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Patrick's Predictions


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2016 Nov 7, 8:46pm   29,460 views  144 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

I don't know whether Trump will win the election or not. I think he has a better chance than polls predict, because the majority of Americans have been strongly conditioned not to speak their actual views through decades of threats of job loss or expulsion from school, and this probably carries over when speaking with pollsters.

If Hillary wins, I predict that Trump's movement against establishment politicians will continue to grow, because the conditions which gave rise to Trump will continue. Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs, import foreign labor to depress wages, restrict free speech, attack traditional values, and start additional wars around the world. That would make the next election unfortunately even more interesting.

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up). People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage, and the declining marriage rate will reverse and start rising again. We will withdraw militarily from many countries. Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war, raising the price of oil. Oil production in the US and other countries will go up to compensate and oil prices will fall again. Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

#politics

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1   turtledove   2016 Nov 7, 8:53pm  

If Hillary wins, I predict that Trump's movement against establishment politicians will continue to grow, because the conditions which gave rise to Trump will continue. Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs, import foreign labor to depress wages, restrict free speech, attack traditional values, and start additional wars around the world. That would make the next election unfortunately even more interesting.
==============================

Unfortunately, I think this is the more likely outcome, but I hope to be surprised. I'm usually wrong, so if I maintain my streak, Trump should win for sure. That said, I think that the movement in and of itself is important... and will only intensify if Hillary wins. The American public isn't going to tolerate another eight years of the same old $hit. We've seen the media for what it is... We've seen the DNC/RNC for what they are... We've seen the lies all over the place. We've seen them essentially mock us as rubes who should just shut up and be grateful for what they decide we deserve.... There's just no putting the toothpaste back into that tube.

2   just_passing_through   2016 Nov 7, 8:59pm  

I think Hillary will win for many of the same reasons I've seen others on here post - those who are voting for Trump.

I'm sure I sometimes come across as a jerk on here but if you met me in real life your impression would be that I'm calm, cool, collected and very happy. I'm usually happy because, among other things to be happy for, I'm an optimistic realist and I set the bar very low. So low that things usually turn out better than expected! I'm hoping this is one of those cases...

3   Peter P   2016 Nov 7, 9:20pm  

Whoever wins, the next financial crisis will still happen fairly soon.

4   marcus   2016 Nov 7, 9:24pm  

turtledove says

Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs

I find it interesting that everyone thinks this is a big issue 35 years too late. It's seriously been decades since Pennsyvania, Michigan, and Ohio lost tons of industry. You might hear stats about this last decade, but how much of that is jobs that were lost after the crash, that never came back ?

You're being played with that issue. You really think we want big tarrifs and to make products ourself for much higher prices than what we currently pay?

The result would be stagflation, which might be great for Trump, but it's terrible for the rest of us. The next big wave of inflation is almost certain to destroy our standard of living further, and I have every reason to believe that's what Trump will bring us.

You people are so fucking gullible.

Our real incomes dropping as much as they have are the result of global capitalism and women going to work. Trump is a salesman. He has zero history of caring about what's best for working class AMericans. He might truly be interested in making America win again. But do you really think that's about helping working class or middle class families ?

IT should be !

And it is the way a bullshit artist tries to talk his way in to being elected President.

I guess we will get what we deserve. God help us if Trump is what we deserve. Maybe the silver lining if Trump were to win is a reboot and for once and for all after he destroys our economy. Hey, maybe you can blame it on Obama !

5   indigenous   2016 Nov 7, 9:24pm  

Very little will happen economically that isn't going to happen anyway.

The concern is that the illary will be able to start war unilaterally.

6   Peter P   2016 Nov 7, 9:28pm  

War is the natural state of humanity.

I can pretty much guarantee that we have NOT seen the last world war.

7   indigenous   2016 Nov 7, 9:30pm  

Peter P says

I can pretty much guarantee that we have NOT seen the last world war.

I can guarantee that we will be closer to that war with illary.

War is a natural state of politicians and the dumb ass constituents who acquiesce to them.

8   marcus   2016 Nov 7, 9:31pm  

Patrick says

There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up). People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage, and the declining marriage rate will reverse and start rising again. We will withdraw militarily from many countries. Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war, raising the price of oil. Oil production in the US and other countries will go up to compensate and oil prices will fall again. Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because the they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

Wow you have a rich fantasy life. I just hope you won't find out how incredibly wrong you are. Hillary winning will be good for you, becasue you can continue with your absurd delusions. Where as if Trump wins, you would surely for the most part blame liberals for the failure of Trumps policies, maybe on some level you might realize how wrong you were.

9   Patrick   2016 Nov 7, 9:33pm  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Our real incomes dropping as much as they have are the result of global capitalism and women going to work.

At least you admit that globalization is part of the problem. I don't think I buy the women going to work argument though.

10   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 7, 9:33pm  

Patrick says

. People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage,

Have dinner ready at 6 oclock or else. Trump does not represent traditional gender roles. He is a pig. Traditional men were gentlemen.

12   marcus   2016 Nov 7, 9:36pm  

rando says

I don't think I buy the women going to work argument though.

It's called the supply of workers. IF you don't think this affects what workers are paid, I don't think there's much hope for your understanding economics any better than the other Trump supporters.

13   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 7, 9:38pm  

Lambert has said, that wages have not kept pace with capital. Wages must improve. Only problem is, wages must decline for us to be competative and as long as rents and housing go up, also by too much capital, the workers are screwed.

House prices must decline, which would be assisted by higher interest rates, also needed to save pensions, insurance companies, and retired people who don't want to buy stocks and speculation.

The new normal, in a nutshell, is labor taking it on the chin while capital accumulates.

14   freespeechforever   2016 Nov 7, 9:45pm  

Gary, don't look now, but you are advocating the benefits of asset-deflation, which is the #1 boogy-man of the most liberal economists such as (hack) Paul Krugman and others of his smelly, bearded ilk.

15   Patrick   2016 Nov 7, 9:47pm  

Women don't actually work for any less than men do, for the same job with the same experience. In fact, they get paid significantly more than men in their 20's at least. So they are not competing on wages.

Also, in countries with a high level of female participation in the workforce, real wages are substantially higher than in countries where women do not work.

Gary Anderson says

Only problem is, wages must decline for us to be competative

Or our currency could decline for the same effect, without local wages declining. China is a master at that game.

16   marcus   2016 Nov 7, 9:49pm  

rando says

At least you admit that globalization is part of the problem

Admit ?

Globalization exists. How much of a problem it is, I don't know. I guess we can fight it. But maybe if we go with it, we move towards figuring out how to live in a world that's quickly going to get to a population of 10 billion. That is, in a sustainable way. SOme "problems" are just facts, and not problems to be solved.

I see logical conundrums.

What does the long game look like ? Will there be a world government that oversees things like pollution, terrorism, nuclear proliferation and fair use of resources ?

OR will we isolate ourselves and let the rest of the world figure out their own problems ?

MAybe we can continue consuming a majority of the worlds resources, at a rate that is totally unsustainable, but minding our own business while other countries continue to develop, with many eventually having nukes. THen where do we find ourselves 50 years from now ? What do the countries that lose out decade after decade do ?

Are you just figuring that maybe civilization doesn't go on that long, so it doesn't matter ? Or perhaps you figure that maybe nuclear winter will be what saves us from global warming ?

I know that Trump has been hanging out for decades with people that think way more about this kind of stuff than where their next income is going to come from. So maybe you're right to want Trump as President.

17   indigenous   2016 Nov 7, 9:56pm  

Gary Anderson says

Only problem is, wages must decline for us to be competative

That is a myth. Wages are created by production. The US has more people working now than at any time in history, despite having lost a ton of jobs to China, and we have very low unemployment.

The US is only slightly behind China in manufacturing.

The best way to create economic growth is to slow the growth of regulations and taxes and laws.

18   Patrick   2016 Nov 7, 9:56pm  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

Will there be a world government

Sounds like an exceptionally bad idea to me. Where do you go when the one world government goes bad?

marcus is NOT deplorable says

MAybe we can continue consuming a majority of the worlds resources, at a rate that is totally unsustainable

Don't worry, China will quickly pass us in consuming resources. Already beat us more than 10 years ago in many aspects of consumption. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4272577.stm

19   marcus   2016 Nov 7, 9:59pm  

If Trump becomes President, I predict he will spend his entire first term getting over himself - that he's President - that he's actually that good of a salesman. That and adoring his own image in the media. There will be a lot of bullshit. So much fun for all the assholes that just want to fuck everyone else (and themselves) over.

20   40c8   2016 Nov 7, 10:05pm  

Patrick is pretty close to completely illiterate on economics...

1. jobs will come back to the US. Bullshit. factories are moving out of china to other countries like vietnam, malaysia, cambodia as I write this, for two reasons: China's aging population is actually making labor more expensive then its neighbors, and the TPP if it passes makes it better to have your company in TPP countries. Tarriffs on china will simply move things faster; Your cheap crap will never be made in the US again, close down china, and it moves to somewhere else with cheap labor.

2. Hillary will export jobs. Sure, we are up 40 million jobs since her husband came into office; millions a year under Obama. Your writing style is better than ironvagina, but sadly, you aren't much ahead of him in your conclusions.

3. people will feel free to support traditional gender roles, marriage. Seriously wtf? nothing is more supported than traditional gender roles in this country. literally, nothing. Nobody is out there encouraging anyone to turn gay, and stopping discrimination against one group does literally nothing against the dominant group. other than your own bigotry, what could possibly make you think anyone is not supporting your or my traditional marriages?

21   bob2356   2016 Nov 7, 10:07pm  

Patrick says

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up).

Earth to patrick. These things are not dictated by the president no matter how much trump believes it to be true. Tarrifs and walls are all things that must be passed by congress. The congress trump has been at war with for the entire campaign. The trump anti establishment presidency is a joke. He isn't bringing in an anti establishment congress on his coat tails.

Patrick says

Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

You do realize that a cheaper dollar and import tarrifs means that all imports become more expensive don't you? Many of the top import categories will not be replaced by domestic sources. For those products that are replaced domestically there will not be any surge in wages, production is being automated too fast for that. Robots are getting cheaper by the day, don't call in sick or take vacations. So the masses won't be seeing any increase (or will see a decrease) in their standard of living. The super wealthy have the ability to arbitrage the dollar flow either direction no matter who's policies are implemented. Assuming trump can get any polices implemented at all.

22   Patrick   2016 Nov 7, 10:12pm  

40c8 says

nothing is more supported than traditional gender roles in this country

Try suggesting that motherhood is actually a worthy and noble use of 20 years of a young woman's life on any college campus. You'll be tied up, doused with gasoline, and burned alive, while being kicked to death.

23   HEY YOU   2016 Nov 7, 10:22pm  

I'm so glad that D & R voters had nothing to do with the fubar america is in today.
So continually voting R & D will certainly do no harm to america.

If ignorance is bliss,
All the Democrats & Republicans have a shit eating smile.

24   Ceffer   2016 Nov 7, 10:25pm  

I predict that at the swearing in ceremony, Obama will pop out of the IHLlary fat suit for another four years.

25   Peter P   2016 Nov 7, 10:33pm  

rando says

Try suggesting that motherhood is actually a worthy and noble use of 20 years of a young woman's life on any college campus.

People are being over-educated. They are learning negative knowledge. Ignorance of one's own ignorance is worse than simple ignorance.

26   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 8, 5:07am  

freespeechforever says

Gary, don't look now, but you are advocating the benefits of asset-deflation, which is the #1 boogy-man of the most liberal economists such as (hack) Paul Krugman and others of his smelly, bearded ilk.

Market monetarists, who are libertarian and opposed to fiscal stimulus, often, also advocate asset inflation just like Krugman. Lambert opposes it and so do I. It was ok to get us off the mat in 2009. It really hurt mainstreet because it continued too long. The divide between rich and poor is simply too great.

27   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 8, 5:11am  

indigenous says

That is a myth. Wages are created by production. The US has more people working now than at any time in history, despite having lost a ton of jobs to China, and we have very low unemployment.

Wages have to decline for certain industries. But you are correct, wages are too low compared to the allocation of capital which is Lambert's argument. So, wages need to go up in order for GDP to grow. That is fact, or the cost of living has to come way down. Speculation in real estate is destroying that option.

Slow the growth of regulations, but not give banks free checking to blow another bubble with bad paper.

28   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 8, 5:18am  

rando says

Or our currency could decline for the same effect, without local wages declining. China is a master at that game.

Only problem is that the cost of living is too high. So, in certain industries that need a financial break, rents and house prices are just too high. Lambert's argument is that labor is not getting enough of the profits which is slowing GDP growth. So, we have a problem, the need to compete against the need to pay better wages. Globalization sure has made this difficult. Real estate speculation will force any gains by labor to go to Wall Street, which undermines the GDP. Many businesses are just hanging on because of low interest rates, but rates need to be raised as I said above, or pensions, insurance companies, and elderly will not participate properly in the economy.

29   Y   2016 Nov 8, 5:41am  

However, the likelihood of the next world war being the last is very high...

Peter P says

I can pretty much guarantee that we have NOT seen the last world war.

30   Y   2016 Nov 8, 5:42am  

With the advent of Boston Market drive-through, the "dinner ready at 6 oclock" meme is dated...

Gary Anderson says

Have dinner ready at 6 oclock or else.

31   Y   2016 Nov 8, 5:52am  

As a result of their middle class jobs being exported. They are too smart for garbage picking, and so are being told the path to success is to educate yourself further and further generating a lifelong mortgage on intelligence...however they wind up at mcdonalds anyway.

Peter P says

People are being over-educated. They are learning negative knowledge

32   BayArea   2016 Nov 8, 6:10am  

Patrick says

I think he has a better chance than polls predict, because the majority of Americans have been strongly conditioned not to speak their actual views through decades of threats of job loss or expulsion from school, and this probably carries over when speaking with pollsters.

I keep thinking about this and the effect it is having on the polls up to now. There are a lot of people out there that won't advertise their support for Trump publicly due to backlash within any social, professional, or education system circle they run in.

And @Patrick, you sure do believe that a huge amount of change will take place depending on the elected candidate. I'm not as optimistic on that.

33   marcus   2016 Nov 8, 6:14am  

BayArea says

I keep thinking about this and the effect it is having on the polls up to now. There are a lot of people out there that won't advertise their support for Trump publicly due to backlash within any social, professional, or education system circle they run in.

THen again, how many people like the idea of being a rabble rouser and sturring things up, but when it comes time to vote, they wake up and realize this guy is saying some compelling stuff, but he's a con artist and it's too risky, so last minute they change their mind and decide not to blow up the world.

Also, polls say nothing about percentage of people that will vote. Maybe a lot of people that normally wouldn't bother, will come out to stop this clown.

You don't realize how many people see the guy for who he is.

34   BayArea   2016 Nov 8, 6:18am  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

You don't realize how many people see the guy for who he is.

I do because I'm one of those people.

But if a "silent majority" does exist, it's surely predominantly pro Trump. Hillary has little silent majority because libs run their mouth to anyone who will listen.

35   marcus   2016 Nov 8, 6:41am  

BayArea says

But if a "silent majority" does exist, it's surely predominantly pro Trump. Hillary has no silent majority

Not talking silent majority.

When they poll people, it doesn't capture people that don't vote. PEople that don't vote aren't a silent majoirty, they are people that have a preference but just don't bother voting, becasue they're lazy, they're busy, becasue they don't think their one vote matters or because of some combination of those reasons or others. 57% voted in 2012.

What I'm saying is that people that might otherwise not vote may be voting this time becasue of how much they don't want the other person President. Yes this works on both sides, but I believe it might surprise people what percentage show up for Hillary.

Let's not forget how much better her ground game is where it matters.

36   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 8, 7:01am  

BayArea says

But if a "silent majority" does exist, it's surely predominantly pro Trump.

Not sure. A lot of conservative women are scandalized by Trump. Look at Utah. Mormon women don't want Trump.

37   Gary Anderson   2016 Nov 8, 7:02am  

I think Clinton in a landslide, because you cannot offend women, blacks, Hispanics, disabled and everyone under the sun and hope white men vote for you.

38   marcus   2016 Nov 8, 7:03am  

There's way more dishonesty, stupidity, ego and hate out there than we ever imagined.

39   vanbomel   2016 Nov 8, 7:06am  

If Hillary wins, I predict that Trump's movement against establishment politicians will continue to grow, because the conditions which gave rise to Trump will continue. Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs, import foreign labor to depress wages, restrict free speech, attack traditional values, and start additional wars around the world. That would make the next election unfortunately even more interesting.

There's not much of a problem with free speech. Those overhypes stories from college campuses are insignificant. Immigrants may push down wages for some workers, but they don't push down the average wage. Your grandparents or great-grandparents must have pushed down wages for someone whenever they came over, if that's a real issue.

40   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 8, 7:11am  

40c8 says

1. jobs will come back to the US. Bullshit. factories are moving out of china to other countries like vietnam, malaysia, cambodia as I write this, for two reasons: China's aging population is actually making labor more expensive then its neighbors, and the TPP if it passes makes it better to have your company in TPP countries. Tarriffs on china will simply move things faster; Your cheap crap will never be made in the US again, close down china, and it moves to somewhere else with cheap labor.

Then we will put tariffs on those countries too. Duh.

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