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For the record, Iwog's prediction for 2014 will be dead wrong

By Iwag   2013 Sep 16, 2:06am   31,317 views   206 comments   watch (0)   quote      

This asshole thinks housing prices are going to soar in 2014 and inventory is going to go to nothing and i just wanted to post this thread to have a record, just in case that slimey weasel goes back and changes his prediction, to show what an utter asshole he is when housing prices tank and his wifes investment goes down the gutter in concord.

iwog says

We are going higher in 2014. Probably much higher. Most California counties look like San Diego. Not only are the price gains continuing but new inventory is NOT forthcoming.

now this assholes prediction cannot be changed or edited, and in 2014 we all get to laugh at how wrong he was just like he was in 2010 when he told people to buy homes or else they would be fucked and then prices tanked which other posters have brought up numerous times

the real discussion should be how badly will iwog try to lie to cover up his failed predictions

will iwog lie like a realtor?
will iwog lie like a banker?
will iwog lie just like he always lies?

discuss!!!!

#housing

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167   SubOink   52/52 = 100% civil   2013 Sep 23, 7:11am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Iwag says

anyone who bought homes after 1997 is getting so fucked

so...lets say its 1999...a family with 2 kids is in need for a place to live. 2 options...rent or buy. They decide to buy a CA 3bed/2bath 2500 sqft house in a decent neighborhood for $300k with a 30year fixed loan which they defy every time the interest is 1 point lower.

Explain how they are f-ed now in 2013...when the house is 800k and their mortgage is WAY below any amount that you could rent a doghouse for...HOW are they f-ed??

168   Heraclitusstudent   187/187 = 100% civil   2013 Sep 23, 7:16am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

Explain how they are f-ed now in 2013...when the house is 800k and their mortgage is WAY below any amount that you could rent a doghouse for...HOW are they f-ed??

They're not f-ed.
Anyone that buys from them at 800K - expecting a repeat - is F-ed.

169   Iwag     2013 Sep 23, 8:01am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

SubOink says

so...lets say its 1999...a family with 2 kids is in need for a place to live. 2 options...rent or buy. They decide to buy a CA 3bed/2bath 2500 sqft house in a decent neighborhood for $300k with a 30year fixed loan which they defy every time the interest is 1 point lower.

Fantasy scenarios never interest me

170   SubOink   52/52 = 100% civil   2013 Sep 23, 8:12am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Iwag says

SubOink says

so...lets say its 1999...a family with 2 kids is in need for a place to live. 2 options...rent or buy. They decide to buy a CA 3bed/2bath 2500 sqft house in a decent neighborhood for $300k with a 30year fixed loan which they defy every time the interest is 1 point lower.

Fantasy scenarios never interest me

...that's what I thought.

171   SubOink   52/52 = 100% civil   2013 Sep 23, 8:21am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Heraclitusstudent says

SubOink says

Explain how they are f-ed now in 2013...when the house is 800k and their mortgage is WAY below any amount that you could rent a doghouse for...HOW are they f-ed??

They're not f-ed.

Anyone that buys from them at 800K - expecting a repeat - is F-ed.

It depends...if you have no choice but rent or buy you will simply look at payment to payment comparison.
In my neighborhood, rents have skyrocket. Buying is cheaper even after this runup. Except...there is nothing but one house for sale at this moment.

If house vs rent = a wash ...then...buying makes more sense IF you love the house/neighborhood and have a pretty good feeling you will stay in that neighborhood for at least 10 years. If you know that there is a big chance that your job may move to NY, you're on the brink of a divorce, may be without a job soon, want to move around then buying makes no sense. In that case buying makes no sense no matter where prices are. Some people enjoy the oakwood furnished apartment lifestyle. Full independence. Do what you want, no liability. BUT...simply speaking from a "whats a smarter financial move" its certainly not the winner. But who cares...life costs money. You can decide how you spend it. I have friends that live by that...invest in stocks and waste in rent because if the freedom of liability. But neither of them think renting is smarter than buying. It's a lifestyle choice in their case.

172   Bigsby     2013 Sep 23, 12:38pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

And yet you use CA and these 800k type houses for your examples...

173   kmo722     2013 Sep 23, 12:45pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

he's already wrong.. forget about 2014..

174   Iwag     2013 Sep 24, 6:16am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (3)   quote    

bay area home prices dropped year over year in august from 2012 to 2013 and that was with lower inventory and better mortgage rates

some liar is about to get exposed

175   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2013 Sep 24, 6:25am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (3)   quote    

Iwag says

bay area home prices dropped year over year in august from 2012 to 2013 and that was with lower inventory and better mortgage rates

some liar is about to get exposed

Oh really?? Where did you get this particular bit of genius?

176   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 1:44am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

concord inventory up 30% year over year, FACT
concord sales down 20% year over year, FACT

177   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 1:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

Iwag says

concord inventory up 30% year over year, FACT

concord sales down 20% year over year, FACT

178   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 1:58am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

Iwog, what's your take on this?

You're kidding right??

Why are you talking to a ridiculous troll?

It's still friggin March and prices are already doing exactly what I predicted they would do. Wait til June.

179   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:02am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

Iwog. That's not sales or inventory. You are not addressing sales or inventory.

1. I've never tied sales to anything I've ever said or predicted.
2. I never predicted falling inventory for Concord. I did say that inventory had not yet bottomed in many California markets (BEFORE they bottomed which means it was a prediction) and I was absolutely right.

180   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:06am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

the chicken is dancing...

So troll #1 lies and troll #2 pretends he's right?

Are you people for real?

181   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:12am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

it makes me happy to see iwog destroy what little credibility he has left

now, lets wait for iwog to bring out all of his alt accounts to viciously defend him...

bigsby, tatupupu, strategist, cloud13 in 3.... 2.... 1......

182   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:13am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

iwog says

jojo says

the chicken is dancing...

So troll #1 lies and troll #2 pretends he's right?

Are you people for real?

anyone who disagrees with anything you say you classify as a troll.

No, people who lie about me not answering questions and people who confirm people lying about me not answering questions are trolls.

Do you disagree?

183   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:17am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Iwog - "We are going higher in 2014. Probably much higher. Most California counties look like San Diego. Not only are the price gains continuing but new inventory is NOT forthcoming."

San Diego inventory: up 27% year over year
San Diego median sold price FLAT since july 2013

184   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:18am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

Like this?

Why are you changing the subject?

I posted a graph showing prices headed up in Concord. So?

I asked you a question. Do you disagree?

185   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:19am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

"I posted a graph showing prices headed up in Concord."

lol hahahaha

this liar can't even contain his lies when everyone is looking.

186   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:22am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

Call it Crazy says

Iwog's response is that he posts a chart that doesn't reflect neither of those questions of inventory or number of sales, but he posts a chart of Listing $/sq. ft.

You can't make this shit up people......

So you're not going to answer my question?

I answered both of YOUR questions and posted the chart.

Again......do you think that a person lying about responses is a troll?

Yes or no.

187   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:22am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

can we finally all just admit iwog is a classless troll?

the guy makes a grand prediction that inventory is going lower and prices skyrocketing in California

then when that doesnt happen in the market where he's heavily invested in, we're talking about his wifes life savings here, he dances and dances, and then post a graph of San Francisco (a market where he has ZERO investment) and says 'i was only talking about some markets in california'

what a lying asshole

188   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:27am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

No answer huh jojo?

Figures.

189   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:32am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

he also posted listing prices not actual sold prices

i wonder why

190   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:39am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

Call it Crazy says

The question was Inventory and Total Sales, not Prices...

YOU changed it... which didn't reflect jojo's question...

1. I answered both questions.
2. I posted a chart of concord because the moron brought up Concord.

Too complicated for you?

191   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:40am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

Iwag says

he also posted listing prices not actual sold prices

i wonder why

maybe its a medical condition.

Actual sold prices are where we've been. Asking prices are where we're going. If you're looking to future market action, you have to look at asking prices.

Sold prices were flat through Winter which is extremely abnormal considering prices usually drop 5% or so during the winter.

192   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:43am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

jojo says

iwog says

No answer huh jojo?

jojo says

Iwog. That's not sales or inventory. You are not addressing sales or inventory.

Right......do you need me to retype the question a third time?

I'll retype my answers a second time.

1. Sales are totally irrelevant and nothing that has ever been part of any of my predictions. Challenging me on them is retarded.
2. I never predicted a bottoming of inventory in Concord, however I did say that inventory was still declining in much of California.

So while I remain reasonable and answer pretty much everything, you're going to do what exactly? Keep running?

193   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:47am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

"I never predicted a bottoming of inventory in Concord, however I did say that inventory was still declining in much of California"

listen to this asshole

now he wasn't talking about the real estate market where he's 100% invested in, he's talking about 'other markets' where he has no financial ties at all

lol

194   Han     2014 Mar 24, 2:49am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

No answer huh jojo?

Figures.

Iwog, despite the fact that you provide thoughtful analysis and have been correct about many facets of California real estate, right now what you are doing is giving the trolls more ammunition - what they want is for you to get agitated (which may or may not have occurred), and keep replying and adding to this thread (which has certainly occurred).

Iwag's sole purpose is to bait you (and others on this forum), so every time you reply to his comments you are pretty much getting tooled.

But, if that's what you and SubOink and others want, then so be it - please enjoy :-)

By the way, I do not consider CiC or Jojo trolls...they may not agree with you, but I do not believe they are trolls.

195   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:49am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (3)   quote    

jojo says

iwog says

Actual sold prices are where we've been. Asking prices are where we're going.

Anyone can ask for any price. If it fails to sell it is meaningless.

I've watched these charts for years now. A jump in asking prices almost always precedes a jump in selling prices.

If yo don't know this, it's clear you don't have the experience I do.

196   wave9x   1/1 = 100% civil   2014 Mar 24, 2:51am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Iwag says

bay area home prices dropped year over year in august from 2012 to 2013 and that was with lower inventory and better mortgage rates

some liar is about to get exposed

Since you used Concord as your example, here are stats for Concord...
8/12 median sale $/sqft $198
8/12 median sale $290k

8/13 $/sqft $273 (38% YoY increase)
8/13 median sale $404k (39% YoY increase)

197   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 2:55am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

i never said concord in THAT post that you referenced. is that what you do iwog? take post out of context and then lie about their conclusions?

198   exfatguy   1/1 = 100% civil   2014 Mar 24, 3:01am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Whether iwog is correct because he's a genius or just because he's guessed right, the fact is, he's right. Prices aren't ever going to go down. The United States housing market is global now, and there are a billion or more people in this world that can and will pay all-cash for any house regardless of location and regardless of condition.

My daughter just sold her Barbie dollhouse on Ebay. She was asking $10.00, and after a short bidding war it sold for $375,000 to an investor in China that immediately relisted it for double.

199   RentingForHalfTheCost     2014 Mar 24, 3:21am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

jojo says

Where a new listing might have attracted 10 or 12 offers last spring, 3 or 4 are coming in now; where 3 or 4 offers would have arrived, the seller is getting 1.

Interesting... And this from Redfin:

According to Redfin Los Angeles agent Eric Tan, “This time last year, sellers could name their price and still get 20 to 30 offers. This year, even homes that are priced competitively are only seeing two to three offers come in, often at or below list price. Pricing appropriately is crucial.”

God is currently ignoring the need of Realtors to feed their families. After years and years of making sure they had the best, he is finally now turning his back. See what happens when you get greedy. Regular almonds wasn't enough, you had to go organic. Regular bread wasn't enough, you had to push for wheat germ free. Regular yogurt wasn't enough, you had to switch to Greek non-fat. Well now you need to switch back and actually suck it up and jump into the real work force. You know, the one where you actually have to contribute to society somehow. Not just get a cut of a simple sale event. God is not your friend anymore.

200   wave9x   1/1 = 100% civil   2014 Mar 24, 3:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Iwag says

bay area home prices dropped year over year in august from 2012 to 2013 and that was with lower inventory and better mortgage rates

some liar is about to get exposed

Stats for the entire Bay Area:

8/12 median sale $410k
8/13 median sale $540k (31.7% YoY increase)

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2013/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay130913.aspx

Prices way up in every single county.

201   Iwag     2014 Mar 24, 4:06am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

i meant month over month

202   lattitude     2014 Mar 24, 4:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

That Paragon link's author retracted his view that the market was slowing down in the March report (and now says the opposite is true).

203   lattitude     2014 Mar 24, 4:54am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

http://www.paragon-re.com/03_14_SF_Home_Market_Heats_Up_Again

"We recently speculated on tentative signs that suggested a further market normalization, but now the indicators are pointing in a different direction. The inventory of homes available to purchase on any given day is even lower than before last year's furious market; buyer demand has emerged from its midwinter hibernation like a hungry bear; and prices are under increasing pressure once again."

204   SubOink   52/52 = 100% civil   2014 Mar 24, 5:10am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Iwag says

For the record, Iwog's prediction for 2014 will be dead wrong

Not sure where you have been ...so far the only one who's predictions have turned out completely wrong are yours - LOL

Don't be mad!

205   iwog   1516/1517 = 99% civil   2014 Mar 24, 5:12am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

jojo says

lattitude says

That Paragon link's author retracted his view that the market was slowing down in the March report (and now says the opposite is true).

Do you have a link?

You've got a lot to learn.

206   JasonM     2015 Aug 29, 11:35am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Iwag says

This asshole thinks housing prices are going to soar in 2014 and inventory is going to go to nothing and i just wanted to post this thread to have a record, just in case that slimey weasel goes back and changes his prediction, to show what an utter asshole he is when housing prices tank and his wifes investment goes down the gutter in concord.

Wow, Iwog briefly had his own personal troll because he predicted prices would rise. What was wrong with this place?

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