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Starter Homes seeing soaring demand - What recession?

By Strategist following x   2014 Jun 29, 6:59am 16,187 views   38 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-25/starter-homes-in-demand-with-builder-lgi-shares-soaring.html

Cheryl Pate-Yow rushed to LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH)’s sales office south of Houston the day after receiving a mailer that said she could own a new home for $689 a month, only $24 more than rent on her one-bedroom apartment.

“I’m sick and tired of renting and my money goes nowhere,” Pate-Yow, a 46-year-old former chef, said during a visit to LGI’s Hall Park community showroom. “I didn’t think I could afford to own, but I got this flier in the mail.”

1   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 7:01am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Even millenials are starting to buy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-24/millennials-seen-surging-as-homeowners-in-u-s-mortgages.html

Dustin Taylor, who’s burdened with $50,000 of student debt after getting his master’s degree in government at Johns Hopkins University, is waiting tables at a comedy club to pay the rent.

Taylor said his desire to get a mortgage to buy a home within five years is no joke.

“Home ownership is out of reach for me,” said Taylor, 33, who’s been looking for a job in Washington since he graduated in December. “Renting is fine for now, but I want to own a home for all of the cliched reasons.”

2   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 7:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This from the article stands out:
It's cheaper to buy, and 93% want to be homeowners.

"For those who can qualify for a mortgage, buying is now 38 percent cheaper than renting, according to San Francisco-based Trulia, an online real estate information firm. Among young renters, 93 percent want to be homeowners someday, based on a company survey late last year."

3   Philistine   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 7:08am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

In markets where a house is "only" $200k or less, absolutely. But not everybody wants to work in oil or healthcare.

Ain't there one damn song that can make me . . . break down and cry-yy?

4   HydroCabron   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 29, 7:12am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

“I’m sick and tired of renting and my money goes nowhere,”

Just remember the difference, kids:

1) Money paid to a landlord is money down the drain.
2) Money spend on interest, property taxes, and maintenance on a depreciating asset is money well spent, on a stunning executive travertine home!

5   Bubbabeefcake   ignore (4)   2014 Jun 29, 7:52am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

.......according to interviews with about a dozen economists and housing analysts.

I am LMFAO!!!

6   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 8:52am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

she could own a new home for $689 a month, only $24 more than rent on her one-bedroom apartment.

If she thinks $24 is the only difference in cost, she's in for a RUDE awakening...

My colleague's friend had a burst pipe last winter and they were out of town. The whole basement was wrecked.

7   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 9:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Laugh all you want guys.....they are buying and getting desperate. 93%. WOW.

8   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 9:33am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

$120,000 for a home does not sound like rising prices to me.
Slow wage growth is a joke because the minimum wage is going to $15.00 per hour.
Only thing left to solve is the tight mortgage standards. The banks are just waiting for someone to give them the signal to loan money, and that's when the panic buying starts.
You go from 27% to 28% to 29% all the way to 50%. Just wait and see.

9   Bubbabeefcake   ignore (4)   2014 Jun 29, 10:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Notice that they see the magical fairy from the sky will come down and give people money and jobs LOL! in the future.

So this is just another shill advertisement from the association of realtors and home builders that growth is just around the corner and the kids will be the new customers.

10   Bubbabeefcake   ignore (4)   2014 Jun 29, 10:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Slow wage growth is a joke because the minimum wage is going to $15.00 per hour.

Are you drinking that wine again??

R.E. Koolaid.....

11   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 11:06am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

sbh says

Strategist says

the minimum wage is going to $15.00 per hour.

Don't bet on it. Bailing out TBTF and QE is merely crony capitalism, but raising the minimum wage is against god's law. I'll believe it when I see it. Nobody hates the beneficiaries of such a wage increase more than the ones grinding away just above it, and THOSE voters will promptly swell with resentment when the Koch brothers tell them the great unwashed are getting an undeserved promotion. As ever for the Tea Party, the generals are a handful of oligarchs, while the foot-soldiers are the ones busting a gut in the trenches against their brothers. There are buckets of blood to be spilt before the reality has a fighting chance.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Slow wage growth is a joke because the minimum wage is going to $15.00 per hour.

Are you drinking that wine again??

Bubbabear says

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Slow wage growth is a joke because the minimum wage is going to $15.00 per hour.

Are you drinking that wine again??

R.E. Koolaid.....

cough cough cough. Once it starts, it never stops.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/06/09-seattle-15-minimum-wage-good-idea-burtless

The Seattle city council voted to push up the city’s minimum wage to $15 an hour. If the wage hike is fully implemented, it will guarantee Seattle’s workers the nation’s highest minimum wage. The increase in the minimum wage will be phased in over a number of years. Big employers that do not provide their employees a health plan are the first that will face the $15 per hour minimum, a requirement that will be fully phased in around 2017. Large employers who offer health benefits will have to pay the $15 minimum starting in 2018. Small businesses with employees who receive tip income will have to pay the $15 per hour minimum a couple of years later, but the countable wage will include employees’ tips. By 2021 all employers in the city must offer a minimum wage of $15 an hour, regardless of the employer’s size.

12   JH   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 11:14am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Wait, what??

Strategist says

Home ownership is out of reach for me,” said Taylor, 33

Strategist says

but I want to own a home

Strategist says

93 percent want to be homeowners someday

Ok, so millennials want homes that are out of reach for them because....

Dustin Taylor, who’s burdened with $50,000 of student debt

and

This group suffered the most during the 18-month recession starting in December 2007

and

he average annual earnings, adjusted for inflation, of Americans from 18 to 34 who worked full-time fell by about 5 percent from 2007 to 2012

and

Young Americans from 25 to 32 with at least a bachelor’s degree and working full-time earn a median annual income of $45,500,

Therefore:

Banks will become more flexible on lending requirements

The real story is this:
18 to 35 year olds want to buy houses but can't...unless lending restrictions are loosened so they can borrow with shitty credit scores and 10X their annual income.

I don't know what you are reading into this story that is good news for bulls. Want doesn't translate to do if one can't.

13   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 11:27am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

cough cough cough. Once it starts, it never stops.

Let us know when $15 minimum wage makes it to Orange County..

Here's a heads up:

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2014/05/05/california-rep-raise-state-minimum-wage-to-26-an-hour/

California Rep: Raise State Minimum Wage To ‘$26 An Hour’
Benjamin Fearnow
May 5, 2014 6:15 AM

14   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 11:33am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

cough cough cough. Once it starts, it never stops.

Let us know when $15 minimum wage makes it to Orange County..

Here's a heads up:

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2014/05/05/california-rep-raise-state-minimum-wage-to-26-an-hour/

California Rep: Raise State Minimum Wage To ‘$26 An Hour’

Benjamin Fearnow

May 5, 2014 6:15 AM

If that happens in California I'm moving out. I don't want to live in a State full of crazy politicians, who will destroy this state.
I might come to New Jersey, right next to you.
They have propane.

15   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 12:41pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

I might come to New Jersey, right next to you.

NJ has the highest property tax rates in the nation. On top of that they have a state income tax.

16   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 12:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says

Strategist says

I might come to New Jersey, right next to you.

NJ has the highest property tax rates in the nation. On top of that they have a state income tax.

What? Oh my God
I think I'll move to Florida right next to Captain.

17   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 12:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

lostand confused says

Strategist says

I might come to New Jersey, right next to you.

NJ has the highest property tax rates in the nation. On top of that they have a state income tax.

But housing costs are 1/3 of the SFBA....

So, which would you prefer??

I moved out from CA to the Midwest. The problem with Midwest states and NJ and tX is that unlike CA, property taxes are not fixed. When you buy in CA, you can plan ahead -mortgage and tax will stay the same. Here you could be paying 5,000 a year and in 5 years it will be 12,000 a year in taxes. if you lose your job-you are stuck with high taxes. Planning/budget is tough.

Now of course what you get for your money is much different in the Midwest-but NJ I don't know the market well enough. I would think places like the east bay would be equivalent??

18   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 1:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Well, your mortgage payment might stay the same but the payment amount would be three times what it would be in NJ...

So a $1300./month payment in NJ would be a $3900./month payment in CA..

CA went berserk only recently. You could easily buy a decent home below 400k in the early 2000s or before-when the job market was raging and anyone with a pulse could land a nice gig.

For anyone who bought a home then and has a nice job-that is still the best palce to be. Your tax rates are set and you have nice weather. now you are looking for a 800-900k price tag for a shack -it makes no sense-especially since the job market is not all that great.

TX or FL are probably far better than NJ. TX at least has a nice job market and no income taxes. property taxes are high-but I think lower than NJ as are home prices and you don't deal with the winters.

19   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 1:39pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

lostand confused says

TX or FL are probably far better than NJ. TX at least has a nice job market and no income taxes. property taxes are high-but I think lower than NJ as are home prices and you don't deal with the winters.

After the past winter we had, FL or TX looked mighty tempting... But, what the hell, I look at shoveling snow as forced exercise!!!

I don't know about TX, but looking at FL and CA, the property sizes are smaller than what is normally available here in NJ. I'd go crazy on a 4000-5000 sq. ft lot.

Also, I took a quick look around at taxes in Orange County versus here and it seemed for similar square foot houses, the taxes weren't all that different. The big difference (like I mentioned above) is the house price...

I always thought New Jersey was up there in home prices.

20   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 1:52pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

I always thought New Jersey was up there in home prices.

Like every other state, you have pockets that run high or low, but according to NJAR, Average Sales Price statewide is $400K, while Median Sales Price is $308K...

Who knows how they calculate that???

Big difference between average and median in New Jersey.
Hey, aren't you supposed to be in your pajamas by now?

21   swebb   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 29, 3:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

Yep, I wish I knew how they calculate those numbers...

Are you saying you wish you knew what data they used to calculate that, or you want to know how to determine average and median?

I'm not sure how that spread compares to the rest of the world, but it doesn't seem out of whack to me.

22   mmmarvel   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 29, 8:27pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

NJ has the highest property tax rates in the nation. On top of that they have a state income tax.

But housing costs are 1/3 of the SFBA....

So, which would you prefer??

And Texas the housing costs are about 1/5 of SFBA, we do have high property taxes but no income tax. Course you'll miss out on the toxic waste in NJ, but you have to give up something.

23   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 29, 11:29pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says

My colleague's friend had a burst pipe last winter and they were out of town. The whole basement was wrecked.

Always cut the water supply at the main when on vacation!

24   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 2:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

The Seattle city council voted to push up the city’s minimum wage to $15 an hour.

$15 /hr is about $30K/yr, a bit short to buy a $120K house.
$26/hr in California will leave you sleeping in your car there.

I want to see homes built for $120K. In California I see new homes going more into the $800K-$1+M zone. Builders are still focusing on the top of the market.

25   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 2:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Raising minimum wages is good for the US economy taken in isolation. However in any global profession like software engineering will not see good wage growth because companies prefer investing in low cost countries.

Because of this, the idea that overall wages will suddenly start growing is fantasy. It will still take years for other countries to catch up enough so US wages can grow.

In the meantime this leaves the US with a gap between wages and the entry level in the housing ponzi.

Optimism is nice, up to a point...

26   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 30, 3:01am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

Cheryl Pate-Yow rushed to LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH)’s

PE of almost 42 is too high for me!

27   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 30, 3:03am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Call it Crazy says

If she thinks $24 is the only difference in cost, she's in for a RUDE awakening...

Article also states:
Each week, the company blankets apartment complexes and single-family rentals near its eight Houston communities with 12,000 mailers, said Brian Batten, vice president of sales for the Houston area. The fliers, which ask, ‘Tired of Renting?,’ highlight the monthly cost more than the asking price. They exclude tax and insurance, which can cost hundreds of dollars more.

28   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 3:05am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

The Seattle city council voted to push up the city’s minimum wage to $15 an hour.

$15 /hr is about $30K/yr, a bit short to buy a $120K house.

$26/hr in California will leave you sleeping in your car there.

I want to see homes built for $120K. In California I see new homes going more into the $800K-$1+M zone. Builders are still focusing on the top of the market.

Tough to build a house for less then $120,000 in California. Maybe the deserts?

29   HydroCabron   ignore (1)   2014 Jun 30, 3:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

zzyzzx says

PE of almost 42 is too high for me!

What are you, some kinda coward?

30   Diva24   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 30, 4:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

$120,000 for a home does not sound like rising prices to me.

Slow wage growth is a joke because the minimum wage is going to $15.00 per hour.

Only thing left to solve is the tight mortgage standards. The banks are just waiting for someone to give them the signal to loan money, and that's when the panic buying starts.

You go from 27% to 28% to 29% all the way to 50%. Just wait and see.

$15 an hour doesn't even cover one person's rent.

31   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 4:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

Tough to build a house for less then $120,000 in California. Maybe the deserts?

If you start building too many houses for less than $200K in CA, you will collapse the price structure there.

Taxes revenues will shrink and the state will fall back into crisis.

No, millenials have to live in tent cities. There's no other way.

32   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 5:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Tough to build a house for less then $120,000 in California. Maybe the deserts?

If you start building too many houses for less than $200K in CA, you will collapse the price structure there.

Taxes revenues will shrink and the state will fall back into crisis.

No, millenials have to live in tent cities. There's no other way.

You can't build for that low of a price in the most desired areas. The land alone costs a lot more.
It's not gonna happen, it's mathematically impossible, no way Jose, not a chance.
You have to move.

33   JH   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 30, 5:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

Tough to build a house for less then $120,000 in California. Maybe the deserts?

Beautiful Barstow...

1545 Piute St, Barstow, CA 92311
3 beds, 2 baths, 1,000 sqft
For Sale
$54,000
Zestimate®: $66,091
Est. Mortgage:
$205/mo
Get Pre-Approved on Zillow

GREAT POTENTIAL. THIS 3 BEDROOMS 2 IS A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH COME TAKE A LOOK YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED Brokered And Advertised By: Ocean Valley Realty Listing Agent: Arturo Soto

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1545-Piute-St-Barstow-CA-92311/17275354_zpid/

34   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 5:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

You can't build for that low of a price in the most desired areas. The land alone costs a lot more.

That's the problem millennials are facing.

35   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 5:30am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JH says

Strategist says

Tough to build a house for less then $120,000 in California. Maybe the deserts?

Beautiful Barstow...

1545 Piute St, Barstow, CA 92311

3 beds, 2 baths, 1,000 sqft

For Sale

$54,000

Zestimate®: $66,091

Est. Mortgage:

$205/mo

Get Pre-Approved on Zillow

GREAT POTENTIAL. THIS 3 BEDROOMS 2 IS A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH COME TAKE A LOOK YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED Brokered And Advertised By: Ocean Valley Realty Listing Agent: Arturo Soto

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1545-Piute-St-Barstow-CA-92311/17275354_zpid/

Ha ha ha. That's a dump built in 1964, in a junky neighborhood.
Even my dog won't go in that hole.
Ofcourse, in San Francisco, it's worth $800,000 with 7 offers.

36   JH   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 30, 5:30am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says

If you start building too many houses for less than $200K in CA, you will collapse the price structure there.

Taxes revenues will shrink and the state will fall back into crisis.

I don't believe a collapse of price structure would ruin the state. First of all, any cursory search of homes in any given area shows that many, many people are paying taxes well below the 1% rate due to prop 13. Therefore, a drop of even half the home value will not result in lower tax rates for many. And if a large-scale price collapse occurred, well, cancel prop 13 and raise the rates over 1% like everyone else in America.

However, the opposite might be true, that a ruined economy could collapse the price structure. But as long as the Fed infuses cash to the top, it will "trickle down" to investors bidding up prices and charging high rents to cover the stupid prices they pay for shit shacks.

37   Strategist   ignore (2)   2014 Jun 30, 5:31am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

You can't build for that low of a price in the most desired areas. The land alone costs a lot more.

That's the problem millennials are facing.

I agree. I worry for my children.

38   JH   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 30, 5:32am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says

Ofcourse, in San Francisco, it's worth $800,000 with 7 offers.

Ha, I know, it's bigger than my current rental! Location...


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