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The incredibly shrinking Italian population: By 2080, Italians will be a minority in their own country

Though the official data shows that Italy’s population was growing until 2015 and according to a Eurostat projection it will stabilize within the next decades, the number of indigenous citizens is shrinking with an astonishing pace: every year by a quarter of a million, and this decline will accelerate. That means that the projected demographic growth can only be achieved by mass migration from Africa and Central Asia. Currently most migrants in Italy are from Romania but that number is declining rapidly. There will be less and less migration from other European countries because all European nations are in a dramatic demographic decline and because due to the prolonged Italian economic crisis the country is not a prime destination for people from other European states.

If the official Eurostat forecast is correct, then within 60 years or, taking into consideration the current pace of migration even sooner, 50% of Italy’s inhabitants will be of African or Asian descent. The figures found by our demographic-research team are by far not unique and government statisticians have the same numbers. Not only are the Italian and European authorities fully aware of this, but they seem to be executing a re-population program on such a monumental scale that will dwarf the Swedish mass migration experiment.

The Italian fertility rate (of indigenous and naturalized female citizens), i.e. the number of children per woman, is 1.34, which is far below the replacement level of 2.1. Much the same is true of the whole European continent. In this respect Europe resembles Japan. The difference is that while the Japanese authorities expect the country’s population to decline by a stunning 60% by the end of this century, the European governments predict a population growth. Why is that so? The answer is simple. The European leaders have opted for replenishing their nations with migrants whereas their Japanese counterparts have not. The Tokyo authorities refuse to replace their people with aliens, knowing full well that in the long run such a step would mean that Japan will only continue to exist in name.

To get a better understanding of the demographic development in Europe, the Gefira team has developed software for population simulation, called Cerberus 2.0. The program is fed with millions of records provided by Eurostat and National Statistic Agencies of different European member-states. For Italy, Cerberus 2.0 began its simulation with the 1985 population level, which is the first year for which a complete database concerning death and fertility rates is available. To calculate the population of the subsequent years, Cerberus 2.0 increased the age of all groups. The program uses the age-specific fertility and death rates for each year. The number of newborns can be calculated from the age-specific fertility rate multiplied by the number of women in each year. The program can determine very precisely how many newborns there are and how many people die in each age-group. Demographic prediction without migration is the most precise forecast and leaves us with little uncertainty about the plight of the Italian nation.

Starting with the year 1985, Cerberus 2.0 calculated that in 2016 Italy should have numbered 55 million people. Yet, according to Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics, there were 60 million inhabitants, which means that 5 million of them were immigrants. This fact was both admitted by Istat and predicted by our software.

For the predictions after 2016 Cerberus 2.0 uses the fertility and death rates from 2016. This simulation gives a very accurate estimation of the future Italian population.

https://gefira.org/en/2018/01/18/the-incredibly-shrinking-italian-population-by-2080-italians-will-be-a-minority-in-their-own-country/