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Trump 2016
Very popular with the High School Drop outs Trump is but Trump appeals is more on building a wall or deporting Mexicans. Every time I talk to a Trump supporter .... It's not pretty.
However, to his credit. He has shown that we do have a big group of White Americans who aren't educated or skilled. These Americans are desperate and they do need help.
So, to that context, I like what Trump has brought into the discussion.
He has also brought to the equation on how Iraq was a bad idea, that too was a good point.
The rest is just Politics ... Trump is going to lose by biggest vote margin ever recorded in U.S. history if he is the Republican Candidate.
I find the demographics one a non-starter, looking at the 40s - early 70s when we had massive growth in the Economy, the population only increased a few million.
We take in many millions of legal and illegal immigrants in just one decade, nevermind America's slightly positive birth rate.
However, to his credit. He has shown that we do have a big group of White Americans who aren't educated or skilled. These Americans are desperate and they do need help.
And there are nowhere near enough openings to possibly employ them if they did get educated. No employer is begging for Accountant I or Computer Programmer I applicants.
No country of 320+M can survive only on FIRE jobs. This is not Lichtenstein or Hong Kong; we are bigger and more populous than a city state.
40s - early 70s when
Our economy was so small then, plus there was no globalization market place
Black Plague thesis
Our economy grew from 2 trillion to 18 trillion from 1979 when the exporting thesis went away and the world because a global service and consumption economy
Our economy grew from 2 trillion to 18 trillion from 1979 when the exporting thesis went away and the world because a global service and consumption economy
What happened was we began eliminating all the common sense rules that prevented a banking crisis from the New Deal, and for a while, easy cheap widespread credit was wonderful in the Private Sector. We also cut taxes while massively increasing military spending when Reagan spent huge sums on upgrading the US Military.
However, taxes are at post WW2 lows, increasingly larger deficit spending has less and less of an impact, and the consumer is largely tapped out due to flat wages and already high levels of debt for the ejumacation it takes to get a lower middle class job pushing paper.
Finally, we have a profession that completely dropped the soap and got $*@#@ by reality in 2008, yet is just as arrogant a social science as it was before, without addressing fundamental flaws in it's thinking - Orthodox Economics. There were only a handful of Economists who came within anything like predicting the Financial Crisis, and half of them were cranks like Peter Schiff who are just broken clocks that were eventually right. The rest of the handful were mostly into...
Hyman Minsky!
Hyman Minsky!
Again, you're making my point
Low educated, Low Skilled, Drug Users, Criminal Active Americans are having a rough time
Peak unemployment rate for college educated Americans in the Great Recession was 5% and now it's 2.6%
with 16 year highs in Job openings and 43 year low in unemployment claims
with 16 year highs in Job openings
Versus the dot com recession, not much to brag about.
43 year low in unemployment claims
Yep, some millenial living at home is getting 10-15 hours at Accounttemps, therefore has a job.
Yep, some millenial living at home is getting 10-15 hours at Accounttemps, therefore has a job
College educated M's don't work those jobs, but non educated people do, I will give you that
College educated M's don't work those jobs, but non educated people do, I will give you that
I mean somebody with a degree who is working as a Temp or Waitress - if they work at all, they're not unemployed.
Only 45% of Americans are employed full time (30+) hours.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx
Gallap is horrible .... remember Gallap Leader was one to believe that 95 millions Americans are out of work
Even though we didn't lose more than 15 million from the Great Recession
First-quarter economy looks bleaker by the day.
Atlanta GDP has missed on it's GDP estimates 75% of the time by under shooting GDP
We have always had 1 real bad GDP quarter for years now
No Crash No Recession has happened because of this.
Even myself lowered by low end GDP this to a 1 handle and even with that
No Recession, No Crash,
:-)
Last year’s chemistry graduates in the US saw the jobs market improve, with unemployment falling from nearly 15% to 12.4%, according to figures from the American Chemical Society’s (ACS) annual graduate survey, released on 29 June.
Nevertheless, unemployment among new chemistry graduates ‘continues to run high,’ and was roughly 4 times as high as the rate for regular ACS members in 2014, the ACS noted. The unemployment figure was 12.4% for new grads versus 2.9% for ACS members, according to the survey, which was sent to 12,771 recent graduates in October and November 2014.
The overall picture is much rosier than the one painted by ACS’ last survey, which reported unemployment among chemistry graduates rising from 12.6% to 14.9% between 2012 and 2013.
ACS’s new data show that the median starting salary for new chemistry graduates with a bachelor's degree in 2014 improved 2.6% ahead of inflation. But at the same time, salaries for new master’s and PhD holders lagged behind inflation. Worst hit was the median starting salary of new doctorate chemists, which fell 20% from $75,000 in 2013 to $60,000 in 2014.
Regarding equality of the sexes, the survey reveals that new female chemistry graduates earned a starting median salary that was 7.3% less than their male counterparts in 2014. However, among chemical engineers, new female graduates were paid a starting median salary that was 3% higher than their male equivalents.
http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/07/employment-prospects-better-us-chemistry-graduates
The Media seldom reports high STEM unemployment numbers, because it takes away from one of the last Neoliberal red herring distraction of a skills mismatch and "People get the opportunities they work hard to qualify for" when there is already a glut of prospective qualified employees.
Very last thing I am worried about are the educated middle class in this country
I'm not taking the AEI is a source.
The Pew Research Center shows just that, as do other groups that aren't extremist radical neoliberal ideologue think tanks.
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/the-incredible-shrinking-middle-class/
The Pew Research Cente
Same exact thesis
Which I admit it was actually funny, people kept on sending me pew I said.... ????
I admit reading data isn't for everyone .....
Which goes to the core thesis
Anti American Left and Right have failed and now resorted to ranting about economics which for the most part is trying to create a false narrative thesis
Bears have been wrong about America for 226 years and you guys had your best shot to try to convince people that America is a failure
As long as we have our demographics and the dollar, the Perma Bears will fall, piles and piles of dead skulls for those who said America would fail!
We aren't Europe!
Negative interest rates reaching Consumer finance in Germany
The commercial paper market is dead,
Commercial is hot, you can make a over investment thesis there, but it's holding up
Commercial and industrial loans continue to rise, now at $2.03 trillion http://bit.ly/1SFmz5n
She is old but she still has legs
Wings Logan, she has wings. We are about to witness one of the greatest economic booms in American history.
We are about to witness one of the greatest economic booms in American history.
Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!
We are about to witness one of the greatest economic booms in American history.
Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!
$995,000. Take it or leave it young man.
By the way, I already purchased a home in North San Diego County. The old shack will be rented for a sky high price. I am now in a position to maximize profits with the coming boom like a good capitalist pig.
$995,000. Take it or leave it young man.
You were busy in 2010
I purchased rentals close to me in Ladera Ranch spring 2012, and a bunch of land in Feb 2013. I did nothing in 2010.
Trust me, Ladera Ranch will beat the rest of OC in appreciation.
Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!
Ladera Ranch
That area had the highest deliquesces, but smoke em you got them.
My rental is in Trabuco Canyon
Ladera Ranch
That area had the highest deliquesces, but smoke em you got them.
My rental is in Trabuco Canyon
The whole place was built during the bubble era. When the crash took place, everyone walked away making the place a super bargain. In 2012 90% of the homes were short sales. Today, almost nothing is a short sale.
Trabuco Canyon has good potential too, along with RSM.
Ladera Ranch
A lot Option Arms in that neighborhood .... during the bubble years.
They're building in Trabuco Canyon near my rental, 1 bedroom 1 Bath Condo 280k Rent $1,400
They're building in Trabuco Canyon near my rental, 1 bedroom 1 Bath Condo 280k Rent $1,400
A few more of those, and you are set.
A few more of those, and you are set.
Maybe in 4 -6 years
You'll be late to the party.
I see you have been studying those really scary economic charts from Mish.
The best response to this article today
2009-2016... has been the single worst periods for the Perma Bear group and the cycle duration outlasted their fraud economic theories
It has been so much fun this year... tearing up their none sense
People forget that this is #America not some sissy crying begging country debasing it's currency for hope of an exporting bailout of their economy...
:-)
Logan, I can't believe your new forecast. All your your charts show zero trouble for the economy other than home prices.
Bears have been wrong about America for 226 years and you guys had your best shot to try to convince people that America is a failure
You're not talking to me, I hope. America was the Greatest 1930-1980, when we experienced the greatest increase in power, standard of living, and technology ever seen on the face of planet earth.
Using temporary demographics-driven (all the boomers turning 20-30 in the 70s) inflation as an excuse, the laissez faire schmucks came out and to get an extra 1-2% return a year, started gutting the country.
There were no power outages in California until the Energy Industry was Deregulated. There had been no massive financial crisis with banking since the 1930s, until the repeal of Glass-Steagle.
We know what works - everybody profits under the new deal. But some would prefer for 45% of the population to suck it, just so they can be a little more rich than they already are.
People would piss their pants to have the kind of real growth among all segments of society that we had 1936-1980. Neoliberalism's record is a pale shadow in comparison. Any red herrings "Oh we already achieved maximum consumer growth" are simple unverifiable assertions and excuses.
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/01/the-u-s-economy-is-about-to-crash/
Sorry guys, I had to write this article today
#Economics
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