patrick.net

The original post: "Wait out the Bay Area market a few more years? . . . . Should we buy some crap hole under $400,000 in the area, or move to a place where we could have a nice home for $200,000?"

Then later the same day: "My business, and long built stellar reputation in my field is unfortunately here in the Bay Area. The Bay Area is a crap hole where everything is priced way to high, but I can't leave my job, and we need the medical with two kids."

So hrhjuliet seems to be saying moving isn't an option, but Bay Area happiness is out of reach (crap hole, prices too high, etc.). Sounds like a Catch-22 where hrhjuliet should be asking more questions of him/her-self than opinions from others.

Where in the Bay Area must you live where you can only buy a "crap hole" for 400k?

I just don't get it, there are plenty of nice areas one could buy a perfectly nice house for less than 400k.

edvard2 says

I sort of find stuff like that funny. The Bay Area is supposed to welcome people of different types and backgrounds and claims to be open-minded. Yet over and over again I read stories of people from here or other large metros moving to places like Raleigh and moving back " because of the rednecks".

I'm just trying to remember their reason for coming back, and 'Rednecks' is a generalization. It may be just more like 'lack of culture', 'small town feeling', 'distance from large metro area' ... combined with 'lower wages' and 'harder to find work'.

sheltielover1 says

Even Warren Buffett is buying homes now -

http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2012/02/29/buffett-id-buy-up-couple-hundred-thousand-homes#.T0679EH1Cqo.email

Funny, I read the article with care this time. Buffet is not saying he IS buying homes now. Here is exactly what he said.

"Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" recently that he'd "buy up a couple hundred thousand" single-family homes if it was practical. "

Then he goes on to say he believes the market is good for buying. Then why the "if it was practical" catch at the end of the sentence above. Come on guys, figure this crap out. Buffett is deep into BAC! 5 billion. Even if he thinks housing is screwed the shareholders in Berkshire Hathaway would have his head if he said anything different that what was in the article. BAC has some of the highest distressed homes on their books. One bad word from Buffett about housing and no gov't/fed intervention would stop the mass selling. Figure out people motives. They are normally not yours.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/buffett-to-invest-5-billion-in-bank-of-america/

Jimbo in SF says

Rednecks in Raleigh

Were they High-Tech Rednecks?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Force realtors back into the workforce and we will be much healthier IMHO. Our unemployment rate would rise

Isn't there a war in Afganistan that needs personell?

Are your kids in public or private school? and will you keep them in that? are you moving older kids? those questions could cost you more emotionally and monetarily than the amount you are pondering for housing. If your kids are older and doing well with a network of good friends you should not move rent buy whatever, prices might not even change for 10 years who knows, if your kids are babies up to first grade max much easier to move and make new foundations. I think you will find paying or saving $100,000-200,000 dollars in the next ten years of your life will mean less that the people around you and the foundation of your kids. Unless you decide to obsess on the money. If you think something works financially for your present and future and you will be happy do it. If you think it might not work financially and emotionally in present in future, don't. No one has a crystal ball and can say the stock market is going up or down or housing is going up or down. Sometimes its easier to focus on not making a bad decision than focusing on making a perfect decision. Pulling the trigger is hard. Focus on making a decision better than most and you will be fine in my opinion. Just try and factor in the human costs and if you move maybe vacation there for a month first will be invaluable.

wthrfrk80 says

Were they High-Tech Rednecks?

LOL! Good one.... No, actually I've been to Raleigh a few times and have friends that live there. If anything, I'd call Raleigh " New Jersey South" because seriously half the city was full of people from the east coast along with quite a few Californians.

But adding to this a bit further, time and again I've encountered people who made the trek to places like raleigh from expensive metros with a mission to buy a "cheap" house. It never crosses their minds that they also should consider the areas they're moving to and what its like there. Its more than just "a house". Its also about the area's culture, history, weather, geographic and natural characteristics, economy, industries, arts and music, food, and so on and so on. I find that many who move with the primary goal of just buying a house in these places wind up being disappointed because in reality they really liked wherever they came from but moved just because they couldn't afford it and at the same time somehow almost expect where they move to be at least somewhat similar to where they came from. For example a common complaint I used to see on some of the relocation forums were people from NY in Raleigh or Austin whining that there were no Bagel shops, or people from Chicago would complain about there not being any good pizza.... etc etc.

Personally I have no problem moving somewhere different. I can live just about anywhere and that probably comes from me having grown up in a very rural conservative area. I consider myself to be a liberal and so is my family and somehow things were always fine for us where we lived. It was a huge adjustment moving to Metro California. By far its a lot more difficult living here than anywhere else I've lived. So if I can live in those 2 opposite extremes I can live anywhere. ( with the exception of Maybe Ohio)

I can imagine that if I grew up in the Bay Area it would be real culture shock to move anywhere else. I'm a Rust Belt Boy that moved to Santa Rosa (North Bay) for three months for an ill-fated job. I couldn't get over the combination of sticker shock and culture shock.

Still, I love to take vacations in coastal CA. It's a great place to visit, especially during the gloomy upstate NY winters. It's just not a place I want to live permanently.

Realtors Are Liars says

What a disaster upstate is.

Definitely.

Corning is a little better thanks to Corning, Inc.

Gas Fracking might bring in some $ and jobs, but NY state has a temporary ban on the practice pending further environmental study.

hrhjuliet says

The house is a good deal in the Bay Area, but a good deal here means it's still a crap hole.

Do you really want Patnet to green light you should buy a 400K crap hole?
A crap hole is a crap hole at any price.

RE can and will go any direction it damn well pleases. But mostly based on the economic policies of the Commander in Chief.
If you see a positive out look for the economy, then by all means you should buy. Though I would try to get somewhere as close as to the house of my dreams as possible. Because you may be forced to make provisions to stay there a while. Though you already seem like someone that would "Strategic Default" if the house became only worth 300K by the year's end.

You should buy not only the house you can afford, but the house you can live with.

edvard2 says

I sort of find stuff like that funny. The Bay Area is supposed to welcome people of different types and backgrounds and claims to be open-minded. Yet over and over again I read stories of people from here or other large metros moving to places like Raleigh and moving back " because of the rednecks".

A Southern Man don't need 'em around anyhow.

wthrfrk80 says

Why would a smart guy like Buffutt buy an investment that pays negative dividends (i.e. property taxes, insurance, and maintainence)?

He's all about...

"This is what I would do, if I were YOU"

He's full opinions but he doesn't have any tips or give up his secrets.
He would do America a greater service, by teaching the poor his stock pick tips, than telling rich people they should pay more taxes than he's willing to pay.

Realtors Are Liars says

And the poor deluded souls who saw a little bit of economic hope during the bubble actually believed it was realistic and permanent. Now prices are cratering upstate. At least the Hudson valley north to plattsburgh and east to VT.

Here in the Southern Tier we didn't have a housing bubble. Real estate here is too depressed for that. It's part of the Rust Belt, like Binghamton, Syracuse, Buffalo, and Rochester. Not sure about the RE market elsewhere in the state.

It is purely a personal decision. No investment such as buying a house is financial decision, it is an emotional decision.

Given the current condition, rent vs buy situation. it is same for me.

With Owner club, u get:
1. more time with kids since I dont have to look for another best rent deal every year.
2. no more packing stuff that u dont want to have it in first place
3. once in a while worry about interest rate, zillow zestimate of your house
4. an equity that does build over time. Hopefully useful in retirement
5. more time spent on internet reading about home prices
6. being in home prices are going up club

With Renters club, u get:
1. no worry about home price going down pbm
2. a place you dont like necessarily as you hop from one place to other
3. no prop.tax, insurance, etc and no tax break
4. worry about going up rent

Both sides have good & bad. What you weigh is purely personal.
If you find a place you & your family love to spend next 7 years, go for it, it is a relatively good time. We did!

FunTime says

I clicked on one of your links yesterday and found that the site had that entrapment feature where the back button didn't work in my browser. I double clicked. I triple clicked. Nothing. Powerful stuff. I recommend eliminating that dynamic of the site.

Huh? it's just a basic wordpress.com blog - nothing fancy. I couldn't recreate the problem. Can you give me a little more info? It's certainly not something that is supposed to happen. Thanks!

rajeevam says

With Renters club, u get:
1. no worry about home price going down pbm
2. a place you dont like necessarily as you hop from one place to other
3. no prop.tax, insurance, etc and no tax break
4. worry about going up rent

I've been a renter in the BA for almost 15 years now. I have loved each of my rentals, they were awesome. Loved where they were, the type of accommodations, and the ability to get anything fixed asap with no out of pocket from me.

I have also never had a landlord do a rent adjustment on me. I moved only because I wanted a change and glad I did every time. Instead of looking at it like a choir, it was a great time to do spring cleaning and assess why I was holding onto some junk. :)

You missed the single biggest benefit of renting. Not being locked into a particular job and city. The world is huge, and who knows where the opportunities will take you. Mine have taken me to Canada, Switzerland, Brasil, etc. and if I had been an owner I would have had to turn each of them down. Instead I just stop renting, put stuff in storage and go for it.

Realtors Are Liars says

mmmm... ehhh... I'm a bit skeptical of that. I know for a fact Syracuse inflated by over 120% and it's still 110% overpriced.

I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing a sharp rise in prices with subsequent crash in Syracuse. At least not according to Zillow.com and city-data.com. That doesn't mean prices couldn't fall. But it doesn't "look like" a classic bubble to me.

(1) Don't buy and put the money (down payment, monthly payments minus tax benefit, etc. into an intermediate (10 year) bond fund and wait for the bottom

(2) Meanwhile check out non-coastal Oregon and/or Washington state, or Austin TX, or the outlying areas of LA that are already hooked into the LA MetroLink or soon will be.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You missed the single biggest benefit of renting. Not being locked into a particular job and city. The world is huge, and who knows where the opportunities will take you. Mine have taken me to Canada, Switzerland, Brasil, etc. and if I had been an owner I would have had to turn each of them down. Instead I just stop renting, put stuff in storage and go for it.

Agree. Flexibility is very important in this rapidly-changing world. The term "job security" is now a punch-line.

rajeevam says

With Owner club, u get:
1. more time with kids since I dont have to look for another best rent deal every year.
2. no more packing stuff that u dont want to have it in first place
3. once in a while worry about interest rate, zillow zestimate of your house
4. an equity that does build over time. Hopefully useful in retirement
5. more time spent on internet reading about home prices
6. being in home prices are going up club

These are super-generalized assumptions. The ironic thing is that my wife and I have lived in the same house for almost 9 years, have not had our rent raised ever, and saved up more money in that time than any home around the bay area has appreciated. Secondly, homes aren't meant to be used as retirement plan. You have to live in something. Another irony is that a lot of people buy homes because they view it as some sort of permanent thing. In the Bay Area the average homeowner only stays in a house for 5 years. I think this is fairly accurate given than on our street close to half the houses that have been bought have also been sold or in some cases sold more than once in the time we've been living there as most who buy only stay for 3-4 years and then for some reason sell and move away. If that's the case, why do people buy anyway?

hrhjuliet says

my son IS learning Mandarin and I think the Mandarin is going to be more useful for self-defense when he is an adult.

Isn't that what folks used to say about learning Russian?

Realtors Are Liars says

For those who think there will be any "equity" at all in the coming decades will be stunned beyond comprehension.

So should I join the ranks of folks like Apocalypsefuck?

edvard2 says

It is suggested that one needs to have 1 million dollars worth of retirement savings by the time you retire. 2 million if you live in an expensive metro ( like the Bay Area).

1 or 2 million in retirement plus massive inflation or huge economic upheaval and still renting as an old person sounds like a bad plan.

A lot of money in retirement AND a stable place to live (paid off house) is the best plan, obviously.

I, for one, do not want to be renting when I am 75 or 80 years old.

1sfrenter says

1 or 2 million in retirement plus massive inflation or huge economic upheaval and still renting as an old person sounds like a bad plan.

A lot of money in retirement AND a stable place to live (paid off house) is the best plan, obviously.

I, for one, do not want to be renting when I am 75 or 80 years old.

Oh- but you will. We all will because in the end we all wind up in a retirement home, paying "rent" to the company that owns it.

But putting that aside, we're going to buy and do so probably in the next year or so. We're just doing the opposite of what most people do: we're taking care of our retirement investments first.

Realtors Are Liars says

(paid off house) is the best plan, obviously.

Obviously? Really? REALLY?

Hows that working out for millions of elderly bailing out of their oversized, depreciating houses and going to live with kids because they can't take care of themselves anymore?

Well, personal testimony, FWIW

I watched my elderly father bounce around from sublet to sublet after losing his Manhattan apartment when it went co-op. Not fun when your health is failing. He ended up dying in a nursing home, which I guess would have happened whether he was a renter or a home owner, but I do think that in old age that kind of instability (moving every year) can't be fun.

My mother, on the other hand, owns her place outright now, and even though her pension is small and her retirement fairly meager, she loves her home and has a sense of "place" and safety that she would not have if she were a 76 year old renter.

Ultimately, some people are happier nesting than others, and owning a home is not purely a financial decision.

I have a good friend who is by nature a wanderer. She has lived in 5 different RVs and twice as many places in the last 10 years. I wouldn't want to live like that, but she's happy.

Some of us want to have kids and dogs and cats and plant trees and fix a place up so we can make it ours. Some don't.

1sfrenter says

Some of us want to have kids and dogs and cats and plant trees and fix a place up so we can make it ours. Some don't.

But again- those are sort of generalizing. We don't have kids but we have done everything else on that list. We landscaped our yard, have a garage to work on things, and generally take care of the house. We also have pets. As mentioned, we've been there for 9 years. Who's to say you couldn't raise kids and have dogs and cats if you rent? A LOT of people do exactly that.

I could also make a generalized claim that people who buy move around a lot also because I've seen it. They bounce from not only house to house, but often times from city to city or even state to state, packing up a huge amount of possessions each time.

Basically, the assertion that buying a home means you are suddenly in a more stable and more permanent situation isn't anymore accurate than making the claim that all renters do is move and move and bounce from one place to another all the time.

edvard2 says

Basically, the assertion that buying a home means you are suddenly in a more stable and more permanent situation isn't anymore accurate than making the claim that all renters do is move and move and bounce from one place to another all the time.

I think we are both right in this case, honestly.

I also think it would be dumb for anyone to buy right now if they think they are going to make a pile of money or if they don't plan on staying where they are for at least 8-10 years.

We have rented the same place for 13 years. But the landlady is getting old and since she retired she has nothing else to do than bug us. Made us clean our garage and cut down a tree (a tree that she gushed over 5 years ago, go figure). Raised our rent $300 month (SFH are not rent-controlled here). And I hate the electric stove but even if I pay for a new gas one and the hook-up she still says no.

I have yet to meet a landlord that isn't imperious. Even the nice ones.

My wife and I started feeling the pressure to buy lately. We still think San Diego is overpriced, but it's coming down and with interest rates we can get into some decent homes now for an affordable mortgage. We were worried that interest rates might go up before (or faster than) house prices declined.

But then Bernanke promised low interest rates til late 2014. We have no doubts now, we're waiting.

1sfrenter says

edvard2 says

It is suggested that one needs to have 1 million dollars worth of retirement savings by the time you retire. 2 million if you live in an expensive metro ( like the Bay Area).

1 or 2 million in retirement plus massive inflation or huge economic upheaval and still renting as an old person sounds like a bad plan.

A lot of money in retirement AND a stable place to live (paid off house) is the best plan, obviously.

I, for one, do not want to be renting when I am 75 or 80 years old.

You always rent unless you live under a bridge. The question is just what you are renting.

1) house
2) money from a bank to pay off house
3) your own investment money to pay off a house

People think owning a home means you are free and clear. Owning a home means less mobility, more maintenance, loss investment growth, etc. A house is not an investment. It is a functional asset that keeps our body protected from the outside elements. You own it just as much as you own the water that flows in your toilet. We are renting everything, don't be fooled.

Shawn says

My wife and I started feeling the pressure to buy lately. We still think San Diego is overpriced, but it's coming down and with interest rates we can get into some decent homes now for an affordable mortgage. We were worried that interest rates might go up before (or faster than) house prices declined.

But then Bernanke promised low interest rates til late 2014. We have no doubts now, we're waiting.

affordable mortgage is an oxymoron. If you mean the monthly looks good, then that is fine. But look around at the house and think about how many hours of work it will require before you are able to pay back the bank. That is anything but affordable to me. Interest rates are a scam.

May I ask what you are fishing for? You registered on this site yesterday, and four of you live in a 500 square foot house?

I too started thinking of buying a house here, but only in the last year or so. Mainly only because in our area I started seeing some houses with prices that were not insanely expensive. As in 350-400k. These had been 600k+ during the boom. That said, I fully realize they seem cheap only because I am comparing them to bubble pricing. I don't really feel any pressure to buy because our rent situation is fairly comfortable and gives us basically the same thing as buying a house since it is a house we're renting. I'd wager to bet that prices will probably not boom anytime soon. The new reality will probably be somewhere in the middle with prices more closely tied to actual real economics and not the unrealistic scenarios during the boom.

1sfrenter says

My mother, on the other hand, owns her place outright now, and even though her pension is small and her retirement fairly meager, she loves her home and has a sense of "place" and safety that she would not have if she were a 76 year old renter.

Buying actually made sense when your Mother purchased. It just doesn't make sense now that we are going through a cleansing process. Will it make sense again? Yup. When? Who the hell knows. My best guess is 3 years from now. I was wrong over 10 times today already, though, if you ask my wife. ;)

My oldest is five and my baby just turned one. My business is totally client and word of mouth based - I teach children and adults to dance. It's not a lucrative business, in the slightest, but because of my solid reputation I do alright. It was a lot of work to get to this point in my career. The other thing holding us here is our family lives in the Bay Area. You are all right, I don't like this area, but I established myself here. I went to school on scholarship here in the Bay Area and started working very young. We are invested, we do have a retirement, but we have always wanted a home, one where we could do as we please, in a quiet neighborhood. We don't want a home to flip, we want a home to plant fruit trees, a place where memories are made. Thank you for all your good advice and honest opinions. After further study of the market we are sure that the Bay Area will come down like everything else, not as low, but back to what it was: a little higher than everything else. We didn't put the offer in, and we plan to let our stocks mature and wait out the market until things settle. I can't say how much a appreciate all of you jumping in with your knowledge and time to help me work this out. As you can see, I had good reasons to do both choices. I just needed to chew on it a little more. I feel good about our choice to wait. We live in a 500 square foot house, for very little rent so we can save, but it has room to run and garden, and is close to our family and our work. For now that is enough. Thank you everyone. (:

hrhjuliet says

We live in a 500 square foot house, for very little rent so we can save, but it has room to run

In my opinion, you are just the type of person the financial sharks would like to exploit. I live in Los Angeles and prices are still dropping here. Hope you found valuable information from your post

David9 - I wasn't fishing for anything, just wanted advice. I had good reasons to stay, and good reasons to bid. I didn't want to regret not bidding and I didn't want to regret the house. I posted the day we were set to bid. I wanted advice from people who were not emotionally invested in me, and not financially invested in me. I wanted a dialogue I could chew on, nothing more. The house is pending. I don't know the bid that won, and for now I'm okay with that. I'm glad I didn't jump in. I just needed to clear my head a little.

hrjhuliet, not my blog, just follow it, this blog has helped me with making good real estate decisions. Sometimes Realtors post here, that's what I was fishing for. ;-)

Thanks David9! (:

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You always rent unless you live under a bridge. The question is just what you are renting.
1) house
2) money from a bank to pay off house
3) your own investment money to pay off a house
People think owning a home means you are free and clear. Owning a home means less mobility, more maintenance, loss investment growth, etc. A house is not an investment. It is a functional asset that keeps our body protected from the outside elements. You own it just as much as you own the water that flows in your toilet. We are renting everything, don't be fooled.

Ding Ding Ding. We have a winner! Vanna, tell him what he's won...

Vanna: you win 24/7 access to Benjamin Bernanke. Call him anytime you need some money. Fuck up your finances? No problem. Uncle Ben is there to bail you out.