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Revisiting Silver

By iwog   2012 Jul 2, 4:12am   66,202 views   253 comments   watch (0)   quote      

Although it didn't crash as quickly as I expected, the chart is pure bubble crash at this point.

1. well defined parabolic peak
2. well defined bull trap
3. lower highs, lower lows
4. bear market trend that isn't anywhere close to capitulation

I wouldn't touch the stuff under any circumstances unless it drops near $10 an ounce.

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54   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:47pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Bull Shit. In case, you haven't heard, we are in middle of a credit crunch. This money that the FED is printing is going directly into gold and silver, because, the banks are simply not lending to deadbeat fucked borrowers like you.

Wow......it's clear you don't even know what credit crunch means.

During a credit crunch, the money supply is contracting and thus you have the threat of deflation. I have no idea how you got from "credit crunch" to "money is going into gold and silver" but I'm sure it's intelligent and well thought out.

55   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:49pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Do you think if I extend this graph another 170 years back, you will see anything as spectacular as what you see now? Being a dumbass that you are, you don't even know that we were on a gold standard before 1933, so the money supply remained pretty much constant for 400 years.

What do you consider systemic bank failures in 1929-1933?

Most people would call it a massive credit crunch. LOL

56   Bellingham Bill   73/73 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 2:33pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunross says

Being a dumbass that you are, you don't even know that we were on a gold standard before 1933, so the money supply remained pretty much constant for 400 years

ouch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1819
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1857
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1884

57   Bellingham Bill   73/73 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 2:39pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

58   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 2:42pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Most people would call it a massive credit crunch. LOL

Credit crunch, yes. But, the boom which preceded it was not due to FED's money supply expansion, like it was this time.

59   Bellingham Bill   73/73 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 2:43pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

60   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 2:49pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

I have no idea how you got from "credit crunch" to "money is going into gold and silver" but I'm sure it's intelligent and well thought out.

Because this high-powered money from the FED has to find an outlet. It's not going into mortgages and getting multiplied by banks using these reserves to create even more money out of thin air, like they did, before. So the money is going into the carry trades, since interest rates overseas are higher than the "artificially low" ones which the banks are getting from the FED. The inflation is not here, but it's being exported overseas, and turning up in terms of bread prices and energy prices in places like Egypt and Libya. Citizens of these countries are buying gold, because, they want to protect themselves against inflation exported by our FED. Foreign central banks are also buying gold with the money they get from our banks. Herein lies the source. Of course midget brains like you and roberto cannot begin to comprehend this reality. By the time you do, it will be too late.

61   Bellingham Bill   73/73 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 2:56pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

But, the boom which preceded it was not due to FED's money supply expansion, like it was this time.

The erstwhile Bush Boom required speculative overextension in housing to gain the "traction" that it needed to turn into a bust.

Granted, money supply increased, but the reason the economy crashed in 2008 was because the money flow (via anything-goes mortgage lending) from the world's savers to the US consumer was coming to a close.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=d2b

is quarterly expansion of consumer debt.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=d2c

same graph with Case-Shiller in red.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M3

is, admittedly, an important piece of the puzzle. It was the fuel that found the hole that was our poorly-policed mortgage sector.

2002-2006 the fumes collected, then the explosion of February 2008! First of many.

62   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 22, 1:54am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Because this high-powered money from the FED

High powered money?

dunnross says

has to find an outlet. It's not going into mortgages

You have no idea whatsoever how QE3 works do you.

dunnross says

and getting multiplied by banks using these reserves to create even more money out of thin air, like they did, before.

Sooooo.......we're not in a credit crunch? We're in a historical credit expansion?

63   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 2:30am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

High powered money?

If you don't even know what "High Powered Money" even is, I don't even think I should continue talking to you. You are a true arrogant SOB.

64   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 22, 2:35am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

iwog says

High powered money?

If you don't even know what "High Powered Money" even is, I don't even think I should continue talking to you. You are a true arrogant SOB.

I know exactly what high powered money is and it's all sitting at the federal reserve doing absolutely nothing.

What I'm trying to figure out is why you think new money sitting in a computer at the federal reserve is being used to buy silver, or even more insanely multiplied and lent out through banks?

65   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 2:46am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

even more insanely multiplied and lent out through banks?

You are so self-righteous that you can't even read other people's comments. Why don't you go back and re-read them, again, more carefully.

66   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 2:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

I know exactly what high powered money is and it's all sitting at the federal reserve doing absolutely nothing.

Nominated! Federal reserve is holding "crap", not actually something which is worth anything.

67   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 22, 3:11am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

iwog says

even more insanely multiplied and lent out through banks?

You are so self-righteous that you can't even read other people's comments. Why don't you go back and re-read them, again, more carefully.

Excellent job pretending to have a point but not actually saying anything. If I didn't read your comments, please clarify where my misunderstanding is.

dunnross says

Nominated! Federal reserve is holding "crap", not actually something which is worth anything.

Ahhhh......so your precious high powered money turns into crap when it is put back on deposit at the fed because banks have no one to lend to. Brilliant.

dunnross says

You are a true arrogant SOB.

I'll agree with you that the more intellectually dishonest a person is, the more hostile and condescending I become. It's a character flaw that I fully acknowledge and would like to work on. People who are honest and sincere get along great with me, I suppose that's why I have 51 friends and you have 6 aliases.

68   Bellingham Bill   73/73 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 22, 3:35am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Sooooo.......we're not in a credit crunch? We're in a historical credit expansion?

fwiw:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=d2N

yellow is finance, blue is household, and red is corporate debt

69   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 3:48am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Excellent job pretending to have a point but not actually saying anything. If I didn't read your comments, please clarify where my misunderstanding is.

What I said was this money is not being multiplied, like before the crash, because banks are not lending it.

iwog says

Ahhhh......so your precious high powered money turns into crap when it is put back on deposit at the fed because banks have no one to lend to. Brilliant.

The FED is buying worthless MBS's with this money. The FED's balance sheet includes these at face value, but, actually, they are worth pennies on the dollar.

iwog says

I suppose that's why I have 51 friends and you have 6 aliases.

When you accuse someone of something, you better have some proof of it. But, for you, of course, it's almost every comment you make that doesn't have any proof or substance behind it.

70   B.A.C.A.H.     2012 Nov 22, 4:16am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Jeez dunross, does it really matter? getalife.

71   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 5:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

B.A.C.A.H. says

Jeez dunross, does it really matter? getalife.

Tell that to iwog and 51 of his Virtual friends (Virtual with a BIG V).

72   B.A.C.A.H.     2012 Nov 22, 8:07am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

You guys don't need some survivalist's web site or whackos in flyover states to rationalize using gold and silver as money. American eagles are $50 gold pieces and silver dollars. There's several dominations of pre-1965 US silver coinage that are money, and even up to 1970 issue on the half dollars. Canadian Maple leafs are $5 Canadian money.

73   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 9:27am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Dunross, it is hard to have a conversation with personal attacks like these. They don't add to the discussion, they incite and derail the conversation about silver.

I don't respond to your comments because I don't want to be a target like you've made Iwog who I noticed hasn't responded with a personal attack back. You have some good comments and ones that need clarification but it is hard to hear or even read them with these kinds of attacks.

I am sorry. I am just tired of both iwog and roberto running the show, around here, insulting everyone right and left, and there is nobody who can stand up for themselves. The type of incessant bragging that they are both doing, and defamatory remarks which they make, dwarfs any kind of insulting words which may come from me. Roberto has crowned himself as king of knowledge, but, actually, he is just a wannabe professor realtor. Iwog doesn't know the difference between High Powered Money and Bank Reserves, but they try to pontificate here, like they are Maynard Keynes and Milton Freedman.

74   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 22, 3:04pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

The type of incessant bragging that they are both doing, and defamatory remarks which they make, dwarfs any kind of insulting words which may come from me.

dunnross says

Unlike some of iwog's and other people's predictions, my predictions have been right on the money every time. I have the record to prove it, as I showed you the link to the post which I posted back in 2006 when I told everyone that I sold my house and bought gold with the proceeds at $450/oz.

Note: Gold never came anywhere near $450 an ounce in 2006 and dunross hasn't show anyone any links.

75   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 22, 3:12pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Silver is still in a long term uptrend based on this chart.

Source: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/21_The_Roadmap_For_%243%2C000%2B_Gold%2C_%24100%2B_Silver_%26_1%2C650_HUI.html

The chart doesn't look bad unless you take into account how long the bull market has run. Markets are driven by the way people perceive the media, how long their memory extends back, and what percentage of people are long.

The gold and silver sellers have saturated radio and TV for several years now. It would take an extraordinary number of people all going long to move the markets higher than $50 an ounce and the longer they wait, the more excess supply is going to be available.

Silver might yet make new highs, but I don't think so. I can't imagine anyone has been sitting on the sidelines this long just waiting to jump in.

Furthermore the media is going to be buzzing next year how another hard asset, real estate, is not only an inflation hedge but earns an income as well.

76   dunnross     2012 Nov 22, 4:03pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Note: Gold never came anywhere near $450 an ounce in 2006 and dunross hasn't show anyone any links.

I did explain before that I started buying gold even before I sold my house, back in 2005. I also showed you all my links back from 2006, when I was using goldenboy as the only other alias which I had on patrick. Now those links are gone, but, perhaps, patrick can dig them out in his archives. Basically, I told everyone to sell their house and buy gold with it.

77   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 22, 4:39pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

I did explain before that I started buying gold even before I sold my house, back in 2005. I also showed you all my links back from 2006, when I was using goldenboy as the only other alias which I had on patrick. Now those links are gone, but, perhaps, patrick can dig them out in his archives. Basically, I told everyone to sell their house and buy gold with it.

I don't believe anything you say here.

I believe that someone who has preached repeatedly that the 2013 market for housing will reach nominal 1975 levels is so completely out of touch with reality that there's no way you could even sign a home purchase contract let alone formulate an investment plan for gold and silver back in 2005.

It would be like me predicting silver at $1.25 an ounce by the end of next year. This is not an exaggeration.

78   StillLooking     2012 Nov 24, 3:18am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iWog,

Silver is going higher exactly because real estate is a horrible investment. If the government was actively trying to suppress the price of real estate and increase the price of silver, then real estate would be a good buy.

Do you understand this key concept?

79   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 24, 7:59am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

StillLooking says

iWog,

Silver is going higher exactly because real estate is a horrible investment. If the government was actively trying to suppress the price of real estate and increase the price of silver, then real estate would be a good buy.

Do you understand this key concept?

No. I think it's absurd.

The government is not trying to suppress the price of silver in fact I doubt the government employs a single person that even cares what the silver market does.

The government is definitely trying to increase the price of real estate however the premise that actions which drive one hard asset up in value would drive the other hard asset in the opposite direction is ridiculous. Both silver and real estate are considered inflation hedges.

80   StillLooking     2012 Nov 24, 1:43pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

If the government is actively working to raise the price of real estate in relation to other asset classes, then real estate must be overpriced.

The government is raising the price of real estate above its true intrinsic value.

81   everything     2012 Nov 24, 10:42pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Market manipulation should be a known. From 2001-2009 dow 8 thousand something to 13 thousand something. Then, a run for the exits! Time to start over. 2009-2012 dow 8 thousand something to 13 thousand something. We did in 3 what it took us ten.

Regarding your comment on miners spending billions and billions ramping up mining projects, well, with most metal prices doubled in less than ten years, some in only a few years like this would you not pour as much as you could into expanding your mining operations? I know I would!, and especially while interest rates were cheap!!!

Regarding silver manipulation, question is, are they manipulating it up or down at any given investment cycle, and how long do these cycles last.

82   dunnross     2012 Nov 24, 10:51pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

The banks are offloading this junk to the taxpayer again at full false valuations allowing the banks to theoretically make more loans and increase lending.

Why isn't this illegal? Why isn't there a massive outrage or legal actions? Why are we allowing these banksters to get away with murder?

83   woppa     2012 Nov 25, 1:00am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Dunnross the answer is simple. The large majority of the population is completely ignorant, only a very small percentage have a very good understanding of all the crap that goes on. Americans are much too busy demonizibg unions for all our problems, arguing about health care, taxes, war, gay rights, and abortion, the things we can actually see in front of our faces and at least pretend to understand. It's ignorance, plain and simple. God bless America!

84   dunnross     2012 Nov 25, 7:49am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

they are not helping homeowners.

Why should they help irresponsible homeowners/housedebtors? They shouldn't help anyone, because, they shouldn't have gotten this money from the taxpayer in the first place. All these banks should be bankrupt, and let new ones arise from their ashes. Banks which pay people to save money, not to speculate.

85   dunnross     2012 Nov 25, 11:03am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

The homeowner while not entirely devoid of responsibility is at the bottom rung of the whole mess.

I am sorry, but the bottom of the rung is not the housedebtor. The bottom of the rung is the renter who watched this fake bubble inflate, but was prudent enough not to jump in, and worked his a*ss off trying to save up for the day when his patience pays off, and the market returns to sane valuations. But now, instead of receiving the reward for his prudence he is being told that he has to wait some more, because of irresponsible homedebtors and greedy banksters who need to get their reward, first, for screwing up.

86   dunnross     2012 Nov 25, 11:12am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

take away all equity from peoples homes where the average joe stores his wealth and savings

When people like you finally realize that there was no equity taken away, because, there was no equity, there to begin with? Yes, that would be the true bottom of the market...

87   dunnross     2012 Nov 25, 2:05pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

All the savers really get screwed because they get no bailout.

From the 4 Kondratieff seasons, savers only get one, when they finally come out on top of everyone else. This is the winter season, and this one is theirs.

88   uomo_senza_nome     2012 Nov 27, 7:26pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman,

Ted Butler is a dubious source. And so is Harvey Organ,

See this:

http://www.financialsensearchive.com/editorials/townsend/2010/0419.html

I also suggest reading the comments section of this podcast:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/harvey-organ-get-physical-gold-silver/73933

89   lisalisa     2012 Nov 27, 11:17pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Crash JP Morgan buy silver..

&playnext=1&list=PLD0A12B0EC0D8BA4C&feature=results_video

90   uomo_senza_nome     2012 Nov 28, 11:02am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Contrast the above flawed article against the work of GATA for example and you will see the quality difference in the work of GATA.

James Turk is a credible source?

WTF, he doesn't know what he's talking about. King World News is another gold/silver pimp site.

To really understand the divergence between physical and paper, you need to dig a little deeper.

Such as this article:

http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/central-bank-gold-leasing/

91   uomo_senza_nome     2012 Nov 29, 12:10am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

James Turk the founder of Goldmoney, author of one of the best
books on gold and gold history, and gold banker for Dubai for 20 years?

So what?

Attacking the source instead of the content I posted is called ad hominem. Of course you can choose to ignore me or the facts.

Cheers

92   woppa     2012 Nov 29, 2:31am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Guns and ammo will be more valuable then silver and gold in a currency breakdown. Pile guns and ammo.

93   iwog   1537/1538 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 29, 3:58am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

So Iwog, when the discussion started 6 months ago, silver was sitting at 27.10 the week of July 6th, 2012. It is now sitting at 34.10, a 26% gain 5 months later as of today from the time you wrote off silver as over in a classic bull trap.

What do you think is causing the price of silver to gain 26% since July given the supply is 4.6% increase this year? It certainly seems to be going opposite your prediction.

I was using platinum in modeling the silver bubble. Used for predicting the crash from $44 to $26, it was absolutely stunningly perfect, almost to the day.

Unfortunately for my prediction, the silver chart diverged from platinum which was probably caused by 2 things:

- Silver being widely held with a much larger market and relentless marketing.
- Silver ETFs.

Here's the 1980 bubble. I would suggest shaving the top $!5 off the top because it was due entirely to the Hunts attempting to corner the market. It shows several secondary peaks however each one successively lower.

I don't discount another charge at $50, however falling well short of $50 will convince a lot of the die hards that the jig is up.

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