forgot password?   register

#housing #investing #politics more»
735,969 comments in 75,706 posts by 10,909 registered users, 2 online now: BayArea, errc

new post

Revisiting Silver

By iwog   2012 Jul 2, 4:12am   65,963 views   253 comments   watch (0)   quote      

Although it didn't crash as quickly as I expected, the chart is pure bubble crash at this point.

1. well defined parabolic peak
2. well defined bull trap
3. lower highs, lower lows
4. bear market trend that isn't anywhere close to capitulation

I wouldn't touch the stuff under any circumstances unless it drops near $10 an ounce.

« First     « Previous     Comments 134-173 of 253     Next »     Last »

134   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Dec 8, 8:24am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ask the hunt brothers.

135   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 8, 8:33am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

It doesn't matter what the short term manipulation is as long as you hold
physical and wait. China's buying alone sets a floor on the low price as well as
the $1700 cost to pull out of the ground.

Problem is, a bet is meaningful only if it is leveraged. But if it is leveraged than short-term volatility matters.

136   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 8, 11:55am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Leverage was not the problem. The lesson was that you need to be careful if you become too successful. If you piss off the wrong people they will change the rules against you.

137   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 8, 12:07pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

If they had stayed home they would have been fine too.

Leverage has its place. Just handle with care.

138   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 8, 5:50pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I have a feeling currency collapses will occur elsewhere first. USD may temporarily spike.

Isn't it also important to understand the psychology behind silver traders? When you trade (or invest), you are really trading other traders.

139   B.A.C.A.H.     2012 Dec 9, 1:50am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Here is a reason not to listen to the idiot "respected" financial journals and their puppets

If someone is an "expert", I'd be inclined to do the opposite of what s/he suggests. Not just in finance. In almost everything.

140   woppa     2012 Dec 9, 1:33pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I decided to watch the 20000$ gold video. I find it funny that while the video was starting I felt like I was watching one of those corny infomercials (i.e. Kiyosaki and the other douche, I cant remember his name). Just then he says he wrote a book for Kiyosaki...kinda erked me.

141   everything     2012 Dec 10, 11:41am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Wow, is gold ever going to crash hard when these big hoarders (these days everyone's a gold bug) finally stop what they are doing, though probably not for a few years yet. That is such artificial demand when a country can use a printing press to buy gold, then what good is all that gold? At least some countries know enough, or allow the public to use it in trade (Dinar). It's sad to make the little countries suffer as the big countries play their game of who can create the most inflation and in the case of the China, then hope to establish the dominate currency by trying to ultimately establish or simulate a gold standard. (never happening) Everywhere I turn, people are saying gold and silver is where it's at, the only real reason being is because the jig is up that world governments are the biggest baddest gold hoarders/stackers out of them all. This has ended up creating a PM commodity bubble of proportions never seen or heard of, especially with interest rates this low. I'm just glad I figured this out before all my cash eventually flowed into physical PM. As long as the dollar is the reserve currency the dollar will remain strong. If I lived in some of these smaller countries that have such terrible inflation things would be different and I would have significant PM holdings. For now, I'm keeping my PM holdings at about 10% of my investment portfolio. Still, am still a PM investor, when silver drops below $30 I add to the stack, averaging in about 100 oz. physical yearly.

142   everything     2012 Dec 12, 11:19pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Central banks are leasing gold into the market? When you lease the gold it disappears? I think that gold is long gone? I don't think their is any left in the system? All answers from Sprott answered in the form of questions! Sprott did not look into his camera more than a couple of times during the whole interview, also his arms are crossed much of the time. He says silver is going to be $200 and gold $3000 within two years, sure maybe if the interest rates keep going down. Since interest rates are bottomed so has silver and gold topped, neither are going anywhere the last two years.

It's probably more likely the central banks or governments will use the gold reserves to buy back the over printed currencies like a stock buyback program corporations do when they become to diluted. If they sold it once, they'll sell it again.

Truth is the gold has gone nowhere, it's only exchanged hands, we don't use hardly any in production, it's all sitting in vaults, safe boxes, safes, hoarded, jewelery, and even buried.
Also, if it's leased that just means it's sitting in someone else's vault so someone can use it as an ETF. IF interest rates go back up those investors will to some exent flee the commodity bubble for the safety of CD's for instance.

I buy silver because I believe that one day we will have a green revolution and then it will shine, and secondly a store of value to exchange for the devaluing dollars. I'm on board, I just bought 30 oz. of silver but I'm still saving a shitpile of dollars for any pullback and buying opportunities.

143   woppa     2012 Dec 15, 9:36am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Can you explain why buying eagles is better than bars and rounds?

144   woppa     2012 Dec 15, 11:19am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

All the same goes for gold as well I assume?

145   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 12:19pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I like gold more than silver. The storage cost for physical silver is way too high.

146   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 12:33pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

What about a combination of physical gold, paper gold, and silver derivatives? This way, you can have the safety of the metal and the potential growth of the silver/gold ratio.

Not investment advice.

147   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 12:45pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Have you looked into GDX?

148   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 12:47pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Store it at home for nothing but the cost of a safe.

Unless you have a really fancy safe built into the structure of the house... it only serves to attract the attention of the burglar.

You may as well find some creative places to hide them.

149   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 12:51pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

I suggest you read my post above on the weak hands. The market will
eat you alive if you try to beat HFT and algorithmic trading and corrupt brokerages.

You do not need to beat HFT and algorithms. They just create a whole different market micro-structure.

For example, HFT does not affect a 5 min bar series the same way it affects a tick series. You need to be careful with physical stops. The game has changed, but human traders can co-exist with robots.

150   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 12:59pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

There is no accurate price discovery in a manipulated market from my perspective and in a market where a firm pays
the brokerage to look at your stops and orders and put in orders before yours, it isn't an even playing field anymore.

Depending on your time frame stops may or may not hurt you. Lower time-frame trading has become very difficult.

underwaterman says

That is why people are withdrawing money from the market and volume is low now.

Not sure if that is the reason. The stock market is not very volatile, which makes a horrible trading environment.

151   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 15, 1:01pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

How would a thief even know you have a safe and something worth stealing?

You better hide the safe and hide it well.

152   uomo_senza_nome     2012 Dec 25, 9:57pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

The Professor says

So why has silver dropped this month?

Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver LOL ROTFL LMAO

153   Peter P   78/78 = 100% civil   2012 Dec 30, 3:33am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Gold is international. Just watch GC/YG/ZG at night and you will see that there is a lot of trading going on.

154   Facebooksux     2013 Jan 17, 12:30pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote

Gee, the Mint ran out of Silver Eagles.

I guess the economy is GREAT and there's nothing wrong with my BernankBux!!!

155   tr6   61/61 = 100% civil   2013 Jan 20, 8:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

robertoaribas says

The silver market is billions of dollars of trades; One person, hell even one government can't "manipulate it" to make it go down. Since you are very stupid, you don't respond to the substance, and attack me.

When the oil market went to almost 150 in 2008, there was one player that had a 12% position. I would say that one player can manipulate almost any commodity market. Oil is a much bigger market than silver.

156   tr6   61/61 = 100% civil   2013 Jan 20, 9:07am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

robertoaribas says

every single time oil goes up, that same claim comes out; every single time absolutely 100% of economists refute it; Oil goes up for many reasons, supply, demand, fear premium based on middle east politics, but the same person cornering a bunch of it, would later have to sell it, creating a glut... so the net result, would be huge risk for potentially negative payoff.

You are full of it. I was in the market at the time and it had nothing to do with supply and demand. Who are these 100% of economists that refute it? You are starting to sound like a person who does not do his homework and blabs about every topic.

157   Bigsby     2013 Jan 20, 4:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

robertoaribas says

Please, post more investment advice, so I can do the opposite and make money!

Yes, my sole purpose in life is to serve miss roberta and post for your amusement and insane attacks and incessant ranting about your investment.

And your incessant ranting on gold and silver in virtually every thread you've posted on? Presumably that doesn't count.

158   Bigsby     2013 Jan 20, 5:22pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

You'll have to excuse those of us with a more private, sane, and intelligent approach.

What would that be then? Buying RE in 2005 and 2006 and selling in 2012? Or perhaps lapping up the predictions of gold bulls, some of whom seemed to have gold reaching $10,000+ by 2011. How have those 'private, sane and intelligent' approaches been working for you?

159   Bigsby     2013 Jan 20, 7:45pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

underwaterman says

This is a thread about silver and it's big daddy gold. I'm a little tired of you hijacking every thread to make it about your neurosis and narcissism.

Bigsby says

And your incessant ranting on gold and silver in virtually every thread you've posted on? Presumably that doesn't count.

Out goes miss roberta, in comes the mental midget tag team to fill in hijacking the thread. Where are all of your minime midget buddies? I bet they will be here soon adding more nonsense and attacks to the thread because miss roberta can't defend herself.

You do like your repetitive themes, don't you? You accuse people of hijacking threads whilst you simultaneously post the same gold related drivel in every single thread you go to. You accuse Roberto of stalking you whilst you appear to post at least five overly long and over-wrought posts to every one of his short, generally insulting posts. You complain about people insulting you whilst invariably insulting people in your own posts. And on and on you go.

160   Bigsby     2013 Jan 20, 7:48pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

underwaterman says

You'll have to excuse those of us with a more private, sane, and intelligent approach.

What would that be then? Buying RE in 2005 and 2006 and selling in 2012? Or perhaps lapping up the predictions of gold bulls, some of whom seemed to have gold reaching $10,000+ by 2011. How have those 'private, sane and intelligent' approaches been working for you?

That approach would be to start ignoring obvious midget brains and start lapping up more good information from people who know something about gold and silver and basic economics rather than wasting time mentally wrestling with clowns like you.

Knock yourself out. I'm sure you'll have fun following those who predicted gold to be $10,000 in 2011. Clearly they know what they're talking about.

161   Bigsby     2013 Jan 20, 7:50pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Yes, I see you adopted the strawman argument of your master as well midget minime. Yes, all my posts in every other thread than this one just talks about gold and silver. Your master miss roberta and your clown circus attacks my arguments via my investments and then proceed to attack me for answering your questions about said investments. Every post in the thread before miss roberta appears waving his big dick 14 house investment was on topic by me without any mention of gold and silver including the last threads.

It's not a strawman argument you plum. You've posted the same stuff about gold in completely different and utterly unrelated threads. I was pointing out your hypocrisy. You whine about things that you yourself do all the bloody time.

162   Bigsby     2013 Jan 20, 7:59pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Care to ever present a real argument on a topic appropriate to the thread or is it you just feel compelled to constantly attack the person without adding anything to the discussion?

There's no point where you and your comments are concerned. You don't want a discussion, you simply want to make your points and insult those who disagree. You have already posted over-and-over again about the enormous woodie you have for gold. I don't share your excitement and wouldn't bore everyone with repeated 500+ word posts about what I believed the future of gold was once I'd made my point. You, in contrast, appear to like the sound of your own typing and seem very pleased with yourself simply repeating the same points constantly whatever the thread is about.
Why not just give it a rest and post about something else for a change? And whilst you're at it, why not have a break from your Roberto fixation for a while? You're coming across as more than a little unhinged.

163   tatupu70     2013 Jan 20, 8:23pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    


For the record, its not an Ad Hominem attack if Roberto uses your previous history of poor investing decisions to conclude that your current investment ideas are probably not worth following. That's just logic 101.

An Ad Hominem attack would be if he said that because you don't know the difference between the word lose and loose, therefore all your investing decisions are poor.

Do you see the difference?

164   everything     2013 Jan 21, 2:01pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

The last two years have been excellent times to invest in silver. Last year we went from about $27 to about $37, back down to $27 then up to about $35, LOTS of opportunity to buy and sell, much more than most RE deals. Heck, since the RE market crashed silver has been the best investment of almost anything.

In 2008 silver went from $10 up to almost $50 in 2010!, know of any RE deals go up 5 times in value between 2008 and 2010?, didn't think so!

Roberto!, with your cash flow, learn to buy into these dips, RE is not the only game in town.

Gold is an entirely different game, that's for the big players now, we got world government banks literally printing money and using that to buy gold. That's big demand!

When world governments are buying gold people are paying some attention.

165   pdh     2013 Jan 22, 3:45am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

robertoaribas says

My posts, which are on her for the past number of years, show how I've analyzed the market, and how successful my return for such has been.

And what an attention-whore you are.

166   Bigsby     2013 Jan 22, 9:19am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

I actively avoid this idiot as I've stated many times and is why I spend most of my time in threads like these so I don't have to listen to the crap he and his merry band of mental midgets put out.

Don't be stupid. You quite obviously don't actively avoid him. On the contrary, you go out of your way to post multiple responses to each and every one of his posts at you. On what planet does that amount to actively avoiding someone?

167   Bigsby     2013 Jan 22, 9:44am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

I don't talk about gold and silver except when asked about it. I have only talked about it in 2 threads ever, this one and the last thread. I only talked about it last thread after my 30 comments on housing bubble and you clowns started attacking my investment and asking about it.

Well, that's bullshit for a start. You posted about it in all of the last three threads you've been spending your time on. Only one of those was related:

Revisiting Silver
Why is for sale inventory so low?
12 Cities Where You Can Buy a Foreclosed Home for Half Price

Can't be bothered to look further than that, but I'd hazard a guess those three threads right there constitute a good portion of your total comments.

168   Bigsby     2013 Jan 23, 4:14am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

You idiots expect me to crawl into a whole and let accusations and lies fly so I answer attacks with demonstrations of distorted ignorant comments just as I'm answering yours for the 2nd time. I answer each distorted comment thrown at me and accuse me of not ignoring him or you. Nice catch 22 you've set up there. Stupid is as stupid does as forest gump says.

I don't expect that at all, but you shouldn't pretend that you are actively avoiding him either. Just respond to him rather than always spouting that people are stalking you or that you are avoiding them. See?

169   Bigsby     2013 Jan 23, 5:04am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

No, I don't see. You complain when I respond to his stalking me into this thread and his statement "No way, I'm going to expose you for the fraud that you are" or something to this effect. I ended the conversation in the last thread and now you and he are following me into this thread . He follows me into this thread for no other reason but to continue his attack on me just as you are doing now. I respond to his statements but somehow it is me attacking him and me talking about gold in a gold and silver thread. I came into this thread to update the movement in silver to avoid your combined idiocy.

I'm not complaining about you responding to him - that is simply you twisting what I am saying. You complain about his insults, you claim he's stalking you, you claim you are actively ignoring him. The point is that you also insult all the time, you post more responses to him than he does to you, and you most certainly aren't ignoring him.
And my point about your gold and silver posts is that you are repeating the same points over and over again in different unrelated threads. You denied that. I showed you'd done it in the last three threads you've posted on. You sound like you are peddling something.

170   Bigsby     2013 Jan 23, 5:20am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Yes, I did deny it because it is untrue. I responded to questions asked of me by you and your clown circus. Post real examples with permalinks and I'll complete the demonstration showing how each remark is a response to a previous question. Some points are repeated over and over again because you guys don't talk about my actual arguments, but ignore or distort them so I'm left with nothing but essentially repeating a simple logical argument to point out how you've distorted it.

Anybody can go to the threads I mentioned and see what you posted. You've just admitted what I said was true and yet you are still trying to deny it in the same bloody post.

171   Bigsby     2013 Jan 23, 5:42am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

The Professor says

Or ignore them. It really works.

This works with most people but these guys are pretty thickheaded. I've tried this and it doesn't seem to stop them from attacking or posting in threads. In some cases, it seems to support their distortions because they will attack and then no response comes and people assume their point is correct and you are running away in fear.

No, you haven't. If you had ignored said people, then you wouldn't be spending your time posting half page responses to them.
And what distortions are those? You weren't responding to any comment by Roberto etc... or any comment directed at you when you jumped on the opportunity to start on your gold fixation in the 'Why is for sale inventory so low' thread. So who exactly is distorting the truth?

172   Bigsby     2013 Jan 23, 5:50am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

The point is that you also insult all the time, you post more responses to him than he does to you

Already answered multiple times. Tit for tat. Only my tat is a little more colorful.

So don't fuckin' complain about it!

173   Bigsby     2013 Jan 23, 5:54am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

Bigsby says

The point is that you also insult all the time, you post more responses to him than he does to you

Already answered multiple times. Tit for tat. Only my tat is a little more colorful.

So don't fuckin' complain about it!

Your the only one complaining about it from what I can see.

Duh! You complain about people insulting you all the time whilst you do as much if not more of the insulting. I'm complaining about your hypocrisy. See the difference?

« First     « Previous     Comments 134-173 of 253     Next »     Last »

users   about   suggestions   contact  
topics   random post   best comments   comment jail  
patrick's 40 proposals  
10 reasons it's a terrible time to buy  
8 groups who lie about the housing market  
37 bogus arguments about housing  
get a free bumper sticker:

top   bottom   home