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Local Observation

By joshuatrio follow joshuatrio   2014 Mar 12, 11:52am 1,979 views   4 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    

Not sure if this is a sign of things to come, but I think we are seeing another downturn in real estate. Hopefully, a second leg down.

For the past couple years, when I'd previously browse MLS, every single house was contingent or pending... Now the large majority of homes are "active."

I'm optimistic that homes will return to affordable levels, at the same time, I'm content renting. Either way, it was nice to see so many active listings.

Edit: While inventory is limited (as we all have noticed), the bidding wars seem to have died down.


1   Wildebeest   ignore (0)   2014 Mar 12, 2:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The salesperson at our lumber yard in the Seattle/Everett area told me that her company just professionally assessed the forward looking demand for building materials this spring summer so they know how much materials to order and stock for the next few months and maybe get better buys by purchasing now.

The people that advise the purchasing agents are predicting flat to down demand for building materials for the spring/summer months around these parts.
The lumber yard decided not to purchase too much materials in light of this anticipated lack of demand.

Also, according to the lumber yard sales rep. many of the small builders around here are starting to have problems unloading their flips and spec homes the last couple of months.

Inventory is SLOWLY starting to build here, but it will take a while longer to get up to the supposed 6 months of inventory level many claim is a healthy market.

Having been in this business for 30 years and having to "get it sold" before the economic door closes in the past and the stress that accompanies it, I would be VERY cautious about getting too confident that things are as robust as many try to imply.

Some day this war is gonna end......

2   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2014 Mar 13, 1:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Wildebeest says

Also, according to the lumber yard sales rep. many of the small builders around here are starting to have problems unloading their flips and spec homes the last couple of months.

Thanks for the feedback. I've seen listings that are overpriced, and in the description, it states "quick, easy flip, home sold as is." Made me chuckle, since all the flip money seems to have left the market.

I hope these people get caught with their pants down. And that this really is nothing more than a dead cat bounce.

3   Wildebeest   ignore (0)   2014 Mar 13, 11:35am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It has been my experience that the seller of a "flip to be" does better than the buyer of it in many many circumstances.

Another thing that bothers me is the way many flippers claim they make $ "X" by rehabbing a property but they NEVER account for paying themselves a wage for all of the work that they do.

"WOW! I made $10,000 profit on this flip ,but I never took a wage even though I worked my tail off for over 6 months. Look at me!!!"

Budgets need to be put together as if EVERYONE working on the job gets a paycheck, even if the person performing the certain jobs gets paid at the sale.

All job costs should be accounted for as if a stranger is charging you to do the work.

I don't want the small guys to get caught with their pants down. It is painful and I have been there before myself.
Banks and the big guys are a different story though. I hope they crash and burn.

4   Ceffer   ignore (5)   2014 Mar 13, 12:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Four posts and the real estate lobby euphoria bell ringers haven't chimed in?

Did they run out of internet ink for their charts pointing ever upward?

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