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House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst

By HousingBoom   2012 Nov 20, 4:17pm   2 links   30,256 views   105 comments   watch (1)   quote      

Numbers don't lie!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49436858/?fb_action_ids=552912418057720&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A306426616129186%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like%22%7D

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26   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 9:26am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

iwog says

t's 1st quarter 2012 data

You're learning to read. This is good!

Yes but you still don't know how to read. The drop you reported was YoY from Q1 2011. It has no relevance whatsoever to the rental market in 2012, which is on fire. It's totally worthless.

27   EastCoastBubbleBoy     2012 Nov 21, 9:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

And worse yet(for you anyways), another 35 MILLION housing units have just started to empty as boomers head to the grave.

Not necessarily. Most boomers will leave their homes to their children. Their children will then be faced with a decision.

1) try and sell it
2) try and rent it out
3) move into it
4) do nothing, and let it rot into the ground (or revert to the lender)

So all things being equal, only a fraction of the 35 million houses will become inventory – and even then it will be a process that plays out over decades.

The oldest baby boomers are just now turning 70. The youngest are only 48.
The average life expectancy in the US is 78.2 (75.6 yrs for men, 80.8 yrs for women)

The inventory will not flood the market all at once, and who knows where house prices and inventory levels will be ten or fifteen years from now.

28   Kevin     2012 Nov 21, 9:36am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

Kevin says

ou're arguing that 30%+ of all houses are empty. You are either just making shit up, or are you confusing the term "owner occupied" with "occupied" (hint: non-owner occupied means "rental")

Learn math. There are 130million houses in the US... and growing. 20million are empty.

And worse yet(for you anyways), another 35 MILLION housing units have just started to empty as boomers head to the grave.

Ah, right, I was looking at outdated data that said there were about 105M. The CB says 132M.

But your vacancy rate figures are still pure bullshit:

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr312/q312press.pdf

~3.8M empty rentals
~1.7M empty non-rentals

Retiring baby boomers will sell their homes and move into apartments. Unless they burn the house down or die it will have zero impact on vacancy rates.

29   swebb     2012 Nov 21, 10:14am  ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

It's just another one of your fabrications. We know you all too well.

You got me there! I fabricated the definition of speculator on Investopedia to make you look bad.

IWOG, for the love of god, click the "Ignore" link on this idiot. He isn't interested in intelligent debate, seeking truth, or as far as I can tell anything worthwhile. I ignored him and it's fantastic. I only see his posts when a) he is the original poster, b) someone responds to his idiotic posts. People like him detract from / dilute the value of the forums. If we could just get more people to click the ignore link it would make this a better place.

30   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 10:26am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

swebb says

IWOG, for the love of god, click the "Ignore" link on this idiot. He isn't interested in intelligent debate, seeking truth, or as far as I can tell anything worthwhile. I ignored him and it's fantastic. I only see his posts when a) he is the original poster, b) someone responds to his idiotic posts. People like him detract from / dilute the value of the forums. If we could just get more people to click the ignore link it would make this a better place.

Literally LOL here.

What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait. Sometimes as in this instance however it's almost worth it.

Sorry Darrell, it's time for you to go. Swebb is right.

31   Fucking White Male   233/234 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 10:35am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Fwiw, I do agree that rents were rising during the past two years.

In Los Angeles, they actually did push too high. This creates all sorts of problems...namely people who don't pay and must be evicted, unauthorized subleasing which creates crowded buildings and increased chance of damage, etc

Rents hit a wall in September and have been declining since. I signed a new lease at the end of October and already regret it. I knew rents were starting to decline but was fearful that there wouldn't be many places available when my lease expired in January. Boy was I ever wrong. Last week, after nearly two years of 100% occupancy, my building advertises four units on Craigslist. And now all sorts of nearby units available, at prices from over two years ago as well.

I'll be VERY surprised if we don't see a 7-10% decline in rents in Los Angeles by the end of 2013.

32   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 10:47am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units.

Wow, a 10 million drop since... well, your last made up figure.

33   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 11:15am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

Hello my realtor friend..... and we know what you realtors are about...... "bigsby". lmao

It's a new construction pimping life for Darrell.

34   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 11:46am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby the realtor and his imaginary contracting business..

Who's claiming to be a contractor? You. And at $60/sqft no less. "Darrell", the garden shed new construction pimp.

35   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 11:56am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

And realtor bigsby backpedals furiously.

Did you really think we've believed you?

Wow, I'm a man of many talents. First I was apparently a realtor, now according to "Darrell", I've become a contractor. And all based from Kuwait. Long distance construction and home selling indeed. It all sounds nearly as impressive as your nationwide garden shed construction empire.

36   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 11:58am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

You're no man... that we're certain of.

Oh, Darrell, you've hurt my feelings.

37   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 12:03pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

Substantiate your bidding, estimating and construction experience...."bigsby".

Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

38   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 12:05pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

39   Bigsby     2012 Nov 21, 12:06pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

You don't have any idea

How anyone can claim that building costs average $60/sq ft? You're right, I don't.

40   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 12:28pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

robertoaribas says

Where I come from, being called a liar is serious

Are you from Saudi Arabia? What if I call you a Dog Fucker?

41   Kevin     2012 Nov 21, 12:37pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

And here we are with another misrepresentation. But we're not surprise.

The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0984.pdf

I posted data that was current as of Q3 2012. You posted data from 2010.

I win.

42   Kevin     2012 Nov 21, 12:41pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Darrell In Phoenix says

Yes "kevin" you get to be right.

But the truth remains.

Yes, it does. The *exact same source that you used* says that total vacancies are under 6M vacancies as of two months ago (we'll have even more up to date figures in January).

I can't for the life of me figure out what's wrong with you. I give up.

43   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 12:50pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

It's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game.

You did get one thing right. You can't understand.

44   Kevin     2012 Nov 21, 12:57pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

t's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game.

Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family.

Still, the idea that baby boomers are going to suddenly start dying off in droves without appropriate replacement levels is pretty amusing.

I'm glad I'm betting on the opposite happening.

45   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 12:58pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

It's a zero sum game

Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

46   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:01pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Kevin says

Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family.

Sure, and population grows at about 1% and the price of gasoline will drive people in and out of far-flung suburbs depending on if it's high or low. There are multiple factors. Baby boomers might invigorate the healthcare economy and wages might start going up again.

You gotta make your bets somewhere.

47   Kevin     2012 Nov 21, 1:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Future rent increases seem contingent on tighter lending standards.

If it becomes harder and harder to buy a home without 20% down, for instance, there will be more renters.

48   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:02pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

dunnross says

Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement.

Then examine WHY you were wrong. Unless you do this and have logical explanations, you are in no position to teach me or anyone else about the real estate market.

According to you rents CAN'T be going up but they are doing so anyway. Presenting an argument why reality can't be true is a piss poor way to debate a topic.

49   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:04pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement.

I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

50   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:06pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

51   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:08pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

dunnross says

I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

You don't work with any trends and your predictions are ludicrous. You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly.

Yet prices aren't even doing their usual winter slump this year.

Isn't it about time you admitted you screwed up? No one here agrees with you. Not even the most staunch real estate bears.

52   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:11pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly.

And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices?

And how many people, here, agree with that prediction...

53   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:11pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

I didn't say I couldn't be wrong or you couldn't be wrong. I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong, you're not worth talking with because you can't even admit the way things really are.

54   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:12pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong

So, have you examined why you were wrong about silver, yet?

55   iwog   1500/1501 = 99% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:13pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices?

It really doesn't matter. I made some outstanding investments in silver and I published them real time for everyone to watch.

All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

56   Patrick   1803/1803 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:13pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

robertoaribas says

patrick please block dumasses account

How about using the ignore link?

Or -- become a premium user ( http://patrick.net/premium.php ) and then you can moderate your own threads, and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

57   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:14pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

Not quite. I've shown everyone my post from 2006 when I sold my house and bought gold (actually, starting from 2005). My track record, here, beats yours by a mile.

58   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:16pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    


users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

That's a cool feature, Patrick! I'll definitely sign up for the premium account!

59   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:19pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Done!

60   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:20pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

61   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   174/174 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 1:25pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

The Professor says

dunnross says

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

Where is the fun in that?

some people have mental problems (like that guy Darrel/war/liarwatch) so it's best to ignore them.

62   Kevin     2012 Nov 21, 1:29pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

dunnross says

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

Sure they can, you just can't see it.

63   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 1:30pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

> and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

But Patrick promised!

64   SubOink   52/52 = 100% civil   2012 Nov 21, 3:39pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait.

I am worse - I have lowered myself many times to his level of stubborn..."when you don't have a point, just repeat the old point again" -

but its kinda fun...about once or twice a year

65   dunnross     2012 Nov 21, 3:41pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

You don't work with any trends

And an 11 year bull market in PMs and a 6 year bear market in housing is not a trend, in your opinion? It is you who is not working with the trend, thinking that the trend has changed, just because we had 6 months of seasonal dead-cat bounce.

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