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Ask journalism how much it got for its soul.

By ttsmyf   2013 Oct 18, 5:11am   22 links   77,377 views   20 comments   watch (1)   quote      

"The Public Be Suckered" is (1) these histories,
and (2) keeping them out of sight.
(See latest magnitudes, and
earlier extremes, in table at end.)


SUMMARY
This page shows multiple track records of collective economic foolhardiness by the USA people. These pasts are nearly never shown to the people by the powers that be. This allows ignorance instead of learning, and it enables further fooling of the people.

First two charts Stocks and homes are assets priced in US$ -- so, their soundly shown price histories are inflation-adjusted ("real"). But such are seldom seen, because: Well apparent therein are our nation's serial, massive mispricings. Recently and unprecedentedly, both have been contemporaneously far above extrapolated history.

Third chart Contemporary with the preceding have been (1) the downward drift of the personal saving rate for three decades (11%→3%), and (2) the accompanying doubling, over two decades, of the household debt/income ratio after 25 years in the narrow range 0.51 - 0.60. "More consumption now!!"

Fourth chart The preceding two traces of annual data each broke trend after 2007, coinciding with a huge jump in U.S. governments' debt, shown here. "Recent debt jump is 2/3 of that for World War II".


Asset price histories that look like cocaine intoxications:


(And a recent Dow day is here.)

Longtime overconsuming:

Recent debt jump is 2/3 of that for World War II:

http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
http://www.showrealhist.com/debtGDP_whys.html
usa2true AT posteo.de

The MEDIA KNOW HOW:
Wall St. Journal
NY Times 8/2006


The Public Be Suckered, Magnitudes (Data are avgs for calendar yr/qtr/mo shown)
Ought
Ought Recent To Have
Latest To Be* Change Extreme Been* Change
Real 67.7 54 20% drop 100 54 46% drop
Homes 2014Q1 2006Q1
price
Real 110.2 51 54% drop 100 40 60% drop
Dow 6/2016 1/2000
price
Personal 4.3% 11% 2.5x rise 3% 11% Quadrup-
Saving 2014 2007 ling
Debt/ 0.91 0.56 38% drop 1.13 0.56 50% drop
Income 2014 2009
Debt/ 1.0 0.6 40% drop 1.0 0.6 40% drop
GDP 2014 2014
was 0.6 0.6 NONE!
in 2007
*From extra-
polated histories
(First 2 URLs above)

OBSERVATION Of the 11 data in the table, only one equalled its target,
or was even close: federal Debt/GDP = 0.6 in 2007. Now it is 1.0, and
needing a 40% drop to reach 0.6 target. Monumental USA penalty, earned!
Counsel: Shiller says SAVE

Comments 1-20 of 20     Last »

1   Entitlemented   200/200 = 100% civil   2014 Jan 15, 6:36am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Wow, Montesquieu says the same thing in the book written years ago.

Smart Guy!

2   tatupu70     2014 Jan 15, 7:06am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Where in the heck do you get the real Dow "should" be at 49?? What extrapolated history are you basing that on?

And I would strongly argue that home prices rise correlate much better with real income instead of inflation. So, your extrapolated history is wrong, IMO.

3   ttsmyf     2014 Jan 15, 7:53am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

49 is from curve shown here
http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
origin of curve herein
http://www.showrealhist.com/
Note that 1.64%/yr is just long term average of bubbles-dominated past, NOT necessarily anything 'natural'. I use it to 'estimate' future.

See BOOM TIMES note in NYT chart here
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.html
for my real homes reckoning. Idea is (same!) home prices just follow CPI-U in recent decades, because we are NOT running out of land (Shiller) -- EXCEPT FOR BUBBLES!

4   ttsmyf     2014 Jan 17, 4:25am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Hello Entitlemented,
Thank you very much for your brief Comment #1 here.
http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

I am supposing that your Montesquieu reference is to this summary point.
"Montesquieu's philosophy of history minimized the role of individual persons and events. He expounded the view in ... that each historical event was driven by a principal movement ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montesquieu
And I further suppose that my "The Public Be Suckered" corresponds to M's "a principal movement".

This status quo sure is profoundly UGLY, especially by Red, White & Blue standards. How can we end "The Public Be Suckered"???

5   ttsmyf     2014 Jan 17, 6:50am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Entitlemented says

Wow, Montesquieu says the same thing in the book written years ago.

Smart Guy!

My reply to #1 is #4.

6   ttsmyf     2014 Jan 17, 6:52am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tatupu70 says

Where in the heck do you get the real Dow "should" be at 49?? What extrapolated history are you basing that on?

And I would strongly argue that home prices rise correlate much better with real income instead of inflation. So, your extrapolated history is wrong, IMO.

My reply to #2 is #3.

7   ttsmyf     2014 Mar 1, 9:30am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Tilt,
Thank you, seems credible, did not follow 100 percent. I try to get this content
http://www.showrealhist.com/RHandRD.html
apparent to the people, thinking it a cure for gross irrationality, which I reckon our basic flaw. I know how to be ignored! Be glad to hear any ideas for being effective ...

8   ttsmyf     2014 Mar 2, 5:49am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

For convenience, dates added to table at end.

9   ttsmyf     2014 Mar 14, 8:40am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

All the histories now updated thru 2013, at least.

10   ttsmyf     2014 Apr 8, 5:02am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SUMMARY section added at beginning.

11   Ormondroyd     2014 Apr 12, 3:23am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Semms sad but true to me. Now that everyone and his brother has been forced into a 401(k) for his retirement the dividend yield on the broad market has shrunk to just about the inflation rate. The excuse used to be that dividends were taxed twice, but now that dividends are taxed less than previuosly the payout remains anemic. So the stock market becomes a Ponzi scheme where your only real gain is if others are willing to pay more for your shares than you did. (The dividend yield being zero after inflation) Sucker sure seems like the appropriate term to me.

12   ttsmyf     2014 Apr 12, 7:12am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ormondroyd says

Semms sad but true to me. Now that everyone and his brother has been forced into a 401(k) for his retirement the dividend yield on the broad market has shrunk to just about the inflation rate. The excuse used to be that dividends were taxed twice, but now that dividends are taxed less than previuosly the payout remains anemic. So the stock market becomes a Ponzi scheme where your only real gain is if others are willing to pay more for your shares than you did. (The dividend yield being zero after inflation) Sucker sure seems like the appropriate term to me.

I reckon that deceptionS by omission dominate, so let's get these compelling, historical charts in everyone's face, all the time! I suppose that the big con will expire if the truth is everywhere! Take a look at the bottom of this page:
http://www.showrealhist.com

13   ttsmyf     2014 Jun 29, 4:33am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

See new “FAULT” shown for latest chart data.
For examples:

14   Blurtman   425/425 = 100% civil   2014 Jun 29, 5:00am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Bullish!

15   Len     2014 Jul 2, 6:29am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

If we want to go beyond charts there is the book The Creature From Jekyll Island by G Edward Griffin. Don't be mislead by the clumsy title, this book will change the way you think about money and government policy incredibly.

16   ttsmyf     2014 Jul 2, 7:31am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Len,
I saw this when it was published 3/30/1999.

I said to myself “Wow! Boy, people who hold stocks should be seeing this!”.
I am still saying the same thing, but now also for homes.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.html

I’ll try to get a look at your book, thanks.

Today’s Dow close is here:
http://www.showrealhist.com/recDJIAtoRD.html

17   ttsmyf     2014 Aug 10, 5:22am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Recent EXTREMES added to table at end.

18   Gerry Hiles     2014 Sep 1, 12:04pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I am impressed.

Your charts tally with my more informal understandings.

BTW I found your site via a link in Zero Hedge, which I follow from Australia, where much the same applies as the US and other "Western" countries.

19   ttsmyf     2014 Sep 2, 1:34am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Gerry Hiles says

I am impressed.

Your charts tally with my more informal understandings.

BTW I found your site via a link in Zero Hedge, which I follow from Australia, where much the same applies as the US and other "Western" countries.

Thank you GH. It is certainly discouraging that the same deceptions go on elsewhere -- we need the charts in everybody's face!

Speaking of 'elsewhere', I have this reasonable-to-me FOREIGN POLICY HYPOTHESIS, of massive consequence.
Putin owns big leverage over Obama ... by means of the following.

These compelling histories are kept rarely seen by the USA people, severely deceiving them.
"The Public Be Suckered"
http://patrick.net/?p=1223928

AND: Putin has the option to speak out and end these deceptions by omission!

20   ttsmyf     2014 Sep 6, 6:07am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Robert Shiller: “So save more is the most important thing. Even in cash.” (bottom of page)

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