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2012 YY Inventory, Median Price, and Age of Inventory on the Market

By BayArea   2012 Apr 12, 7:53am   10,803 views   36 comments   watch (0)   quote      

Hi folks, just came across this link showing a comparison between 2012 & 2011 inventory, median price, and # of days on market in three Northern California cities:

http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx?source=web

YY Inventory:
Oakland: -47%
San Francisco: -29%
San Jose: -34.4%

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

YY Median Age of Inventory:
Oakland: -42.9%
San Francisco: -26%
San Jose: -27.3

What's your theory for what is pushing supply down this significantly? Let's focus on that since the Median List Price and the Median Age of Inventory are just outputs of the supply drop.

BayArea

#housing

Comments 1-36 of 36     Last »

1   bubblesitter     2012 Apr 12, 12:08pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Isn't this site backed,owned,operated by NAR?

2   tdeloco     2012 Apr 12, 1:27pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

3   Hysteresis     2012 Apr 12, 2:58pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

list price isn't as useful as sale price.

4   ThreeBays   7/7 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 12, 3:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tdeloco says

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Bingo.

Inventories are down to about half YoY.
Sales are down YoY too.

In other words supply is pushed down by lack of interest to sell, not by an increase in sales.

5   thomas.wong1986     2012 Apr 12, 4:37pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

6   Hysteresis     2012 Apr 12, 5:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

thomas.wong1986 says

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

dqnews reports sale price.

this is list price.

big difference.

7   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch     2012 Apr 12, 5:05pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I believe everything I am told by the NAR

8   xenogear3     2012 Apr 12, 6:49pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

50% visitors here are "unemployed" realtors.

Just like many people point out, the sale is down too.
We really don't know if the next leg will up or down.
Whatever it is, it will be big.

9   lostand confused   216/216 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 12, 7:42pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I think the sellers are hoping that the market has turned. Judging by Japan, we may have along time to go-unless jobs come back. Either of our crazy parties are not itnerested in tarriffs or bringing jobs back-just blaming the other party. So we are stuck and our standard of living will probably go down to match the Chinese.

10   tatupu70     2012 Apr 12, 10:12pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

ThreeBays says

Sales are down YoY too.

Source?

According to Thomas' link, they are up:

"A total of 7,494 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in December. That was up 18.6 percent from 6,317 in November, and up 4.4 percent from 7,178 in December 2010. The year-over-year increase was the sixth in a row, according to San Diego-based DataQuick."

11   FortWayne   403/407 = 99% civil   2012 Apr 13, 12:15am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Watch the real inventory early next year, it will be big.

12   bubblesitter     2012 Apr 13, 2:00am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

I believe everything I am told by the NAR

Yep,like 2006 was a good time to buy!

13   Goran_K   136/136 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 2:09am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

14   bubblesitter     2012 Apr 13, 2:25am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

Seriously,those $8000 hand outs from uncle sam screwed them up! In my zipcode(in socal) there are quite a few that are popping up on redfin - bought around 2008/2009 and and are now listed lower then the bought price.

15   Goran_K   136/136 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 2:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Yeah, I'm surprised to see the amount of people "short selling" after 2 freaking years.

Look at this FHA'er right here in Irvine:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/22-Atherton-92620/home/4781303

Trying to get out with a $40,000 loss, no problem though, that was Uncle Sam money anyway.

Good grief.

16   edvard2     2012 Apr 13, 3:20am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

Winter is typically the slowest when it comes to home sales and thus inventory drops. Also- the weather for the past few months around here has been pretty crappy. That too effects the market.

17   bubblesitter     2012 Apr 13, 3:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

But,but 2009 was the bottom!!!

18   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch     2012 Apr 13, 3:41am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

It's 10x in 5 years. You aren't in now, your kids will be living in abandoned cars and boxes.

19   BayArea   311/311 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 3:42am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

edvard2 says

I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

The numbers above compare the same season this year to the same season exactly 1 year ago.

20   BayArea   311/311 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 3:44am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tdeloco says

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Sure, but let's take it a step further.

Why do they want to sell less today than they did 1 year ago?

And foreclosures filings are down 17% from one year ago

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/04/12/foreclosures-are-at-a-4-year-low-but-thats-not-necessarily-good-news/

21   bmwman91     2012 Apr 13, 3:46am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

It's 10x in 5 years. You aren't in now, your kids will be living in abandoned cars and boxes.

I'm not sure about there being unfilled boxes to live in. Most of them will be filled with hacked-up realtor parts, and we all know that exposure to realtor blood will likely infect you with their disease.

22   BayArea   311/311 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 3:56am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Hysteresis says

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:

Oakland: +10.4%

San Francisco: +1.1%

San Jose: +7.9%

list price isn't as useful as sale price.

Agreed, I wish I had sale price available to make this more meaningful.

23   BayArea   311/311 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 4:08am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

thomas.wong1986 says

BayArea says
YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

Thank you for pointing that out. So in conclusion about the Bay Area, comparing now to one year ago:

- Supply is down significantly
- List prices are up by a small amount
- Sell prices are down by a small amount
- Homes are not sitting as long as they were

Hmmmm...

24   edvard2     2012 Apr 13, 4:25am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

The numbers above compare the same season this year to the same season exactly 1 year ago.

But that doesn;t mean every year behaves exactly the same. The same is true for anything else that you sell- like cars, TV sets, and so on. Something as simple as the weather can in fact have a huge effect on overall market trends. Ironically, what I had repeated above came from a Realtor I talked to earlier in the week.

25   BayArea   311/311 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 4:32am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

edvard2 says

Something as simple as the weather can in fact have a huge effect on overall market trends.

Weather can contribute to small fluctuations in the market, yes. I'm comparing a cold winter this year to a cold winter last year ;-)

edvard2 says

Ironically, what I had repeated above came from a Realtor I talked to earlier in the week.

Scratch that, I don't believe what you just said.

26   edvard2     2012 Apr 13, 4:53am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

Scratch that, I don't believe what you just said.

Why not? Wouldn't you think a realtor would have it in their best intrest to try and get me to buy? I talked to a realtor earlier this week and her advice was to ( believe it or not) wait because the sell season hasn't really started.

Either way, I am not exactly concerned about supply. I've been looking and there are a LOT of houses for sale, and MANY are well below the 500k threshold we have set for ourselves.

27   dublin hillz   14/14 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 13, 5:38am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Why would anyone sell right now with rents being so high? Might as well kick back and relax.

28   bubblesitter     2012 Apr 13, 6:33am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dublin hillz says

Why would anyone sell right now with rents being so high?

Why would anyone buy with such insanely high prices?

dublin hillz says

Might as well kick back and relax.

Yep, that's the best one can do while the equity sinks cuz there is no other option(I mean,to sell)

29   gregpfielding     2012 Apr 13, 9:02am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

What's your theory for what is pushing supply down this significantly? Let's focus on that since the Median List Price and the Median Age of Inventory are just outputs of the supply drop.

All the would-be short sales and REOs are tied up in modification programs and/or waiting to see if there will be a principal reduction program announced soon.

30   bmwman91     2012 Apr 13, 9:37am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

gregpfielding says

All the would-be short sales and REOs are tied up in modification programs and/or waiting to see if there will be a principal reduction program announced soon.

Yup. I don't know why any would-be buyers are getting their hopes up. It's an election year, and we are going to see the full spectrum of shenanigans to try to buy votes from the over-extended masses.

31   REpro     2012 Apr 13, 11:16am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

This is how listing vs. sales price is look like.
House: $/Sq. Ft. in 95020 (redfin)

32   RentingForHalfTheCost     2012 Apr 13, 6:11pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

REpro says

This is how listing vs. sales price is look like.

House: $/Sq. Ft. in 95020 (redfin)

It is the old strategy of "List high, sell low" and then brag about multiple bids.

33   bubblesitter     2012 Apr 14, 5:18am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

List price graph is meaningless cuz sometimes it is ridiculously high and sometimes it is ridiculously low to attract multiple bids. Actual sold price graph by tier level is the only thing that matters.

34   BayArea   311/311 = 100% civil   2012 Apr 21, 11:21am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Here is a good indication that although list prices are up from 2011, selling prices are largely unchanged.

What's interesting is that sales are up in the Bay Area by 9% compared to March '11

35   thomas.wong1986     2012 Apr 21, 1:35pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

The media often twists the facts published by Dqnews.com
As such the trend over the past months have been on a decline.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120418.aspx

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120315.aspx

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx

http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/2011_archive.aspx

•January 20, 2011 - Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
•February 17, 2011 - Slow 2011 Start for Bay Area Housing Market
•March 17, 2011 - Bay Area Housing Market Stuck in Neutral; Investors, Cash Buyers Active
•April 14, 2011 - Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market
•May 16, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Lose Momentum; Median Price Dips Below 2010 Level - Again
•June 15, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales, Median Price Inch Up from April; Fall below 2010
•July 14, 2011 - Bay Area June Home Sales Surge, Median Price Edges Up to 2011 High
•August 16, 2011 - Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather
•September 16, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Rise; Prices Trend Flat to Downward
•October 14, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago
•November 16, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Up From 2010, Prices Down
•December 14, 2011 - Bay Area Home Prices Low, Sales Creep Up

You should of course check your county and city...

http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx

36   Katy Perry     2012 Apr 21, 1:52pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

fact, it's a bad time to sell or buy in SF.

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