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Why Is Trump a Tariff Man?


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2019 Dec 5, 8:29pm   5,536 views  70 comments

by marcus   ➕follow (6)   💰tip   ignore  

Why Is Trump a Tariff Man?

Good read for those with an open mind.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/opinion/trump-trade-tariffs.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The truth is that even economists who opposed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs are surprised by how badly they’re working out. The most commonly given explanation for these bad results is that Trumpian tariff policy is creating a lot of uncertainty, which is giving businesses a strong incentive to postpone any plans they might have for building new factories and adding jobs.

In that case, however, why doesn’t Trump do what the markets keep wrongly expecting him to do, and call it quits? His continuing tariff obsession seems especially strange given growing evidence that it’s hurting him politically.

It’s important to realize that Trumpian protectionism wasn’t a response to a groundswell of public opinion. As best as I can tell from the endless series of interviews with white guys in diners — who are, we all know, the only Americans who matter — these voters are driven more by animosity toward immigrants and the sense that snooty liberals look down on them than by trade policy.

And public opinion seems to have become far less protectionist even as Trump has raised tariffs, with the percentage of Americans saying that free trade agreements are a good thing as high as it’s ever been.

So Trump’s trade war is losing, not gaining, support. And one recent analysis finds that it was a factor hurting Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for a significant number of lost congressional seats.

Nevertheless, Trump persists. Why?

One answer is that Trump has long had a fixation on the idea that tariffs are the answer to America’s problems, and he’s not the kind of man who reconsiders his prejudices in the light of evidence. But there’s also something else: U.S. trade law offers Trump more freedom of action — more ability to do whatever he wants — than any other policy area.

The basic story is that long ago — in fact, in the aftermath of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 — Congress deliberately limited its own role in trade policy. Instead, it gave the president the power to negotiate trade deals with other countries, which would then face up-or-down votes without amendments.

It was always clear, however, that this system needed some flexibility to respond to events. So the executive branch was given the power to impose temporary tariffs under certain conditions: import surges, threats to national security, unfair practices by foreign governments. The idea was that nonpartisan experts would determine whether and when these conditions existed, and the president would then decide whether to act.

This system worked well for many years. It turned out, however, to be extremely vulnerable to someone like Trump, for whom everything is partisan and expertise is a four-letter word. Trump’s tariff justifications have often been self-evidently absurd — seriously, who imagines that imports of Canadian steel threaten U.S. national security? But there’s no obvious way to stop him from imposing tariffs whenever he feels like it.

And there’s also no obvious way to stop his officials from granting individual businesses tariff exemptions, supposedly based on economic criteria but in fact as a reward for political support. Tariff policy isn’t the only arena in which Trump can practice crony capitalism — federal contracting is looking increasingly scandalous — but tariffs are especially ripe for exploitation.

So that’s why Trump is a Tariff Man: Tariffs let him exercise unconstrained power, rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. Anyone imagining that he’s going to change his ways and start behaving responsibly is living in a fantasy world.

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1   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Dec 5, 8:47pm  

Tariffs are resulting in the exact opposite the DC/Corporate Brainacs insisted would happen: A big recession.

Instead, unemployment is the lowest in 50 years, all-time stock market highs, and a strong economy with manufacturing roaring back like a lion on steroids.

Seems like all the Georgetown Profs aren't very knowledgable and, since I have an open mind, I notice reality isn't conforming to their chalkboard theories and public remonstrances.
2   Hircus   2019 Dec 5, 8:57pm  

NoCoupForYou says
Tariffs are resulting in the exact opposite the DC/Corporate Brainacs insisted would happen: A big recession.


Bingo.

It's funny how the article says "The truth is that even economists who opposed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs are surprised by how badly they’re working out. "

They say 2 things
1) The tariffs are having really bad effects
2) the effects are worse than even his worst critics predicted

Both points are disingenuous, and designed to play on an ignorant reader who doesn't have any idea what's happening.

The very same Journalists and media sources told us the sky would quickly fall,explode, and then take the world into a period of unprecedented turmoil. I'm still waiting.
3   mell   2019 Dec 5, 10:07pm  

Trade deficit lowest in 16 months. Thanks to tariffs and the maga economy. Sometimes they're necessary. Trump was right again.
4   komputodo   2019 Dec 6, 4:43am  

when I see NY Times, I don't even bother.
5   Onvacation   2019 Dec 6, 5:36am  

marcus says
So that’s why Trump is a Tariff Man: Tariffs let him exercise unconstrained power, rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. Anyone imagining that he’s going to change his ways and start behaving responsibly is living in a fantasy world.

Why do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?

TDS.
6   HeadSet   2019 Dec 6, 6:01am  

Why do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?

+1000. Exploiting labor and opening new coal fired plants is OK with lefties if the plants are opened by leftist/Communist countries.
7   marcus   2019 Dec 6, 6:26am  

:
The trend in interest rates and unemployment has continued the last few years in spite of Trump, not becasue of Trump.

Where you see cause and effect, the reality based folks see lost opportunities and massive deficits.
8   HeadSet   2019 Dec 6, 6:29am  

lost opportunities

Yes, the lost opportunities to continue using cheap illegal immigrant labor and lost opportunities to continue outsourcing production to slave labor China.
9   marcus   2019 Dec 6, 6:34am  

mell says
Trade deficit lowest in 16 months


Not sure what you're looking at. A lower number (larger negative number) means a higher deficit.





No biggee, well just print money to pay the farmers and let south America sell China the soybeans they need.
10   marcus   2019 Dec 6, 7:05am  

HeadSet says
Yes, the lost opportunities to continue using cheap illegal immigrant labor and lost opportunities to continue outsourcing production to slave labor China.



I was thinking of lost opportunities to invest in modern manufacturing here. But who's going to do that with a self interested crony capitalist throwing his weight around in a random and ineffective fashion.
11   mell   2019 Dec 6, 7:41am  

Trade deficit is at a 1.5 year low due to the tariffs amid a booming economy. Some tariffs are simply necessary, most countries have them in one form or the other, the EU has been imposing tariffs on US goods ti the tune of 20% or more forever. lol get a grip.
12   HeadSet   2019 Dec 6, 8:03am  

I was thinking of lost opportunities to invest in modern manufacturing here.

And you do not think tariffs on China will encourage more manufacturing in the US? Take away the financial advantage of slave labor and lax pollution laws, and then why not manufacture in the US and save on transportation costs?
13   mell   2019 Dec 6, 8:45am  

HeadSet says
I was thinking of lost opportunities to invest in modern manufacturing here.

And you do not think tariffs on China will encourage more manufacturing in the US? Take away the financial advantage of slave labor and lax pollution laws, and then why not manufacture in the US and save on transportation costs?


Right ideally you won't need them much but too many people in the US are hooked on cheap junk from China.
14   zzyzzx   2019 Dec 6, 8:51am  

marcus says
Why Is Trump a Tariff Man?


Why do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?

Still waiting on an answer for this one.
15   Shaman   2019 Dec 6, 9:07am  

marcus says
mell says
Trade deficit lowest in 16 months


Not sure what you're looking at. A lower number (larger negative number) means a higher deficit.





No biggee, well just print money to pay the farmers and let south America sell China the soybeans they need.


So you post a graph that goes up to 4 years ago? And it’s not even deficit? Marcus fail.
16   Shaman   2019 Dec 6, 9:09am  



@marcus THIS is a relevant chart.
Take notes.
There will be an exam.
17   theoakman   2019 Dec 6, 9:15am  

China has been subsidizing their industries to the point that it's cheaper to import a product than the domestic producer can purchase raw materials to even make that product. This makes it absolutely essential to tariff because it makes domestic production impossible otherwise. The folly about anyone trying to make the counterargument is that they don't take any issue with existing subsidies or tariffs other countries use against us...

Basically, if you invent an industry or product, China will steal it, subsidize it to lower costs beyond your ability to even purchase raw materials, put you out of business, and then they get all the profits.

They keep screaming about Soybean farmers, when in reality, the other 99% of industries that have may benefit are ignored. I have no problem with supplementing farmers for the losses they incur as a result of these tariffs. It's a cost we need to take for moving in the right direction for ALL INDUSTRIES. Every counterargument I've seen against the tariffs easily fails to truly look at the entire equation.
18   theoakman   2019 Dec 6, 9:20am  

This system worked well for many years.

It did...until the 90s when they decided to drop just about every tariff. The system has been awful for the past 25 years...and if you think it worked well...you are delusional.
19   socal2   2019 Dec 6, 9:35am  

HeadSet says
And you do not think tariffs on China will encourage more manufacturing in the US? Take away the financial advantage of slave labor and lax pollution laws, and then why not manufacture in the US and save on transportation costs?


Anecdotal only - but the company I work at is moving some of our manufacturing back to the US.

In addition to the economic climate, we discovered a few months ago the Chinese cheaters totally ripped off a few of our products and made cheap-knock offs. Their stuff even looks almost identical to ours. They are not even trying to hide their thievery.
20   mell   2019 Dec 6, 9:57am  

socal2 says
HeadSet says
And you do not think tariffs on China will encourage more manufacturing in the US? Take away the financial advantage of slave labor and lax pollution laws, and then why not manufacture in the US and save on transportation costs?


Anecdotal only - but the company I work at is moving some of our manufacturing back to the US.

In addition to the economic climate, we discovered a few months ago the Chinese cheaters totally ripped off a few of our products and made cheap-knock offs. Their stuff even looks almost identical to ours. They are not even trying to hide their thievery.


They are very good at it. Actually for wommyn stuff some recommend it since no purse it worth a couple thousand dollars just because some bs designer put their logo on it. I heard the girlz can't notice a difference between the well made knock offs and the original, except for they cost $200 not $2000. But yeah, that's how they operate, but orange! man! bad!
21   Bd6r   2019 Dec 6, 10:12am  

socal2 says
Anecdotal only - but the company I work at is moving some of our manufacturing back to the US.

In addition to the economic climate, we discovered a few months ago the Chinese cheaters totally ripped off a few of our products and made cheap-knock offs. Their stuff even looks almost identical to ours. They are not even trying to hide their thievery.

This happens all the time. They built up their pharma industry by stealing from US Pharma, which stupidly outsourced a lot of work to China.
I am kinda torn on tariffs. Normally they would be a bad idea from economic freedom point of view, but what else can we do to deter outright stealing by Chinese companies?
22   Goran_K   2019 Dec 6, 10:55am  

I wish all these stupid academics, do-nothings, bloviating tenured Piled Higher and DEEPER assholes, would shut the fuck up about the economy. They don't know shit.

If we had listened to such geniuses like lefty hero Paul Krugman, or other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.



I don't have fuck you money, but combined with my investments in precious metals, couple of properties, and how hot the market has been, I'm planning to retire with nearly $5,000,000+ to spend in retirement, with stupid low living expenses (I even grow my own veggies now and never buy produce from the store).

The economy is red fucking hot. Asians and whites have near 2% unemployment, and blacks and Hispanics are both sub 5%.People are working, buying lots of iPhones and Samsung TVs, and in general we're in a mini-golden age of economic mobility when democrats were trying to tell anyone who would listen over the past 3 years that a recession was going to crush us.

China is suffering (and most of asia as well). FDI has fallen off a cliff in Asia, and Domestic loans have skyrocketed as China tries to stabilize their own firms. The tariffs are kicking China's ass badly. They'll make a deal or suffer a shrinking economy, their choice, lots of other emerging markets looking to steal that FDI cash.

Anyway, when I want accurate information from some derp derp PhD, I'll ask them about how they keep their 22 year old beige Volvo running after all these years while I discuss actual economics with the people who didn't have to resort to teaching to make a living.
23   Goran_K   2019 Dec 6, 11:00am  

zzyzzx says
Why do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?

Still waiting on an answer for this one.


Because most lefty assholes would rather we weaken the US economy and even go into a recession so "Trump loses".

Fucking fags.
24   SunnyvaleCA   2019 Dec 6, 11:05am  

The truth is that even economists who opposed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs are surprised by how badly they’re working out.

20 years from now history will record that Trump and his advisors (and the US military) realized that China is trying to take over the world... first they'll buy / steal a bunch of 3rd-world countries in Africa, then they'll expand to South America, and from there the western world. Instead of war, fighting, bailing out indebted African nations, etc, etc, etc, Trump's tariffs — brilliantly — crash China's economy and thwart their expansionist plans.

or...
20 years from now history will record that Trump and his advisors realized that China cares nothing about pollution, human rights, strip-mining the world, (and global warming, if you're into that sort of thing), etc. Other than a war, what to do? Trump's tariffs — brilliantly — crash China's economy and reduce that problem.
25   RWSGFY   2019 Dec 6, 12:36pm  

mell says
HeadSet says
I was thinking of lost opportunities to invest in modern manufacturing here.

And you do not think tariffs on China will encourage more manufacturing in the US? Take away the financial advantage of slave labor and lax pollution laws, and then why not manufacture in the US and save on transportation costs?


Right ideally you won't need them much but too many people in the US are hooked on cheap junk from China.


Here's a quote from a yesterday's NPR show on the thrift/reuse industry:

"... increasingly, what we see in the United States in particular is that the quality of the stuff that people are acquiring — because we're acquiring more every year — is declining.

So all that stuff that's filling up these storage units isn't necessarily what my grandmother would call "merchandise." It's stuff that's going to go in the donation door at a thrift store — and ultimately going to find its way into a dumpster or a recycling bin. It's not going to be reused."

Fuck China.
26   Bd6r   2019 Dec 6, 12:52pm  

Liberal_in_blackface says
t's stuff that's going to go in the donation door at a thrift store — and ultimately going to find its way into a dumpster or a recycling bin. It's not going to be reused."


So crap from China causes global warming and climate change. It should be banned tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!
27   RWSGFY   2019 Dec 6, 1:58pm  

rd6B says
Liberal_in_blackface says
t's stuff that's going to go in the donation door at a thrift store — and ultimately going to find its way into a dumpster or a recycling bin. It's not going to be reused."


So crap from China causes global warming and climate change. It should be banned tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!


More from that NPR show:

"On the declining quality of electronic goods

If you think back say, 20, 25 years ago, a television that was 10 years old was something that could be reused. It could be refurbished and reused. ... They were very heavy, but they were also very robust. But these days, you can go and you can buy yourself a flat-panel television at an electronics retailer. I saw it over the recent Black Friday period and you can buy that flat panel for $150. But in a sense, you get what you pay for. You get a cheap television that maybe will last three years.
When you go to storage units and see these flat-panel TVs sitting in them, somebody may have [thought], "I'm just going to store it here for a couple of years." By the time it's opened up and people say it's time to donate the stuff, that's not merchandise. That's something that's going to go to an electronics recycler. And that kind of phenomenon is increasing. The volume of stuff is increasing, but the volume of good stuff among the stuff, if you will, is declining."
28   mell   2019 Dec 6, 2:46pm  

Goran_K says
I wish all these stupid academics, do-nothings, bloviating tenured Piled Higher and DEEPER assholes, would shut the fuck up about the economy. They don't know shit.

If we had listened to such geniuses like lefty hero Paul Krugman, or other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald. I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.



I don't have fuck you money, but combined with my investments in precious metals, couple of properties, and how hot the market has been, I'm planning to retire with nearly $5,000,000+ to spend in retirement, with stupid low living expenses (I even grow my own veggies now and never buy produce from the store).


Agreed. Krugsheister is one of the worst. The last 2 years I made more money than in the all the Obummer years combined. Part of it was good and plentiful research, but at least 25-50%+ was the Trump economy. The kids are completely deluded by the leftoids, instead of putting on vagina hats and marching through the streets like deranged idiots they should go work hard and save and invest as much as they can on the side, so they are prepped for retirement. And no, socialism/communism won't rescue them. Trump gave them the Golden years and they think they must rezist because fucking gender pronouns. Today's jobs report was fantastic, lowest UE since the 60s - get on the MAGA train and make some money in the Trump economy which has been on fire!
29   marcus   2019 Dec 7, 12:41am  

mell says
Trade deficit is at a 1.5 year low due to the tariffs amid a booming economy.


Still don;t know what the fuck you're talking about. Did Fox News tell you that ? It's fake news !

Reality:

marcus says





Low is bad here. It's a large negative number. A large deficit. What planet are you on ?

I'm sure that thoughtful deficits have their place, but not the random chaotic destabilizing stuff Trump tries to pull. "Trade Wars are easy to win." Yeah, right.
30   Booger   2019 Dec 7, 4:01am  

Liberal_in_blackface says
Fuck China.


China is asshoe!
31   Goran_K   2019 Dec 7, 6:56am  

mell says
Goran_K says
I wish all these stupid academics, do-nothings, bloviating tenured Piled Higher and DEEPER assholes, would shut the fuck up about the economy. They don't know shit.

If we had listened to such geniuses like lefty hero Paul Krugman, or other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald. I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.



I don't have fuck you money, but combined with my investments in precious metals, couple of properties, and how hot the market has been, I'm planning to retire with nearly $5,000,000+ to spend in retirement, with stupid low living expenses (I even grow my own veggies now and never buy produce from the store).


Agreed. Krugsheister is one of the worst. The last 2 years I made more money ...


Precisely. Most of these people are Bernie type socialists anyway and wouldn’t work even if they had the opportunity. Lazy government theft supporters who would rather Uncle Bernie give them”free shit” stolen from the productive sector of the work force.

Gotta love Krugman though, telling people of a huge recession ready to hit in late 2016. Then the market goes on basically a 36 month straight hot streak (with a slight slowdown in Fall 2018 due to trade war worries).

Now no one is worried about a trade war because China is the only one getting fucked. The rest of us are making money hand over hand like crazy.

The “resist types” are still crying over 2016, I’m giddy looking at what I’m going to invest in next during Trumps 2nd term. So much opportunity out there.
32   WookieMan   2019 Dec 7, 7:02am  

marcus says
Low is bad here. It's a large negative number. A large deficit. What planet are you on ?

Looks like a chart where Democrats look to send jobs overseas? I could be wrong. Not that Bush promoted it as an agenda, but this is a pretty damning graph for Democrats as it crashed when Clinton got in office and same with Obama (after a couple years). Foreign fiscal policy doesn't happen overnight. It takes years for decisions to make a dent in that graph.

So reading the graph, Democrats are bad for trade for the US. Thanks for showing us this.
33   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Dec 7, 9:00am  

Goran_K says
other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.




You should make the dollar amount flash v so I can send it to him on tweety
34   marcus   2019 Dec 7, 10:51am  

WookieMan says
but this is a pretty damning graph for Democrats as it crashed when Clinton got in office and same with Obama (after a couple years). Foreign fiscal policy doesn't happen overnight. I


With republicans it's always hard to tell whether they are lying, or just stupid.
35   Goran_K   2019 Dec 7, 11:47am  

NoCoupForYou says
Goran_K says
other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.




You should make the dollar amount flash v so I can send it to him on tweety


Democrats in a nutshell.


Notice the date. Even if this guy had only $100,000 in the market total, how much money did this stupid Democrat fuck leave on the table because “ReSiST!!!”
36   Shaman   2019 Dec 7, 11:49am  

28,000 now, a 155% gain.
37   Tenpoundbass   2019 Dec 7, 11:50am  

Ass, Grass or Cash nobody rides for Free!
38   Shaman   2019 Dec 7, 11:52am  

marcus says

Low is bad here. It's a large negative number. A large deficit. What planet are you on ?


Yes our net exports were definitely declining under Obama. Your chart goes up to the end of his blighted second term.
39   Goran_K   2019 Dec 7, 11:56am  

Shaman says
28,000 now, a 155% gain.


lol

Imagine if he just left that in a dividend paying index fund, let alone putting the entire $100,000 into AAPL in the low 100s.

Trump is making these guys look stupid as fuck.
40   Shaman   2019 Dec 7, 11:59am  

Goran_K says
Fucking fags.


That’s what they do. Mostly with each other.

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