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If you are waiting to buy, how long do you expect to wait?


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2012 Apr 20, 3:17am   72,026 views  134 comments

by 1sfrenter   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

We need to move and are sick of renting, but worried that the market has another leg down. We've been waiting for this bubble to play itself out since 2001, are getting older, and don't plan on being lifelong renters.

If you've been waiting to buy, are you waiting indefinitely (as we have for the past 13 years) or do you have a time frame (ie., 6 months, 1 year).

If we buy we plan on staying 10-20 years, or forever, whichever come first.

Thanks to this website and a few other housing blogs, we didn't buy during the bubble. I have friends who did and are now seriously underwater and stuck.

Would hate to be the sucker that shoulda waited another 12 months. Waiting another 3-5 years isn't really an option, I'd like to quit being an amateur armchair economist and get on with my life and stop thinking about housing before I retire.

I know none of us have a RE crystal ball, but the group wisdom saved me from being a sucker 6 years ago when everyone else was behaving like lemmings.

#housing

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119   David9   2012 Apr 25, 6:50am  

dodgerfanjohn says

Already the LA market has begun crumbling anew

About time. This is a first, a two bedroom two bath in Sherman Oaks for 159k. And, it is not trashed. (High HOA, but we know that.)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Sherman-Oaks/4501-Cedros-Ave-91403/unit-126/home/4825527

120   edvard2   2012 Apr 25, 7:05am  

dodgerfanjohn says

Edvard, same thing happened on the Westside Meltdown blog for west Los angeles area. Posts shifted at one point to almost entirely the North of Montana area in Santa Monica. A very small portion of the Westside.

I think it might also be because even though places like the east bay and other areas in the Bay Area are still expensive and for the most part overpriced, they did cool quite a bit. The Peninsula on the other hand is still nutty and I think that draws people's attention.

121   clambo   2012 Apr 25, 7:26am  

Peninsula prices are caused by the 1. guys making just enough money to qualify for the mortgage 2. the social climbing females pressing them into the market 3.the females short-circuiting the brains of the men by direct stimulation of the hypothalamus. 4. men reacting to hypothalamus tickling by females and wanting to "keep her" and thereby buying the over-priced house.
The wages are high enough so the guys will keep struggling to buy.

122   bmwman91   2012 Apr 25, 7:30am  

clambo says

Peninsula prices are caused by the 1. guys making just enough money to qualify for the mortgage 2. the social climbing females pressing them into the market 3.the females short-circuiting the brains of the men by direct stimulation of the hypothalamus. 4. men reacting to hypothalamus tickling by females and wanting to "keep her" and thereby buying the over-priced house.
The wages are high enough so the guys will keep struggling to buy.

My god, we must know completely different women. Or maybe men...what sort of spineless loser lets himself be controlled like that? While I would believe that a lot of house-buying inevitably gets driven by the woman, I sort of doubt that gold-diggers / "tiger moms" are the ones behind the peninsula price lunacy.

123   clambo   2012 Apr 25, 7:44am  

yeah, and we must also know completely different men too.
I think the prices are just high because the location is commuting distance to jobs and of course, foreign women in particular do not care how much a house costs. I could relate an anecdote but I'll skip it for now.

124   clambo   2012 Apr 25, 7:45am  

hardly any guys I know who are married have to fulfill the dreams of a nice female. They just like to struggle for its own sake.
How silly of me.

125   bmwman91   2012 Apr 25, 8:03am  

clambo says

because the location is commuting distance to jobs

Agreed, there. Some of it may be socio-political too. Super greenie weenies with money also flock there because it is full of them already. It's like a bug lamp for them or something. Lots of people also cite the "weather" as an attraction. I guess it is worth all that money to enjoy the lack of snow & humidity when walking between your office & car.

126   bmwman91   2012 Apr 25, 8:05am  

clambo says

hardly any guys I know who are married have to fulfill the dreams of a nice female. They just like to struggle for its own sake.

How silly of me.

Sorry, you lost me a little here.

127   ducsingle5313   2012 Apr 25, 10:56am  

Please stop with the comments about white dudes and Asian chicks. There are plenty of other forums for those discussions, and a lot of the comments are demeaning.

Back to our regularly televised program - - - I agree that women can have a big influence in a couple's decision to buy a home. And this can affect how long you are able to wait in a major way.

One co-worker's wife was hell bent on buying a home in Palo Alto because their kids (oldest is 2) need to go to the best schools. It took my co-worker several months and a lot of wasted time visiting open houses in PA to convince her that between her PhD and his JD, they were just too ghetto to buy there. They wound up buying in Los Altos instead.

Another co-worker's wife is having a kid. They had a nice Eichler in a decent area of Mountain View, but she insisted that they immediately buy a place in Los Altos, again playing the "best schools for the kid" card. Their new place might even be a little smaller than their old Mountain View house.

These are just two examples. Other (male) co-workers have told me that they would never have bought their houses if their wives hadn't insisted upon it.

I think men tend to be a lot more objective and less emotional about house purchases than women. Maybe it's a nesting thing. So those who are married might have a more difficult time remaining a renter.

128   rootvg   2012 Apr 25, 11:11am  

dodgerfanjohn says

Edvard, same thing happened on the Westside Meltdown blog for west Los angeles area. Posts shifted at one point to almost entirely the North of Montana area in Santa Monica. A very small portion of the Westside.

Housing bulls *cough realtor* *cough desperate homedebtors* look for the exception when they gasp for air. Already the LA market has begun crumbling anew(right as we enter the peak selling season no less). The bulls gotta grasp at their few remaining straws in the BA first.

Here again, the rules don't change. If the house is priced according to market and is in an area where schools are good and where people want to live (versus where people end up by default), the house WILL sell.

With regard to LA...yes, Santa Clarita is an outlying area but had we not moved north it is without question where I would have bought. Most of the middle to senior executives where I worked at the time live there. We sweated during fire season but other than that, things were good. We liked them and they liked us.

129   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Apr 25, 11:36am  

edvard2 says

How come like at least 75% of the posts here talk about the Peninsula? The Bay Area is a huge metro and the Peninsula only takes up a small chunk of it...

Because it is The (coveted) Fortress. Areas outside of The Fortress are Silicon Valley versions of the Manhattanites' B 'n T.

130   rootvg   2012 Apr 25, 1:13pm  

bmwman91 says

myob says

...and it's depressing just how little that much money gets you around here.

Yup. Is it any wonder that the rest of the nation considers CA, specifically the SF Bay Area, to be The Land of Fruits & Nuts?

That's because money has no value here. There's too much of it.

131   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 12:15am  

bmwman91 says

I guess it is worth all that money to enjoy the lack of snow & humidity when walking between your office & car.

Hilarious. It's also worth it to work in a windowless cubicle in coastal California rather than work in a windowless cubicle in Buffalo, NY.

132   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 12:20am  

rootvg says

That's because money has no value here. There's too much of it.

Inflation.

Newly printed money from Fed -> Wall Street -> Tech IPOs -> Silicon Valley real estate

133   bmwman91   2012 Apr 26, 10:00am  

wthrfrk80 says

Inflation.

Newly printed money from Fed -> Wall Street -> Tech IPOs -> Silicon Valley real estate

LOL

Sir, are you suggesting that our esteemed web service companies are somehow being fueled by funny money?

134   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 1:36pm  

bmwman91 says

Sir, are you suggesting that our esteemed web service companies are somehow being fueled by funny money?

Of course not. ;)

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