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Peddling Fiction
Lord did he have it right.... that's what it is Peddling Fiction
You're basically creating a false narrative thesis that the best economy in the world with an impending prime age labor force growth is about to hit a deflationary spiral resembling old European Serf economies
And what did people think about the economy in the 1920s? Ever heard the term "Roaring 20s"?
But, of course, no parallels at all.
The same thing occurred in the 1920s
Complete 100% different time and economy then to now
No housing market, no massive car sales, I can't believe we are even having this conversation that the economies of 1920 and similar to economic structure of today
Drinking started way to early
2 complete different economies
Is there a similarity in the demographics, i.e. was there a lull in the population in the 30s?
And what did people think about the economy in the 1920s? Ever heard the term "Roaring 20s"?
But, of course, no parallels at all.
100 Million Cars sold
40 Million Homes sold
57K median income in America today
This is borderline sociopath economic theory now
No housing market, no massive car sales, I can't believe we are even having this conversation that the economies of 1920 and similar to economic structure of today
You are not listening, in both cases the Central bank increased the M2 before the collapse. This is the cause of bubbles.
Is there a similarity in the demographics, i.e. was there a lull in the population in the 30s?
Prime age labor force decline happened in 2007, that was it... we are slowly growing
Lord the M's are 8 million bigger than the Boomers it's not comparable
You had 30% unemployment rates and you -10% GDP back in the Depression we had real bread lines back then
This notion of 1929 Great Depression thesis right after the Great Recession... Bad Bed.. Bad Bad Bad bet
100 Million Cars sold
40 Million Homes sold
57K median income in America todayThis is borderline sociopath economic theory now
Again--you're missing the forest Logan. Real incomes are stagnant. Sales of existing houses mean nothing. It adds very little to the economy.
Regardless, like I said the economy was very strong in the 20s. And still we had the Great Depression.
you are not listening, I have not had a drink in a week, how about you?
Real incomes are stagnant
So with Stagnate income and we still bought 100 million Cars and 40 million homes and retail sales are at a cycle high with mortgage demand at a cycle high 2016 and this is due to stagnate income and this is a thesis for a great depression
So with Stagnate income and we still bought 100 million Cars and 40 million homes and retail sales are at a cycle high with mortgage demand at a cycle high 2016 and this is due to stagnate income and this is a thesis for a great depression
cycle high? That's all you've got now? So, it's not as bad as it was at the worst of the recession? Woo Hoo.
And for the 3rd time. The economy was great in the 1920s. Right before the Great Depression. So, you're theory that we can't have a depression soon because things are OK now is nonsense.
Always a Great Depression fear monger if every group ...
Not me, you are responsible for that. The King Dollar and the Demographics kill that idea. But the central bank does cause damage.
The economy was great in the 1920s.
If you read about the roaring 1920's you would realize this cycle bears nothing to it either
If you read about the roaring 1920's you would realize this cycle bears nothing to it either
Oh, please do tell. I have read about it. What are the major differences?
A 20-year collapse like Japan
Our demographics bare nothing and neither does our economies... move it out 2040's
What are the major differences?
Are you serious, honestly is this a serious question you're asking?
Regarding the Sword of Damocles, the increase in the M2 and the question regarding demographics in the 20s have been asked 3 times with no answer.
These questions are not going to be answered.
Are you serious, honestly is this a serious question you're asking?
This is the question you keep dodging.
When 2020 comes and there is no Great Depression
Trust me... all I have to do is wait..
Starting from today you two I am going to spend my discussion blowing your economic non sense and Great Depression Serf economic theories
Just you two .... day in and day out
It will be my pleasure, You both have embarrassed yourselves tonight
Trying to educate lost souls like yourself is not embarrassing. Frustrating, perhaps. But not embarrassing.
Starting tomorrow
Logan vs Great Depression Serfs May 2020... we keep this thread alive that I will start tomorrow all the way ....
The foundation of big four is solid now... now we run into a stronger labor force...
But hey I will give you to 2020
BTW Friedman, Mr. MMT, was really a Keynesian. Because both believed in the demand thesis.
My demand curve thesis for housing had a demographic light patch to it from 2008-2019 but following that discipline that changes starting year 2020 and you're trying to import a weak Japan demographic thesis here when our labor force growth is going to be good.
It's not going to be a 5% GDP economy but it will be much more solid with economic output
Your 2020 is Japan Depression and My America 2020 is giving birth to a strong young labor force
That sounds about right between you and I
Ok, calling it a night my wife thinks I am flirting on line ...
Have a good night everyone sleep well! Don't let the Serf bugs bite ;-)
One of these days we all have to meet for Drinks
. and houses can only go up?
Home prices and inventory have a strong correlation, once inventory breaks over 6 months and we get a recession that can bring distress homes into the market then the negative pricing factor gets stronger.
Since this cycle is very clean on the mortgage front the next cycle down turn will bear nothing to housing bubble which was lead by fake demand and exotic debts that didn't create much equity.
We also don't have a cash out boom either unlike 2004-2006 that took more equity out of the equation.
Adjusting to inflation prices are still 20% below the peak of 2006
... and houses can only go up?
Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.
It has been my honor, namaste.
@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.
"No over investment thesis in this cycle"
the investment angle is a red herring
The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations
The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations
That thesis could have been used from 2010-2016 and has been used as valuation have never been cheap but with low inflation and low rates the cycle had had legs and is going into it's 9 year of expansion
She is old and she can't break over 2,136 .... but the Americans bears are showing their lack of economic background..
A deflationary spiral with Americans economics it's very difficult to have with our consumption based model as technology and globalization have killed inflation
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Unlike 2007, prime age labor force peaking won't be an issue, No crash coming!
Next recession will be very normal
No over investment thesis in this cycle
Don't get caught in the everything is a bubble mentality
#Economics