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I've also looked at all my neighbors and many have refied and done cashouts on houses they've been in for decades.
bob2356 saysYou forgot the real 2008 problem. Overpriced housing with overstretched borrowers. Many markets are/have returned to that with creative financing creeping back
That was 2008, this is 2018. Homes are more affordable now, and those 2008 lending conditions do not exist anymore.
Home prices being overpriced or underpriced are in the eyes of the beholder. My eyes say, home prices are underpriced.
But what's interesting is that we've seen plenty of vacant homes in our neighborhood bought with foreign money where the owner is banking on the equity growth. The ones that bought in the last several years are making a killing on their unoccupied homes (at least on paper). It's amazing, truly.
Sniper says
I've also looked at all my neighbors and many have refied and done cashouts on houses they've been in for decades.
How do you find this out? Do you have access to non-public data?
BayArea says
But what's interesting is that we've seen plenty of vacant homes in our neighborhood bought with foreign money where the owner is banking on the equity growth. The ones that bought in the last several years are making a killing on their unoccupied homes (at least on paper). It's amazing, truly.
How did you determine the citizenship of the buyers of "plenty" of houses? That's amazing, truly.
The foreign buyer boogey man keeps popping up time and time again. Yet the percentage of real estate owned by foreigners has remained the same for decades.
I for one am far from a housing bear. I've been buying steadily for 6 years now. But I'm getting out of Vegas for sure, it's getting frothier by the day. Moving into markets that are undervalued and not changing much.
Not going to happen.
Deeds and mortgages are public records available online at the county clerk's office.
Nope. Interest rate hikes have happened lots of times before. Rising rates does not cause a housing correction.
Strategist saysNope. Interest rate hikes have happened lots of times before. Rising rates does not cause a housing correction.
Rising interest rates are looking to be a significant factor in popping the Toronto/Vancouver markets.
How would you determine on a mortgage or deed document if it's FHA or not? Just searched some I know are FHA in my area, there's no indication of down payment or type of loan.
Cool. Then we're all fucked. An entire generation won't be buying houses. I feel bad for older people because then there's not a chance in hell they can sell the complete garbage they built in the 90's, when they were what, 35 years old and so much more advanced then Millennial's who are just now starting to hit 35 on the front end.
The deed shows the purchase price, the filed mortgage shows the financed amount. Doing the quick math, I see they put approx. 3% down.
You will easily get $125 per night per cabin for 15 days a month.
Are you looking around your house or some other area? While the search itself is most certainly simple, you're not aggregating enough data to come out with any true trend searching on a clerks or recorder of deeds site.
Also assuming that data is accurate.
That's just my one small town and does not represent a trend by any means, anywhere else in the country.
Not going to give away my work life here, but haven't seen an FHA loan closed in 3 years on 60 properties roughly.
You're also in NJ which is high property tax and I believe income tax. So why would anyone with a brain sink a huge down payment into a home in that area?
Leverage is king in a high COLA area when you can dump and run if you don't want to pay your mortgage.
We really should not allow foreign money to own American land.
Airlines are in a price war with respect to HI lately as well.
You forgot the real 2008 problem. Overpriced housing with overstretched borrowers. Many markets are/have returned to that with creative financing creeping back.. When, not if but when, the economy goes south there will be a crash. Bonus points, the deficit will soar to 2t or higher. Good to have the party of fiscal responsibility in charge.
Sniper saysI track a bunch of houses sold in my area and look up the mortgages. By far, the majority are all going 3.5% down, FHA loans. Hardly any are putting down any substantial down payments. Plus, these new loans carry PMI for the life of the loan, unless they refi down the road.
These people are underwater the minute they walk into the house. Plus, the appreciation in the area has been marginal at best, so they're not playing the high leverage game to maximize their equity. Prices have moved sideways for many years.
This tells me that people are really stretched financially, and aren't saving money. Any downturn in the housing market, and all these people are screwed and underwater.
I've also looked at all my neighbors and many have refied and done cashouts on houses they've been in for decades. So any downturn and all these people will be underwater on houses they've lived in for a lon...
Fortunately, we are in a situation where we can work almost indefinitely. My wife and I were just talking about that. If someone left us with $4M net worth after taxes today, I don't think very much in our lives would change. Yes, we would be debt free with not a financial worry in the world but we would still work. I would work for sure although possibly incorporate a certain hobby I have into the business. Screw the Cessna. I want a Mooney!
https://www.controller.com/listings/aircraft/for-sale/23975309/1992-mooney-m20j-mse
Hi guys,
Given that there is no subprime lending crisis like there was over a decade ago, any housing correction would come elsewhere.
What are the possible triggers:
Interest rate hikes - heard of plans to raise rate 4 times in 2018
New tax plan - in Jan and Feb I’ve seen absolutely no slowdown or concern with reduction in tax benefits
Recession or stock market correction
War
Natural Disaster - massive earthquake would certainly shake things up in the Bay Area (no pun)
WookieMan saysAre you looking around your house or some other area? While the search itself is most certainly simple, you're not aggregating enough data to come out with any true trend searching on a clerks or recorder of deeds site.
I first looked around at my neighborhood and neighbors, just for the hell of it to see where everybody is at. All the actually deeds and mortgages are recorded, so it's easy to pull them based on name, lot/block, or whatever.
WookieMan saysAlso assuming that data is accurate.
It's the hard copy deeds and signed mortgages, they're accurate.
WookieMan saysThat's just my one small town and does not represent a trend by any means, anywhere else in the country.
My town is s...
Why do you base everything going on across the country on what's going on in your neighborhood? You seem to think if it's not happening in your backyard, it doesn't happen anywhere.
It's the hard copy deeds and signed mortgages, they're accurate.
Is that the criteria and plans when buying today? Put down the minimum so you can cut and run and fuck the bankers? Sounds like some questionable morals. I guess people in your world aren't buying houses to secure their future and families and have a nice place to live long term. Strange on how things change with different generations.
Given that there is no subprime lending crisis like there was over a decade ago
Because I know the realtors personally who sold the houses. Got it Bob? Still amazing?
Your analysis lacks a lot of factors.
My long rant aside. You're likely right that if there are more FHA borrowers out there, it's likely to do with the fact that they can't save up the down payment or have poor credit
All this said, FHA loans aren't necessarily bad. Smart people can use them to their advantage.WookieMan says
I'd bet good money that 90% of people that buy a $200k house with an FHA loan versus 20% down conventional, invest the 16.5% down payment ($33k) difference in index following funds, will end up with more money in the end all other things being equal (jobs, income, etc). Do this for 30 years until the house is paid off. FHA buyer will almost always end up ahead investing that $33k in stocks versus sitting in their house. And they still got the same house!
Just imagine.....four 800 sq ft cabin like homes in a heavily forested 1 acre lot
Bay Area is turning into a shithole.
Traffic, crime, terrible service everywhere, dirty bathrooms in public parks, drugs, angry Neighbour’s, tired overworked overmortgaded people, expensive daycares.
It’s only a question of time people will realize that it’s just not worth paying lifelong for huge mortgage, slave and hustle for it and than die. I see most of my friends living like this and slowly getting tired of it.
Life too short for it. You won’t take it with you. Smart are leaving already.
We really should not allow foreign money to own American land.
Given my 8 month experience leasing out a condo on Maui
FortWayne saysWe really should not allow foreign money to own American land.
Australia and Canada allow foreign ownership, but have been raising the surcharge on foreign purchases, up to 20% now in Canada I think.
That's not a bad idea. Discourages the Chinese speculators/launderers (lol, there must be a good "Chinese laundry" pun in there") and also provides revenue.
correction preceding the housing correction
Given that there is no subprime lending crisis like there was over a decade ago
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Given that there is no subprime lending crisis like there was over a decade ago, any housing correction would come elsewhere.
What are the possible triggers:
Interest rate hikes - heard of plans to raise rate 4 times in 2018
New tax plan - in Jan and Feb I’ve seen absolutely no slowdown or concern with reduction in tax benefits
Recession or stock market correction
War
Natural Disaster - massive earthquake would certainly shake things up in the Bay Area (no pun)