properties listed on Redfin for below $1m for the Carmel, Big Sur and Carmel Valley area. And that includes 11 that are pending. It's a veritable tsunami.

RentalWatch says

Per movoto, there is over 1000 houses for sale in the Carmel area. Given the inflated prices, this should be no surprise.

Strange. I just went to Movoto and typed in 93923 and SFH and got a grand total of 48 results (actually 100 if you untick the 'has photos' box)- with no maximum price. Redfin shows 213 listings doing the same search.

Edit: Just done the search again on Movoto and it's showing 162 listings. Don't know what's up with the site. Still rather a long way from over a 1000 though.

RentalWatch says

You "typed in 93923"????

This is how you're going to misrepresent this one too?

Nice try.

It's called a zip code. Guess where for?

So let me get this straight, your response to being shown to be a liar about the situation in Carmel is to post up a graph that shows you don't know where 2004 is. Well done.

RentalWatch says

Obfuscate you coward!

That is just another one of their ACTS.

READ AN LEARN MORONS

It has all happened before, here is the story they don't want you to know about. Let's see the fault found with this FACT of the all too conveniently forgotten REAL ESTATE BOOM AND COLLAPSE OF 1926

http://www.library.hbs.edu/hc/crises/forgotten.html

JodyChunder says

ritically, he sees bubbles once again forming in some areas, commenting that investors have been "primed to think speculatively" adding that "There was a change in our mindset. Now we start thinking about the housing market as like the stock market." Our question is, if the increasingly speculative housing market is part of the CPI basket, why then is the stock market not also part of what is now an inflationary basket chock full of QE-sensitive assets."

Bingo! as usual, Shiller hits it!