patrick.net

Malkovich,

I agree. Certain areas have doubled in prices since the bottom of the market. This 4-plex was foreclosed in August for $527k. Amazingly, it's pending for $730k as a REO . That's $200k spread. Even investors didn't think they could flip it for $730k. That was why no one bought it at the steps.

I wouldn't listen to your CPA's advice. If your CPA is any good, s/he would have a decent net worth and not be rented in a rent control area. If history is any indication, we have more room to run. How much more is anyone's guess. How would you feel about waiting for another 5-10 years for the next housing bottom only to see that prices are the same or even higher than they are now? How many more real estate cycles can you wait before you dropped dead? Being financially conservative cuts both ways.

I'm sorry for not being able to help you a couple of years ago when you reached out to me. 4%-5% commission was not worth the time and effort for me to research and help you buy these multi-unit properties in Alameda County. Had you looked for properties in Santa Clara County, I would have been able to help you out in a heart beat. On the bright side, you're making a lot more money now than ever.

In my opinion, now is not the best time to buy, but it's not the worse time either. I think home prices are at equilibrium to +/- 10%. No doubt some areas already sold for above peak prices, but interest rates are so cheap. They're more than compensated for the higher price.

Just put yourself in the investors' shoes. You bought whole bunch of properties at the bottom of the market. These properties have doubled in value, but your property tax basis was locked in at the bottom prices with 2% annual increase cap. At the same time, you locked in 30-year fixed mortgages between 3.75%-4.25%. Your primary residence is locked in at 3.25%-3.5% for 30 years. Give me a good reason why you would ever want to sell these properties when the tenants are buying you these houses and putting money in your pocket every month?

As usual, just my 2 cents. Good luck.

Homeboy says

Actually, more than doubled:

Haha...the fallacy of medians...keep believing.

E-man says

I'm sorry for not being able to help you a couple of years ago when you reached out to me. 4%-5% commission was not worth the time and effort for me to research and help you buy these multi-unit properties in Alameda County. Had you looked for properties in Santa Clara County, I would have been able to help you out in a heart beat. On the bright side, you're making a lot more money now than ever.

In my opinion, now is not the best time to buy, but it's not the worse time either. I think home prices are at equilibrium to +/- 10%. No doubt some areas already sold for above peak prices, but interest rates are so cheap. They're more than compensated for the higher price.

No worries E-man. I haven't found a place for lack of trying, believe me. There simply has been no inventory (RE multis) in my zip codes. I have submitted exactly 4 offers the last 2-3 years. I was out bid or, in one case, rescinded my offer.

I was also interested in another 3-4 listings but the listing agent either blew my agent off (never returned calls, said there was already a deal pending despite is being listed for sale for another month, etc.) or otherwise blocked any other bids to make a dual-agent sale.

I'm not giving up but it seems there is still a dearth of inventory and prices still going up. And now all this "Oakland is the new Brooklyn." Trying to stay optimistic and hoping something will come along.

Carolyn C says

Oakland is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The bad PR comes from those that don't live in the area.

I agree. I spend a lot of weekend in Oakland. Its like anywhere else. There's good parts and bad parts. The same holds true in SF.

edvard2 says

Many parts of Oakland I used to feel a little uneasy walking around in during the day now might as well be a West Coast Brooklyn: You almost trip over the hipsters around there.

So that's basically the deal. Oakland is now the new "cool" place to move to and now that this the word is out, it too, like the rest of the Bay Area will suffer the same soulless gentrification.

Is it soulless gentrification to be able to walk around in comfort? To me, a neighborhood getting safer is a good thing. I suppose I would choose soullessness over getting mugged, but they aren't mutually exclusive either.

JFP says

This sums up the uselessness of the bearish advice on this forum. Who the hell can base housing decisions on a 30 year time horizon?

An excellent illustration of the difference in approach to the issue. I would argue the other way. "Who can afford to base housing decisions on less than 30 year time horizons?" I didn't inherit any money, so compound growth over time is my only chance at having any. I'm not a bear. The math says that I'm better off renting in my situation. My situation is unusual, however, since I choose to live in San Francisco and we have such an usual cost of housing.

Carolyn C says

I have a home in Oakland you idiot! And I am not a RE troll dumb ass. Man you are stupid. And yes I have kids.

And this explains why you are saying crime is no big deal in Oakland, because you want your house value to go up. Oakland has worse crime than any other city in California (including Compton, Stockton, Richmond, and EPA). It is in the top 10 most dangerous cities to live in the entire U.S.

http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/neighborhoods/crime-rates/top100dangerous/

The time you spend covering up the problem would be better spent trying to fix the problem. And there IS a problem.

FunTime says

An excellent illustration of the difference in approach to the issue. I would argue the other way. "Who can afford to base housing decisions on less than 30 year time horizons?" I didn't inherit any money, so compound growth over time is my only chance at having any. I'm not a bear. The math says that I'm better off renting in my situation. My situation is unusual, however, since I choose to live in San Francisco and we have such an usual cost of housing.

If you think you know what is going to happen in 30 years in either your own life or housing, then you are seriously deluded. 30 years before now was 1984. How many people then, got even 1994 right? Never mind 2014.

How did you get the idea that I said crime is not a problem. Crime is always a problem. My intentions are not to increase my home value because I complement Oakland. My home has already increased in value since I purchased and will continue to increase. My opinion will not change peoples minds about the city. People will decide for themselves. And they are deciding that Oakland is a wonderful place to live, hence the prices. What really gets me are people like yourself speaking garbage about a city you haven't lived in. You don't know what it's like to live in Oakland. I do. Oakland is not as bad as the media makes it out to be. And it's the big mouth cry babies that are too afraid to walk past a black person that are screaming "Oakland is a big scary city and dangerous to live in". Keep your opinions to what you know, the suburbs.

Tom Hanks grew up in Oakland, Gerry Brown lived in Oakland, Suze Orman LIVES in Oakland. Who lived in your crap town.

I know exactly where Tom Hanks lived (it wasn't that long by the way). He lived a street up from a family friend of my parents who lived on Fair street off the Carson exit. Just below that it starts to get into the pretty nasty neighborhoods. A lot has changed since Tom lived there.

I agree that not all parts of Oaktown are that bad--I grew up going to church in Oakland every Saturday. I also worked in gangster rap, so I've been to the scary parts. And I can honestly say that I am very happy to be alive. I feel for the kids that have to grow up like that. There are plenty of people who grow up and live in Oakland that have never been to the flats, so they really don't know what those parts are like.

Cool! I'm sure it has changed a lot since then.

SiO2 says

Is it soulless gentrification to be able to walk around in comfort? To me, a neighborhood getting safer is a good thing. I suppose I would choose soullessness over getting mugged, but they aren't mutually exclusive either.

All the hipsters can now suffer the same lung problems as the locals who live too close to the diesel fumes.

I have been to the flats. And I am not afraid to go by myself. I am on the alert. No the city is far from perfect. There are so many different neighborhoods to choose from. But it's not for people that want perfection. If you want culture, diversity, variety, art, good food, social awareness, excitement, then Oakland is the place for you.

Carolyn C says

Oakland is not as bad as the media makes it out to be.

Writing about Oakland like it's one experience doesn't make sense. Same goes for most big cities.

I just had friends leave Oakland for another state. There were a lot of reasons, but it didn't help that their house had been broken into three times in a year, twice while their toddler was at home with a nanny, all four of their bikes had been stolen and their three cars were repeatedly burglarized.

I'm not writing that to say that's what it's like to live in Oakland, but, depending on where you live in Oakland, it can be.

BTW, I'm not the stereotypical San Franciscan who hates Oakland. Oakland is great! I like lots of parts of Oakland and love a lot of restaurants and concert venues there.

FunTime,

My home has never been broken into. So I can only share my experience. What part of the city did your friends live?

Most dangerous cities
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2014/02/03/dangerous-cities/index.html

What Oakland is doing on this list???

Carolyn C says

I have been to the flats. And I am not afraid to go by myself. I am on the alert.

And you are on the alert because...? Most cities you don't need to be on the alert to simply walk down the street by yourself, believe it or not. Perhaps you can't see the forest from the trees, but more likely you are simply an Oakland property owner shill trying to boost your house value, hardly an unbiased opinion.

My experience is that Oakland is not as bad as the media reports. Does Oakland have crime? Yes. Is Oakland the safest place in the world. NO. Is Oakland perfect? No. Does Oakland have a lot to offer. Yes. Please tell me what city in America is crime free. I met a lady that was held at gun point in San Ramon Rite Aid if I remember correctly along with others. The cashier dialed 411 instead of 911. So the lady said she ran out of the store because she knew help was not coming. The men chased her down and kicked her badly for running. She was suffering from health problems at the time. I met this lady in 2007 just after I moved to San Ramon. I was shocked that this happened in San Ramon. Crime is everywhere and you are kidding yourself if you think you are perfectly safe in any community.

Carolyn C says

Don't forget that Oakland's home prices took a tremendous hit during the down turn. So it would make sense that the increases would be just as dramatic on the way back up.

That assumes that going back to the bubble highs makes sense. I am not sure I buy that premise.

Miike says

Um.... that tremendous down turn was a down turn from the biggest bubble in our history. Why would it make sense that prices increases as dramatically as it fell from a bubble???

Exactly.

Carolyn C says

Oakland is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The bad PR comes from those that don't live in the area.

That is like saying that even someone who is dying of cancer may laugh at a good joke. Sure it isn't as bad as people say, but is it really "good"?

Carolyn C says

Crime is everywhere and you are kidding yourself if you think you are perfectly safe in any community.

That is such a ridiculous point. The question to answer is this, "Is much more crime worse than a little bit of crime?" Hmmm, I am stumped by what the answer might be…

Welcome to Oakland, more violent crime per capita than EPA! Sure, not EVERYONE is assaulted and I guess that isn't "that bad".

You little girls haven't told us what hick town you are all from.
It sounds to me like you are saying Oakland is unlivable. And yet there is a whole class of people above yourselves that continue to live in this city.

Wow.. this thread has really turned into Oakland fans vs. detractors.

I feel that Oakland has a lot to offer and there are plenty of great areas to live.

I will admit, if and when I live over there I definitely will be a little more aware of my surroundings.

When I am out driving I probably won't want to piss off any homies in their hoopdies (some of the freeways are a little mad max - I try to avoid 880 whenever I can).

Without question, I would avoid certain areas at night (much like I don't ever venture into SOMA at midnight on a weekend).

But, overall I think the crime situation in Oak is exaggerated and over-emphasized. I don't plan on living near International BLVD or in East Oakland, or, for that matter, even in North Oakland.

My favorite area is Grand Ave/Lakeshore. I also wouldn't mind living near the Ashby BART (preferably east of that area).

Carolyn C says

My home has never been broken into.

Obviously, because you are still here to type. Oakland isn't a place where there is high petty crime. It is a place where this is high violent crimes. The B&E is just an excuse so the criminals can pistol whip the owners. I blame Sega.

I lived in Piedmont for a summer, and I have a friend who lives around Mills College.

Both places are a paradise of gentle breezes, cool fogs, and blazing sunlight with great views of the Bay.

When I visit my friend, however, there are always an amazing array of scuzzie scuzzballs and street corner ranting psychos around. You see the hard, predatory stares from people on the street, but don't stare back because you don't know who's packing. Makes Santa Cruz look sane.

He doesn't take a lot of walks in his own neighborhood, has a few immediate neighbors who watch out for each other, and an advanced alarm system.

I have another friend who moved to Dublin from Oakland. He said he got tired because he and his kids just couldn't keep anything around the house that wasn't routinely stolen.

Here is where I live:

http://pacifica.patch.com/groups/police-and-fire/p/pacifica-makes-list-of-100-safest-cities-in-america

I didn't mean to imply that no one had a happy life in Oakland, but the violent crime is a BIG DEAL. Also, the idea that it would make sense that prices that fell quick would rise just as quickly worked me up a little.

Pacifica has its own issues. The crime rate isn't really one of them.

bg says

Pacifica has its own issues. The crime rate isn't really one of them.

I my mind, Pacifica should have home prices about 10x that of Oakland. I wouldn't live in Oakland if the housing costs were 1% of my salary. That is just me.

Now you guys are sounding more reasonable. I don't like the crime either. In my neighborhood people walk their dogs routinely. And yes I had some flowers taken from just off the street in front of my house not yet planted. How lame is that. I don't get the predatory stare downs like you guys do maybe because I'm a woman. I have noticed that happened with my husband and his friend while driving a couple of times. My hubbie just blows it off and doesn't even notice. Could be a male challenge thing. Over all my neighborhood is very nice and quiet. It is not the rich part of Oaklnd nor the poor part. Middle of the road. That could have some part in why I haven't been robed. Nor my neighbor in the 14 yrs she has lived there. I live a simple life. No night clubbing. I have to say honestly Oakland is a very beautiful city. And not the monster people make it out to be. But I was told before I moved to Oakland that it's all about the neighborhood.

Carolyn C says

What part of the city did your friends live?

575 63rd ST at Shattuck. Mostly seemed like a pretty nice neighborhood but obviously wasn't or was being targeted by burglars.

One of the incidents of someone breaking into their house was interrupted by a neighbor. Sounds like a great deal. What a great neighbor! Until they found out the neighbor had used a hand gun to chase off the burglar!

I also know they didn't report the last break-in to the police because they were planning to sell the house and didn't want the police report to show up. You do what you have to do. I don't blame them. I considered it great insight into what buying a house can get you into. No, thanks.

FT said: What a great neighbor! Until they found out the neighbor had used a hand gun to chase off the burglar!
The neighbor didn't happen to be Patrick McCullough, did it? Note from the article: A three-bedroom home about two blocks away recently sold for $731,000 after receiving 43 offers.

EBGuy says

The neighbor didn't happen to be Patrick McCullough, did it?

Ha, don't think so. Pretty sure this was someone right next door. You can imagine how my friends made-out selling that place and moving to Georgia. They couldn't believe the palatial options available to them when buying a house there.

bgamall4 said: The banks are buying by giving investment companies and private equity firms huge lines of credit to go in and jack up the prices.
Local player Waypoint just went public this past week.
"We have a $500 million (line of) credit closing shortly and $100 million of cash, so we have plenty of dry powder," he said.

edvard2 says

Carolyn C says

Oakland is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. The bad PR comes from those that don't live in the area.

I agree. I spend a lot of weekend in Oakland. Its like anywhere else. There's good parts and bad parts. The same holds true in SF.

Agree, there are good and bad parts. Whenever the Chronicle reports crime in Oakland, they say "Oakland" instead of identifying the neighborhood it happened in (usually one of the ghetto ones). When there is crime in San Francisco, they name the specific neighborhood (e.g. Bayview or Tenderloin).

The other thing about crime in Oakland is that it's often criminal-on-criminal crime (gang/drug stuff). In San Francisco, the crime more often involves innocents and is often in the nice areas too (especially since some of the nicer areas have projects located within them or nearby).

The worst parts of Oakland are:
1) West Oakland waterfront/5th St to West MacArthur.
2) East Oakland around International in the 20s, between High and Seminary (about 40-60), and deep East Oakland from 70th Ave and further on the west side of Bancroft -- I'm talking about the neighborhood "East Oakland," not literally the eastern part of Oakland, which is nicer
3) the small part in the north near Berkeley from about 40th to Alcatraz between Telegraph/CA-24 and San Pablo -- the 575 63rd property mentioned above is in this area

Outside of those areas, it's not bad, although the East Oakland area in the flats is huge. If you're in the eastern parts in the hills and places like Rockridge, Montclair, Claremont, it's fine. The hills probably have some of the nicest homes in the Bay Area.

It's funny, as bgamall4 said, because certain parts of Berkeley are almost as much of a craphole as Oakland in many ways and never get the same bad rap, likely because of the university and the fact that the Berkeley Hills are as nice as the Oakland Hills. That crappy area of north Oakland runs right into the crapholes of Berkeley. The schools in Berkeley are just about as terrible as Oakland, only people who live in the People's Republic of Berkeley are proud of them because of their diversity.

conrtorllio ranted: The schools in Berkeley are just about as terrible as Oakland, only people who live in the People's Republic of Berkeley are proud of them because of their diversity.
Now, now... In my child's demographic group, kids score as well at they do in Albany, Orinda or even Cupertino. YMMV.

EBGuy says

conrtorllio ranted: The schools in Berkeley are just about as terrible as Oakland, only people who live in the People's Republic of Berkeley are proud of them because of their diversity.

Now, now... In my child's demographic group, kids score as well at they do in Albany, Orinda or even Cupertino. YMMV.

Translation: my rich white/Asian elementary school kid is doing just fine.

Not picking on you, EBGuy, as I generally respect your opinion. It's just that I know a lot of people who went to Cal and either volunteered or tried to volunteer at Berkeley public schools, and the phrase that keeps being repeated is "heads up their asses." The school district is a bit dysfunctional, even if the kids who were already going to do alright are doing alright.

corntrollio says

Outside of those areas, it's not bad, although the East Oakland area in the flats is huge. If you're in the eastern parts in the hills and places like Rockridge, Montclair, Claremont, it's fine. The hills probably have some of the nicest homes in the Bay Area.

The problem with the nicer areas is that you have to drive through the other parts coming and going.

Carolyn C says

My experience is that Oakland is not as bad as the media reports. Does Oakland have crime? Yes. Is Oakland the safest place in the world. NO. Is Oakland perfect? No. Does Oakland have a lot to offer. Yes. Please tell me what city in America is crime free. I met a lady that was held at gun point in San Ramon Rite Aid if I remember correctly along with others. The cashier dialed 411 instead of 911. So the lady said she ran out of the store because she knew help was not coming. The men chased her down and kicked her badly for running. She was suffering from health problems at the time. I met this lady in 2007 just after I moved to San Ramon. I was shocked that this happened in San Ramon. Crime is everywhere and you are kidding yourself if you think you are perfectly safe in any community.

Zactly how I feel about my stomping grounds. You can get your ass shot off, sure, or be taken hostage in your own home, or have someone start pounding on your door and all the windows in the middle of the night...all that shit happens around here, but it doesn't happen on Jody's street, so...pffffuck it: Shangri-la.

Prices here have also more than doubled since the slouch. We have drones, also.

Controllio said it perfectly. And yes the school district sucks! Except in the wealthiest neighborhoods. I wish I were rich enough to send my kids to private. Then I would have the best of both worlds.