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Is California's housing bubble about to burst?


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2016 Dec 14, 5:19am   2,011 views  7 comments

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http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=31755

Real estate valuation company looks to Feds expected rate increase as a trigger •  San Jose going negative over the last quarter is a huge deal As housing markets in San Jose dip into the red for the first time since 2011, an all-but-certain interest rate hike by the end of 2016 may push other over-heated Californian markets over the cliff into the reality of falling home prices, warns real estate valuation company Clear Capital of Reno, Nevada.

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1   BayArea   2016 Dec 14, 5:33am  

As always, there's no subprime lending crisis so there is no bubble to burst.

A correction of 2, 5,10%? Sure it's possible.

And if interest rates go up, house prices will go down. That has zero to do with any bubble.

Gawd damn media and their bullshit hysteria. Assholes

2   Strategist   2016 Dec 14, 5:39am  

BayArea says

As always, there's no subprime lending crisis so there is no bubble to burst.

A correction of 2, 5,10%? Sure it's possible.

And if interest rates go up, house prices will go down. That has zero to do with any bubble.

Gawd damn media and their bullshif hysteria. Assholes

They take one city in the state that pauses after a run up, and it's immediately referred to as a bubble about to burst.
LOL. Trying to attract attention to gain customers. That's all it is.

3   BayArea   2016 Dec 14, 5:42am  

Strategist says

BayArea says

As always, there's no subprime lending crisis so there is no bubble to burst.

A correction of 2, 5,10%? Sure it's possible.

And if interest rates go up, house prices will go down. That has zero to do with any bubble.

Gawd damn media and their bullshif hysteria. Assholes

They take one city in the state that pauses after a run up, and it's immediately referred to as a bubble about to burst.

LOL. Trying to attract attention to gain customers. That's all it is.

I see it over and over... the massive run up since 2012 pauses during the month of November. Real Estate journalists identify it and begin shitting out doom and gloom articles rather than just saying, "It ran up so fucking high for the past 4yrs that salaries in the area just can't support any more run up. We may finally be leveling out" and leave it at that you assholes

4   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   2016 Dec 14, 9:55pm  

it may go down 5-15% but don't expect 2009 prices anytime soon.

5   exfatguy   2016 Dec 15, 11:08am  

Even a 9.5 earthquake wouldn't cause Bay Area housing prices to crash. In fact, they might even go up 10% as speculators fight for the land. Just the thought of a potential 9.5 quake and resultant speculation has caused speculation. Housing prices rose 5% in the time it took you to read this.

6   JZ   2016 Dec 15, 2:33pm  

what's the definition of bubble?
Price increase does not mean "bubble".
If definition comes from affordability of local people, then local W2 earners can not afford in Bay Area, at least NOT in the long run in the sense that one can NOT guarantee same income level for 30 years to pay for the mortgages that has been elevated to the maximum capability of W2 earners.
But there are always possible external buyers who will NOT be local W2 earners but to park cash or investment. This leads to the valuation for houses as an investment. For this, nothing is in "bubble" if checked against 0 interest rate. But hey, isn't zero rate itself a bubble? This leads to the definition of "bubble" as sustainability. IF zero rates truely sustains, then all Pension, Insurance and the like will go out of business like Dallas police and fire department .

For W2 affordability, it's a bubbble.
For investment, it is NOT bubble when checked against 0 rate. But 0 rate is NOT sustainable, and you can call that bubble of all investments.

7   AdamCarollaFan   2017 Jan 9, 12:12am  

bubble? burst? who the hell knows.

all indications/reports/forecasts say that housing is gonna go up. in my area, it's "supposedly" gonna rise 7.1% in 2017. dayum!!

but like all asset classes, they rise and fall. hopefully I can get in when it's on the downside :)

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