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A FB Stock "What If?"


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2012 Aug 1, 5:30am   12,614 views  29 comments

by bmwman91   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

OK, so the stock has been trending down since the IPO. The employee lockup ends in less than a month. Stock bears are probably setting up short positions on FB across the board in anticipation of the employees unloading as fast as they can, and FB dumping 350M+ shares to cover the taxes.

What if....?

What if FB management told all employees to HOLD their shares the day that the lockup expires, rather than dump? All of the shorters would panic & have to cover their positions, driving the price up. Then employees could unload the next day at a higher price. How likely is it that FB would actually form this internal strategy? No idea. How likely is it that employees would actually NOT sell at the first chance since the future price really is unknown? No idea.

What say ye, users of the P.Net?

#investing

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1   Vicente   2012 Aug 1, 5:39am  

bmwman91 says

What if FB management told all employees to HOLD their shares the day that the lockup expires, rather than dump?

Nothing would send a stronger signal of weakness than word of such a move to leak out. There's no way you could send that message without someone blabbing it.

"Three people can keep a secret, if two of them are dead." - Benjamin Franklin

2   zzyzzx   2012 Aug 1, 5:40am  

I doubt anyone could realistically do this. I wouldn't expect the employees to not dump the stock just because you asked them to. By in large, people are pigs and will want to dump the stock to pay for hookers & blow, rims, big screen TV's, shopping trips, vacations, or even pay down debts before they would hold on to that stinker of a stock.

3   bmwman91   2012 Aug 1, 7:01am  

LOL

OK, so feasibility is probably zero. I suppose that it is especially so since FB is all about sharing every detail of your life. Someone would squeal.

So, who has taken up short positions for Aug 19 (that's the day, right)? Surely there is a mountain of shorts piled up for that day by now.

4   swebb   2012 Aug 1, 7:09am  

I don't follow it that closely...are there an excessive amount of short positions?

Just sharing the idea that the short positions are weighing down the stock might be enough to get people to consider holding it for a little while longer -- just because it might be in their individual interest if they individually do it. Trying to sell it as a big collective "good of the whole" kind of move...doubtful. If I were a FBer with a lot of stock, I'd probably sell a portion of it on the day the lockup ends, but I probably wouldn't want to sell all of it at the same time "everyone else" was...I would be likely to hold on to it and average it out over months or a few years. Hard to say.

5   Vicente   2012 Aug 1, 7:32am  

bmwman91 says

So, who has taken up short positions for Aug 19 (that's the day, right)?

Not me. I don't like crowded trades.

6   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Aug 1, 7:55am  

Facebook is on its way to the teens! Code is not that complicated and nothing about FB justifies a 50B market cap. It is a site of gossip and photos. People get saturated with it eventually and then just check in a few times a week to see what everyone is doing. When they make a product let me know. At 50B they should be selling something to someone.

7   Facebooksux   2012 Aug 1, 8:27am  

Keep an eye out on that other POS company--Linkedin. Lots of insider selling going on and their earnings are due out tomorrow. How this stock is priced so high is beyond me.

On the bright side, once these pieces of crap tank, I think it's going to put a serious downer on the whole bay area housing hype-machine.

Also, AF, I've been watching The Walking Dead and planning out logistics for Cannibal Anarchy. I'm going to go with Yams instead of regular potatoes because I don't want to get Diabeetus during the apocalypse. Yams are MUCH more nutritious and have a lower glycemic index.

8   Vicente   2012 Aug 1, 8:42am  

Facebooksux says

I've been watching The Walking Dead

9   REpro   2012 Aug 1, 8:55am  

Most likely, employee will jump and sell.
What supposed to be a Goldmine is now running fast out of Gold.

10   mell   2012 Aug 1, 9:03am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Facebook is on its way to federal court in the ninth district for fraud and final delisting. This thing stinks to high heaven.

Sorry, that's your wishful thinking - while your accusations might have merit, the SEC/FBI is too busy watching porn. Nobody here goes to prison for financial crimes. Judges can and will be bought and paid for. Although delisting is a real possibility at least ;)

11   bmwman91   2012 Aug 1, 9:11am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Zuckfuck has lied and cheated everyone he's ever spoken to - including people who can afford lawyers working for most of a decade to make sure he ends up in a wedding dress in a supermax, bent over a lunch table while neonazi serial killers shred his asshole for him.

Oh man, post of the YEAR.

12   Dan8267   2012 Aug 1, 9:48am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Zuckfuck has lied and cheated everyone he's ever spoken to - including people who can afford lawyers working for most of a decade to make sure he ends up in a wedding dress in a supermax, bent over a lunch table while neonazi serial killers shred his asshole for him.

Got Zuckfuck a present. Just be sure not to drop it.

14   mell   2012 Aug 1, 10:47am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Big difference:

Zuckfuck has lied and cheated everyone he's ever spoken to - including people who can afford lawyers working for most of a decade to make sure he ends up in a wedding dress in a supermax, bent over a lunch table while neonazi serial killers shred his asshole for him.

The twin fucktards should take a piece of their settlement and hire some lawyers to build some referrals to Justice and hold quarterly press conferences on Zuckfuck's crimes, until he's indicted and put away. Make it into a reality TV show.

Maybe so - he is also not a member of Wall Street. Let's see if we can get some fireworks.

15   Facebooksux   2012 Aug 1, 10:48am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Facebooksux says

I'm going to go with Yams instead of regular potatoes because I don't want to get Diabeetus during the apocalypse. Yams are MUCH more nutritious and have a lower glycemic index.

You've contributed to my appreciation of the yam. But what kind of cultivation do they need to grow?

http://robbwolf.com/2011/04/20/growing-sweet-potatoes/

16   xenogear3   2012 Aug 1, 1:31pm  

If you don't sell, this thing will drop to less than a dollar.

17   Eman   2012 Aug 1, 2:35pm  

Fear & Greed.

When the stock is falling, the employees are afraid that it will go even lower. So they're panic and try to lock in some free money while they can. When the stock is going up, they don't want to sell because they're afraid that it will go even higher. How many people are currently thinking of selling AAPL?

I know a guy that works for FB. He has over 200k shares. I bet his wife would tell him to sell 50k shares to lock in $1M before the stock goes even lower. No reason to let all of it ride. We were talking about the guy worth over $7M when FB went public. Now he's worth just over $4M in a few short months.

18   Buster   2012 Aug 1, 2:57pm  

E-man says

Now he's worth just over $4M in a few short months.

Microscopic violin playing inaudible sounds. zero tears.

19   FortWayne   2012 Aug 1, 3:47pm  

It's a good short coming.

20   bmwman91   2012 Aug 2, 4:06am  

Buster says

E-man says

Now he's worth just over $4M in a few short months.

Microscopic violin playing inaudible sounds. zero tears.

22   anonymous   2012 Aug 4, 4:38am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Facebooksux says

I'm going to go with Yams instead of regular potatoes because I don't want to get Diabeetus during the apocalypse. Yams are MUCH more nutritious and have a lower glycemic index.

You've contributed to my appreciation of the yam. But what kind of cultivation do they need to grow?

Sweet potatoes and yams are two different things
Sweet potatoes and white potatoes are also, two different things

White potatoes suck to grow, not only because potatoe beetles will find them and eat them, but because they are nutritionally lacking

Sweet potatoes are rather easy to grow (think of having morning glorys,,,,then think of trying to get rid of them) and are as nutritious a 'starch' as you'll come across, not to mention they are very tasty and they stand alone, unlike white potatoes that require salt, pepper and butter. They are a low maintenance grow, because they vine with broad leaves so once they've taken to a healthy root, they double as a ground cover so less weeds to pull,,,,,

I'm not certain but id imagine that white potatoes probaly store/keep a little better, but ill pass. I do enjoy the hell out of those tasty little redskinned potatoes

23   New Renter   2012 Aug 4, 4:48am  

True that. There is a guy in Santa Clara who runs a little stall in front of an asian grocery store. All he sells is roasted sweet potatoes. Hell yes they are good!

Apocolypsefuck you should definitely grow these into your garden. Some onions wouldn't hurt either.

24   Eman   2012 Aug 5, 1:24pm  

Buster says

E-man says

Now he's worth just over $4M in a few short months.

Microscopic violin playing inaudible sounds. zero tears.

Buster & BMWman,

That was funny. Thanks for the laugh. :)

25   Vicente   2012 Aug 12, 5:52pm  

FB first wave of selloffs on Thursday.

26   everything   2012 Aug 12, 6:59pm  

FB is a hard stock to play, sure they could make an inside ask, I guess, in the IT world, it can be hard to set a standard, sadly, you can't just snap your fingers and make IT work for you instantly, although the cloud is trying to pull us in that direction more in it's own way. A good company in it's infancy often has many great possibilities but you can't try and do everything at once either.

27   StoutFiles   2012 Aug 12, 10:37pm  

Their CEO and majority shareholder has shirtless hangouts with his moronic friends. His "Director of Engineering", who is supposed to be the smartest person at the company, though it was a good idea to upload a picture of them all hanging out with their clothes off.

It's a company for kids run by kids, and then investors wonder why none of the kids click ads. They might have half the internet on their site, but no one on that site is looking to spend money. Even the hugely popular Facebook games are losing steam, Zynga is dying a slow, painful death right now.

28   Tenpoundbass   2012 Aug 13, 4:39am  

StoutFiles says

Zynga is dying a slow, painful death right now.

I keep telling my wife she needs a contingency plan she spends about 4 hours a day playing Farmville, or the latest Someville flavor of the month.

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