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Lesson from Tuesday:
Trump's coalition is built on "unreliable" voters -- in significant part men between 20 and 40.
Women in the same age group show up at polls and vote. That's what carried Spanberger and Sherril to much bigger than expected victories -- it's not that the Dems have more voters, they have more reliable voters in low-turnout elections.
The Calif Prop 50 election was over 4 weeks ago when the Cal. GOP -- under-resourced -- and wealthy individuals who claimed they would oppose the ballot measure all pulled back.
Harris won Calif by a margin of 58.5 to 38.3.
So the No on 50 campaign needed to have 10% of Harris voters cross-over into the No camp.
The Prop passed with 65% of the vote -- that doesn't mean the Proposition was more popular than Harris, it means reliable Dem voters showed up and opposition voters did not.
For the past 2 weeks I heard "Yes on 50" campaign ads -- on CONSERVATIVE PODCASTS -- and never heard a single "No on 50" ad. The money to oppose the measure never materialized and the CA GOP is not an effective state-wide organization at this point.
Similar results on odd off-year elections happened elsewhere.
The GOP problem is that only Trump motivates these low-propensity voters.
The GOP win in Virginia in 2021, and the very close race for NJ Gov in 2021 with the same candidate who just lost by 12%, were both referendums on the Biden Admin. first 12 months in office.
Trump voters didn't show up on Tuesday because right now Trump voters are -- for the most part -- happy with what the Admin is doing and attempting to do.
Happiness isn't a motivator when it comes to getting people to the polls.


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