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Strategist's comments

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Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 7, 9:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

200,000+ jobs created.
7% unemployment rate! lowest in years.
Stock market cheering all the way.
Looks pretty good to me.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 7, 9:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

There is a severe shortage of homes, especially since very little was built in the last 6 years. People from all over the world are desperate to buy American real estate. Interest rates are still too damn low.
We are in a boom unlike anything you have ever seen.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 7, 9:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

zzyzzx says

What about the mouth?
Entry or no entry?

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 7, 9:45am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Quigley says

It would seem ridiculous, since those have traditionally been viewed as kid jobs or starter jobs, worked by those too new to the workforce or unskilled to be worth more than minimum wage. But later I've seen a preponderance of adult workers in these jobs, and not all immigrant appearing. Considering that these jobs pay so low as to be nearly eclipsed by welfare benefits, and are hard work besides, shouldn't they make more money? In any case, grass roots union organizing is what this nation needs. For too long unions have been oby represented by crony public employee unions. It's time for a resurgence of the workers rights movement to address income inequality.

Fair wages can only be determined by the marketplace. Anything else will be unfairly passed on to consumers like me. Sure, I want everyone to make twice as much, but I don't want to pay for it.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 7, 9:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

curious2 says

Strategist says

People from all over the world are desperate to buy American real estate.

Just yesterday, I was nearly trampled by a stampede of buyers' brokers representing Chindian billionaires who wanted a 1br in Bayview (gangland). Psy has popularized Gangnam Style so effectively that everyone on earth wants in on that action. Secretaries in Saigon dream of someday retiring to Bayview, where sweet staccato gunfire can lull their grandchildren to sleep.

Locations where every one want to go to will always have ever rising real estate prices. Places like Detroit where no one wants to be in will always have declining real estate prices.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 7, 10:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

curious2 says

Strategist says

Detroit

...was, for many years, a place where many people wanted to go. That's why they built so many nice houses there. Then, things changed, and people didn't want to go there anymore. The lesson: sometimes locations where everyone wants to go, can become places nobody wants to go, and then rising prices become falling prices. This lesson is worth remembering when people tell you real estate can only go up, that it doesn't matter what price you pay, because someone else will surely pay more, etc. Real estate has tremendous inherent risk because you can't control what will happen in the area, and you can't pick up your real estate and leave. If a major local employer relocates elsewhere, and the "drug war" turns your town into a killing field, the bottom can fall out of your investment.

You are right, desirable places can turn around just like fashion.
Yet, everyone wants to come to America, especially to California. It's been like that for a long time, and does not look like it's ending anytime soon.
How many people in California who complain about high real estate prices are willing to settle down in Detroit? I don't know any.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 8, 12:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

Tim Aurora says

1. Home is an appreciating asset while car is a depricating asset

How many 1oo yrs old houses do you see around you?

Houses do have a limited lifetime, and are in fact depreciating.

I don't know in what sense one could say that a home is an "appreciating" asset.

A home is a commodity. More can be built as needed. Building costs are not increasing faster than inflation. And there is a lot of land to build. There is absolutely no rational reason for home prices to "appreciate" over time, in real terms - except maybe from a speculative perspective.

Some places have a shortage of land and are always in high demand. Prices here will continue to outperform all other places. New York, London, Paris, coastal California to name a few. If you buy and hold in these locations, you will come out ahead in the long run.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 8, 1:02am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Tim Aurora says

FortWayne says

Plenty of people are living paycheck to paycheck

That is a cultural issue with America. People are living so much at the edge that with a little push they can fall into dire straits. Npt Obama's fault nor it is Bush's

They have no one to blame but themselves. I have seen a doctor couple with a negative net worth, and I have seen a garbage collector with his little home paid off. Makes you wonder which one is really smarter.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 8, 1:11am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

The moral of the story is get yourself the right education, or be happy with welfare.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 8, 1:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

mell says

Strategist says

Some places have a shortage of land and are always in high demand. Prices here will continue to outperform all other places. New York, London, Paris, coastal California to name a few. If you buy and hold in these locations, you will come out ahead in the long run.

Outperform like in 2008? This time is different! ;)

Not different at all. Over a period of 10 to 20 years you will come out ahead, with the 2008 crash being the greatest buying opportunity since the Great Depression.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 8, 1:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Mel says:
You can say that about everything that tracks inflation and is supported heavily by the Fed/gov. monetary "policies" (= counterfeiting). That's why the DOW is at all time highs. As long as there is no fundamental economic prosperity the next crash is always lurking around the corner. Stocks at least you can sell with the click of a button, houses are far more illiquid and therefore riskier. Of course if you have the time and the talent to be a landlord that can change the dynamic in your favor.

You probably could. The 2008 crash was a half off sale on something guaranteed to go up over time. It happened before, and no doubt will happen again.
I'll be waiting for the next one with a bag full of money. Hopefully 10 years from now.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 9:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

There is a severe shortage of homes, especially since very little was built in the last 6 years. People from all over the world are desperate to buy American real estate. Interest rates are still too damn low.

We are in a boom unlike anything you have ever seen.

Is this an Iwog Alt screen name???

Nope. I'm even worse.
:)

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

So what's the solution?

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:13pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

These protestors are angry and bitter. Angry and bitter people make bad workers.
They should be fired.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

bgamall4 says

Strategist says

So what's the solution?

House prices have to decline, to reflect the loss of wage power. In the meantime, families have to band together to live multigenerationally or with siblings or many will die very poor.

Falling house prices will mean less construction of new homes, which means a shortage of homes, which means higher rents.
Are you sure you want that?

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:18pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

Bellingham Bill says

Poe's Law arrives

Who's Poe?

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:23pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

A big house like that, in a wonderful area like that, with a rate that low.
I wish I had that problem.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

So how do we eliminate the deficit?
Cut welfare.
Cut tax loop holes.
Tax the crap out of fossil fuels, fast foods and sodas.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:44pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

bgamall4 says

Strategist says

Falling house prices will mean less construction of new homes, which means a shortage of homes, which means higher rents.

Are you sure you want that?

Well, eventually household formation will stop if rents rise. Then the banksters may as well slit their wrists. Here is the problem, housing has been pumped up by the wealthy, and is distorted compared to demand and wages. I don't know the answer, but high house prices can't exactly reduce rents, either.

I have no problems with bankers slitting their wrists, It ain't my blood that will flow.
There is no such thing as the wealthy pumping up prices. It's their money and if they want to pay more it's their business.
What will reduce rents is moving to a cheaper and smaller place.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

bgamall4 says

Strategist says

A big house like that, in a wonderful area like that, with a rate that low.

I wish I had that problem.

Lol, isn't that the truth. And perhaps adjustables are for these people, however, if time comes to sell and he is under water, then what?

In that case he stops making payments, and you get to pay the bill.
That's even a better problem I wish I had.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 9, 1:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Mark D says

whatever happened to that perma-bear theory that rents only go up with income (chart #1)?

wait until the dollar bubble bursts (within 10 years) then watch the rents skyrocket when my mortgage remains the same.

That perma bear theory is crap. Rents are determined by demand and supply, and nothing else. No landlord in San Francisco cares if the McDonald burger flippers can afford rent or not.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 8:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Finally something sensible from politicians.
Let's tax gasoline too.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 8:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Meccos says

Strategist says

There is a severe shortage of homes, especially since very little was built in the last 6 years. People from all over the world are desperate to buy American real estate. Interest rates are still too damn low.

We are in a boom unlike anything you have ever seen.

You are leveraging yourself like crazy and buying anything you can then right??? hahah

I did buy Spring 2012.
My regrets.....not having leveraged. I'll make up with the home builder stocks as they are about to take off.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 8:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

turtledove says

thomaswong.1986 says

Throw out every Liberal govt worker out of the city.. and bring in some Business folks..

see what happens...

There are a lot of guys from Enron, Lehman, Bear Stearns, Arthur Andersen who might be looking for jobs.

In Detroit?
Not much to steal there you know.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 8:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

New Renter says

Strategist says

So what's the solution?

More section 8 probably.

Oh God, is there any solution that does not cost anyone money?

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 8:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Dan8267 says

Finally, this problem is not going to get any better on its own. Millions of seniors are expected to need rental housing in the coming decade.

I.e., millions of seniors downsizing in the next decade, driving house prices down where they will continue to spiral until the last boomer dies.

How can that be possible with a rising population?
1. Population is rising.
2. Dumps like Detroit are being abandoned.
3. Old homes have to be replaced.
People have to live somewhere, and they all want to live in the sunbelt.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 8:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

CaptainShuddup says

Finally a Liberal proud of Bush's accomplishments.

His biggest accomplishment was creating the "Great Recession"

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Falling house prices will mean less construction of new homes, which means a shortage of homes, which means higher rents.

Houses were being built when they were much cheaper than today.

They were just slightly smaller and more basic.

Today builders all want to build "luxury" houses but they will have to adapt to reality and build houses people can afford.

As long as the demand is there, I'm not sure why some private company would not offer a solution.

I here there is a huge demand for the million dollar homes. Toll Brothers, a luxury home builder now averages $675,000 per home.
Want to get rich? Buy the home builders, their stock prices are about to go through the roof.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

I.e., millions of seniors downsizing in the next decade, driving house prices down where they will continue to spiral until the last boomer dies.

How can that be possible with a rising population?

1. Population is rising.

2. Dumps like Detroit are being abandoned.

3. Old homes have to be replaced.

People have to live somewhere, and they all want to live in the sunbelt.

If the next generation cannot afford the boomers houses, prices will go down - especially larger more expensive houses.

It is possible to build more cheaper units, apartments etc...

That will be a decision for the home builders to make when the time comes. Their only goal is to maximize profits regardless of what they sell.
I personally believe our standard of living will keep getting better over the decades, and the average consumer will have a much higher purchasing power, benefiting real estate the most.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

CaptainShuddup says

They only accomplishments that has worked out for Obama, that Obama has had a smashing success with, was continuing the ground work Bush started with the Patriot Act. The NSA will be this administration's Eliot Ness's FBI(The Untouchables).

But instead of being noted for fighting crime, he will be noted for destroying democracy. The Obamacare folly will just be icing on the scary nighttime story cake, you tell kids to make them go to bed or the IRS and Insurance adjuster will get them and make them suffer and end of life death pannel.

I voted for McCain as I expected Obama to really screw things up. I was dead wrong. Obama pulled us out of a potential depression, did get many of those terrorists and Obamacare, inspite of a bad start will evolve into something good.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

He he he.
Those cave men paid no mortgage and yet no one foreclosed on them.
I think I'll take the hut, it looks like its on a beautiful island somewhere.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

Bubbabear says

bubble 2.0 can only end badly

Central banks will not let this end in deflation.

It could end in inflation.

Real estate is the best way to hedge against inflation.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Real estate is the best way to hedge against inflation.

It's a joke, right?

We all know what leverage means.

When inflation is 10% and rates 15%, what leverage will there be?

No joke, just a fact.
Rates are 4% now. Lock em in and pray for inflation. If your prayers are answered it will feel like getting a home for free.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Fourth-quarter earnings for 2013 were $94.9 million, or $0.54 per share diluted, compared to $411.4 million, or $2.35 per share, in fiscal year 2012.

This is when you buy.....when temporary bad news hits the stock.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 9:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

New Renter says

Strategist says

He he he.

Those cave men paid no mortgage and yet no one foreclosed on them.

I think I'll take the hut, it looks like its on a beautiful island somewhere.

Well caves CAN be a great way to live. The main problem is light and ventilation. I'm thinking ventilation shafts can double as light tunnels. Put in a few solar panels and or windmills for electrical power with a large water tower for energy storage and you've got yourself a nice little setup.

In the good old days (18th century England) being a hermit was a pretty good gig. Unfortunately like all good jobs demand has dried up.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/aug/20/arts.artsnews

Nah! I don't like fixer uppers.
How about flipping it?

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 10:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

thomaswong.1986 says

Strategist says

Real estate is the best way to hedge against inflation.

not very liquid, not easy to offload, duration of holding period, and carries high costs... maintenance, tax, and other payments.

you may be better off buying securities ...that hedge against inflation.

Securities don't do well in a high inflation environment. Trust me on this. If you expect inflation, real estate is the only way to go.
Real Estate as it stands now is so undervalued, it can only go up.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 10, 10:10am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

What would happen if we started a movement to pledge to "not buy" real estate until new home sales (or listings) outpace existing homes.

You have a better chance of winning the lotto.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 11, 1:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote        

I wish it was true. I had made offers back in 2009 for Meridian condos, 1 block east of Ceasers Palace on Flamingo. 2 bedroom condos were $60,000 to 70,000, almost 90% off their peak prices. I did not buy as the banks ( all of them were foreclosures) refused to negotiate. A few months ago they were going for around $150,000. After getting all excited after reading this article, I went to Redfin to check what was available. I could not even find one condo for sale at this large complex.
That zero hedge web site has zero truth and zero credibility. It's for suckers.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 12, 11:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

What a bull. I could hope for nothing more.
Real Estate is in full recovery mode. With inventories falling at a rapid pace prices of homes can only go up. How high they jump will probably be determined by loan availability.
Home builder stocks in my opinion will outperform home price increases.

Strategist   ignore (1)   2013 Dec 12, 11:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

The Chinese government uses prison labor to manufacture goods, and they are supposed to be communist. You cannot hold Chinese companies to American standards because then you end up comparing apples to oranges. I'm sure Foxconn pays a lot better than local Chinese companies.

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