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2012 YY Inventory, Median Price, and Age of Inventory on the Market

By BayArea (45/45 = 100% civil)   2012 Apr 12, 7:53am   ↑ like   ↓ dislike   9,796 views   36 comments   watch (0)   share   quote  

Hi folks, just came across this link showing a comparison between 2012 & 2011 inventory, median price, and # of days on market in three Northern California cities:

http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx?source=web

YY Inventory:
Oakland: -47%
San Francisco: -29%
San Jose: -34.4%

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

YY Median Age of Inventory:
Oakland: -42.9%
San Francisco: -26%
San Jose: -27.3

What's your theory for what is pushing supply down this significantly? Let's focus on that since the Median List Price and the Median Age of Inventory are just outputs of the supply drop.

BayArea

#housing

1   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 12, 12:08pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Isn't this site backed,owned,operated by NAR?

2   tdeloco   2012 Apr 12, 1:27pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

3   Hysteresis   2012 Apr 12, 2:58pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

list price isn't as useful as sale price.

4   ThreeBays   2012 Apr 12, 3:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

tdeloco says

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Bingo.

Inventories are down to about half YoY.
Sales are down YoY too.

In other words supply is pushed down by lack of interest to sell, not by an increase in sales.

5   thomas.wong1986   2012 Apr 12, 4:37pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

6   Hysteresis   2012 Apr 12, 5:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

thomas.wong1986 says

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

dqnews reports sale price.

this is list price.

big difference.

7   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   2012 Apr 12, 5:05pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

I believe everything I am told by the NAR

8   xenogear3   2012 Apr 12, 6:49pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

50% visitors here are "unemployed" realtors.

Just like many people point out, the sale is down too.
We really don't know if the next leg will up or down.
Whatever it is, it will be big.

9   lostand confused (21/21 = 100% civil)   2012 Apr 12, 7:42pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

I think the sellers are hoping that the market has turned. Judging by Japan, we may have along time to go-unless jobs come back. Either of our crazy parties are not itnerested in tarriffs or bringing jobs back-just blaming the other party. So we are stuck and our standard of living will probably go down to match the Chinese.

10   tatupu70   2012 Apr 12, 10:12pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

ThreeBays says

Sales are down YoY too.

Source?

According to Thomas' link, they are up:

"A total of 7,494 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in December. That was up 18.6 percent from 6,317 in November, and up 4.4 percent from 7,178 in December 2010. The year-over-year increase was the sixth in a row, according to San Diego-based DataQuick."

11   FortWayne (38/39 = 97% civil)   2012 Apr 13, 12:15am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Watch the real inventory early next year, it will be big.

12   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 13, 2:00am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

I believe everything I am told by the NAR

Yep,like 2006 was a good time to buy!

13   Goran_K (4/4 = 100% civil)   2012 Apr 13, 2:09am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

14   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 13, 2:25am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Goran_K says

It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

Seriously,those $8000 hand outs from uncle sam screwed them up! In my zipcode(in socal) there are quite a few that are popping up on redfin - bought around 2008/2009 and and are now listed lower then the bought price.

15   Goran_K (4/4 = 100% civil)   2012 Apr 13, 2:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Yeah, I'm surprised to see the amount of people "short selling" after 2 freaking years.

Look at this FHA'er right here in Irvine:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/22-Atherton-92620/home/4781303

Trying to get out with a $40,000 loss, no problem though, that was Uncle Sam money anyway.

Good grief.

16   edvard2   2012 Apr 13, 3:20am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

Winter is typically the slowest when it comes to home sales and thus inventory drops. Also- the weather for the past few months around here has been pretty crappy. That too effects the market.

17   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 13, 3:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

But,but 2009 was the bottom!!!

18   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   2012 Apr 13, 3:41am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

It's 10x in 5 years. You aren't in now, your kids will be living in abandoned cars and boxes.

19   BayArea (45/45 = 100% civil)   2012 Apr 13, 3:42am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

edvard2 says

I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

The numbers above compare the same season this year to the same season exactly 1 year ago.

20   BayArea (45/45 = 100% civil)   2012 Apr 13, 3:44am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

tdeloco says

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Sure, but let's take it a step further.

Why do they want to sell less today than they did 1 year ago?

And foreclosures filings are down 17% from one year ago

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/04/12/foreclosures-are-at-a-4-year-low-but-thats-not-necessarily-good-news/

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