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Huh?


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2005 Oct 18, 8:59am   70,436 views  1,273 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  


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1   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 9:07am  

So it is October. We are we seeing? What are we not seeing. What do they mean?

2   surfer-x   2005 Oct 18, 9:12am  

Huh?

Huh?

3   KurtS   2005 Oct 18, 9:14am  

We are we seeing?

Unless I just have bear-tinted glasses*, I'm seeing this Oct:
1. Far more acceptance in the media that a "bubble" may exist.
2. The noise from NAR sounds more desperate
3. Realtors sound more desperate
4. More inventory, with marginal price reduction
5. Little concern from investors in "unbustable" markets
6. Despite the confidence of the NAHB, their stocks are taking a dump.
what else?

*I have no idea what that means.

4   surfer-x   2005 Oct 18, 9:22am  

I'm going with Peter P, first off the dude's got stones (no, jack not "those" stones") and second, it's not over till the fat lady sings. 13 more days

5   SQT15   2005 Oct 18, 9:29am  

I think history will vindicate Peter P.

6   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 9:31am  

I think history will vindicate Peter P.

Hey, I thought we are all in together. :)

7   KurtS   2005 Oct 18, 9:32am  

Was he right? Was he wrong? Or is it the same old story? It seems that either side could make a very strong case for itself right now.

For the record, what did he predict again?

I do see certain aspects of RE taking a beating already.

8   Randy H   2005 Oct 18, 9:50am  

I'm going with Peter P too. And I'm not even going to hold him to the fabled 10-sigma event; I'll settle for a 4-6 sigma one, (even in a non-zero-sum enviro).

I'm too weak to make predictions of my own. I prefer to build derivative products on others' predictions.

9   SQT15   2005 Oct 18, 9:51am  

Hey, I thought we are all in together.

I'm afraid you've become the designated spokesperson for the group.

Translation

You'll be sold out if it all goes wrong. (Just kidding....really)

10   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 10:00am  

I’m too weak to make predictions of my own. I prefer to build derivative products on others’ predictions.

You are not weak, just smart. :)

Let me further narrow down the date to this weekend: Friday or Monday.

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

11   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 10:09am  

I want to be watching CNBC when it happens, you sly Fannie put buying dawg

Funny thing is that FNM has been going UP past few days when the HBs were hammered. Interesting...

12   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 10:14am  

Now you are beginning to sound like Prat.

Maybe I am prat. ;)

Nah, my golf game is not half as good as his.

13   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 10:15am  

Yes, I’ve noticed. Probably just a dead cat bounce, but who knows? My IMH short had a bounce, but fell pretty hard today. Still haven’t shorted any builders, as the downtrend has been too relentless for a bounce.

The "bounce" has been pretty steady over the past few days on bad news though.

14   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 10:23am  

Not too much volume, though. If I was smart enough to have shorted it, I would still be holding on - until a big volume washout in the general market anyway.

I am planning to add more puts. I believe this pullback will end soon and the secular downtrend will resume.

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

15   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 10:26am  

Wayne, if the market falls hard on Friday, do you think we should expect a pullback on Sunday night (Globex S&P)? Or do you think it will fall off the bottom?

16   Randy H   2005 Oct 18, 10:50am  

off-topic:

is the RSS feed for this site working? I'm getting terrible results in both Feedreader and Googlereader.

17   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 11:03am  

Thanks Wayne.

I am considering a bunch of October puts that expire this Saturday. In case they swing in-the-money, I am not sure if it is better to execise them into short positions or simply roll them into November options.

18   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 11:05am  

is the RSS feed for this site working? I’m getting terrible results in both Feedreader and Googlereader.

Randy, maybe Feedreader and Googlereader are going "huh?".

19   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 11:14am  

A bewitching hour or day? a black Friday and a dark Monday to follow?

It is not a "Triple Witching Friday" though.

20   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 11:23am  

I do recall October 1987 was rather bad, but wasn’t that pre–we-can-stop-it when-we want-to-trading. Didn’t it drop 500 points that day?

I think the market has a 5%/10%/15% circuit breaker, right?

21   Jamie   2005 Oct 18, 11:32am  

"Huh"

Jack, you must like this word because of its symmetry, its minimalism, its palindrome-ness, its multiple layers of meaning depending on the way it is used and how it is spoken. As a word, it's like a post-modern work of art.

22   Jamie   2005 Oct 18, 11:34am  

"I just have bear-tinted glasses"

LOL!

23   Jamie   2005 Oct 18, 11:38am  

"Hey, I thought we are all in together."

I will stand before the firing squad with you, Peter. I am quite sure we'll be vindicated...in fact, I would bet there will be no firing squad, because the bulls will be too busy pawning their guns so they can rent those luxury Uhauls straight out of Cali.

24   Zephyr   2005 Oct 18, 12:00pm  

You are playing with fire when you bet on Fannie Mae.

It bounced back as I guessed it would. However, I was unwilling to bet on that, because there is far too much that cannot be known by us. And far too much that is known by some. You are taking a huge risk making any bet with such a big information disadvantage.

25   Zephyr   2005 Oct 18, 12:07pm  

BTW, Dead cats don't bounce this well.

26   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 12:08pm  

You are playing with fire when you bet on Fannie Mae.

It bounced back as I guessed it would. However, I was unwilling to bet on that, because there is far too much that cannot be known by us. And far too much that is known by some. You are taking a huge risk making any bet with such a big information disadvantage.

I know. This is why I will strictly control my risks using limited-loss strategies. Fire? Yes, I will probably burn my fish too. ;)

27   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 12:09pm  

BTW, Dead cats don’t bounce this well.

I agree. It is quite probable that the market is seeing bad news as evidence of corruption cleansing.

28   Zephyr   2005 Oct 18, 12:13pm  

FNM has bounced twice now. It's been about 20 days since the big drop... with a steady and stable climb from the second bottom.

29   Peter P   2005 Oct 18, 12:19pm  

FNM has bounced twice now. It’s been about 20 days since the big drop… with a steady and stable climb from the second bottom.

Yes indeed. More importantly, it has been going up against the broad market. This does indicate some strength...

30   Zephyr   2005 Oct 18, 12:20pm  

Better to burn your fish, rather than your cash. Good luck.

31   Randy H   2005 Oct 18, 1:16pm  

I think the market has a 5%/10%/15% circuit breaker, right?

Circuit breakers and trading collars:

If ( dow.level()

32   Randy H   2005 Oct 18, 1:17pm  

well shit, and I put so much work into the code. oh well, figures.

34   Jamie   2005 Oct 18, 2:25pm  

Re: “Huh?”

Jack, I wonder how long we can keep discussing the word "huh?" Imagine it--us staying on topic...completely on topic!

Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the uses of the word "huh" from urbandictionary.com:
http://tinyurl.com/bc3cr

(PS I had nothing to do with the lewdness of the first example)

35   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 18, 2:41pm  

Hmmm...will there be an oktoberfukt?
Heads "no", tails "yes". I flipped a nick & it came up Monticello.
(***not investment advice***)

A fund manager, John Hussman (pronounced "Huh-ssman", by the way :) ) has some commentary regarding current market environment. The "4%" comment near the bottom is particularly interesting:

"As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks continued to be characterized by unusually unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action. Note that this is a discrete change from recent weeks. Until and unless market action improves enough, we have to infer that investors have moved to a more skittish view of risk. At present, we have very low risk premiums, increasing risk aversion, and rising interest rates. This is a really bad combination. That's not to forecast a crash (though current conditions match only the 4% of market history that contains most significant crashes on record) or even the necessity of a market decline here. But very emphatically, this is not an environment in which we are willing to take a significant exposure to market risk."

Link:
http://tinyurl.com/8d8bp

36   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 18, 2:53pm  

Damn Jack, got no nickels? Living off the HELOC, HUH?
:)

37   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 18, 2:54pm  

:) = :) ?

38   Jamie   2005 Oct 18, 2:56pm  

"Is that is why Peter P made this thread. To “park” all the misfits in?"

Maybe it's a social experiment, to see just how far wrong we can go with a topic so vague...

39   Jamie   2005 Oct 18, 2:59pm  

"http://tinyurl.com/8d8bp"

Huh. (couldn't resist) Interesting article, SJ Jim, thanks for posting. I think we should have a thread titled "Octoberfukt."

40   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 18, 3:02pm  

...only if "it" happens, I say. Until then, "huh" will due for now, to be followed by "hmmm" around this time next week.

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