patrick.net

The Furman Center for Real Estate at New York University publishes an annual State of New York City's Housing and Neighborhoods Report. Its 2015 report shows that an average of only 300 properties were foreclosed and re-possessed each year in New York City by the lender from 2011 to 2014. This in a city where 635,359 pre-foreclosure notices have been sent to deadbeats since early 2010. Its latest report for 2017 showed that the annual number of default notices filed in NYC has been declining every year since 2013 to just 10,000 in 2017.

The inescapable truth is that for eight years, mortgage servicers have foreclosed on exceptionally few long-term delinquent homeowners in New York City and Long Island. ...

The trouble is that all data providers which claim to have delinquency figures are dependent on the numbers they obtain from the mortgage servicers — which are their clients. Seven years of digging for reliable data have taught me that numbers from the servicers are extremely inaccurate and often incomplete.

It is evident that in early 2016, 10 major metros that had deadbeat problems with their non-agency securitized loans all had serious delinquency rates of 23% or higher. I am confident that the delinquency rate for those major metros that suffered significant housing collapses is almost certainly much higher than widely believed.