2016 Oct 12, 3:46pm
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Time and time again we've explained how polling works. It's like loaning your cellphone to a racoon. They just don't know what to do with it even though they almost have opposable thumbs. In the end, the truth is: they. don't. want. to. know. the. truth.
It will be a waste of their time, but herewith, just for their sake, one more time, dear friends, into the breach.
"There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election.
He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump.
And he has been held up as proof by conservatives â€” including outlets like Breitbart News and The New York Post â€” that Mr. Trump is excelling among black voters. He has even played a modest role in shifting entire polling aggregates, like the Real Clear Politics average, toward Mr. Trump.
How? Heâ€™s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the biggest polling outlier of the presidential campaign. Despite falling behind by double digits in some national surveys, Mr. Trump has generally led in the U.S.C./LAT poll. He held the lead for a full month until Wednesday, when Hillary Clinton took a nominal lead."
These guys have been 0.3 to 0.7 within the margin of error since they started.
Their methodology links are also interesting to read.