patrick.net

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/opinion/saudi-arabia-islam-mbs.html

this article was written before Khashoggi, but it discusses fundamental realities of Islam, which strongly tend towards a decline of KSA as its center. Since the House of Saud is inextricably tied with Wahabism, it cannot stand if Wahabism is rejected (again) by the world majority of Muslims, or overthrown by a domestic revolt sounding in another sect of Islam.

The Khashoggi murder is important as a triggering event. It is clear that Erdogan is making a bid to reassert Istanbul's geostrategic dominance as the leader of Islam. see http://www.atimes.com/article/erdogan-mbs-islamic-leadership-and-the-price-of-silence/

also see https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/11/19/iranian-albatross-us-has-hung-around-its-own-neck.html

(actually, more important than the Asia Times article, and more detailed as to the consequences and the collapse of the US-British Middle East foreign policy that are likely to ultimately have been triggered by the murder (NOTICE I am not saying Khashoggi is a FUNDAMENTAL cause, but it is the triggering event that is causing the fundamental causes to move into a slow but definitive landslide))

The importance of the Khashoggi murder is that it is having an incalculable, but humongous, impact on the willingness of Western investors to deal with KSA, and to provide the know-how required for the domestic stability and modernization of KSA.

(I cannot refind the article I read yesterday pointing out that 4.5 M young Saudis desperately need work, which is unattainable in an economy seeking diversification merely from oil funds (we know this because this strategy failed previously, bringing MbS to the Crown Princedom), and must therefore have foreign capital, and, even more importantly, foreign know-how and training. Therefore, KSA is in a desperate position when access to Western capital and expertise is denied or seriously delimited, and to avoid internal upheaval and an Islamic jihad to overthrow the corrupt Saudi house, THEY MUST HAVE MODERNIZATION CAPITAL AND KNOW-HOW FROM SOME SOURCE IN ORDER TO SURVIVE. It is not optional. I WISH TO GET YOUR ATTENTION ON THIS CRUCIAL POINT -- IT IS NOT OPTIONAL)

Having lost this from its primary Western sources, through the (yet-peaking, and probably to get MUCH more damaging) Khashoggi affair, the Saudis will very conceivably have to turn to China, which has vast capital it desires to invest, a foreign policy seeking expansive influence into the East African and South-Central Asian litoral, and a growing hostility to the United States which -- in alliance with Russia, Pakistan. and Iran -- could eventually make the northern Indian Ocean a "no go" zone for the US and British Navy (remember the fate of the Repulse and Prince of Wales in 1941). These two navies are already in considerable decline in the Eastern Mediterranean, due to the rebuilding, modernization, and incursions of the Russian Navy there, combined with powerful shore-based firepower available from Syrian positions.

However, the greater consequences of this are not necessarily military, but rather potentially economic. Note, for example, in the link just below, countermeasures that KSA could take if Congress forced upon Trump sanctions he did not desire to implement: trading of oil based on yuan instead of US dollars. I'm going to go so far as to say that the US would be then facing a catastrophic situation not less ominous than an actual military defeat in WW3, since the maintenance of the US empire is largely based on being able to force all other countries to invest in US bonds (i.e., in the US economy) at disadvantageous rates through its control of the world reserve currency. Needless to say, domestic stability (in the sense of retaining a standard of living that would no longer be possible with loss of world reserve currency status, very possibly inciting severe civil unrest if not civil war) would be gravely impaired also.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2168849/china-may-seek-boost-ties-saudi-arabia-it-cant-fill-us-arms

(I recognize that China would face a difficult balancing act, as it desires to have good relations and trade with both Iran and KSA)

In summation, your analysis that the Khashoggi murder is (while important) not likely to have any severe or long-term consequences is wrong. It is wrong because you aren't looking at the bigger picture of the decline of the US and Britain, their grave internal weaknesses preventing recovery, their debt, their antiquated and ineffectual militaries (aside of their strategic weapons, which they increasingly are unable to employ for fear of draconian counterattacks they cannot block), the US likelihood of losing world reserve currency status, and innumerable other problems, or the factors I have emendated in this email. To put it simply, you rested your argument on the idea that as long as the US and UK didn't act against KSA for the murder, then all would be well. That is false. Not only may Congress act apart from Trump's wishes, but the US and UK are falling into rapid decline, a centralized Asian power bloc has now formed (including oil and gas pipelines supplying China, Turkey, SE Europe, and other areas from Russia) -- one having COMPLETE AND TOTAL ability to resist any US pressure or military adventurism --, and all long-term indicators show clearly that the Israeli-US-KSA axis is failing now, and is likely to soon fail at an accerating rate, with considerable triggering impact from the Khashoggi murder.

Therefore, although the Khashoggi murder may well not lead directly to the downfall of the Saudi house, it is likely to strongly accelerate forces leading to a breakup of the US-Israeli-KSA axis in the Middle East, the unraveling of the US policy against Iran, and possibly an indirect downfall of the Saudi house IF the consequences so weakened the Saudis that that destabilizing domestic forces could no longer be contained. This would especially be so if Turkey displaces them as the world Islamic leader.

I didn't really offer a viable or coherent argument to you on the phone, so I wrote this to try and clarify (to you) my thinking.

Please remember that World War One, an event that led, within six years, to a new world allignment and overthrowing of no less than four empires (three of which had stood for centuries), was triggered by two prominent murders in Sarajevo.