patrick.net

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-case-for-and-against-democratic-panic/

Good analysis. I don't recall a time in modern history when a debate (and subsequent debates) were more important.

In football terms, we’re probably still in the equivalent of a one-score game. If the next break goes in Trump’s direction, he could tie or pull ahead of Clinton. A reasonable benchmark for how much the debates might move the polls is 3 or 4 percentage points. If that shift works in Clinton’s favor, she could re-establish a lead of 6 or 7 percentage points, close to her early-summer and post-convention peaks. If the debates cut in Trump’s direction instead, he could easily emerge with the lead.

It's now a little tighter than when he wrote this a couple days ago.

#Orangedouchebag #GrandmaNixon