Heraclitusstudent's comments

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  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 9, 4:26pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

South Korea is currently in a sweet spot because:
1 - Smart, educated, and with a culture of super competitive hard work, humility, and self-sacrifice.
2 - not as expensive as US or Japan - so manufacturing of advanced electronics still exists
3 - they had more time under the capitalist system than China to develop.

If NK doesn't nuke them, they will be hit full force when China works its way up Samsung's ass.
Though of course they will work their way up Apple's.
So... we'll know soon enough whose kicking whose ass.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 9, 5:14pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

It makes sense. Everyone likes San Jose. Prices will continue like this forever.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 10:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

China is known to pay lips service "yeah we're gonna liberalize and remove tariffs" and then continue exactly as before.
Don't fall for that crap.
It will take years of high drama negotiations to push the needle even a bit.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 10:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

The trade deficit problem cannot be solved by removing a few tariffs in China. There is a saving deficit in the US and unless this is addressed, industries in China facing tariffs will move in some other cheap countries.

The issue that matters most is respect of intellectual property. But this is hard to enforce or verify, especially in the long term. I doubt he can address this with a 1 time threat of tariffs. This will be on-going for a long time.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 10:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

"most of the pledges were reiterations of previously announced reforms"
"Analysts have cautioned that any Chinese concessions on autos, while welcome, would be a relatively easy win for China to offer the United States, as plans for opening that sector had been under way well before Trump took office. "
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 10:46am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

"Chinese officials have been promising since at least 2013 to ease restrictions on foreign joint ventures in the auto industry, which would allow foreign firms to take a majority stake. They currently are limited to a 50 percent stake in joint ventures and cannot establish their own wholly owned factories.

Tesla’s Chief Executive Elon Musk has railed against an unequal playing field in China and wants to retain full ownership over a manufacturing facility the company is in talks to build there. "

> Even a minority stake in a joint ventures would likely allow the Chinese to have access to technologies sufficiently to duplicate them.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 11:29am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Though you never know. Maybe Zuck will lose it, start sweating heavily, take off his hoodie (the one with mission printed on the inside), and insult congressmen... mentioning all the money they took from him to let him do it.

  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 2:32pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

What does it say about the economy we are living in?
Some people need that $800 / day to live like they are living today. The local taxes are based on this. Some pensions and retirements are based on this. Some restaurants and other parts of the service economy are based on it. Maybe even some high earners salaries are based on this.
And who pays for it? Most likely mortgage debts.

In the end, this is the real reason home prices are going up.

What happens when we go the other way? Interest rates start rising, debt dries up, cash is used to repay debt, etc.... Helicopter money will save us?
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 10, 5:11pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

pkennedy says
The cost of payroll to get that top talent, and talent that's constantly rubbing against other top talent is worth it. You simply don't get that anywhere else, and if you want to be able to build and scale, you need everyone on the same page, doing the same things, producing the same way. That's not possible in other parts of the world, if it was, we would see tech success all over the place, but in general, it's coming out of the bay area.

Top talent is... what? some young engineers out of school with no track record? Really different in SV than anywhere else?
Btw FB was not founded in the Bay Area.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 11, 10:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Goran_K says
You would be hard pressed to find members of either political affiliation that want more homelessness, more gun deaths, or more racism.

Right... Reps don't want these things. They just want even less do anything to change them.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 11, 11:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsPlissken says
Nothing can be done. Let's just keep the Trade Deficit, which is inexorably tied to Budget Deficits (since offshored factories pay no tax, their non existent workers pay no tax, but the infrastructure and permanent costs still need to be paid with a smaller tax base).

The solution to the trade deficit without tariffs is simple: slap a 25% VAT on all manufactured goods, and lower payroll taxes by an equal amount to make it up for US employers.
(i.e. stop punishing work and start punishing consumption in the US)

If China complains, tell them it's an internal policy and the US will not be bullied by anyone.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 11, 1:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

justme says
justme says
That blond woman in green sitting behind Zuck needs to be replaced with someone that know how to behave seriously on camera. If FB has any sense, she will NOT be there tomorrow.

The media handlers got rid of her (or moved her)

She wasn't uncrossing her legs strategically when Zuck struggled to answer questions?
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 11, 2:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

An article obviously targeted at fat women and their egos... One has to sell advertising one way or an other.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 11, 5:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

The same is true for the air force. If you can build an autonomous car, there is no reason you can't build swarms of autonomous aircraft fighters.
I pity the poor fools still fighting 20th century's style.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 9:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Reality says
What's the range of those aquatic drones? If it has to carry enough fuel to travel multiple hundreds of miles, the drone is not going to be small. The future of naval warfare might belong to submarine carriers of drones.

Exactly, they could be carried by submarines.

Also you can imagine that they could have solar panels and batteries and float around to recharge, then dive when needed.

You could have thousands of these spread in the oceans, or have them follow targets, or have them sink at the bottom in strategic locations waiting for a signal or a target to go through. You could have various versions, some more like torpedoes: fast and loaded with explosives, some more like smart mines, some small and slow and hard to detect for detection purpose, etc....

Just let your imagination run.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 10:00am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Satoshi_Nakamoto says
Heraclitusstudent says
If you can build an autonomous car

Not there yet.

Yes but driving a drone in the ocean is arguably much more simple than driving a car in a city.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 10:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

There are cops and firefighters that are millionaires.
There are homeowners that have achieved nothing in their lives that are millionaires.
There are actors and athletes that are multi-millionaires.
Some investors that haven't done squat outside buying and selling paper are billionaires.

Why wouldn't a national politician that has been in a key position of power for a long time not be multi-millionaire?
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 10:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

HeadSet says
Anyone who can invest their salary wisely should reap the benefits. But if you are a politician who got rich with no such activity then your wealth came through laundered bribes.

What bribes are you talking about?

The guy has been doing one of the most critical jobs in the country. (and this is not a question of agreeing with him)
I think he deserves a salary at least equivalent to a CEO of a fortune 500 company.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 12:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

And Elon Musk is worried about the AI alignment problem.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 1:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsPlissken says

That's the reason they make 6 figures + all expense paid + cushy retirement.

They don't need more avenues to wealth, they need more control, like no IPOs and all elected officials must place their wealth under professional management at arm's length.

I agree with that. I just object to some people here wanting politicians to get low salaries just because this is "taxpayers money".

The same people see no problem when the CEO of their companies gets a $50 millions package for a few years of work - eating up their own bonuses, as well as shareholders returns - in a wink wink agreement with the board. But they scream because a guy like Ryan ends up a "multi-millionaire" after an entire career.

All part of the cliche that gov sucks - always - but corporations rule.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 2:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

pkennedy says
It's more like people don't like it when politicians are paid $200K and walk away with millions a few years later. That math doesn't work out, unless they've been skimming the cheating the system and the people they're working for. That is what irks people.

I get that, but what is legal (or at least moral) is ultimately what we agree is fair. So when a CEO skims $50 millions from shareholders in spite of fiduciary duty, is that legal? moral?
How does a national leader getting a million here and there rate in comparison?
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 4:36pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

TwoScoopsPlissken says
Your health is in the toilet and you cannot do your jobs.

Very few people in a position of power have resigned over a health issue.
Many try to maintain their grip even on their death bed.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 12, 4:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
I don't think this will work out since Trumps presidency so far has been relatively successful and his approval rating is rising. The dissatisfaction was more with mainstream Republicans and Democrats.

Very few people who have tasted power just give it up and leave.
He surely has a plan to come back and there aren't many position higher up than speaker.
Probably betting dems will win mid terms and Trump will be impeached and thrown in a mental hospital or something.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 13, 11:18am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

WookieMan says
Pure click bait garbage and everyone knows it. Fatty's will check it out. And hotties will check it out to see what it's all about. Every dude will check it out. Solid marketing, really. Unfortunately you can't unsee that or get your time back.

Nope and some links you really wished you had not clicked.
You were warned!
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 18, 11:41am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote
SACRAMENTO — Just before a committee of California state senators voted on a landmark bill to ramp up housing production by overriding local resistance, legislator after legislator talked about a dire affordable-housing crisis that demanded bold action and a marked increase in new building.

Then they killed the bill.

The vote here on Tuesday evening highlighted the emergence of California’s housing and homeless problem — and the fraught question of how to address it — as a potent election-year issue that promises to dominate the state’s politics for years.

The ferocity of that debate was on display throughout a meeting of the State Senate’s Transportation and Housing Committee, which met to vote on a divisive bill that would force local governments to accept higher-density projects around transit centers like train stations.

The bill, called S.B. 827, was introduced by Scott Wiener, a Democrat from San Francisco, and would have allowed developers to build five-story condominiums and apartment buildings near rail stops, even if local governments and zoning codes prohibited developments of that size.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 18, 12:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

LeonDurham says
Except historically, that's simply not true. It just isn't.

Historically not true? What were prices in real term during the 70s?

We just went through 38 yrs of declining rates. If they start rising now, it matters for all leveraged assets and for p/e ratios in general.
It's a reversal that will ripple through the economy.

Patrick says
1. higher interest rates reduce the price a buyer can pay

Investors won't invest in properties that return 3% when you can get an easy 5% elsewhere without dealing with tenants. Some retired people may sell investment properties to invest somewhere else. Some people may prefer to sell and rent, if they can make more money on their capital somewhere else and cash the difference with the rent.

What rates cannot change is the scarcity of housing.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 18, 1:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Ideally we should be able to disagree with someone without wishing them dead.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 18, 2:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

LeonDurham says
Heraclitusstudent says
What were prices in real term during the 70s?

In real terms it went mostly sideways,

Remove the boom and bust and the picture is clear.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 18, 6:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

lostand confused says
a quarter of Japanese men over 30 have never had sex!

What about the women? They all go after the same bad boys?
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 19, 2:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Used to be people were proud of their president's achievements, smarts, integrity, dignity, etc...
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 19, 2:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Ceffer says
Yeah, historically, Poland is like the guy in the bar who gets caught between a couple of nasty 300 lb. pugilists. Germany and Russia would alternatively advance, rape, pillage, burn and then withdraw, rape, pillage, burn in each direction across Poland. It's amazing they have kept any cultural identity at all.

In some ways the Polish are just Russians that are catholic instead of orthodox, and use a mostly latin alphabet instead of Cyrillic.
They eat borscht and drink Vodka too.
They will hate me for saying that.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 19, 2:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Not sure about Ukrainians.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 20, 10:30am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Patrick says
The whole point of the H1B program seems to be to enable big employers undercut US wages with half a million obedient workers

The point is to boost growth in this industry by having more people in technical jobs, and fostering a richer tech ecosystem.
We are flooded with totally unskilled illegal immigrants, but we make life harder for a few tens of thousands legal immigrants than for 10+ millions illegal immigrants.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 20, 10:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

"cheap labor": You could indeed limit the number of workers in the US: some local companies would pay more and be at a disadvantage globally, multinationals would just move offices abroad. There won't be much job growth in a profession where you can move products almost instantly across frontiers. The only question is how do you capture as much of it as possible.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 20, 10:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

MisterLefty says
Europe’s native population is not just aging, it is disappearing.

You see it on these board: men complaining about how demanding women are, and yes women waiting to have a full flush in hand to have children, almost half of them reaching age 40 with no kids.

Western culture is dying. White people are an evolutionary dead end - except maybe Mormons.

2100: 13 million poles. Maybe what? 150 millions whites in Europe? 5 billions in Africa. A Neanderthal-like trace in human DNA.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 20, 12:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

CovfefeButDeadly says
The commonalty among successful civilizations is family, religion, and warfare. When a country loses these institutions it is headed for the ashbin of history.

Keep in mind Poland is a highly religious country, with 95% or so of people being catholic.
Also Pakistan is very big on family, religion, and warfare and still not much of a civilization.
China is not big on family and religion but much more advanced.

Luckily atheism is the fastest spreading religion in the world.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 20, 4:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Weapons make republicans feel safe while they are being robbed blind.
  Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Apr 24, 4:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

It's totally intended: they don't want to people with upside down mortgages and banks holding bad assets.
The inflation of their economic status quo bubble depends on it.

The problem is it can't go on forever, and we're already past its useful phase.

The Housing Trap
You're being set up to spend your life paying off a debt you don't need to take on, for a house that costs far more than it should. The conspirators are all around you, smiling to lure you in, carefully choosing their words and watching your reactions as they push your buttons, anxiously waiting for the moment when you sign the papers that will trap you and guarantee their payoff. Don't be just another victim of the housing market. Use this book to defend your freedom and defeat their schemes. You can win the game, but first you have to learn how to play it.
115 pages, $12.50

Kindle version available

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