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My predictions for tomorrow's election

By iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 5, 7:54am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (3)   3 links   17,843 views   81 comments   watch (0)   share   quote  

Obama will win the popular vote by 1%. Florida is too close to call although I think Romney will squeak out a win here. The rest of the map will look like this:

Senate results: Democrats retain the Senate with 53 votes. (including 2 independents)
House results: No big change here. Democrats will probably pick up a handful of seats.

#politics

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42   HeadSet   2012 Nov 6, 11:32pm  ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Incredible pick, IWOG. It is as if you had the day after's newspaper delivered 2 days in advance.

43   bdrasin   2012 Nov 6, 11:51pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

HeadSet says

Incredible pick, IWOG. It is as if you had the day after's newspaper delivered 2 days in advance.

Or as if he reads the polls and doesn't play mind-games with himself. As George Orwell said "To see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle".

44   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 2:32am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda BS from Rasmussen.

Scientific sampling has gotten so accurate now that unless there's an intentional bias, there isn't going to be any surprises.

45   thomaswong.1986   2012 Nov 7, 2:44am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

I'm counting the 2 independents as Democrats.

No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

LOL! Have fun with that one.

46   curious2 (79/79 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 2:47am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda

Sincere congratulations on a very accurate prediction. Also your modesty becomes you.

I expected President Obama to be re-elected, but I thought the Democrats would lose the Senate. Specific policies remain unpopular (e.g. ObamaCare), but the Republicans' voter suppression efforts seem to have backfired, producing long lines of determined voters at the polls. Even Ohio, where Republicans control the voting machines with no paper trail, is reporting Democratic President Obama and Democratic Senator Brown.

47   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 2:49am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

thomaswong.1986 says

No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

LOL! Have fun with that one.

Why? I'm not a socialist, in fact I really like Angus King from Maine and I would expect that we both have many views in common.

48   Bellingham Bill (20/20 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 2:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

thomaswong.1986 says

you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

"The Senate’s recent overuse of the filibuster has stalled progress on practically every issue of importance in America" -- Angus King

Unless he's stuck in 2005 he's not a right wing nutjob, LOL

heh, he even correctly specified what he was saying with the key word recent

The other independent is Bernie Sanders of course. Um, yeah. I think Republicans in general are just "taking the piss" now as the Brits say.

Somebody tell me when they have something interesting to say 'cuz they are all going back on ignore now.

49   michaelsch   2012 Nov 7, 3:01am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Congratulations!

It played much better than I could hope. I thought Romney would take Florida and probably Virginia. Was not sure about Nevada, Colorado, and even Iowa. He failed miserably in all of them. Especially amazing were the Florida results.

The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election. That's a very important change, crooks like Adelson have lost.

I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

50   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 3:02am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

michaelsch says

I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

Life is good!

51   thomaswong.1986   2012 Nov 7, 3:06am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election. That is not a stimulus to the economy.

52   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 3:09am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

thomaswong.1986 says

one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election.

That's not true since money invested in any industry does expand into other industries. (example: political ads need graphic artists who need systems techs who need hardware etc.)

Anyway I didn't say it would be a huge effect, but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing.

53   Bellingham Bill (20/20 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 3:21am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing

too bad it doesn't stay in the paycheck economy that long . . .

54   bdrasin   2012 Nov 7, 5:08am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

55   dublin hillz   2012 Nov 7, 5:14am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

56   edvard2   2012 Nov 7, 5:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

dublin hillz says

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

But what's key here is that an awful lot of those on the right hold those beliefs very dear and probably will continue to believe in them. What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers. Anyway- good for Democrats anyway you slice it.

57   Bellingham Bill (20/20 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 5:36am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

edvard2 says

What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers

plus the boomers are in fact dying off now. Not that they are bad people, but the America they want and the America we're going to have in 2050 are two different things.

21st century is going to belong to the Millennials, and they're aged 10-30+ right now. I consider myself an honorary Gen Y-er, LOL

58   Vicente   2012 Nov 7, 5:38am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

dublin hillz says

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

Or they gave Teabaggers their shot, and found out instead of JOBS JOBS JOBS they wanted to trot out their craziness about God & abortions and such. The monomoniacal obsession with unseating Obama was cute at first but got old after people saw that there weren't gulags and Stasi on every corner after all. Time for a rotation, maybe they'll come back into fashion again like bellbottoms in a few years. The public is fickle.

59   WaPoIsHitler Lipsovitch (63/63 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 6:05am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Good thing FedEx just delivered our survival rations, Martha.

After I dig another 6 foot deep cache behind the shed, water the horse and plug up the leaky barn roof with some tar paper, let's go cash my Social Security Disability check so we can buy more ammo to defend ourselves from the Moocher Hordes who are going to show up presently.

60   errc (32/32 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 11:37pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

michaelsch says

The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

"To see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle"

And the top three Obama "Super PACs" dumped in another $58 million. All that totals more than $874.6 million dollars spent — before the election.

On the Romney side, the campaign had spent $360.4 million in that same time frame, which was joined by $284.2 million by the Republican National Committee and $200.1 million from the top three Romney Super Pacs. All told, that’s more than $844.6 million.

The Obama team held the lead by about $30 million as of October.

61   errc (32/32 = 100% civil)   2012 Nov 7, 11:44pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

dublin hillz says

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

Obama 60,664,653
Romney 57,823,552

not sure that is a thorough rejection, Obama received 50% of the popular vote while romney got 48%

With 97 percent of precincts reporting, The Associated Press' figures showed more than 118 million people had voted in the White House race, but that number will go up as more votes are counted. In 2008, 131 million people cast ballots for president, according to the Federal Election Commission.

They attribute the lower turnout to hurricane Sandy aftermath, but i think it has more to do with general dissatisfaction with government.

62   rdm   2012 Nov 8, 12:47am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

michaelsch says

The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

I think that money is most effective against a non incumbent. How do you re-define a person that has been likely the most highlighted person in the world for the past four years? On the other hand Obama's money did allow them to define Romney as an arrogant plutocrat which was pretty easy, given that is what he is. I think Obama could have been beaten by a better candidate but given the republican primary field Romney probably was their best bet.

63   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 May 1, 3:06am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Call it Crazy says

Hmmm... Who was wrong here???

Are you insane?

64   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 May 1, 5:23am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

What cracks me up is that I called the election perfectly, yet screwball over here bumps the thread as an example of getting it wrong.

WTF??

65   Ironman (167/179 = 93% civil)   2014 May 1, 5:44am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

What cracks me up is that I called the election perfectly, yet screwball over here bumps the thread as an example of getting it wrong.

WTF??

Nice try asshole.... You bumped your own thread using a comment I didn't even make... Liar!!!

66   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 May 1, 6:23am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Call it Crazy says

Nice try asshole.... You bumped your own thread using a comment I didn't even make... Liar!!!

DAMN good job predicting the election results no?

At the same time you were posting unskewedpolls.com and calling the election for Romney.

67   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 May 1, 6:30am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Ahh yes.......here we go:

Call it Crazy says

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

That was some INSANE stuff back then. LOL

68   ChapulinColorado   2014 Nov 3, 4:01pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Update?

69   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 3, 4:13pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

I don't see any way the Republicans don't take the Senate. I'm guessing they will have 51 or 52 seats.

They will also gain seats in the house.

A Supreme Court vacancy under these conditions will force a constitutional crisis with the president asserting his constitutional right to fill the seat and the Senate asserting the recent Republican policy of scorched earth and killing anything Obama wants.

This is actually for the best although the nation isn't going to know it until 2020. Republicans need to win the White House in 2016 in order for the nation to be saved by 2020. A Clinton win in 2016 will possibly muddy the waters and obscure the true cause of the nation's financial collapse as well as obscure the path back out.

70   ChapulinColorado   2014 Nov 3, 4:18pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Dude, you scare me with your predictions, mostly because they are more spot-on than not. We're screwed!

71   Waitup (1/1 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 3, 5:35pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Who cares! The goons at Electoral College decide who wins anyway! This is all a sham!

72   Bellingham Bill (20/20 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 3, 8:44pm  ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Iwog says

Republicans need to win the White House in 2016 in order for the nation to be saved by 2020.

Can't have an FDR without a Hoover first?

You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

I'm still kinda shell-shocked here, TBH. Trillion (!) dollar wars.

TRILLIONS! The public wealth we could have made with that investment, pissed away in the mideast.

Then all the anti-gay bullshit Rove ginned up, then the mortgage deregulation bullshit that pumped up a multi-trillion housing bubble, enough to take out the global credit system like 1929.

The Bush credit bubble. Actually worse than that since PI went to the 1% and new household debt went to the 99%.

And yet Republicanism is back after its drubbings of 2006 & 2008, and we can't even blame gerrymandering.

Romney '16!

73   CL (3/3 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 3, 10:03pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

That's how I feel. Let the GOP burn the place down. The voters need to be reminded, apparently, just how terrible the jackass gop is.

74   zzyzzx (100/100 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 3, 10:56pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

I don't see any way the Republicans don't take the Senate. I'm guessing they will have 51 or 52 seats.

Since there is the potential for multiple runoffs, we may not know for some time.

75   Ironman (167/179 = 93% civil)   2014 Nov 3, 11:32pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

CL says

That's how I feel. Let the GOP burn the place down. The voters need to be reminded, apparently, just how terrible the jackass gop is.

Exactly, because the economy/wages/business growth has been so awesome over the last 6 years. (We won't include the additional 2 years of Bush's term where the Dems controlled Congress)....

76   APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   2014 Nov 4, 12:13am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Bumper crop of yams this fall.

We end up with a GOP Senate and they declare 17 wars, enact a tax repeal, eliminate all financial regulation, establish rape as a secular sacrament and suspend the 13th and 14th Amendments, I'm ready.

77   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 4, 12:34am  ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (3)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Bellingham Bill says

Can't have an FDR without a Hoover first?

Correct. American citizens are rather stupid and complacent. They will need to be punished before they vote for their own good.

We have such a strong and pervasive right-wing propaganda machine in place now that any perceived control by the Democrats is going to be jumped on exactly like the CRA was blamed for the housing bubble and collapse. Just like 70% of Americans believed Iraq was involved in 9/11 back in 2003 when we went to war for no reason.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-09-06-poll-iraq_x.htm

I'll say it once again: This isn't a battle over spending or ideologies or the direction of the country. This is a battle between knowledge and ignorance. Truth and lies. Reality versus fantasy. Republicans are the thugs Orwell wrote about. They have created a ministry of truth and far too many citizens are sucking it up.

Perhaps it's time China took over the reigns of world dominance. This country can't persist much longer this way.

78   mell (31/31 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 4, 12:49am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Bellingham Bill says

And yet Republicanism is back after its drubbings of 2006 & 2008, and we can't even blame gerrymandering.

Romney '16!

Because they had a superior tax plan with a levy on the 1% and end of special interest deductions instead of parading on hope and change while raping the wage-slaves. Everybody with a functioning pair of eyes can walk around and immediately notice the widened wealth-gap and reflated bubble. If the Libertarian wing takes command I am all for it. Bring it on.

79   iwog (226/226 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 4, 12:54am  ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

mell says

Because they had a superior tax plan with a levy on the 1% and end of special interest deductions instead of parading on hope and change while raping the wage-slaves. Everybody with a functioning pair of eyes can walk around and immediately notice the widened wealth-gap and reflated bubble. If the Libertarian wing takes command I am all for it. Bring it on.

The widened wealth gap was created by Republicans by the 1920s and it is again being created by Republican policies in the 2010s.

You voted for it so I hope you enjoy it.

80   zzyzzx (100/100 = 100% civil)   2014 Nov 4, 1:38am  ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

The widened wealth gap was created by Republicans by the 1920s and it is again being created by Republican policies in the 2010s.

You voted for it so I hope you enjoy it.

81   marcus (108/115 = 93% civil)   2014 Nov 5, 1:45pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Bellingham Bill says

You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

How will it be ? At least a third of the country are idiots that loves them their talk radio and Fox news. Another 20%, at least, are not THAT stupid, but they are either in the 'fuck you I've got mine' club, or they're in the south or otherwise are programmed to HATE the damn libruls with a passion, although try to get them to explain why and you get some foggy nonsense covering up their real reasons, which is just HATE,... of themselves probably first and foremost.

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