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Still waiting for a bottom?

By iwog   2012 May 1, 11:37pm   3 links   48,919 views   242 comments   watch (0)   quote      

Not a good idea.

#housing

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163   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 9, 4:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Homeboy says

I contradicted EVERYTHING you said.

iwog says

- There was no data error for sales prices. Ever.

So you're insisting that the sales price graphs are wrong even when
Redfin confirmed they are accurate? Lets take these one at a time so the bullshit is crystal clear. What information do you have that the sales price figures are wrong?

164   TechGromit     2012 May 9, 6:15am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I can't help wonder if some people will insist the housing market hasn't bottomed yet at the peak of the Next housing bubble. :)

165   SubOink   52/52 = 100% civil   2012 May 9, 6:55am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

TechGromit says

I can't help wonder if some people will insist the housing market hasn't bottomed yet at the peak of the Next housing bubble. :)

LOL.

166   PockyClipsNow   60/60 = 100% civil   2012 May 9, 7:38am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Its appears we are at the bottom or really really close to it (maybe was last year, maybe was this or next year). BUT this is all predicated on super low mortgage rates staying at or near current levels forever.

I'm pretty sure no one can predict iterest rates. RE people will always predict 'rates will be higher in the future' to get a sale, but rates have been going straight down since 1980, espcecailly after the 911 attack they went down. Mortagage could in fact be in the 1% range in a few years. People are getting 2.7% mortgages this year.

I would predict rates to only go down from here based on trend from 1980 to now.

167   David9   1/1 = 100% civil   2012 May 9, 7:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

PockyClipsNow says

Its appears we are at the bottom or really really close to it (maybe was last year, maybe was this or next year). BUT this is all predicated on super low mortgage rates staying at or near current levels forever.

Fannie Mae made a profit today and one reason was 'higher prices'

http://marketday.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/09/11616640-fannie-mae-doesnt-need-taxpayer-aid-for-1st-time-in-about-4-years?lite

To me, this just validates everything has been fixed all along. Yeah, interest rates, remaining shadow inventory, etc., but how can you predict when you are not in the board room?

168   PockyClipsNow   60/60 = 100% civil   2012 May 9, 8:26am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

of course its all fixed. has been forever.

the government creates ALL bubbles and ALL crashes via policy. in fact you cant even own RE without a stable government in place to draw up lot lines and record titles so government even CREATES real estate ownership to start with.

169   freak80     2012 May 9, 12:21pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Nationally the bubble is mostly deflated, according to Case-Shiller:

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

170   hanera   2/2 = 100% civil   2012 May 10, 2:26am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

wthrfrk80 says

Nationally the bubble is mostly deflated, according to Case-Shiller:

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

Nationally, inflation-adjusted price could continue to decrease for a couple of years but in nominal term, prices in some neighborhoods have started to increase. This is normal. Better neighborhoods always lead the price appreciation.

171   tatupu70     2012 May 10, 2:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

PockyClipsNow says

the government creates ALL bubbles and ALL crashes via policy.

Another tired argument that's already been proven to be false.

At best, government policy had a minor effect. More likely it had next to no effect.

172   Homeboy     2012 May 10, 4:41pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Homeboy says

I contradicted EVERYTHING you said.

iwog says

- There was no data error for sales prices. Ever.

So you're insisting that the sales price graphs are wrong even when

Redfin confirmed they are accurate? Lets take these one at a time so the bullshit is crystal clear. What information do you have that the sales price figures are wrong?

What are you smoking, duck? The SALES prices in those charts took a little dip at the beginning of the year and came up again not much more than to the LOWEST level of the previous year. What do you think that proves?

Are you arguing that it's o.k. to post charts with misleading data errors if only PART of the chart is wrong? Um... it shouldn't have ANY errors, genius. If you were told that ANY of the data is wrong, and you do not know for a fact that the algorithm has been corrected, it is dishonest to continue to use that source as if nothing is wrong.

Do I really have to explain this to you? Holy shit...

173   Homeboy     2012 May 10, 4:44pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

TechGromit says

I can't help wonder if some people will insist the housing market hasn't bottomed yet at the peak of the Next housing bubble. :)

Still. Not. Getting. It.

I never said it hasn't bottomed. I'm saying that whether it has or has not is in no way related to any argument Iwog has made. He ALWAYS says the market is at the bottom. When he's finally right, it will only be through sheer luck.

"Daffodils are yellow because dogs pee on them."

"No, that's not the reason they are yellow."

"I can't believe you don't think daffodils are yellow."

174   Homeboy     2012 May 10, 4:48pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tatupu70 says

PockyClipsNow says

the government creates ALL bubbles and ALL crashes via policy.

Another tired argument that's already been proven to be false.

At best, government policy had a minor effect. More likely it had next to no effect.

I'd love to see this "proof" that the government had nothing to do with the housing bubble. I love good comedy.

175   tatupu70     2012 May 10, 9:20pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Homeboy says

I'd love to see this "proof" that the government had nothing to do with the housing bubble. I love good comedy

You're right--proven to be wrong was a poor word choice.

Let me ask which government policy(ies) do you think are to blame for the housing bubble. I can't debunk it until you say which ones are the culprits.

176   tatupu70     2012 May 10, 9:23pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Homeboy says

He ALWAYS says the market is at the bottom. When he's finally right, it will only be through sheer luck.

That's a boldface lie. He called a bottom in 2009 and has consistently maintained that it will be the ultimate bottom. Now you are making a big deal about how prices have gone down 1-2% below their 2009 bottom. Whoop de do. Personally, I think he's right that prices have pretty much been flat since then. The tax credit had an effect. Seasonality has an effect. But overall, they've been pretty flat.

177   Homeboy     2012 May 12, 10:38am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tatupu70 says

Homeboy says

He ALWAYS says the market is at the bottom. When he's finally right, it will only be through sheer luck.

That's a boldface lie. He called a bottom in 2009 and has consistently maintained that it will be the ultimate bottom. Now you are making a big deal about how prices have gone down 1-2% below their 2009 bottom. Whoop de do. Personally, I think he's right that prices have pretty much been flat since then. The tax credit had an effect. Seasonality has an effect. But overall, they've been pretty flat.

What do you mean *I* am making a big deal? I am not the one who has started thread after thread for the last few years bragging about making a killing in real estate and taunting everyone else with some bullshit that they "missed the bottom". Face it - you guys thought 2009 was the bottom and gloated about your belief that everyone else "missed" it, and you were wrong.

178   Homeboy     2012 May 12, 10:39am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tatupu70 says

You're right--proven to be wrong was a poor word choice.

Apology accepted.

179   freak80     2012 May 12, 11:50am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Should flame wars between bulls and bears be confined to the markets? It seems pointless to argue over something that can't really be proven except in hindsight.

180   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 12, 12:40pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

wthrfrk80 says

Should flame wars between bulls and bears be confined to the markets? It seems pointless to argue over something that can't really be proven except in hindsight.

Homeboy will never admit being a bear. Although he believed the market would continue to crash through 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, he'll never admit it. Instead he just changed his screen name to avoid the ol search engine.

Anyway I'm wrong plenty, I admit it, and don't worry about it.

181   dunnross     2012 May 12, 12:45pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Homeboy will never admit being a bear. Although he believed the market would continue to crash through 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, he'll never admit it. Instead he just changed his screen name to avoid the ol search engine.

Anyway I'm wrong plenty, I admit it, and don't worry about it.

Homeboy had no reason to change his screen name, because the prices did crash through 2009, 2010, 2011 & 2012. And, he had no reason to admit anything, because, he was right. However, iwog was wrong about prices not crashing since 2009, and, being the hard-headed parrot that he is, just won't admit that he is wrong.

182   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 12, 12:48pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Homeboy had no reason to change his screen name, because the prices did crash through 2009, 2010, 2011 & 2012. And, he had no reason to admit anything, because, he was right.

Then explain how he's pretending to quote me from 2008 when he's got a 2010 join date. I know you're a mess dunross, but even you can see how absurd this is.

(btw he only posts in my threads too. LOL)

dunnross says

However, iwog was wrong about prices not crashing since 2009, and, being the hard-headed parrot that he is, just won't admit that he is wrong.

The above graph has absolutely nothing to do with home prices.

183   dunnross     2012 May 12, 12:54pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

The above graph has absolutely nothing to do with home prices.

Sure it does. A lower mortgage payment for 30 years actually means more for buyer than a lower house price. It means, that a buyer now, will only be 1/2 the debt slave he could have been, if he bought back in 2006.

184   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 12, 12:57pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Sure it does. A lower mortgage payment for 30 years actually means more for buyer than a lower house price. It means, that a buyer now, will only be 1/2 the debt slave he could have been, if he bought back in 2006.

Except it doesn't mean that at all and you're just making up shit again. A mortgage payment graph ONLY tracks debt and interest rates and has nothing whatsoever to do with prices.

Interest rates have been declining and mortgage balances have been getting paid off as loans are being written on cheaper post-crash houses.

Seriously Dunross, some of the stuff you come out with (1975 nominal prices for homes) should embarrass the hell out of you.

185   dunnross     2012 May 12, 1:03pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Except it doesn't mean that at all and you're just making up shit again. A mortgage payment graph ONLY tracks debt and interest rates and has nothing whatsoever to do with prices.

If you call basic 5th grade math - just making things up, then you much dumber than I thought:

2006: $1200/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $432,000
2012: $600/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $216,000

So, professor Iwog - tell me which one would you rather have?

186   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 12, 1:22pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

If you call basic 5th grade math - just making things up, then you much dumber than I thought:

2006: $1200/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $432,000
2012: $600/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $216,000

So, professor Iwog - tell me which one would you rather have?

Why do you think this has ANYTHING whatsoever to do with your graph?????

Why do you think the crash in price in your example happened from 2009-2012 instead of 2006-2009????? In fact it probably DID get financed in 2009 or 2010 because it got foreclosed on in 2008 and didn't hit the market again until 2009!!!

That TOTALLY disconnects payments from home prices.

Do you even remember what point you were trying to make?

187   dunnross     2012 May 12, 1:33pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

In fact it probably DID get financed in 2009 or 2010 because it got foreclosed on in 2008 and didn't hit the market again until 2009!!!

Iwog, these are not mortgage payments which are currently outstanding, but mortgage payments which a new buyer commits themselves to. This comes straight out of NAR's data. In fact, according to NAR, even Bay Area new mortgage payment is already 64% below the cycle peak of 2007, and my graph also shows similar data. Therefore, a buyer who buys now, is signing up for 64% less in mortgage payment than a buyer, back in 2007.

188   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 12, 1:38pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Iwog, these are not mortgage payments which are currently outstanding, but mortgage payments which a new buyer commits themselves to.

So fricken what? The lag time between the start of a foreclosure process and the end sale of a new house along with a new mortgage was TWO YEARS!!!!!!!!!

How the hell are mortgage payments supposed to track HOME VALUES if there's a two year lag time between the payment of a loan in foreclosure and the new mortgage?

Explain it to me. I think this is way over your head and I'm not trying to be mean.

189   dunnross     2012 May 12, 1:57pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

How the hell are mortgage payments supposed to track HOME VALUES if there's a two year lag time between the payment of a loan in foreclosure and the new mortgage?

Iwog, you are a BS'er aren't you. You tell me how the payment of a loan in foreclosure, has anything to do with a payment which a new buyer is committing to, right now. I think you've definitely lost it, now, not that you've had any kind of a brain, before.

190   freak80     2012 May 12, 3:34pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I couldn't help but notice it's "Duck vs. Duck", hehe...

191   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 12, 4:11pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

wthrfrk80 says

I couldn't help but notice it's "Duck vs. Duck", hehe...

Dunross thought he was being clever. His icon is supposed to represent me. (notice the hands choking) It's actually a goose but we wont tell him. ; )

You're new here, but when I said 2009 was the bottom, a few people lost their marbles.

192   RentingForHalfTheCost     2012 May 13, 7:30am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

wthrfrk80 says

I couldn't help but notice it's "Duck vs. Duck", hehe...

Dunross thought he was being clever. His icon is supposed to represent me. (notice the hands choking) It's actually a goose but we wont tell him. ; )

You're new here, but when I said 2009 was the bottom, a few people lost their marbles.

2009 was the bottom alright. The bottom of the free equity train. Down we go from here. Enjoy the ride. Concord will be especially hard hit. Just wait until 2013-2014. It will be fun to see who is around here and who just stops posting. I suspect the bears will be still here and the bulls will be asking about foreclosure details. ;)

193   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2012 May 13, 7:36am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

RentingForHalfTheCost says

2009 was the bottom alright. The bottom of the free equity train. Down we go from here. Enjoy the ride. Concord will be especially hard hit. Just wait until 2013-2014. It will be fun to see who is around here and who just stops posting. I suspect the bears will be still here and the bulls will be asking about foreclosure details. ;)

You're also new here. You missed the choice comments where I was going to be financially raped and disappear from the board by the end of 2009, 2010, and 2011 because of a brutal resumption of the real estate crash.

Those people either left the site or created alternate identities like homeboy. Are you going to be here in 2014 to defend your prediction?

194   freak80     2012 May 13, 12:29pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I'd bet on the guy who's a landlord/ property investor. He's the one with skin in the game.

Nationally, it looks like the property bubble is mostly deflated. Some worry about "overshoot" on the way down, but historically the last two "bubbles" didn't have much overshoot. It's hard to "short" real-estate like you can with stocks.

Where I live the point is moot. It's the rust belt and the bubble never hit here at all. The natural gas boom has hit the rental market of course. So many workers want temporary living (they need to be able to move at the drop of a hat). Here the price-to-rent ratio screams "buy buy buy" if you plan to stay here for several years.

195   freak80     2012 May 13, 12:29pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

It's actually a goose but we wont tell him. ; )

Duck, Duck, Goose!

196   Homeboy     2012 May 13, 12:54pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Then explain how he's pretending to quote me from 2008 when he's got a 2010 join date. I know you're a mess dunross, but even you can see how absurd this is.

I see you're cornered again, because you are going back to things that have nothing to do with the subject. I have read the forums here for many years, and I am quite familiar with your b.s.

First of all, I did not "pretend to quote" you. I said that you have been calling the bottom since 2008, which is true. I cannot link to a quote from 2008 because those posts are not available through the search engine. You knew this perfectly well, yet pretended that the search engine worked just so you could feel like you got a "gotcha" point against me.

First you denied that you have ever called the bottom before. When I proved that you did, you then reversed course, changing your argument to admit that you called the bottom, but now claiming that you were right about the bottom. When I proved that you were wrong, you pretended to be talking about the Bay Area only, even though you had specifically written the "general real estate market" when you called the bottom. It's a constant moving target with you, Iwog, but I'm not letting you get away with it.

Now you are obfuscating again by trying to make this about ME, when it is about you and your constant bottom-calling. My join date is not relevant to the discussion. A person can read this forum without having a screen name. You obviously have nothing to say if that's all you can come up with.

So again, why don't you try addressing the fact that you used charts to try to make your point that were declared to be inaccurate last year, with no idea if the algorithm had been corrected? You seem to want to make this about anything except that. You act more like a chicken than a duck.

197   Homeboy     2012 May 13, 12:59pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

You're also new here. You missed the choice comments where I was going to be financially raped and disappear from the board by the end of 2009, 2010, and 2011 because of a brutal resumption of the real estate crash.

Those people either left the site or created alternate identities like homeboy. Are you going to be here in 2014 to defend your prediction?

So now your defense is to make up a strawman argument and claim that I used to be someone else who made this strawman argument?

This is just sad now.

198   Homeboy     2012 May 13, 4:12pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

You missed the choice comments where I was going to be financially raped and disappear from the board by the end of 2009, 2010, and 2011 because of a brutal resumption of the real estate crash.

Are you by chance referring to this exchange? (And no, I am not a reincarnation of "justme", in case that were going to be your next accusation):

http://patrick.net/?p=28542&c=667631#comment-667631

"justme says

IWOG,
And what is your point exactly? All this long-winded verbiage of contorted and meaningless analogies.
You are trying to sow the seed that Patrick.net predicting a further drop in house prices is akin to some internet bubble believers expecting a further RISE in dot.com stock prices in 1999?
How contorted and desperate can an analogy get? This is just off -the-chart wrong.
There is no logic to what your saying. Just stop it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's contorted and desperate. It's off the chart wrong. There's no logic. It's all meaningless. How come you can't say why? I don't care if you trash my posts, but you might have the common courtesy to explain why you think I'm wrong.

My original point wasn't even that the bottom was in 2009. My original point was that AT THE BOTTOM this site and others like it will be calling for further declines. Why? Because that's always what happens.

I'm guilty of being married to an economic viewpoint just like everyone else. I bought silver in 1980 when I was 14 years old. The most valuable lession I've ever learned is to be a contrarian.

I took a firestorm of crap on this board in December 2007 when I showed up here and posted my first home purchase for $317,500. I was gonna go broke. I was insane. I was catching a falling knife. I was gonna get raped!!! Perhaps some of those assertions came from you eh?

Well here's that same purchase over 2 years later.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1156-Carey-Dr-Concord-CA-94520/18366846_zpid/

Take a look at the comparibles on the right hand side and tell me again how I got raped.

I greatly respect Patrick and this website for calling the top and providing a forum for both bulls and bears to present a case. I don't mind criticism, in fact I love criticism. Do you really want me to stop? How are people served by reassuring each other for years and years that real estate will continue to crash? I can't think of any more likely scenario to miss the bottom than that."

Now here's the funny thing. That 2007 purchase you were bragging about - 1156 Carey Dr.? Let's take a look how that's faring now. You say you paid $317, 500. Let's see what the comps on Redfin say it is worth now.

Range: $153,500 - $272,500
Average: $160/Sq. Ft.
This home at $160/Sq. Ft.: $198,942

37% drop. Ouch. You DID get raped. Yet you were holding that up as supposedly some sort of example of how wrong everyone was in 2007. I mean, WTF Iwog? Do you even think about what you write at all?

199   tatupu70     2012 May 13, 10:06pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Homeboy says

I used to be someone else who made this strawman argument

Glad we got that cleared up.

See, I can do it too!

200   freak80     2012 May 13, 11:05pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Welcome back! ;-)

201   Homeboy     2012 May 14, 4:46am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tatupu70 says

Homeboy says

I used to be someone else who made this strawman argument

Glad we got that cleared up.

See, I can do it too!

Yes, I quoted 32 lines of a post that Iwog made, then did detailed research on Redfin to show that the comps are now lower than when he bought the house, and that is exactly the same as you taking 11 words out of context from a sentence I wrote.

I want some of whatever you are smoking, tatupu.

Just curious, what does Iwog's ass taste like, anyway?

202   tatupu70     2012 May 14, 7:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Homeboy says

Yes, I quoted 32 lines of a post that Iwog made, then did detailed research on Redfin to show that the comps are now lower than when he bought the house, and that is exactly the same as you taking 11 words out of context from a sentence I wrote.

Nice try. I was refering to an idiotic post you made quoting one line of mine completely out of context.

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