Please log in to view images

Therafin's comments

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 28, 3:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This is a great litmus test for PATRICK

Should this SJW who also rails against "clueless white males" who "think nothing of raping drunk girls at frat parties" be fired for speaking her mind ---- OR ----- should the patnet rule of "No one should be fired or censured in the workplace for any speech that would be legally allowed in public." apply?

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jun 30, 1:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

joshuatrio says

People do not get to decide which gender they are born with.

Joshiatrio - if a person is born with both a penis and a vagina, and has not altered either one, what binary are they?

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 4, 11:24am     ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

rando says

@tovarichpeter do you actually read the articles you post and consider what truth they might have, or just go with anything that sounds anti-Trump?

Patrick - You had no problem with Tovbots anti homeownership headlines (i.e. fake headline saying prices are "crashing" when the article said prices were rising). Why do you only now fault him when he makes up headlines about Trump?

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 7, 8:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Wow - pretty fascinating what turns up when you hit "random post" on patnet.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 10, 2:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rando says

Hmmm, maybe I should put more focus on housing again.

Perhaps, but if you do, maybe you should explain why you will do better this time. I say that because by and large, anyone who was here and didn't buy (say 2009 and beyond) was royally screwed. Your price to rent metrics are nice, but for the vast majority of your users who simply want to buy a house they know they can afford and be somewhat near the bottom, renting for life is not really an option.

In other words, if you do housing bubble 2.0 what did you learn from your the last 15 years to ensure this generation is not as screwed as the last?

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 10, 7:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Sigh - so no changes? Have you forgotten the people like meetykats who cursed this site? Or what about the people in your neighborhood who followed your advice only to have the old owner sell and the new owner jacked the rent up to 6K?

Again, why not incorporate what you have learned? For example make the new slogan "why in some neighborhoods it NEVER makes sense to buy" and explain why the rent historically never reaches parity with the purchase price? Also, explain (for those neighborhoods) that IF you must buy, the best signs of a bottom are ___ and ___ and ____?

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 11, 2:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kapone says

What I was talking about is essentially crowd-sourced price discovery. But, you gotta give the crowd some incentive to participate in the process.

Don't we already have that now? I'll give you two examples.

1. My (delusional) parents are trying to FSBO their house for One Million . It has gotten 0 bids/inquiries for that price over 3 years. They once de-listed it, then mistakenly relisted it for 100K. They got 47 bids/inquiries in the first day - some willing to pay 300K - before they realized their mistake and added the extra zero to make it a million. Now, they did not let the price discovery complete, but we instantly knew it was worth somewhere between 300K and under 1MM (my best guess is 650k).

2. My wife's car blew up. I didn't give a shit about it so I did no research and just listed it on craigslist for $1,500 as I would have GLADLY have someone take it off my hands for that. Turns out, I massively underpriced it and I got hundreds of calls in an hour offering me up to 3-4K. Once I realized my mistake I told everyone to meet me in the parking lot at 6PM and I ran an all cash auction. 3 guys showed up and the winning bid of $2,850 cash took it away.

2 months later, as a science experience I decided to re-list the car I sold at 5K to see what happens. I got 3-4 inquires in a week before the ad expired and one half hearted lowball of " would you take $2,500 for it". Thus in a reasonable amount of time, buyers (who are always the ones who set the price) did the discovery work. I could have maybe gotten one of the guys who offered me 4K on the phone to come through - even though none of them decided to show up? Maybe, Maybe not. Either way, all I wanted was something north of $1,500 so I was tickled to get $2850. Likewise, the guy (who was by definition the "greatest fool" when he paid $2850) was sooo psyched to get a car to rebuild with his son. This is the magic of the market - this is price discovery!

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 11, 4:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rando says

This is really interesting. You can judge the viability of a price point by the number of inquiries at that point.

Somewhat. I know you don't like it, but imagine that every house was listed for $1. Everyone would intrinsically (to themselves) or explicitly (to the buyers) tell them what they would pay. First 1K, then 10K, then 20K, and so on til you reach price discovery of the market clearing price (say $240K). The closer you get to that 240K market clearing price, the cheapskates drop out, leaving only the greatest fool who paid the 240K.

Say he then sold it 20 years later, again listing it for $1. Again, the market clearing process would repeat as prospective buyers compete with one another one by one until a new market clearing price (say $300K) is "discovered" and this guy then becomes the "greatest fool".

If you truly think about it, this is what we all do for boats, cars, or any similar consumable. We intrinsically fear "bidding wars" but that is what we are all intrinsically doing whenever we shop for something. Assuming it is adequately marketed and viewed by a decent sample size of prospective buyers, everything will eventually sell for its market clearing price.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 11, 6:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kapone says

For e.g. A Ford Taurus is a Ford Taurus is a Ford Taurus. It's easily quantifiable. A 4BR/3FB/1HB house is a... well...now you got location, lot size, age of house, improvements, taste of buyer, school districts, state/county income taxes where the house is located, hidden maintenance items etc etc. List goes on.

Granted, but that still doenst eliminate the auction aspect of it at any given time. For the house, if the seller has some flexibility in time, they can leave it on the market for 90 days, then follow up with the top 5 bids in the last 15 days. Granted in some cases the seller needs immediate cash (imagine he only allows discovery to take place for 5 days - it sucks for him that a buyer would be willing to pay 2X 30 days later - but he knew he may be leaving money on the table by taking offers quickly). All auctions have "rules" per se, but in some cases the rules exist only in the parties heads and dictate why they do what they do.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 11, 7:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rando says

That's kind of like what we have now in California, with deliberate underpricing. The realtor lies and advertises a price below the minimum that the seller would actually accept, to generate interest and so that the buyer is at a greater disadvantage because he doesn't even know how much the seller is expecting.

Deliberate or not, what does it matter? I truly would have been willing to take $1,500 for the car (heck, if pushed I would take $900). But whether I deliberately underpriced it or innocently under priced it, remember BUYERS set the price. In 10 minutes, I had multiple offers above $1,500 - they (the buyers) were competing with each other for my attention. Again, they set the price. rando says

And then during bidding, instead of actually knowing about other bids and getting more information, the buyer gets unverifiable bid reports from realtors (both his own and the seller's) which are indistinguishable from outright lies intended to deceive the buyer into overpaying.

As someone who will both buy and sell multiple times in one's life, I say to this - so what? As a buyer, I place a bid I would be "OK" with the seller saying yes to. If its 300K that is because I am saying (in sum) I would rather have that thing than the $300K. Would I prefer to pay 200K? Sure. However, I could have offered 200K, yet I the buyer chose not to.

Moreover, what if I as a buyer did bid 200K, the seller said "I Agree" and I feel tickled pink - until I discover that not a single other buyer offered more than $150K and I could have just as easily have purchased for $151K - had I just offered that first. Either way, the maxim still holds, the buyer sets the price - and frankly as someone who will be both buyer and seller multiple times in life - sometimes the "rules" of the market will work for you. Sometimes, they wont - but such is life. I don't see what the problem is - the other maxim caveat emptor or buyer beware has survived for centuries for this reason.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 11, 7:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kapone says

Case in point - Detroit at present. You couldn't give away houses right now, even if you wanted to. I'm exaggerating, but you get the point. The question is "why". Why are houses priced the way they are right now, in Detroit? The answer is pretty complex, but suffice it to say, a buyer just doesn't see the value there "right now".

Precisely. 50 years ago, they would be worth more because they had more usefulness as there was a better balance between population and jobs. Likewise, say I could legally build 20 houses on the moon right now. Other than the novelty, they have no real value "right now" and likely wont for a while. Still, I think most people will agree they will have some value sometime within the next 2,000 years.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 11, 8:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rando says

But there is no price discovery by buyers in the current market except to go through the whole process of bidding and see if it's accepted or not. Huge disadvantage on probably the largest purchase of your life. So yes, at present buyers are basically fucked and simply have to guess how much they are being lied to and make some bid.

How are they fucked by offering a price they are willing to pay? If they offer 150K they are saying, "I would rather have that house than I would have this 150K". If its that much a concern, the buyer could say "I bid 50K" only to see what the seller says. If the seller says go fuck yourself, then move on. If the seller doesn't say that, it tells you that the market is so weak and this SELLER is so fucked he is willing to entertain your weak ass offer of 50K. Buyers are in the most powerful position. They can offer what they want and not a penny more. That said, if they want to fuck themselves by offering 500K on a place that was listed at 300K - why does it matter? If they by definition are saying "I would rather have that place than this 500K" whats the harm in letting the market clear?

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 12, 7:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

kapone says

Same for buyers, it lets them indicate their price points.

Got it. Sounds like Patrick's "say what you would pay" service he tried for a while. It never took off because it was never fully formed, but its probably an idea worth exploring.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 17, 4:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yeah - while Patrick's story is great (for him) - but I encourage you to browse around this site for all the now silent people like Meetycats, Jason M. Malkovich, etc. who got royally screwed by renting. The true "housing trap" you get wedded to an area in terms of schools, friends, family, jobs, etc. Suddenly, your spouse, kids, love everything about their life exactly the way it is...

Then .....SNAP goes the trap. Either the kindly old landlord dies, sells, or whatever, and then the new guy realizes how under market your rental is, and raises it by thousands of dollars. I cant link to it but google "Million Dollar Shack" which is about the daily reaming that renters get in Silicon Valley. My favorite part is the Mountain View renter of 10 years who got a notice from her landlord saying her rent was going from "just over $2,000 per month to $8,900 per month!". Of course she couldn't afford it so like so many others, she got priced out and had to move away.

Not sure what to tell you other than to understand both sides of the argument here. Call it the "survivor bias" but the people who got reamed by long term renting are too ashamed to come here and tell you about it. For every single vote you get in favor of long term renting, don't forget about the multiple votes against it from the 10,000 plus former posters who were long silenced by prices.

  Therafin   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 18, 7:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

bob2356 says

If the rent to house price ratio is favorable to renting ( you can rent for less than you can mortage) then rent and put the difference in the bank (the key point to the exercise), If it's favorable to buying then buy. This isn't rocket science. Houses are just big wooden boxes.

Bad formula. If you don't account for price gains, you will get wrong results.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Not just "price gains' but rent increases too. it cant just be a single snapshot in time. It must be weighed against the expected length of ownership/tenancy. Otherwise you get this (2008 renter with expected 25 year stay):

2008 rent = 2000
2008 buy = 2300
Formula choice = rent

2013 rent = 2400
2013 buy = 2600
Formula choice = rent

2017 rent = 2800
2017 buy =2850
Formula choice = rent

2020 rent= 3100
2020 buy =3000
Formula choice = buy

Here the dipshit who decided not to buy at $2,300 a month is somehow the "winner" when he purchases 12 later and pays $3,000? Nope. The "correct" answer is travel back in time and kick the shit out of your 2008 self for not buying at the bottom. Absent that, assuming you can afford it, the longterm buyer should just buy at the lowest price you can and hope for the best. It sucks but it beats renting for life or traveling back in time to kick your own ass.

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions