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and the increase in the housing prices?
It's hot for sure, demographic demand for housing was good from 1996-2007 ... soft patch here and then we will get a better demand curve
However, be mindful not to mix renter economics with ownership economics
2 different sets of financial profiles
The king dollar, that is from toughness? or iniquity?
Biggest economy in the world, biggest military in the world, 81% prime age working force are working! 100 Trillion Dollars of net worth
I can't express how the Anti American Bears have blew it bad this cycle
The owner profile has been given a windfall from the housing crash and the renter profile has been given the sharp stick in the eye?
The owner profile has been given a windfall from the housing crash and the renter profile has been given the sharp stick in the eye?
This cycle and it shows in total home sales number
Mind this fact
2008-2016 total mortgage buyers have been under 5 million the entire time
Let me repeat that fact. 2008-2016 total mortgage buyers ( total home sales both new and existing) have been under 5 million since 2008-2016
1. Demographics Ages 17-29 massive Ages 49065 Massive, not natural home buyer demographics, renters at best
2. No more exotic loans
3. Mass exodus of defaults --> pushing to renting demand Gen X
4. Longer duration period time of home buyers ---> marriage later
5. Older Americans choosing to rent more in this cycle
This is why we have had a massive renting boom and not a ownership
But this will change in a few years
Biggest economy in the world, biggest military in the world, 81% prime age working force are working! 100 Trillion Dollars of net worth
I can't express how the Anti American Bears have blew it bad this cycle
I'm talking about the advantage of owning the king dollar.
I have to admit I went to school on the demographics as they trump any economic theory.
However I'am not willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater. You are assuming that Austrians have nothing to say of value, not the case.
You are assuming that Austrians have nothing to say of value, not the case.
For a weak economy based on importing stuff and exporting stuff : Austrian economic discussion has merit
However, America doesn't fit that profile, in fact it's a special beast itself
However, America doesn't fit that profile, in fact it's a special beast itself
The two biggest attributes of the US are the king dollar and the demographics to come.
The current slump was exacerbated by government meddling. Which always the case with any bubble.
Lincoln was the guy who got 800,000 Americans killed. Admittedly his Hamiltonian ideas were very bearish for America.
Much better, hopefully he is going to fire a rocket up Lincoln's ass
The owner profile has been given a windfall from the housing crash and the renter profile has been given the sharp stick in the eye?
You should have listened to the housing bulls.
47% of Americans on some form of govt. assistance?
How many can't handle a sudden $1000 expense?
How many can afford full coverage (Sorry!We don't cover that procedure,) healthcare under ACA or private health insurance?
Anyone can add to this list if they choose,there's plenty.
No Jobs,No Consumers. Anyone paying attention to
all the trains & ships that aren't moving freight/consumer goods.
Bear/Bull Shit is unimportant compared to a few facts.
I forgot to apply Pretzel Logic so I missed that everyone is doing fine.
10 15 years from now
When America sits on top of the world and all the soft talk of secular stagnation and new normal goes away
Remember me...
Because none of you Bears should ever take glory in what this country is about to do
Don't forget.. I am calling you all out Left and Right
Bad time in economic history to get super bearish on America
10 15 years from now
When America sits on top of the world and all the soft talk of secular stagnation and new normal goes away
Remember me.
You may be right. However many of the negative factors that were present 10 years ago are still here today. We just bought ourselves time by lowering interest rates 300 basis points.
- rising uncontrollable healthcare costs
- rising uncontrollable education costs
- lack of affordable housing in job centers
- underfunded pensions
Yes there are many positives and that's why US is at the top in comparison to other first world countries that are also becoming feudal. For example, home ownership rate in Switzerland is 44%.
You may be right.
This is my biggest concern I have going forward
Household $ needed to take care of the old
This is a biggest spider web variable that I can't get a grasp on
We aren't losing our jobs to robots
No we are losing jobs to trade.
The benefits of increases in productivity had always been spread across the population before. Until trade came in, added hundreds of millions in the labor supply.
Then all benefits, including those of technology, suddenly became concentrated on the owners. Coincidence?
No we are losing jobs to trade.
Where on this chart did we lose our jobs to trade?
Starting about 1980ish you can see the slope of the line change. If you best fit that graph, it won't be a line but more of an exponential function. Because of all the jobs lost overseas and to automation.
If the money was redistributed back to the people who lost their jobs we'd be OK. But, instead all of the profits from increased productivity are enjoyed by a very small population. Therefore you have reduced velocity, reduced demand, structural unemployment, and stagnant wages.
Starting about 1980ish you can see the slope of the line change. If you best fit that graph, it won't be a line but more of an exponential function. Because of all the jobs lost overseas and to automation.
If the money was redistributed back to the people who lost their jobs we'd be OK. But, instead all of the profits from increased productivity are enjoyed by a very small population. Therefore you have reduced velocity, reduced demand, structural unemployment, and stagnant wages.
I disagree with everything you said right there
I disagree with everything you said right there
Logan, you don't see it in your business because you just make % of the asset price essentially. I can assure that in fields that compete globally wages are down 40-50% in real terms in the last 10 years.
Distribution of economic output only grows with labor force and that needs consumption demand to service based model
At the start of the 1980's was one of the most strongest labor force growth periods in the history of mankind and that led to consumption model demand
You Left thinking people put too much weight on Reagan and the right put too much weight on Clinton
And in that political madness you missed the best demographic push ever which needed jobs which came from the service jobs
You left leaning people forgot how you go have it in America
My Lord self entitlement you think you have as a human beings is boggling
2 Trillion economy to 18 Trillion With 43 year low in claims and 16 year high in Job openings and the best arugument you have against capitalims is that high school drop outs can't make a living wage
Logan, you don't see it in your business because you just make % of the asset price essentially. I can assure that in fields that compete globally wages are down 40-50% in real terms in the last 10 years.
If that was even 10% no way PCE consumption as a % to GDP would be here
We don't have enough labor for demand and we are crying about jobs...
Go to Europe and try to pull off the complaint or go to Japan where unemployment is low but demographics is killing their capacity to push any growth
Where on this chart did we lose our jobs to trade?
You are right we didn't "lose" jobs. We just crushed jobs. We destroyed good paying jobs and replaced with commodity workers, flipping burgers or equivalent.
But that wouldn't show on your nice graph of "jobs" that doesn't go down. (what you call facts)
You also have a nice graph of retail sales that goes up.
But does it mean people afford more stuff? Or does it mean they pay more for the same stuff? or maybe that rich people spend more on luxuries while everyone else is crushed?
These graphs hide the entire reality that is behind them.
Up to 2005, most people profited from housing prices going up. Now they are tearing society apart. But it looks the same on a chart.
We destroyed good paying jobs and replaced with commodity workers
Let's take Bernie's assumption of 800K jobs lost
Poor Bo Ho
154 Million Americans working and the entire manufacturing world is in a slow down and China is desperately trying to switch to a service economy
The Only reason we don't have High Unemployment is that we moved to a service sector economy
and we are still the 2nd biggest manufacturing country in the world
That's what all the fuss and crying and Boo Hooo poor Americans are all cry babies making min wage
3.3 Million Workers getting paid $7.25
Min wage jobs in other countries they wouldn't have any
I think Logan's FRED chart at the top proves exactly NOTHING. What is your thesis about the chart, Logan? I think I can guess what the thesis is, but perhaps you should be explicit about it.
perhaps you should be explicit about it
Very Simple None of you have any idea How good you have it in America ... and how much life has gotten better here from 100 years ago
While entire world is slowly down we are complaining about a country that sits on top of the world, coming off the Great Recession
1. 43 Year low in unemployment claims
2. 16 year highs in job openings 5.8 million bigger than the total population of many of your beloved Nordic countries
3. Real Median and Nominal wages are at Today current cycle highs
This is what you guys are crying about.. the end of American's Imperialistic economy and now back to Serfs
From my bottom of my heart to every single person on Patrick.net
This video from my own words is for you!
#USA Baby, love it or leave it but don't cry about every day, that is for the soft and the weak
https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10153602547313250/?type=3&theater
You lefty people really believe this stuff don't you...
I see you guys on facebook crying every day about America and then going back to single family homes and kids with your cars...
Right have just as many crazy economic theories as well but they just hate Mexicans and Middle Eastern too much to care about anything else plus with their Bathroom issues
Both have lost your way!!!
You mean... all is not perfect in Armorika?
You mean... all is not perfect in Armorika?
Facebook is a awesome place to listen to people who think they're the smartest economic people in the history of the world.
Some of you here know this because you're facebook friends of mine and you see what I have to deal with everyday
The deflationary spiral didn't happen! Core is up well over 1% now since the 2015
Let me ease all your concerns about America..
We are going to be fine, not just fine, we are going to do great and the world around us will have to fight demographics from behind while we lead from the front!
The deflationary spiral didn't happen! Core is up well over 1% now since the 2015
Just wait till Trump builds his wall and puts his tariffs on China.
No one will be talking of deflation anymore.
(Very Simple None of you have any idea How good you have it in America ... and how much life has gotten better here from 100 years ago
Uh, Logan, I was asking about the FRED chart in the thread post. The one that depicts w=(x-y)/z where x=fixed private investment, y=consumption of fixed capital, z=GDP.
What the hell does that supposedly have to do with "No crash coming!". Talk about mumbo-jumbo. Explain your thesis or quit. No more of this complete lack of logic:
1. post some random chart
2. mumbo-jumbo
3. therefore "No crash coming!" and "None of you have any idea How good you have it in America"
WTF man? You are making about as much sense as a Ten Pound Bass flopping around on dry land, to allude to another poster that seldom makes any sense.
Just wait till Trump builds his wall and puts his tariffs on China.
If anyone believes that garbage then they should go short retail stocks now
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Unlike 2007, prime age labor force peaking won't be an issue, No crash coming!
Next recession will be very normal
No over investment thesis in this cycle
Don't get caught in the everything is a bubble mentality
#Economics