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Are We Heading for Recession or Worse? Mark Skousen | Jan 15, 2016
2016 Jan 15, 8:01am 3,580 views 9 comments
Comments 1 - 9 of 9 Search these comments
indigenous
2016 Jan 15, 8:33am
I don't think so. Maybe a recession but the Gross Ouput graph is quite prescient and at this point is not showing it. Logan of course has endless graphs that say no as well.
indigenous
2016 Jan 15, 8:48am
The US consumer would seem to be driving the economy at the moment.
Does anyone have a Graph,Chart or Poll telling us when a Black Swan will swim up close in the dark.
Dark as in where people reside with their deluuusions.
Tenpoundbass
2016 Jan 15, 9:22am
What would a recession look like for a country doesn't produce shit?
Oh that's right rich investors "over seas" profits are now our GDP.
I'll get my tear making device out.
indigenous
2016 Jan 15, 4:25pm
Or, NOT driving the economy, as the data shows...
January 14, 2016
Conditions will turn around because US consumer spending is upward bound. The housing industry looks strong through the latest data (November) and December Automotive Retail Sales were robust at 9.0% higher than last December. Employment is rising at a healthy clip. Disposable Personal Income is rising. The consumer is driving the US economy higher and the US economy is 59.6% bigger than China’s economy. Long live the US consumer. We are not seeing any trends that will derail the US economy powering the global economy into a better place as we go through 2016, particularly the second half of the year.
https://itreconomics.com/blog/markets-are-slumping-and-expectations-for-china-are-dumping
These guys are pretty good.
Worse. We are headed towards mandatory transgender conversion of the entire population.
indigenous
2016 Jan 15, 9:30pm
Their accuracy record is 94%. Auto sales would indicate they are not tapped out.
indigenous
2016 Jan 17, 5:35am
After six years of rapidly rising U.S. sales, a new reality is settling in on automakers, dealers and suppliers: The road ahead will be much tougher.
So right now auto sales are good, that was my point.
I'm sure the cycle thing is true, but the demographics would indicate the bigger picture is going to be very good for the auto industry.
The financial terrorists are coming out of the woodwork. I recently received a warning from Jim Davidson that the U.S. economy is heading for “imminent collapse.” But it's not just gold bugs who are predicting disaster.
A Merrill Lynch analyst expects a drop in the S&P 500 Index to 1,600, down from around 1,900 now. A Zacks analyst is predicting a recession around the corner.
At the American Economic Association (AEA) meeting Jan. 3-5 in San Francisco, Harvard University's Martin Feldstein, the George F. Baker Professor of Economics, said we were headed for a “financial crisis.” And a European money manager urged its clients to “sell all stocks” in anticipation of a meltdown.
Wall Street does indeed climb a wall of worry. But is there any genuine justification for these scary scenarios? Certainly trouble is brewing in China, with its economic growth slowing. Oil is plunging to $30 or less, causing rumors of bankruptcies for some oil and gas firms. In addition, some heavily-leveraged mining companies are likely to go under.
But in the United States, employment figures are steadily rising, and real gross output (GO) and gross domestic product (GDP) growth continue to be positive, if a bit slower.
The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates for the first time in years. Is this suggesting tight money? Hardly. The money supply (M2) is still growing at a 5-6% annual rate. If the money supply were dropping precipitously, I'd be worried. But so far, that hasn't happened.
I remain a cautious bull. Corrections in the market are expected from time to time, and the latest sustained pullback is one of them. But are we heading toward an end-of-the-world collapse? I quite frankly don't see it. Beware of those who may lead you and other investors astray.
http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/markskousen/2016/01/15/are-we-heading-for-recession-or-worse-n2104953?CapOfferId=205&CapUserId=0&CapName=Poll+of+the+Day+-+Iranian+Nuclear+Deal&OfferAnswer=1795&AnswerId-1793=pat%40tustinwoodworks%2Ccom