0
0

free to good home, puppies


 invite response                
2012 Jul 28, 10:34am   22,463 views  52 comments

by thankshousingbubble   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  


Comments 1 - 40 of 52       Last »     Search these comments

1   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 28, 1:53pm  

Just admit it...

You are sitting on a lot of real estate investments that you can't stand to crash big time...

We know the truth hurts but to deny it is doing yourself a very big disservice.

2   dunnross   2012 Jul 28, 5:29pm  

It doesn't take a Berkeley professor with a Math degree to realize that the banks are withholding inventory. People are allowed to squat in their houses for 3+ years. There are stories of people who have not paid their mortgage in over 5 years, and they still have their houses. Isn't that proof enough?

3   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 28, 6:15pm  

The fact that a Berkeley Math Professor can't understand the simple concept of why RE hasn't reached it's true bottom due to very obvious shadow inventory makes me seriously lose faith in this country.

It also proves to me what I've believed for a very long time; That college curriculum is for the most part very insufficient & useless in the real world. It's just a stupid piece of paper that ego-maniacs like to boast & brag about.

Better to actually do great things than to merely speak about being able yet
fail at walking the talk.

4   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 28, 6:18pm  

"And NO, if the market here crashes further, i will happily buy even more properties at that time!"

Good luck happily buying anything after another crash... Because banks all over will have a solvency problem.

5   xenogear3   2012 Jul 28, 6:20pm  

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Just admit it...

You are sitting on a lot of real estate investments that you can't stand to crash big time...

I agree.
He is losing sleep right now.

After the election, I expect a big recession.

6   dunnross   2012 Jul 28, 6:26pm  

xenogear3 says

He is losing sleep right now.

I've lost plenty of sleep over my investments, in my time, but, never did I insult anyone, because of it.

7   xenogear3   2012 Jul 28, 11:33pm  

Just google Dean Graziosi.
He has more info than him.

8   gbenson   2012 Jul 29, 5:59am  

The answer forming in this thread, is that its common knowledge because the perma-bears keep saying it, therefore it must be true.

In our area I have been seeing foreclosures come to market in a matter of weeks after the notice is posted on the door. There may well be reasons (legal issues) that are making the squat times so high in other states.

While the arguments for banks sitting on inventory have merit (massive writedowns, etc), so too does the case as to why banks would not sit on massive inventory.

The one flaw I see in the writedown theory is that while the number of foreclosures is likely to decrease the farther we get away from 2008, there will still be some, so a bank would need to spread their losses out over many many years (current years plus some portion of the prior years). In fact, they'd have to balance the losses out with profits, the latter being MUCH thinner these days. Couple this with having to pay expenses (taxes, HOA's, minimal upkeep), and loss of value due to deteriorating condition. Sitting on too much inventory would destroy your profits just in expenses, not to mention the compounded loss when you did eventually sell it. So the strategy would only work up to a certain inventory load.

There may very well be tax advantages I am not aware of that mitigate some of this, but if you were in that big of a hole, most companies would at least consider putting it all on one years books, do a limited bankruptcy to write off the losses, reorganize, and come back profitable.

Banks look at the same projections we do, the market will be flat at best for the next decade, with perhaps modest growth in line with inflation. Unless they are betting the farm that the projections are wrong (unlikely), or hoping for a Romney presidency and get some massive forgiveness tax break (possible, and I hope unlikely), then there doesn't seem like a huge advantage to sit on property unless you had a TON in a local market that would crater the values. Based on the short supply in many localities, banks would be getting more on the market right now before the seasonal dip in the winter months. This of course assumes they had the inventory and could legally sell it that fast.
They aren't, so what's that tell you?

9   xenogear3   2012 Jul 29, 6:07am  

robertoaribas, you really need to learn more from Dean Graziosi.
He is selling AZ real estate, too, and everyone believes him.

Your selling pitch is not very good.
Everyone here hates you.

10   Goran_K   2012 Jul 29, 6:54am  

robertoaribas says

increasing filings for foreclosures, increasing delinquencies on mortgages. Neither of these are happening at this

Foreclosures starts are rising YOY:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreclosure-starts-rise-040152590.html

Also how do you explain DataQuick, and Corelogic (both firms I believe who have more resources to rely upon for accurate data than "Roberto Aribas) reporting that shadow inventory is still exceptionally high?

11   dunnross   2012 Jul 29, 7:08am  

robertoaribas says

Now, if a tsunami of shadow inventory is coming, it would seem that several measurable precursors would predict it: increasing filings for foreclosures, increasing delinquencies on mortgages. Neither of these are happening at this time.

Sure, like they predicted back in 2008 that prices were going to drop. Except Peter Schiff, Mish & Roubini hardly anyone predicted it. But now, these same economists are predicting another crash, and people like roberto are, once again, not listening.

12   Goran_K   2012 Jul 29, 7:33am  

robertoaribas says

How can you not know the difference between NATIONAL data and LOCAL data? Anyways, in AZ, foreclosure starts for the first half of 2012 are down 37% from 2011... per dataquick... So, if we saw prices increase over last year, and have less foreclosures gong forward... what conclusion would you draw?

If you only want to talk about Arizona, maybe you should change your thread title to "Common Knowledge that the banks are withholding foreclosure homes in ARIZONA..."

Besides, I believe many people have covered Arizona specifically. Arizona crashed very hard compared to most areas of the nation. So the correction in Arizona is happening quicker than other areas. That sort of still belies the fact Arizona has one of the highest percentages of underwater homeowners in the country:
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/info-NEGATIVE_EQUITY_0911.html

So we'll see how many will continue to pay their mortgages when their neighbors walked away long ago, and people are picking up their home for a fraction of the previous note.

13   Goran_K   2012 Jul 29, 7:42am  

Like I said Robert, foreclosures starts are down in Arizona, but I don't believe that tells the whole story. Arizona is #2 in the nation for percentage of homeowners with negative equity (only behind Nevada):
http://bottomline.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/03/14/10626408-5-states-drowning-in-underwater-mortgages?lite

Here are some other facts about the Arizona market:
- Percent homes underwater: 48.3 percent
- Total property value: $243.02 billion
- Mortgage debt outstanding: $226.22 billion
- Median home value drop from peak: 47.9 percent (second-biggest decline)
- Homes in foreclosure or 90-plus days delinquent: 7.1 percent (11th-largest percentage)

Being #2 in negative equity, and #11 in the 90+ day deliquency department show me that Arizona might be enjoying a short term upward bounce (after 4 years of price drops from peak), but there is still a significant downside to Arizona's market.

14   Goran_K   2012 Jul 29, 8:00am  

Well, I think it's one of those things that will take a while to see how it pans out. It's very difficult to explain market volatility, and short term events, even the best get it wrong time after time. What we do know is the reduction in inventory is a recent national occurrence, not only in Arizona, and it happened very quickly (within 5-6 months).

The causes are debatable, but the effect isn't. I personally believe banks are causing the shortage through market manipulation, and with the tacit agreement of the federal government because taxpayers cannot afford another financial bailout for those institutions if they had to realize their losses on paper (though that is only a personal theory, and of course impossible to prove).

One thing I know for sure is that all the delinquent mortgages didn't suddenly cure, nor did all those empty homes suddenly get bought up.

15   tatupu70   2012 Jul 29, 8:42am  

Call it Crazy says

Many "shadow" house don't show up on ANY data point.... you can "look" for data all you want on Freddie and Fannie records but they aren't going to tell you NOTHING if the bank hasn't moved to foreclose.

They'll be on the delinquency reports, won't they? 30 day/60 day/90 day/pre-foreclosure lists...

16   zhanka   2012 Jul 29, 12:26pm  

Should be, but not always the case.

Our neighbors (60+ years old) stopped making payments sines last summer, no records on their property anywhere. They purchased it in 2007, now 5 years later deeply underwater.

After trying to negotiate with BOA for many months, they have been offered a loan modification: 50 years fixed with 3.25% interest, no principle reduction/forgiveness, plus all interest for the last year will be added to the principle.

Their current mortgage 5.25% variable for 30 years with 10 years fixed interest only.

By accepting this offer they will save about $1,000 per month, but they will be renting their property from BOA for the rest of their life.

17   SJ   2012 Jul 29, 12:43pm  

Aha! So thats why real estate prices have been kept artificially high in the bay area! I knew that boatloads of corrupt filthy rich Chinese were not the reason.

18   anonymous   2012 Jul 29, 1:11pm  

zhanka says

Should be, but not always the case.

Our neighbors (60+ years old) stopped making payments sines last summer, no records on their property anywhere. They purchased it in 2007, now 5 years later deeply underwater.

After trying to negotiate with BOA for many months, they have been offered a loan modification: 50 years fixed with 3.25% interest, no principle reduction/forgiveness, plus all interest for the last year will be added to the principle.

Their current mortgage 5.25% variable for 30 years with 10 years fixed interest only.

By accepting this offer they will save about $1,000 per month, but they will be renting their property from BOA for the rest of their life.

30yr mort in '07 in their 60's,,,,,they were already signed up to rent from boa for the rest of their lives

Fuck the data

The psychology matters as much if not more then anything. People still view the whole ponzi scheme the same way they did five years ago. If you give them enough rope (credit), they will club and claw over one another to hang themselves with it. Overbidding now into supply constrained markets, and jacked up rents ought be plenty proof.

Its like buying season tickets for the Steelers. There's only so many available, but everyone wants them. If they auctioned them to the highest bidders, we'd have a website with 1000's complaining about how they can't buy a Steelers ticket for the same price a detroit lions ticket. Well no shit, sherlock, look at how many people are fighting it out for the fixed supply of land in SFBA , I bet if you asked um all, they're going to tell ya, california is so eff'ing cool. Which is the same reason the same people look down their noses at pheonix/arizona, because who on earth would want to buy more house for 80% less, I mean, it's pheonix. Real estate is local, and location location location really does matter. All realtwhore trichanry aside, all that matters is the desirablity of the location.

The most mind boggling, is that most people just want to use a piece of RE as a consumption item. It provides them NO RETURN, on the contrary, it requires a lifetime of maintenance and upkeep. They pay for their vanity. At least some people still understand that land/RE does provide a return, TO SOMEONE. Its just usually, someone else. The landlord, the bank, the local government.

there's two sides to every trade

19   Buster   2012 Jul 29, 1:29pm  

All the foreclosed homes were sent to Kolob by Joseph Smith. Not until Romney comes to power will they be sent back. Until then, prices are going higher, much higher. If you don't believe me, just check out the Book of Mormon. Jeesh!

Detail of Joseph Smith Hypocephalus. Reference numeral 1 represents Kolob according to Joseph Smith, Jr., who was not a trained Egyptologist. Critics interpret this as an altered figure of a creator god.

20   JodyChunder   2012 Jul 29, 4:17pm  

dunnross says

t doesn't take a Berkeley professor with a Math degree to realize that the banks are withholding inventory.

Yes, they are doing this for aone simply reason and that is because of second liens or HELOCS which they will not dishcarge. this is yesterdays news

21   JodyChunder   2012 Jul 29, 4:20pm  

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

I am warning that you are making a very risky & bad bet based upon misguided optimism not facts & figures which clearly demonstrate the RE market to crash further. I never name called you nor did I ever personally attack you.

no way. we all like Roberto. He is a veyr warm man. Yes He is also a troubled soul but he offers his honest input on here and that is invaluable to me. :(

22   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 29, 4:54pm  

"You have never posted a single fact that shows anything to back up your belief. Thanks for the warning, but I invest on data."

I'm not here to teach. Just because I don't post my facts... Just my predictions, doesn't mean that proves they are not based on facts. Nice try though.

"You have posted many times that "housing will collapse 95%. I am buying a home in two weeks for $60,000 that has a tenant in it paying $850 a month. 3/2/2 garage on a golf course... So, this home will be $3000 soon? fascinating!"

No. I said 90-95% off 2005 prices. Not today's prices. Stop taking things out of context & putting them into your own context.

"Which facts have I deleted?"

Shadow inventory.

"Where are these shadow homes?"

Where are the stolen goods from a burglary or robbery?

23   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 29, 5:05pm  

"All that is going to cause my to lose money on real estate? what about global warming, and colony collapse syndrome that is hurting the bee population?"

Your sarcasm is actually a psychological mechanism of denial if you believe none of the below can affect real estate...

"It IS based upon 3 years of research of historical RE data, demographics, trends, fractional reserve banking, mortgage industry, income correlation, divorce rates, marriage rates, birth rates, interest rates, lending practices, foreclosures, deflation, inflation, monetary policy, international trends, economic conditions..."

You have a vested interest... Period.

24   JodyChunder   2012 Jul 29, 6:02pm  

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

ou have a vested interest... Period.

I do to bud , but I know reality from a wish and the shadow inventory you all are talking about is a fact. I know because I deal in foreclosures. Banks that have properties with 2nd mortgages on them are unable to do much with them. they can't sell them to Fannie and Freddie and they will not right down the second mortgage so they stay on the books. this is really real Robber. I have treid to buy such properites by getting in tough directly with the banks and.. guess what .big fat nothing. it is more EQUITABLE for them to keep them on they books than to sell to me for speculation which is just BS. I want more rentals!!!!!! A mans gotta eat and I eat damn well!

25   JodyChunder   2012 Jul 29, 6:24pm  

robertoaribas says

Guess what? in AZ, they just get wiped out in the foreclosure, so they can negotiate for a token payment in short sale, or they can get nadda.

Sorry Rob. As anyone with eyes in they head can see, you are a good-hearted man, and also a friend-to-animals. But that what you said here is simply untrue my friend ..least from what I seen. Banks jus can't be that different in AZ than what they are in the two states I own houses in. I am telling you, these banks do not so casually wipe out seconds because among other things, the seconds are actually reported as performing. I don't blame them, frankly.

http://www.americanbanker.com/specialreports/176_5/second-lien-loans-remain-worry-1036731-1.html

26   JodyChunder   2012 Jul 29, 6:24pm  

robertoaribas says

AND have paid me rental income in excess of 10% of the purchase price..

This will be 35% in another five years. You will be too busy counting you $$$ to come on Patrick and wrastle with the out crowd!

27   freak80   2012 Jul 29, 11:29pm  

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

That college curriculum is for the most part very insufficient & useless in the real world.

Pretty much, yes. Unless you go into sick-care.

28   freak80   2012 Jul 29, 11:39pm  

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Good luck happily buying anything after another crash... Because banks all over will have a solvency problem.

Small banks might have a solvency problem. The big ones will have an endless stream of newly-printed cash from Uncle Ben.

29   gbenson   2012 Jul 30, 5:35am  

We are moving forward on a condo short sale here in Oregon that also has a 2nd mortgage. Took a little more time clearing the title, and I am not privy to what lender is getting what out of the deal, but guessing the 2nd mortgage holder is getting close to diddly.

30   David9   2012 Jul 30, 5:37am  

LOL! This site is just too awesome sometimes.

31   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 30, 6:18am  

freak80 says

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Good luck happily buying anything after another crash... Because banks all over will have a solvency problem.

Small banks might have a solvency problem. The big ones will have an endless stream of newly-printed cash from Uncle Ben.

I believe all banks will have a solvency problem. I do not think their will be bail outs this time.

I think their will be a currency devaluation first & then the FDIC will give depositors cheap money.

FDIC is by the way a private corporation severely lacking in funds to cover major bank failures & solvency issues.

32   Eman   2012 Jul 30, 6:20am  

"If you even have one brain cell, you will sell. You are getting greedy. Cash out, now. Once you win, don't become intoxicated & try to win more."

The problem is he has 2 cells left in his brain. That's why he hasn't sold yet. Why sell at $120k today when you can sell it for $240k or more in ten years. In the meantime, the property mints money for you. :)

33   Eman   2012 Jul 30, 6:25am  

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

I believe all banks will have a solvency problem.

Your believe is not the reality. Here is the reality. Wells Fargo & JP Morgan Chase are making record profits despite the fact that JPM recently loss $4.4B in derivative trades.

Hello? Anyone home?

34   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 30, 6:25am  

E-man says

"If you even have one brain cell, you will sell. You are getting greedy. Cash out, now. Once you win, don't become intoxicated & try to win more."

The problem is he has 2 cells left in his brain. That's why he hasn't sold yet. Why sell at $120k today when you can sell it for $240k or more in ten years. In the meantime, the property mints money for you. :)

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

You will think that you are making gains but when you adjust inflation you are actually not & in fact losing.

Rents will fail as well. They are just temporary sources of income.

35   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 30, 6:31am  

E-man says

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

I believe all banks will have a solvency problem.

Your believe is not the reality. Here is the reality. Wells Fargo & JP Morgan Chase are making record profits despite the fact that JPM recently loss $4.4B in derivative trades.

Hello? Anyone home?

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

What these banks practice is crony capitalism. Where the debt is PUBLICALLY shared, yet their profits are PRIVATELY shared.

You are very short-sighted with how these banks are making their money.

J.P Morgan will have a solvency problem but will not go out of business, since they essentially have shares in the Federal Reserve & FDIC.

If not solvency, they will shut down all banks no matter how big or small... Devalue the currency & the reopen all banks to pay out depositors.

Small banks will likely however be bought out along with buying out whole entire corporations for pennies on the dollars. They did this during the great depression & they will do it again.

Ignorance gives you often a opposite appearance of reality.

36   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 30, 7:02am  

They did this during the great depression and they will do it again!

In 1929, you had a incomplete crash. Then denial. Then false hope and then a complete crash in 1933.

In 2008, you had a incomplete crash. Then denial. Now false hope and miss guided optimists like Roberto. And the complete crash is coming in end of 2012.

1929-1933

2008-2012

All 4 years apart. History repeats itself. You will also likely have a major war.

Many people during 1929 through 1933 in the media were optimists & even common people like Roberto were becoming optimists. The the crash of 1933 came & they lost everything. Many of these same people paraded themselves as being experts & extremely credible due to "education". You have the same problem with so called "credible experts" today.

Great depression ended around December, 1941. The coming great depression will end around December, 2020.

8 years apart from shit hit the fan until you begin to have some level of prosperity & decent living standards for the majority of people.

Now is not the time to make money. That should have been done during the 90's & early to mid 2000's.

Now is the time to keep what you have & prepare for collapse so it doesn't affect you. Then, once the collapse comes... Then you become greedy & buy as much as you can for pennies on the dollars.

Passing on your pennies on the dollar deals to future generations 80 years later... Making them very wealthy as long they weren't fuck ups.

Just like the Rockefeller's, Rothschild's, Carnegie's, Dupont's, Vanderbilt's & Morgan's along with the rest of the secret aristocracy.

37   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 30, 7:13am  

^

Useless babble up ahead.

38   Goran_K   2012 Jul 30, 7:43am  

This crash is far worse than the Great Depression when you consider the ratio of privately held debt, to income.

39   Goran_K   2012 Jul 30, 7:45am  

robertoaribas says

and the middle class may be destroyed for our generation.

Is the middle class not already at that point? Seems like it from most indicators (income growth, job growth, privately held debt per capita, etc).

40   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 Jul 30, 8:00am  

"Fair enough, you've given a basis for your beliefs, and I respect that."

I will also give points for at least owning some physical land & real estate. And not keeping all your wealth in fiat currency.

At least it is something physically valuable unlike paper. I also believe that the coming crash will be worse for those with no assets of real estate... Just fiat currency kept in banks.

But also believe again that buying real estate now is a mistake.

Silver is the best investment right now. Protects you from fiat currency crisis & another RE crash.

Comments 1 - 40 of 52       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions