patrick.net

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Bay-Area-will-be-nation-s-coolest-housing-14945286.php

Maybe we can just communicate via sending links to each other?

From the original post link:

Good news for anyone hoping to a buy a home in the Bay Area this year: Prices are expected to come down.

Real estate tracker Zillow asked experts to predict where the market will go, and as a whole, the group thinks prices will rise slightly across the country.

In the Bay Area, experts believe the market will soften, especially in San Jose and San Francisco. Specifically, 64% think the San Francisco housing market will underperform, and 61% think San Jose will move lower, largely because of already high prices but also because people are cashing in and moving to other cities. ...

Meanwhile, home prices in San Francisco dipped slightly in October, compared with a year ago, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

San Francisco home prices slipped 0.4 percent compared with October 2018.

From the second link:

The Bay Area earned the lowest score of negative 40; only 24% said it will outperform versus 64% who think it will underperform. The next coolest markets were San Jose (minus 38), Los Angeles (minus 35), Cincinnati (minus 33) and Sacramento (minus 31).

Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley, agreed that the Bay Area will lag the nation this year. ...

Nationwide prices rose 3.3 percent in October. The highest gain among 20 cities in a composite index was 5.8 percent in Phoenix.

San Francisco was the only one of 20 cities in the composite index to see an annual decline in prices in October. ...

Rosen expects a further correction this year, especially in Silicon Valley. ...

He pointed out that mortgage rates have risen about a quarter- to half-percentage point from their lows in August and September.

Also, the tax law changes that took effect in 2018 have increased the after-tax cost of owning a home. The law capped the previously unlimited itemized deduction for all state and local income, property and sales taxes at $10,000 combined. “Your property tax, even though constrained by Proposition 13, for many people (is) not fully deductible,” Rosen said. “A lot of people felt good because they were protected (from large property tax increases) by Prop. 13. Even with Prop. 13 still in place, many people have tax bills twice as big” as $10,000.

The tax law also limited the mortgage interest deduction to interest on $750,000 in debt, down from $1 million previously.

He added that the trend of people moving out of California to cheaper states “is going to get bigger in the next five years,” because of higher taxes, higher home prices and growing congestion.

California lost an estimated 197,600 people to net domestic migration during the year ended July 1, according to the state Department of Finance. That is the number of people who left California for other states minus the number who moved here from other states. If you include people moving into the state from other countries, California lost 39,500 residents due to net migration. (Births still caused the population to grow since they exceeded deaths.)

Other data show that California is losing the most residents to Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Oregon.

Sorry, I'm not seeing it. I track 95123 and the delusion is still at peak force.

Also, the tax law changes that took effect in 2018 have increased the after-tax cost of owning a home. The law capped the previously unlimited itemized deduction for all state and local income, property and sales taxes at $10,000 combined. “Your property tax, even though constrained by Proposition 13, for many people (is) not fully deductible,” Rosen said. “A lot of people felt good because they were protected (from large property tax increases) by Prop. 13. Even with Prop. 13 still in place, many people have tax bills twice as big” as $10,000.

It really all depends. People making enough money to actually pay the mortgage on a $2MM shack are most likely hit by the Alternate Minimum Tax and so weren't able to take $40k in state and local tax writeoffs. The 2018 changes in how AMT is calculated are quite generous and it actually saved me some money.