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Housing Market Rebound Fails To Charge Economy

By Bubbabeefcake   2013 Jan 24, 12:38pm   2,077 views   20 comments   watch (0)   quote      

The U.S. housing market is on the mend, but the so-called "missing piston" of the world's biggest economy doesn't have enough power to get the broader recovery firing on all cylinders any time soon.

http://m.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/housing-market-rebound-fails-recharge-economy-1C6859650

#housing

Comments 1-20 of 20     Last »

1   David9   1/1 = 100% civil   2013 Jan 24, 12:49pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Really ? omg.

2   Raw     2013 Jan 24, 1:11pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

First it was real estate prices still had another 65% to crash.
Then real estate was not recovering.
Now real estate was in another bubble.
2 years from now when prices take a 10% pullback after going up 100%, they will say "See? I told you"
Is there anyone not living in a World of Wacky?

3   JodyChunder     2013 Jan 24, 1:55pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Raw says

Is there anyone not living in a World of Wacky?

But it's a wacky world -- and wacky is being G-rated about it.

4   Bubbabeefcake     2013 Jan 24, 11:58pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

JodyChunder says

Raw says

Is there anyone not living in a World of Wacky?

But it's a wacky world -- and wacky is being G-rated about it.

What's going to be even more Wacky will be our rude awakening:
The IMF cuts global growth and finally admits to the EU recession existing. Also the EU recession is a good test to see if their central bank can spur growth with its old tricks. If they can't, then the fed reserve will be in the same kind of difficult situation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-23/imf-cuts-global-growth-sees-2013-european-recession

5   Mobi     2013 Jan 25, 12:35am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Base on the Japan's experiences, I think we will muddle through for the next 5-10 years bearing a Europe collapse. So, there will always be mixed economical news. I hope they do not pump the housing price too fast this time tho.

6   Mick Russom     2013 Jan 25, 1:01am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

The chinese buying real estate isnt going to help the USSA. Neither is the oligarchs buying houses in bulk.

The middle class is underwater and wages are stagnant and U6 is 15%.

7   Homeboy     2013 Jan 25, 3:53am  ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

I wonder what it would take for people to realize that trading houses back and forth, or securities, or tulips, or whatever, does not make a healthy economy. America used to produce things that had value.

8   Nobody     2013 Jan 25, 3:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

The housing market is turning around, because of the investment from China. Not definitely because the economy has turned around with inflation. So there will be more money for rich to hoard to increase the price of everyday necessities.

Either way I see it, the middle class is screwed.

I bet you Wong will make a comment in defense of Chinese investors.

9   inflection point     2013 Jan 25, 4:18am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

You cannot blame the Chinese (or anyone else) for trying to turn their dollars (whose value continues to decrease because of the FEDS expansion) to something physcial.

10   David Losh     2013 Jan 27, 9:58am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Mobi says

Base on the Japan's experiences, I think we will muddle through for the next 5-10 years

I'm tired of hearing about Japan, and ZIRP.

Japan, like Germany, is a confined homogeneous society, they were able to do what they want. They are huge economies, but focussed, and directed, a lot by government control.

We'll need something more, because our economy is constantly changing. We have societal diversification that creates demand. We have options that Japan, or Germany, don't have.

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery. We have tons of housing units, and the ability to add millions more at a moments notice. I don't see adding supply at this point being an advatage, but I don't see any reason for scarcity.

We should move on, and let the housing market flounder along the way it always used to before 1998.

11   Mick Russom     2013 Jan 27, 11:05am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

12   mell   63/63 = 100% civil   2013 Jan 27, 11:08am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Mick Russom says

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

Bingo - all that housing inflation does is shifting the multiplier of avg. yearly salary to house price upwards to even more unsustainable levels again. Here in the bay area 5-10 x is fairly normal.

13   Raw     2013 Jan 27, 11:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

mell says

Mick Russom says

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

Bingo - all that housing inflation does is shifting the multiplier of avg. yearly salary to house price upwards to even more unsustainable levels again. Here in the bay area 5-10 x is fairly normal.

You get what you pay for.
If you go to Nebraska, a teenager working for Taco Bell can buy a 5 bedroom home with a swimming pool.
But then, who wants to live where no one wants to live?

14   mell   63/63 = 100% civil   2013 Jan 27, 11:32am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Raw says

mell says

Mick Russom says

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

Bingo - all that housing inflation does is shifting the multiplier of avg. yearly salary to house price upwards to even more unsustainable levels again. Here in the bay area 5-10 x is fairly normal.

You get what you pay for.

If you go to Nebraska, a teenager working for Taco Bell can buy a 5 bedroom home with a swimming pool.

But then, who wants to live where no one wants to live?

Sure, but that's what salary adjustments are for. The salaries in the bay area are much higher than in Nebraska I would bet, but not high enough to keep the multiplier somewhere around 2-5x, where it should be. I bet in Nebraska it is closer to that (though I don't know).

15   iwog   1560/1561 = 99% civil   2013 Jan 27, 11:42am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

It's going to take a few years to ramp up construction jobs but they are coming. So far we have one single bull market year, and even if subdivisions were planned in 2012, they aren't ready to build yet.

16   Bubbabeefcake     2013 Jan 27, 10:57pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

chanakya4773 says

unemployment won't keep falling

...and the employment participation will keep falling
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

17   david1     2013 Jan 27, 11:19pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Billybigrig says

chanakya4773 says



unemployment won't keep falling


...and the employment participation will keep falling
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Move that graph out a bit more and you will see the LT trend....like back to 1970 when the baby boom entered the work force..

And now they are coming out of it...

18   Bubbabeefcake     2013 Jan 28, 12:23am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

david1 says

Billybigrig says

chanakya4773 says

unemployment won't keep falling

...and the employment participation will keep falling

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Move that graph out a bit more and you will see the LT trend....like back to 1970 when the baby boom entered the work force..

And now they are coming out of it...

Talk is cheap ! Show me the money...

19   FortWayne   453/457 = 99% civil   2013 Jan 28, 12:26am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Housing based economy wasn't real, so it does make sense that recovery in housing (whatever it means) won't really fix all the economic ills, which were often ignored during the bubble years.

20   David Losh     2013 Jan 28, 1:07am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

It's going to take a few years to ramp up construction jobs but they are coming.

Construction money moved into rental units, both vertical, and complex. It just makes sense that people will rent to deleverage from the mounting mortgage debt that is clogging the system.

Even if we do build more housing units to add to the glut of housing units already built between 1998 to 2008 it will be at a cost of construction price point.

I just don't see where construction of more crap shacks will do anything for the price of housing other than make new construction like buying a car; once you live in it it will lose half it's value.

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