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Michio Kaku and Ray Kurzweil predict next ten years

By tovarichpeter follow tovarichpeter   2019 Dec 11, 12:09pm 366 views   10 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


https://www.newworldai.com/the-singularity-with-michio-kaku-and-ray-kurzweil/


The two geniuses, among the very smartest people in the world, talk about how soon computer intelligence will soon surpass us and the possible outcomes of this.
1   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 11, 1:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Self driving cars and air taxis were supposed be the norm by now as well.
2   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 11, 2:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Don't forget that computers were to have solved human language translation ... by about 1960!
3   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 11, 2:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

tovarichpeter says
among the very smartest people in the world


Sorry, but at this point in time ... I believe that I'm actually smarter than either Kurzweil or Kaku.

Sure, they did well during their heyday but for the most part, they know only how tech works but don't understand reality and how things work in it. I mean Kurzweil is still talking about reverse engineering the human brain vis-a-vis Moore's Law when that's not what's needed to automate a lot of jobs out there.

For now, AI and expert systems will be used to replace white collar jobs where the salaries are too high for the MBA-ologists, who run these companies. And thus, the application of so-called AI will be to eliminate jobs for auditors, actuaries, financial analysts, paralegals, junior law associates, etc. That's the first wave, it's about limiting the power of so-called white collar jobs where for the most part, the work is done via obfuscation of the actual business rules, etc. In reality, many of these jobs don't really require a college education.

And sure, in the decades ahead, perhaps generalized AI becomes real (whether or not it's related to CPU or GPU speed & their respective S-curves) and computers can enhance and modify themselves then yes, we're in Kurzweil land but still then, we're still dealing with reality.
4   just_adhom_preaching   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 11, 3:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

AI has been creating jobs where I work. It's been awhile but I've seen Mr. K walking around in our building before. As well as his side kick Pete.
5   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 11, 3:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

HeadSet says
Self driving cars and air taxis were supposed be the norm by now as well.


Those are just starting to get to their launching points. I’m hearing Anecdotal stories from people about seeing drivers conked our behind the wheel on the freeway. And other stories about drunk Tesla owners who told the car to go home and woke up in the driveway.
Considering how awful human drivers can be, and how fucking OFTEN people drive when drunk, this can only be a good thing.
6   Rin   ignore (8)   2019 Dec 11, 3:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
And other stories about drunk Tesla owners who told the car to go home and woke up in the driveway.


Clearly, this is California and not New England to the Mid-Atlantic where the adverse weather conditions would most likely render those controls less effective resulting in some sort of collision.
7   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 11, 3:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RK only claims of fame is understanding exponentials. That is how he made good predictions in the past.
Unfortunately so far AI has been VERY linear.
Deep learning for example is basically a single invention. Some holdouts in a forgotten branch of the field stumbled into a method that worked. There is no rapid progress. Just a single method for supervised learning (even with variants of it).
Thus when AI does happen, it will be a surprise for most people.
8   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 11, 7:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

And advanced robotics/automation should have given us the 2-hour workday long before now as well.

The fly in the ointment of a shorter work week is accumulated debt. The efficiencies of technology may make production affordable to live well on just two days wages, but that debt service will require you to work the rest of the week. If people were more responsible with taking on loans, we would already be at a 4 day work week. Doible whammy because debtors are really hurt by "deflation."
9   RC2006   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 11, 8:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The dumbest are the ones doing the most breeding, idocracy wins.
10   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 11, 10:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

RC2006 says
The dumbest are the ones doing the most breeding, idocracy wins.

Yes, I believe that could be true. Depends. Read about Global 2000. Anyway, if left to the status quo, people, just like money, chase out good. Example: bad money (fiat) chases out good money (gold/silver).

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