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  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 2, 6:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

CBOEtrader says
It is fully within the range of possible errors, and therefore you CAN NOT SUGGEST THAT THE CONCLUSION IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.


You're not taking in to account N, the number of measurements. The larger N is, the smaller the possible range of possible error (for the overall average). This is regardless of the precision of the measurements.

It's okay, statistics is a difficult subject for a lot of people. anon_08dee did a superb job of explaining it above.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 2, 7:33pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (3)     quote      

Sniper says
I see how that works. If Obama makes a statement or campaign promise, but it doesn't happen, then it was a "commendable objective".

If Trump makes a statement or campaign promise, but it doesn't happen, then it's a flat out lie.


No Trump saying he's going to build the wall is not an example of the type of falsehood or misleading statement Trump makes 5 times a day as chronicled by WP.

Quigley says
I think WaPo will continue to publish lies and misleading slander no matter what we think of it...


You guys don't even want to stop for a minute and realize Trumps constant lies.

Strategist says
Presidents will always say something that is incorrect. It is expected.


Again, you don't get it. You equate a few campaign promises with multiple faslehoods and misleading statements PER DAY !!
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 2, 7:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (4)     quote      

Did the story originate in the U.S or in Russia.

Or perhaps the Swiss banks are super psyched aboutthe tax cuts and all the new tax avoidance gimicks that are going to result from recent legislation.

They're thinking, CA-CHING !!!
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 2, 7:47pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (3)     quote      

And 90% of the 89 aren't even lies, they're just sound bites from various right wing media stories about how terrible Obama was.

Benghazi !!

Don't touch my medicare !! (ironic considering therecent tax cuts)

etc...
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 2, 8:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (3)     quote      

Strategist says
WaPo went and counted the same comment multiple times to get to their 2000 number. Talk about dishonesty and click bait:


I know. They make that extremely clear. It's how often he lies, not the number of distinct lies. If they're going to
say he tells 5 falsehoods or misleading statements per day, of course many are repeats.

What kind of President repeats falsehoods multiple times after the media and his own people have corrected him on it multiple times. He might wish it were true. Or he might think it sounds good to a certain segment of his supporters. But if he knows it's outright false, what's up with that ?

It's almost like we have CIC as our President.

Jeez, even Trump would have had a hard time coming up with 2000 distinct different lies in a year. But I give you guys credit for thinking maybe that's what he did. It means you know your guy !
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 3, 12:13pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (3)     quote      

CBOEtrader says
You are complete missing the point but I expect that of a troll like yourself.


My intent is not to troll, although I will admit some unnecessary condescension - which I heard you doing to others higher up in the thread.

I might be wrong that you're making a silly mistake in your thinking, but if so, can you explain it please ? Exactly what does the .8 degree variation in measurement mean. What does the range of accuracy mean ? Can you explain it to me broken down all the way so I can please understand what I'm missing.

What it seems like, is that you're making an argument like this. "It's ridiculous to say that the average family has 2.4 children, because every family has an integer number of children and therefore the we can not state an average that has an accuracy of less than plus or minus 1." Of course it's true that nobody has 2.4 children, but that does not mean that it's not an extremely accurate average.

Not a perfect analogy, but the point is, that we didn't need people having 2.39 and 2.41 children in order to get a very accurate average of 2.4. In fact the closet readings we got were 2 and 3, and some of our readings were farther way, like 0 and 7, and yet the 2.4, to the nearest tenth is very accurate.

If every family somehow had 2.4 children each, there would be the same number of children out there !

As for significance testing, whether an increase is significant at say a 5 percent level, is all about what the probability is that a sample of size N would have a mean that is that much above the previous years mean. The larger N is, the narrower the distribution of mean values will be, that is the the distribution of all theoretical sample means for samples of size N has a narrower distribution when N is large.

Btw, is it not safe to assume that for measurements of temperature, say if you measured temperatures thousands of times, that the amount you are off from the true measure each time would form a normal distribution, with a mean of zero ?
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 4, 6:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Perhaps today's Sessions move on Marjuana is meant to distract from this ? Book apparently came out today.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 8:12pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Turn on Fox. It will make you feel better.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 8:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Quigley says
Also, according to the global warming crowd, solar minimums either don’t exist (nevermind that NASA data) or are just “weather”... somehow.


No, nobody says they don't exist or that they can't effect tempertures (perhaps slighly).

But objective people that have explored the subject and spent at least 5 minutes reading about it know that the 11 year cycles are much much much more significant than more subtle long term changes. And the last solar minimum in 2008 or didn't put much of a dent in the global average temp trends.



Compare that to this, and then apply a little common sense.

  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 8:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
Baby Boomer death rates remained depressed or even stagnated, while they sat back, played bingo, and watched the younger generation implode on itself.


A little hyperbolic don't you think ?

108 to 129 is a big increase (in 2 years), but it is per 100,000. Still that's very roughly 1 in 1000.

I'm not disputing it's a huge problem. Just trying to have some perspective.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 9:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

Tenpoundbass says
NPR and NYT are almost panicking backpedaling away from it. For the first time in over 20 years those organizations are talking about journalism integrity.
They are both saying Wolfe has crossed the line in every way. But they admit they love reveling in the gossip, but they don't think it's true. They want to believe most of the quotes are true, but not the recounts of the crazy shit Trump is reported to have said or done.


You got some parts of this right. IT's an entertaining read, even for many hardcore TrumpCucks, who never really denied Trump's lack of fitness or competence for the job. That's seen by many angry Trumpcucks as a wonderful bonus.

I get it that you're trying super hard to find a way to frame this.

And yes, there are some questions about Wolffs methods and journalistic integrity. But then for the last two years you've been a "the end justifies the means" kind of a guy. After all that's what Trumpism is all about no ?
Wolff was going for a big profit, while also probably feeling that he might save America from itself.

The main parts of your take away that make no sense, are that, one, this is going to be a force in helping Trump clean up the swamp. Hell, we've never had a swamp that holds a candle to the Trump created swamp.

That and the idea, that NYT and NPR don't believe that most of it is true. Quotes and the stuff Trump does.

Although I have wondered whether Trump could be getting a big payday from McDonalds. So much talk about him eating McDonalds, and look at who the typical TrumpCuck is. Sad really, that McDonalds business is going to be way up, but I don't know about American health.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 9:19pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (4)     quote      

I like the way it's bringing the concept of credibility in to light.

What, you say ? Credibility is a thing ? Credibility matters ?
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 9:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
Wait, so if we see a CO2 graph with the same slope, it's going "parabolic"


Again, I was talking perspective. If some country had OD deaths go from 1 to 4 per 100,000, that would be a 300% increase, and yet they would be in far better shape than we are. And again:

marcus says
I'm not disputing it's a huge problem. Just trying to have some perspective.


Everything doesn't have to be an argument. When I read the first few paragraphs I thought it was quite alarming. When I saw the per 100,000, I thought it was less alarming, but still in terms of change yes, very alarming indeed and a big problem.

Maybe the recent tax legislation will help there to be a more hopeful outlook for young adults. I believe economic prospects and a lack of hope is a key factor at the root of this problem, although I'm sure it's not that simple.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 10:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

anon_713cd says
Seriously, you're carrying the weight of worry about morbidly obese junkfood eating americans on your shoulders?


No, that doesn't mean I can't observe how sad it is that some TrumpCucks who previously had the good sense to minimize their consumption of McDonalds may now change their minds and emulate their idol.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 10:13pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Sniper says
1 degree C rise in 137 years will "wet bulb" us to death...


Also one degree in 40 years, with an increasing slope, and a lot of uncertainty about what happens as the oceans continue to warm and methane under antarctic ice is released and so on. IT's about uncertainty and risk regarding where this goes, and the belief that being circumspect about this topic obviously means all earth inhabitants should make getting off fossil fuels sooner rather than later a priority.

Yes, humanity in the long term thriving without avoidable disruption is more important than short term corporate interests of a few corporations.

Yes. Common sense.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 5, 10:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

So does this mean you like Wolff almost as much as you like Trump ?

Don't you get the point of this thread ? You can't have it both ways.

You either admire and respect people that have little credibility or you don't. Or perhaps it's not a factor for you (allowing you to respect Trump) ?

If that's the case then you should just enjoy "Fire and Fury" for it's entertainment value, with the knowledge that it's somewhere between 60% and 99% true.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 6, 9:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Tenpoundbass says
about Obama and Hillary we don't have to make shit up.


I've spent years watching you make shit up. Just like Trump did with the story about Obama wiretapping him. You're the kind of guy that went on for months about "you didn't build that" (one of your least nonsensical claims) and to this day either are incapable of understanding Obama meant or too dishonest to admit you knew what he meant.

Either way you're a lot like Trump.

As for my edited video it showed two key things I wanted to sow

1) Instead of giving any proof or source for his repeated accusation that Obama wiretapped him, he said "I have my opinion you have yours." In other words like you facts and truth are just whatever he says they are. Whatever works for him.

2) The fact that congressional committees concluded there is no evidence that Obama wiretapped Trump.

If by chance there was some FBI investigation into treasonous behavior of Trump's campaign - i.e telling Russia locations (states) to focus it's facebook stories such as pizzagate, this was the result of Trumps stupidity. And now even Bannon says so, and he's setting up Trump junior and Kushner to take the fall.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 6, 9:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Tenpoundbass says


Acutaually the book says this.


As the campaign came to an end, Trump himself was sanguine. His ultimate goal, after all, had never been to win. “I can be the most famous man in the world,” he had told his aide Sam Nunberg at the outset of the race. His longtime friend Roger Ailes, the former head of Fox News, liked to say that if you want a career in television, first run for president. Now Trump, encouraged by Ailes, was floating rumors about a Trump network. It was a great future. He would come out of this campaign, Trump assured Ailes, with a far more powerful brand and untold opportunities.

“This is bigger than I ever dreamed of,” he told Ailes a week before the election. “I don’t think about losing, because it isn’t losing. We’ve totally won.”


He wanted it to be close. Maybe he was even willing to try the President thing, because that's making him even more famous and gives him even more attention. But he saw it as a win/win and secretly would have been relieved if he lost, but with it close.

We all know he was talking a lot about it being rigged even before the vote.

More:


Most presidential candidates spend their entire careers, if not their lives from adolescence, preparing for the role. They rise up the ladder of elected offices, perfect a public face, and prepare themselves to win and to govern. The Trump calculation, quite a conscious one, was different. The candidate and his top lieutenants believed they could get all the benefits of almost becoming president without having to change their behavior or their worldview one whit. Almost everybody on the Trump team, in fact, came with the kind of messy conflicts bound to bite a president once he was in office. Michael Flynn, the retired general who served as Trump’s opening act at campaign rallies, had been told by his friends that it had not been a good idea to take $45,000 from the Russians for a speech. “Well, it would only be a problem if we won,” ­Flynn assured them.

Not only did Trump disregard the potential conflicts of his own business deals and real-estate holdings, he audaciously refused to release his tax returns. Why should he? Once he lost, Trump would be both insanely famous and a martyr to Crooked Hillary. His daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared would be international celebrities. Steve Bannon would become the de facto head of the tea-party movement. Kellyanne Conway would be a cable-news star. Melania Trump, who had been assured by her husband that he wouldn’t become president, could return to inconspicuously lunching. Losing would work out for everybody. Losing was winning.

Shortly after 8 p.m. on Election Night, when the unexpected trend — Trump might actually win — seemed confirmed, Don Jr. told a friend that his father, or DJT, as he calls him, looked as if he had seen a ghost. Melania was in tears — and not of joy.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 6, 9:55am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

anotheraccount says
It was really good and showed that Bannon was only nationalist in Trump's admin. Basically the only MAGA guy. Everyone that's left is swamp.


You would think TPB knows this, having been the biggest Bannon fanboy I've encountered.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 6, 10:09am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

Tenpoundbass says

Liberal integrity..."Who cares if the book is a salacious lie, it's too good to factcheck"


You're accusing liberals of virtually the only behavior I've ever seen from you.

It's a book, based largely on interviews that the author stands behind. Of course we like it, because it might expedite getting a very very dangerous and unfit guy out of the Presidency.

Yes, everyone knows that it might only be mostly true.

Look I'm not thrilled about having Pence as President, he will probably lead to only a little less of a swamp than the one Trump created. And there's zero chance (rather than some small chance with Trump) of Pence moving us toward medicare for all.

But with Pence a lot of serious risks are reduced while we gain back at least some dignity in the international community. Possibly it would also turn around the scary trend of increased domestic terrorism from white nationalists although that would probably spike up first if Trump was to step down.

http://time.com/3934980/right-wing-extremists-white-terrorism-islamist-jihadi-dangerous/
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 6, 10:14am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Tenpoundbass says
That this Wolff guy was in a Trump White house during a time when his staff was leaking like a sieve


WE now know why that is.

It turns out that not only does Trump not read, he also doesn't listen. Unless it's to a billionaire friend on the phone or the media.

Leaks were intentionally done to get Trump to learn things hearing them on TV, that couldn't otherwise be communicated to him,
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 7, 5:16pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (4)     quote      

Over 40% did't vote, which says something about how cynical people are about the system.

Trump barely beat Hillary, which probably would not have happened of not for COmey, and well placed Russian propaganda (pizzagate etc) on facebook.

Yes, Trump won over enough idiots, racists, and yes by default got a lot of republicans including even some of the smart republicans. to get about 28% (less than half of the 58% that voted) of the population to vote for him.

I can see why you're so proud.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 8, 4:19pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

CBOEtrader says
Act like an adult or GTFO. @patrick how long are you gonna let this guy drag down your forum? This specific behavior is the problem. Iwog is your worst offender


CBOE's issue with IWOG is that he presents real arguments that inihilate his emotion based content free arguments.

CBOE would much rather argue with some center right or moderate (what he calls hard core left winger) that he can associate with Antifa and call a Nazi, until they just leave the site in disgust.

IWOG has always been one of the best at calling the most clueless alt right wingers (such as CBOE) out on their BS. Without Iwog this site is more of a right wing echo chamber and troll fest than it ever was before.

What you have to realize is that hey, maybe that's a profitable route for the site to go. Besides, being the right wing Trump supporter that Patrick obviously is, the truth that Iwog puts out there has to get a hard to listen to.

"Let's just be a right wing circle jerk instead."

I started making myself scarce quite a while ago. Not enough real discussion. And also it's just depressing (although I've been around a bit in recent weeks).

Everyone with half a brain knows that the recent tax cuts are going to cause the deficit to explode. Which will eventually lead to more cuts in "entitlements." We are now well in to the treacherous 4th decade of this "starve the beast" undoing of Johnson's great society. The republicans have won, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize we all lose.

I digress, but Iwog is one of the best people for detailing this and making the argument for how fucked up things are.

So of course the TrumpCucks don't want him here. How can you run a profitable right wing echo chamber with intelligent people like Iwog around ?
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 8, 4:33pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

Goran_K says
LBJ was a known racist who devastated the black community with dependency on entitlements.


That might have been an effect, but I don't believe it was his intent, and it was obviously necessary. The bad thing is the connection politically to the left.

It turns out prison is more way more expensive than public aid (for the govt) but if you play it right the owner class can get in on it (hey - more back door welfare for the 1%) and also bonus, they're not reproducing when they're in prison.

You tell me, which side are the worse racists ?
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 8, 4:39pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

Btw @CBOE I was perhaps a little over the top above. I do attempt to reason with you and you had little to do with my leaving for awhile (not that you would care). Curious2 and a couple other assholes were more my reason, combined with the alt right wingers getting overly full of themselves and dominating the site more.

The alt right BS gets tiring. In my book T-lips has always been a tool, but ever since he became a paid troll for the alt right he's become so much worse than just tiresome.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 11, 10:55am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      





Meanwhile, keep a lookout for stories about money laundering.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 11, 5:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

The criticism of sjw behavior on college campuses has been building for years, not because of, bt rather in spite of any association it may have with alt right.

Check this out. https://heterodoxacademy.org/ This came about very independent of Trump.

See Jonathon Haidt and many others building consensus and online discussion. If anything this is hampered by the alt right, becasue SJWs can claim that they are fighting the alt right on,, which sounds legit on its face.

No, no,no, consider Iwog, myself, c internet personalities like Jordan Peterson, and countless others that understand the problem with identity politics. Part of it is just wrong. But even when identity politics makes sense, it's hard in this climate to go forward without triggering self righteous alt righters.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 11, 5:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

rocketjoe79 says


If such a failure can have a net worth of $3.5 Billion, I'l like to be exactly that kind of failure.


He would have done better simply investing the 400 million he inherited in the stock market. We have no idea what he's actually worth.
  marcus   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 11, 5:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Is it a contrarian sell signal ?