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t seems that E-man and a few others want to use THEIR "exceptions" in the market as the "rule".
That is what bothers me. Kudos for making the gains but you have to talk the next generation of investors into buying for the bulk (capital) of your gains to be realized. What is the best way to do that? Convince them your gains are permanent (the new paradigm for investment).
All the talk sounds exactly like 2005.
You can't just turn a home into an ATM or a winning investment. You know that.
Yes you can, home values always go up, so when it goes up from 800K to 1.3M, get the 500K equity out and buy stocks and you would be millionaire. If you don't buy then you will never have that 500K to play with. :)
I wouldn't buy a home now if I could afford one. The prices are unrealistic in NYC where I come from and I can't imagine them going higher, when wages have been dropping or stagnating for most so where are these buyers coming from unless they bring subprime back? Most I know spend almost 50% of their income renting, and these are college educated people who work in finance, information technology and other good paying fields. I have very few friend who can make the numbers and DTI is usually what kills their chances...
e-man, sface, icloud15, strategist...
Buy this scenario or think is BS? Pse don't talk about 2009-2012, we're in Aug 2014. Should buy or rent now? Should we be leveraged or not?
If you are staying for 10+ years and get prime rates, then there is little risk to buying.
If you are looking to flip or rent, better make sure the cash flow supports it long term.
I look at WFB HOI index. locally, we are in the more unaffordable range bewteen 6% and 32%. It is around 12% now. Nationally is more affordable and in the middle range so it is damn if you do and damn if you don't.
The economy is just starting to heat up as can be discerned from job gains recently. The damn thing is the interest rate is priced like a recession and depending on local, it can be hot or cold. So in the bay area, we have a hot economy but interest rate like a recession. Inflation is starting to pick up and wage increase will be demanded in the next3 years.
There is an interest rate risk, as q quick prime rate increase will damage housing locally. But this is the fed which is as predictable as the morning sun, it'll be pushed back just as usual.
housing has been underbuilt since 2010 which works in favor of owning land. In 2004, some 2M homes were consructed, now it is half of that for a medium period. I don't see a slash and burn scenerio like 2006 as none of the elements applicabel then are even remotely visible now. the homebuilders has decided to pursue margins over volume which is disasterous to a prospective buyer and that will not change the rest of this decade.
If you are staying for 10+ years and get prime rates, then there is little risk to buying.
You have no basis for writing that statement. You either mean it's always been safe to buy for ten years(tell that to people who bought in 1999) or you're predicting the future for the next ten years(good luck).
One other thing to note is that, home prices in the fortress barely budged during the Great Recession.
Another reason houses are bad investments. Stock prices got killed and were a great buy because people think of stocks as more risky than houses. Past data supports the opposite.
These millions are paper gains until you sell. I would challenge you all to sell at the prices you think the homes/apts are worth...who would you plan to sell to? The next investor? You are grossed out by that guy who flipped the apt from 1.6M to 2.2M. You are not going to play the greater fool...maybe someone else will...who knows. Dividends are real...I'll give you that.
Actually, I pulled out over $430k tax-free from some of my investment properties earlier this year so some of that gains have been realized. Thanks to massive rent increases in the last 3 years. I will continue to do so, but there's not much opportunity out there to deploy the cash. In fact, I don't intend to sell any of them and pay the taxes. I would rather extract the money tax-free and reinvest it where I see opportunities.
$2.28M is aggressive. I believe it will end up selling for around $2.1M. If you know what's wrong with the building and why the seller is selling, I bet you can get it for $1.95M. Last year when he bought it, the average rents were $880/unit. He brought them up to $1,230 average, which could be increased again to $1,325 in May next year. So no doubt they are selling the potential. The average rents for a 1-bedroom unit in that area is around $1,450/month. The buyer for this building will be a 1031 Exchange person, who is looking to trade into a better asset class from a lower class area such as Hayward or Gilroy.
This was another building that we offered and didn't get early this year. It went to a 1031 Exchange buyer who sold his apartment building in Hayward and traded for this. $1.98M all cash and close in 10 days. How do you beat that?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/436-Clinton-St-94062/home/2021871
My second career started at 35. I frequently moved before that. My kids are (as of 2 weeks ago) all in school now. Thus our family dynamic radically changed right about now, and we are settled. We could have bought 3 years ago, but FHA made homes expensive, and I didn't believe they had reached a peak of affordability. Over the past 30 years, OC homes have seen great gains (with the usual boom-bust cycles playing a part). However, I did not anticipate the extent of pandering by the government (read bank bailouts and low rates) or manipulation by the banks (restricted distressed inventory) to prevent housing from hitting a bottom. Based on my own calculations of the previous years, affordability, and taking into account that OC is a high demand area, I still believed it was 20% overpriced in 2011.
Well, if you're not ready, you're not ready. Kind of like you don't know what you don't know.
So history indicated that OC housing market has outperformed other markets. What's the likelihood that it will continue to outperform other markets again in the future? My guess is that it's likely.
Regardless of how overpriced you and I believe, it's irrelevant. The market dictates it. By knowing how the market behaved in the past, we can predict the future with some accuracy. No guarantee, but it gives us an edge compared to the average Joe. By being on this site, I expect the readers has better knowledge about the housing market than the average buyer. However, it's unfortunate that some of us missed the bottom of the housing market. This is why I believe the bears or perma-bears owe these people an apology. In fact, an apology may not cut it IMO. The damage has been done.
Investors are already fleeing OC in favor of inland areas. Stockton is starting to see investors now (sound familiar?). There was a short window for investors...it's always a short window for them. Kudos for getting in while you could...keep up the hope that RE will "neutral" to 5-7%. I did those calculations when I bought 10 years ago. Didn't work out that way, and I ate a good chunk of cash.
Newbie investors are fleeing OC in favor of inland IMO. This is a mistake. This tells you this is the beginning of the market run-up. When the clueless Joe is buying rentals, we're done. That's the top. We're not there yet.
Since you're in Socal, listen to Bruce Norris. He is considered the oracle of real estate by the real estate investment community. Bruce told his followers to buy real estate in 1997, sell them in the 1st quarter of 2006, an then buy them again in 2011. The 32% HAI is for CA. That number was published in June of this year by Bruce. He didn't do a specific study for the Bay Area.
Actually, I pulled out over $430k tax-free from some of my investment properties earlier this year so some of that gains have been realized. Thanks to massive rent increases in the last 3 years. I will continue to do so, but there's not much opportunity out there to deploy the cash. In fact, I don't intend to sell any of them and pay the taxes. I would rather extract the money tax-free and reinvest it where I see opportunities.
You could buy more properties and leverage yourself. You could also buy homebuilder stocks. Housing is not gonna reach a peak until home building reaches a peak.
You see RE as an investment, but most of the middle class sees it as 4 walls and a roof.
At the end of the day, this matters most. Unfortunately, many people got sucked into the "belief" that their house was an "investment" that will make them rich. We know that's not the case the majority of the time...
In fact, for every property that E-man and others bought at Fire-sale prices, there was someone else who lost their shirt on the same property. Go ask those people how great their "investment" was!
If they bought at the peak and sold at the bottom, they were basically trend followers. Time to buy is when there is "blood on the streets" and time to sell is when the gardeners are snapping up everything they can. They exact timing of anything is just a matter of luck.
Limited capital. Like many others, I was an average Joe in the Silicon Valley holding a low 6 figures engineering job.
Quitting my job to pursue real estate was the best decision ever. Bringing in partners was another good move. Like the old saying..... 50% of something is better than 100% of nothing.
Now, my job is to take my daughter to pre K and to pick her up 5 days a week. I own my time and don't have to be anyone's bitch. Money solves a lot of problems you know.
I guess I'll add this to my money/happiness thread.
Regardless of how overpriced you and I believe, it's irrelevant. The market dictates it. By knowing how the market behaved in the past, we can predict the future with some accuracy.
I agree with you here except that a manipulated market is very difficult to predict. I don't see too much similarity in today's market as compared with previous markets. The only exception is that the coastal markets are more expensive than most heartland markets. Demand, space, etc... The market that led to the amazing gains of 1985 to 2005 (or even up to today with some ups and downs) is going to be very difficult to replicate. Today, mortgage rates are low, wages are flat, stocks are very very high. None of this was the case in 1980. You may still see gains in the short term, but I don't see the fundamentals that will support similar long term gains. But if there is one thing we do know...the market is carefully manipulated and too big to fail.
Newbie investors are fleeing OC in favor of inland IMO. This is a mistake. This tells you this is the beginning of the market run-up. When the clueless Joe is buying rentals, we're done. That's the top. We're not there yet.
Blackstone is not newb. I assume they have left OC...most have. The higher end of the market is still doing well and increasing a bit even with some flipping. But I don't see that lasting too long. It's an interesting point, but I don't know that it's true that just newbs are skipping town...
When the clueless Joe is buying rentals, we're done. That's the top. We're not there yet.
Since you're in Socal, listen to Bruce Norris.
Thanks for the reference, I'll look him up...never heard of him.
I agree with you here except that a manipulated market is very difficult to predict. I don't see too much similarity in today's market as compared with previous markets. The only exception is that the coastal markets are more expensive than most heartland markets. Demand, space, etc... The market that led to the amazing gains of 1985 to 2005 (or even up to today with some ups and downs) is going to be very difficult to replicate. Today, mortgage rates are low, wages are flat, stocks are very very high. None of this was the case in 1980. You may still see gains in the short term, but I don't see the fundamentals that will support similar long term gains. But if there is one thing we do know...the market is carefully manipulated and too big to fail.
I believe you are using the wrong fundamentals. Use the following.
1. Employment. Rising and healthy employment are the best indicators for a healthy housing market.
2. Population growth. Reflects what the housing market will be in a given area in the long term.
3. Interest rates. Falling and low interest rates will always spur home buying.
4. Limited Supply. Another long term indicator. Coastal California with it's beautiful climate, tourist attractions, will attract attract the rich from all over the world.
There is a reason why the wealthy don't want to buy in Detroit, but will eagerly buy in Coastal Cal, New York, Hawaii and Miami where prices are unaffordable to the median wage earner.
When you decided not to buy in 2011, you used wages, affordability etc. The ones who are buying have nothing to do with wages or affordability. With the 3.5% down you mentioned in a different post, was the right thing to do. If prices fell further, you had very little to lose, but a lot to gain with no payments for 3 years.
My advise....don't gamble with a home for your family. If a home benefits your family, just go for it.
healthy employment
that's arguable now. but i still think wages are at least as important.
Population
agreed...especially if there is no room to build (ie, #4)
Interest rates. Falling and low interest rates
falling locks in gains, low spurs buying sure. but i don't buy into buy when low rates. i agree with Patrick on that one.
When you decided not to buy in 2011, you used wages, affordability etc.
Well, haha, I used local to convince myself the market was not as low as it could go. But when I decided not to buy, I used my own wages vs. affordability! I couldn't afford it. Well, yeah, at 3.5 maybe, and that indeed was my thought: why risk 20% again? Risking 3.5 is much more reasonable. But we decided all the other costs of ownership were not worth it on a risky purchase (with 4 young children).
My advise....don't gamble with a home for your family. If a home benefits your family, just go for it.
For sure...as for now, renting a SFH with yard and good landlord is just as good as a house, and on my street I am renting for $1800 when homes are listed and selling for $480k. Parity is not there now. But I'm confident it will be back and I'll be ready to buy :) It's just too easy to save now at such a low rental rate for a SFH!
For sure...as for now, renting a SFH with yard and good landlord is just as good as a house, and on my street I am renting for $1800 when homes are listed and selling for $480k. Parity is not there now. But I'm confident it will be back and I'll be ready to buy :) It's just too easy to save now at such a low rental rate for a SFH!
BTW, with 3.5 FHA, that $480k house would cost me $3200/mo plus extra costs of ownership. Same size house (900sf). Mine is $1800. Sure parity was better in 2011, but it's far far away today...and very risky! (not the 3.5 is risky but the extra $1200/mo)
For sure...as for now, renting a SFH with yard and good landlord is just as good as a house, and on my street I am renting for $1800 when homes are listed and selling for $480k. Parity is not there now. But I'm confident it will be back and I'll be ready to buy :) It's just too easy to save now at such a low rental rate for a SFH!
I thought you were renting a condo.
$1,800 rent for a house worth $480,000 is a good value in So Cal. Eventually, your wife will nag you until you buy a home, trust me.
There is a reason why the wealthy don't want to buy in Detroit
Given the fact that Detroit is directly across the river from Windsor Ontario, if one could work remotely for another US city or even work in the 'burbs of Detroit, I'd move to one of the safe Detroit suburbs, buy a home from $100K to $200K, and go to Windsor periodically to see strippers and esc*rts.
There is a reason why the wealthy don't want to buy in Detroit
Given the fact that Detroit is directly across the river from Windsor Ontario, if one could work remotely for another US city or even work in the 'burbs of Detroit, I'd move to one of the safe Detroit suburbs, buy a home from $100K to $200K, and go to Windsor periodically to see strippers and esc*rts.
Ha ha ha. You should move where your favorite escorts and strippers are. What if you are horny and don't have the time to travel around? With a wife you can just jump on her when you feel like.
Ha ha ha. You should move where your favorite escorts and strippers are. What if you are horny and don't have the time to travel around? With a wife you can just jump on her when you feel like.
That is when she's not having a headache.
I guess that within the USA, our options of limited.
You live in let's say Seattle metro, you go for Vancouver BC
Detroit 'burbs (avoid the city at all costs if you want to live) for Windsor Ontario
Buffalo NY for Niagara Falls-to-Toronto Ontario
Plattsburgh NY or Burlington VT for Montreal Quebec
San Diego CA for Tijuana in Baja California
And that's about it. Everything else has a lot of road or air miles.
Ha ha ha. You should move where your favorite escorts and strippers are. What if you are horny and don't have the time to travel around? With a wife you can just jump on her when you feel like.
That is when she's not having a headache.
I guess that within the USA, our options of limited.
You live in let's say Seattle metro, you go for Vancouver BC
Detroit 'burbs (avoid the city at all costs if you want to live) for Windsor Ontario
Buffalo NY for Niagara Falls-to-Toronto Ontario
Plattsburgh NY or Burlington VT for Montreal Quebec
San Diego CA for Tijuana in Baja California
And that's about it. Everything else has a lot of road or air miles.
Ever consider writing a book and setting up web sites? You will get very rich, and all those escorts and hookers would be a tax write off.
I thought you were renting a condo.
$1,800 rent for a house worth $480,000 is a good value in So Cal.
Hells no...family is too big for that. Since we have 1 bath, the boys were potty trained in the backyard :)
We are saving a ton and fairly comfortable while the kids are not yet HS age.
You could buy more properties and leverage yourself. You could also buy homebuilder stocks. Housing is not gonna reach a peak until home building reaches a peak.
Well, I have been doing well with apartment buildings until recently. Deals are hard to come by now.
I ain't gonna gamble on homebuilder stocks. My risk tolerance is quite low.
Not sure if I would agree with your last statement given that the homebuilders got burned really bad this last round and hopefully have learned their lesson.
I guess I'll add this to my money/happiness thread.
Nice. Who said money doesn't buy happiness? Try to have some first. For us, money really really helps. I have been getting out of bed between 9 and 10am every morning. Now that my daughter is back to school, I have to wake up at 8:15am. Why the long face? :--(
I don't see too much similarity in today's market as compared with previous markets. The only exception is that the coastal markets are more expensive than most heartland markets. Demand, space, etc...
Of course you don't see the similarity. Every cycle, it will look and feel different, but we typically end up with the same result. The last bubble was different. It was a once in a lifetime event. I don't expect to see it again in our lifetime. We're gradually getting back to a normal market, where housing will get frothy in prices, but nothing like the last time. The last time was different.
Today, mortgage rates are low, wages are flat, stocks are very very high. You may still see gains in the short term, but I don't see the fundamentals that will support similar long term gains. But if there is one thing we do know...the market is carefully manipulated and too big to fail.
Wages will likely heading up soon if not already IMO. The Bay Area has all indicators of a recovery. We already have wage inflation in the last 12-18 months or so. I'm surprised at how much my tenants and applicants are making now. The same cannot be said about the economy in Washington DC and elsewhere.
Blackstone was also in our market. However, they only bought to flip and that was last year. There's practically no more foreclosures at the courthouse steps. They were buying a lot last year and the later portion of 2012 in several markets where they could achieve a 7% cap rate, but that is no longer the case.
It's the reason I haven't "patricked" in months and would like to undo my account, but I cannot figure out how to do so.
Because the site has become a microcosm of Bay Area Real Estate; it's all about face: keeping face, showing face, in your face.
Face It, it's time to Face The Facts
Limited capital. Like many others, I was an average Joe in the Silicon Valley holding a low 6 figures engineering job.
Quitting my job to pursue real estate was the best decision ever.
This explains why it sucks to be a software engineer in Silly-con Valley. Just like failed actors in Hollywood, most people have been foolishly chasing their dreams of a multi-million dollar IPO while giving away their all hard-earned money to their landlords or banks. Many of them don't realize that their dream is also possible somewhere else.
It's the reason I haven't "patricked" in months and would like to undo my account, but I cannot figure out how to do so.
Because the site has become a microcosm of Bay Area Real Estate; it's all about face: keeping face, showing face, in your face.
Face It, it's time to Face The Facts
It's not all about FACE. It's about trying to get out of the rat race. You think it's easy to leave a "perceived secure" 6 figure job to go into an unknown world and hope to make it? The fact is..... Most of us would love to get off the rat race, but not all of us are willing to make the short-term sacrifice for the potential long-term gain. There were a lot of what ifs.
You and Thomaswong would be a perfect example. You guys were here before most of us. Unfortunately, you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now. Had Patrick bought in Menlo Park back in 1998-1999, there would be no patrick.net now.
Don't hate.
I have been getting out of bed between 9 and 10am every morning. Now that my daughter is back to school, I have to wake up at 8:15am. Why the long face? :--(
I feel so sorry for you.
You guys were here before most of us. Unfortunately, you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now.
That once in a life time opportunity has come and gone. The next one will come in another 80 years.
You and Thomaswong would be a perfect example. You guys were here before most of us. Unfortunately, you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now. Had Patrick bought in Menlo Park back in 1998-1999, there would be no patrick.net now.
Don't hate.
@E-man, Speaking of our old friend Mr. Wong you know how he would tell us about his 1993 purchase in Los Gatos? How he allegedly bought in the last year before "hype" took over in SFBA? Well, as much as this is the posture that he claims now, I was recently looking over an old thread and came across his first comment here and lo and behold, here is what he said:
Here is my sad story and what happened.
I was told to bid 1.5% above each bidder. Which came over 10% asking. I did just that and offer was accepted.
However, i lost my job and backed out of the deal getting back my deposit. The house did sell at asking.
Since then I have been renting.
Since that last experience, I been renting, and waiting, for such practice to be exposed.
So I have to ask, is every bear on Patnet a habitual liar??? Suddenly his whole persona here now made so much more sense. No 20+ year homeowner would have been as perpetually angry as he was - turns out he was lying about his purchase and has been renting the whole time.
No wonder Thomas seemed like such an angry, societal malcontent given that he had really been in his 21st year of renting with no end in sight. Now too it seems like he has gone, 2 months with no posts - apparently he finally realized his "holdout and wait for pre 1993 prices" isn't going to happen and quietly returned to his perma-rental for whatever time is left in his life.
So unbelievable and so sad...
Yea, like OMG the horror of renting
Its like not nearly as uber cool as mortgage debtorship
Yea, like OMG the horror of renting
Heavy stock investors must have the same conversations. What a miserable way to live. It's one thing to be educated but another to be obsessed with every single financial decision you have ever made.
You and Thomaswong would be a perfect example. ...you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon
Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice
and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now. Had
Patrick bought in Menlo Park back in 1998-1999, there would be no patrick.net
now.
See what I mean?, this web site's become all about face, keeping face, making face, losing face, "in your face".
This fella, who doesn't know me, knows what I didn't do ("didn't recognize"),
knows how I feel ("bitter"),
shoulda done ("Had you made"),
knows what I coulda been doing ("you guys would be sitting pretty"),
knows what someone else woulda done ("Had
Patrick bought in Menlo Park ").
Welcome to his smarty pants world.
Welcome to what has become of Patrick's website.
Welcome to what has become of the Bay Area.
See what I mean?, this web site's become all about face, keeping face, making face, losing face, "in your face".
This fella, who doesn't know me, knows what I didn't do ("didn't recognize"),
knows how I feel ("bitter"),
shoulda done ("Had you made"),
knows what I coulda been doing ("you guys would be sitting pretty"),
knows what someone else woulda done ("Had
Patrick bought in Menlo Park ").
Welcome to his smarty pants world.
Welcome to what has become of Patrick's website.
Welcome to what has become of the Bay Area.
That has always been your theme. Everything is about face to you. Your co-workers bought houses in the Fortress, you believe they bought them to save face. Your co-workers drive nice cars, you believe they bought them to save face. Has it ever occur to you that they bought in the Fortress because of better schools? Have you ever considered they drive a nice car because it's much more sturdy than a Civic or your Camry?
People have different priorities in life. You made a choice to buy in East San Jose and was bitter about it when it lost a lot of its value during the downturn while their houses held up in value much better. I don't know if you're bitter that they look down on you because of where you live, but I couldn't careless about other people's opinion. If you have a problem with that, that's your issue.
Apparently, Thomaswong also lied about his purchase in Los Gatos back in the early 90's. Could it be that he tried to "save face" by saying he bought there? Hmm..................... Not sure who are the ones trying to save face here.
Dude,
Your rant says more about you than it says about me.
Thanks for sharing your True Colors!
Dude,
Your rant says more about you than it says about me.
Thanks for sharing your True Colors!
What color is that? You're the one who is having issue with where people choose to buy and live. You're the one that's having problem with what type of cars people drive. Everything is about face to you. Could it be that you're having a self-esteem issue?
Unlike you, I couldn't careless where people want to live or car they drive. I don't give a damn what people think of me and where I live.
The reason people are on Patnet is because they want to know about where we are in the cycle of the housing market. You didn't see the bottom and gave a lot of bad advice through out the years. The same goes for Thomaswong. I respect you two because you two were older. But giving bad advice is.....well, bad advice. It's so true that respect must be earned. It cannot be given. Lesson learned.
I talk to other folks in their 60's and 70's on a regular basis because I don't have a JOB. Some are real estate investors themselves. They give a perspective about the Bay Area since the 60's and 70's. They acknowledge the change and understand why housing prices are where they are. On the other hand, it seems like you and Thomaswong are still living in the past and not receptive to change. Hope and change are what get people out of bed everyday. Fear is what keeps us from getting what we want.
What I have learned is that HOW you think matters. Fear and self doubt are real. However, don't be afraid of them. Respect them, keep going and move past them. Fear and doubt can be bridged with knowledge and insight. People who KNOW this are those who have crossed that river and are standing on the other side.
Since you and Thomas were older, I thought you two would be much wiser, and I could learn from you two. Unfortunately, wisdom doesn't always come with age for everyone. Another lesson learned for me.
I guess I should try to learn from those that have succeeded in the real estate investment arena in the Bay Area instead of listening to two old guys, who even though grew up here, didn't have the foresight and are stuck in the past. Like they said, your attitude determines your altitude. People are where they are in life for a reason.
Good luck to you and Thomas.
While the past can't predict the future, clearly the current status quo is biased towards a rising cost of living in housing.
That's the problem with more dual income families. Once families start to have 2 working members to pay for the house, prices increase. You aren't going to get this kind of a jump again unless society restructures to a 3 income family ownership...
See what I mean?, this web site's become all about face, keeping face, making face, losing face, "in your face".
Dinner?
The 2005-like conversations are nauseating. I don't know why I feel compelled to counter all the bulls. But I feel like I have seen this exact thing in my lifetime...just 10 years ago. "It's different this time." All the buzzwords are on the table. Don't worry guys, when the house of cards falls, you won't be vomiting in your mouth everytime you see a new post on patnet.
You aren't going to get this kind of a jump again unless society restructures to a 3 income family ownership...
That's happening in SFBA! Embarrassed not to provide supporting information but have read a couple articles about how multi-family dwellings are becoming more common here.
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