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Is Racial Profiling Simply a Form of Bayesian Reasoning?

By Peter P follow Peter P   2014 Dec 6, 8:29am 3,029 views   9 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


If that is the case, then racial profiling ought not be restricted in any way.

Let me put it this way. If you have to bet if an arbitrary person has committed a crime, which of the following are relevant or irrelevant?

1. hair color
2. eye color
3. skin color
4. cultural origin
5. religion
6. income

If a piece of information improves your success, wouldn't you want to use it?

#crime

1   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2014 Dec 6, 2:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You forgot REALTORS, BANKSTERS and ASSHOLES!

2   FNWGMOBDVZXDNW   ignore (2)   2014 Dec 6, 7:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Whatever you choose to do in your personal life is up to you.

We do not want our police and government agencies to act this way, because it creates a society in which people of color, poor people, and religious people do not have a fair chance to succeed.

Religious people have it pretty good right now despite the blathering on Faux news. In the past, though, these groups have been persecuted, and it seems that our society is becoming more secular, so going forward, I expect these people to be in the same danger as black and poor people in your scenario.

Plus, when police stop trying to apply Bayesian statistic intuitively, and rely on facts, they make less mistakes. Humans are absolutely horrible at intuitively applying statistics. Absolutely horrible.

3   Rin   ignore (4)   2014 Dec 6, 8:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

YesYNot says

We do not want our police and government agencies to act this way, because it creates a society in which people of color, poor people, and religious people do not have a fair chance to succeed.

[ sarcasm on ]

We need a registry of proper Americans, basically the idea is for fair to medium toned Americans to be assigned as culturally Anglo-Saxon with a religion of Episcopalian/Anglican. As soon as one flashes the 'proper American card', the cops can let the person through a security checkpoint. Everyone else, however, is a suspect and may be interrogated.

[ sarcasm off ]

4   Tenpoundbass   ignore (16)   2014 Dec 7, 12:19am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Racial profiling is just another wonderful word the Liberals put in their Arsenal of Civilization assault.

5   NoCoupForYou   ignore (4)   2014 Dec 7, 12:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Racial Profiling = Bayesian Reasoning is not a new argument.

Found this while reading about The New Republic and it's history, this one goes back to November 1986, about 20 years ago:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=266&dat=19861120&id=-gUxAAAAIBAJ&sjid=guAFAAAAIBAJ&pg=3698,2809029

"This columnist has talked to black cab drivers in Manhattan who say they routinely make such a refusal (to pick up young black men). They are not racist, but intelligent Bayesians."

Bayesian reasoning is a tool. The actual chances of picking up young black men and getting mugged is low. Might be higher than picking up elderly asian ladies, but it's still very low over all. So NOT picking up young black men is still stupid in terms of probability.

6   Shaman   ignore (3)   2014 Dec 7, 1:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

YesYNot says

Whatever you choose to do in your personal life is up to you.

We do not want our police and government agencies to act this way, because it creates a society in which people of color, poor people, and religious people do not have a fair chance to succeed.

Religious people have it pretty good right now despite the blathering on Faux news. In the past, though, these groups have been persecuted, and it seems that our society is becoming more secular, so going forward, I expect these people to be in the same danger as black and poor people in your scenario.

Plus, when police stop trying to apply Bayesian statistic intuitively, and rely on facts, they make less mistakes. Humans are absolutely horrible at intuitively applying statistics. Absolutely horrible.

So, you assume that racial profiling will always find that people of color should be avoided/restricted/arrested because they cause more crime?
Isn't that a very racist position, inherently?
Or are you tacitly acknowledging a REALITY where people of certain colors are ten times more likely to commit crimes?
And which color? To my knowledge, the yellow people (Asians) are far less likely than white people to commit crimes. Jews also.
So who are you talking about, really? C'mon and say your racist statement and out yourself!

7   Tenpoundbass   ignore (16)   2014 Dec 7, 1:48am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

So why does Apple get to Stereotype the French with their latest commercial, "Reservations" where the guys say..."You call me to make a reservation on a computer, you'll never get a table" in a thick French accent. Suggesting that the French are snobs and stuck up and a bit of a soup Natzi?

http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/11/24/apples-latest-iphone-6-ads-focus-on-continuity-gaming-prowess

8   Peter P   ignore (0)   2014 Dec 7, 3:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says

So, you assume that racial profiling will always find that people of color should be avoided/restricted/arrested because they cause more crime?

The real question is whether racial information improves your educated bets.

Police, like anyone else, must act with incomplete information. If profiling can improve the success rate of apprehending the criminals *and* not falsely accusing the innocent then its uses ought not be restricted.

However, it would be sad if racial profiling is curtailed for the arbitrary normative ideal of "equality."

9   Peter P   ignore (0)   2014 Dec 7, 3:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

YesYNot says

We do not want our police and government agencies to act this way, because it creates a society in which people of color, poor people, and religious people do not have a fair chance to succeed.

Or we can simply improve other sources of information. I propose universal surveillance. Every inch of public space should be observable by any person on the internet.

When it is no longer possible to get away with street crimes, racial profiling will be irrelevant.


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