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What Happens If All the People Who Disapprove of Trump Vote For a Democrat ?


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2019 Feb 23, 5:41pm   1,116 views  11 comments

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Presidential approval numbers are often used to predict re-election chances. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump stands at 42.6 percent, which is better than it was during the government shutdown, but still doesn’t bode well for him.

That polling question is usually tracked at the national level, which gives us an overall picture of the president’s performance, but isn’t that helpful when it comes to how it will play out in the electoral college. That is why Gallup’s recent release of Trump’s job approval rating by states is worth taking a look at.



The president’s job approval rating is 50 percent or above in 17 states, which would account for a combined total of only 102 electoral votes. I thought it would be interesting to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he’d win in states where his job approval was higher than 45 percent. Here’s what the electoral map would look like under those circumstances.



States in pink would be the so-called “battlegrounds” where Trump’s approval rating is between 46-49 percent. The total number of electoral votes would be exactly the same if you give Trump states where his disapproval level is lower than 50 percent.

This is all just for fun right now, because the election is still almost two years away and there isn’t a direct correlation between job approval rating and votes. Nevertheless, it’s still interesting to note that Trump has a significantly higher job approval rating in Ohio (48 percent) than he does in Texas (41 percent) or Georgia (44 percent).

In the end, if the people who don’t approve of Trump’s job performance vote for the Democrat in 2020, we’d see as close to a landslide as we’re going to get under current circumstances.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/02/22/what-happens-if-people-who-disapprove-of-trump-vote-for-a-democrat/

#2020 #Elections #Trump #Deomcrat

Comments 1 - 11 of 11        Search these comments

1   lostand confused   2019 Feb 23, 6:09pm  

Then we become Venezuela-the dum socilaists think we will be some utopia-soviet style gulags are what is coming.
2   MrMagic   2019 Feb 23, 6:21pm  

They did that in 2016, what happened? Is Hillary President yet?
3   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 23, 6:35pm  

I think the MSM will give Socialist a 98% chance of winning at 9AM on Election Day 2020.
4   Shaman   2019 Feb 23, 6:55pm  

In the end, people will say to themselves “things have been going very well over the last four years. I don’t want to take a chance on a socialist right now and possibly make everything worse.”
Then they’ll vote for the incumbent.
They almost always do.
Upgrade that to “always” if the economy and foreign affairs seem to be going well.

Get used to orange man. He’s your daddy for six more years!
5   MrMagic   2019 Feb 23, 7:48pm  

Kakistocracy says
In the end, if the people who don’t approve of Trump’s job performance vote for the Democrat in 2020, we’d see as close to a landslide as we’re going to get under current circumstances.


Based on the trend line and comparing Trump to Obama at the same time, and quoting 538, which has been spectacularly WRONG about Trump the whole time, This story is just more severe TDS.




Notice Trump is 5 points HIGHER than Obama at the same point in their terms..

Oops...
6   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2019 Feb 23, 8:32pm  

I remember this chart from 2016. It didn't work out exactly that way. Most America isn't Bay Area.
7   mell   2019 Feb 23, 9:29pm  

Lol 538. All mainstream media will have Dems poll at 99%. What else is new
8   mell   2019 Feb 23, 9:30pm  

Because any poll not immensely favoring the left is rayscyst!!
9   anonymous   2019 Feb 24, 4:08am  

To my adoring fans for comments 2,5,6,7,8 and 9 - just wow, really really swell to be recognized again.

Wish I could see who each one is to offer a individual thanks but alas the "feature" is working this morning so it will have to be a group thing



There is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.
10   anonymous   2019 Feb 24, 4:10am  

Quigley says
They almost always do.


Unless the economy happens to stop circling the drain and goes down into it which is starting to look more likely as each month passes by now..

Trump is better than Pence - as I have mentioned before Pence actually knows his way around the political machine and is much more dangerous and sinister than Trump. Trump is a tool, humorous to a degree but Pence and McConnell together would be opening the doors to the Black Hole of Calcutta or worse...

Good comedy is hard to come by and the public is being treated to a daily show at no cost - if one does not count the damage to the environment, foreign relations, the farmers, autos (getting ready to make its debut), overall economy which is getting really iffy (stock market does not indicate the health of the economy), just so many other little day to day things but then most here have children and grandchildren to help clean up the mess (with their tax dollars) their parents voted into office in November of 2018
11   rdm   2019 Feb 24, 10:46am  

MrMagic says
Notice Trump is 5 points HIGHER than Obama at the same point in their terms..


And what poll is this from that has Trump at nearly 60% approval in the beginning of his term? Does it start with an R?
In actuality polls shy of two years out are meaningless. At one point G. H. Bush had a nearly 90% approval and Clinton beat him. But Trump's big problem electorially is that there are no significant states Clinton won that he has any realistic chance at winning. Where as several of the States Trump won Mich. Wis. Penn. Fl. Oh. NC and AZ are realistically winnable by a Biden type Dem. Trump can and may win but only them Dems will make that possible.

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